willbcocks wrote:The odds of our getting Harden are equally poor. Both are scenarios where we would be stealing a young, good player, who everyone else in the league wants, and who the original team has rights over. How many times, if ever, has this happened? But it's still worth pursuing, even if the odds are low, whereas I don't really see the point in pursuing Anderson. He's good but not THAT good, and I would like to see how Vesley plays next year before declaring PF a gaping whole. SG and SF are clearly dire needs.
I agree entirely with this. I have no problem with us making a run at these guys. I think we'd be fools to not pursue them, especially if we get a ton of lottery love (Davis) or at least don't get hosed (land the #2 or #3 pick). In that scenario we start to look attractive. Forget imagined lineups, just put this one out there for Free Agents to look at:
PG: Wall
SG: Crawford
SF: Singleton
PF/C: Nene, Seraphin, Booker, Vesely
Draftee: Davis, MKG, Beal, Drummond, or Robinson (if we land at slot 2).
In this scenario we've basically got quality in the frontcourt, and a great PG, or quality in the backcourt, with only a major hole at SF.
We look a bit more attractive. Do I think we'll win over one of these guys? No, and I really, really think the smart play was and is to deal assets to grab a pick in the 10-20 zone so that we can land either the 2 or the 3 we need in addition with whatever we draft with our own pick. There are a bucketload of good 2's and 3's (and for that matter, bigs) that will be great value in that zone, and that would make far more sense, and are FAR more attainable than Batum or Anderson.
I think the strategy should be to deal an excess big or Crawford, or both, or one and picks (we have the 32nd or 33rd, and the Dallas pick has risen a good deal, going from 51st to 53rd a few weeks ago, up four or five slots to 48th now. If we packaged 32, 48, and a player, we could probably get into the high teens where we'd have access to some good shooters, or decent speculative bigs. That to me is the play. Get the superstar, or the very good player with our pick, then go after help at the 2 or 3 via a trade in the draft. You'll be looking at:
1. PJ3: the best value in the draft in the right situation.
2.T. Jones-I think he's entered the top 10 now, and wont be available.
3. J. Lamb-i think his combine #'s will allow him to climg much higher.
4. A. Rivers-somebody will trade up for him.
5. T. Ross-A fine speculative target
6. J. Taylor-Has fans around here.
7. Wroten-A potential star, but probably get trapped in the same issue we have Wall/Crawford, ball dominant guards that can't max their value on our team.
8. D. Waiters: one of the best values in the draft, especially if he doesnt go top 12-15
9. E. Fournier-The best euro in the draft, but needs to improve his shooting.
10. D. Lamb-Could be just what we need.
10b. D. Green-One of those college studs who will either be a bust, or will have people shaking their heads for passing on him a few years from now.
At the end of the day, the targets for us in such a scenario, if the players fell as expected, would be Ross, Taylor, Lamb, Waiters or Fournier.
I agree in general, we should definitely pursue guys like Anderson, and Batum, but I also think we should plan for not getting them by targetting a trade up. When I look at the draft, I see huge value between 7-22 or thereabouts. I see a huge drop off around slot 25, where it turns into a typical garbage draft, where CCJ will be scrounging for guys with little love that actually carve out nuggets of NBA careers, but who, in the end, are simply placeholders on a roster till you find something better. I'd like to avoid wasting assets in a draft which has SO SO SO much value in that 7-22 area, by trading parts (our 2nd rounders) and a piece (one of our extra players) to get someone who could actually become a go to asset for us, instead of just a body. There are a ton of players in this draft in that 7-22 area, a lot of the guys between say 12-22 or so, would normally be going in a typical draft between 7 and 15. It's HUGE value. I will be rather incessed if we will have wasted this opportunity, particularly when its got such a better chance of working, than going Golden State Warriors pipe dream, and throwing away an asset (like Lin) for a never going to happen dream like DeAndre Jordan.
Me likey.
