Predict the Wizards Record '14-'15 season

[thricethefun]

I'll stick with 49 wins and 3rd in the Eastern Conference.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I just noticed that me and CCJ have the same predictions for wins and playoff seeding. Not sure how to take that.

I have had a real tough year. Maybe it's me, tontoz.

I am not seeing closers or guys who create offense. This team is going to lose a lot of close, low - scoring games. Ariza's corner threes and his team first selflessness will be missed.

Unless a very reliable second scorer turns up John Wall is going to have to be the hero most nights. None of the additions to the Wizards run well with Wall. Pierce is old. Rice and Porter are not going to outplay veteran counterparts. I am predicting less success than almost all other predictions mainly because I don't think Pierce, Porter, or Rice will step up enough to make the Wizards elite.

Sent from my SGH-M919 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[hands11]

For those lowering projections, just a reminder. We have a very favorable schedule all the way until mid Dec. It hard to judge them from preseason since they never really had everyone ready at the same time but they schedule is in our favor.

A nice 5-0 start is still in reach. And with a little luck, 9-0 or 8-1 or 7-2 is doable. That would limit how much we miss having Beal eating up 2 weeks of the time he is expected out getting us to Nov 19th against DAL. He might even return for the next game after that. CLE game Nov 21.

This game was as close as they got. http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400583934

@MIA
@ORL - no VO anymore. Out with a face fracture. No Frye sprained MCL
MIL - interesting young players but still so young.
@NYK
IND - no PG and probably want to tank this year. Losing early and often will be important
@TOR
@IND
DET
ORL
DAL Nov 19th (5 weeks of the 6 projected for Beal to return - cast off hand 10.22.14)
CLE Nov 21st
@MIL Nov 22nd
ATL
@CLE Nov 26th ( Beal 6 week projected return date )
NO

DEC - Beal is targeting a late Nov return and Webby early Dec. Once they have those to back, they should be off to the races.

MIA
LAL
DEN
@BOS
BOS
@ORL
LAC
UT
MIN
@MIA
PHX
CHI
@NYK
BOS
@HOU
@DAL

New Years

Interesting. No PHI games yet. Lucky for them they get PHI twice in April

[Kanyewest]

For those lowering projections, just a reminder. We have a very favorable schedule all the way until mid Dec. It hard to judge them from preseason since they never really had everyone ready at the same time but they schedule is in our favor.

A nice 5-0 start is still in reach. And with a little luck, 9-0 or 8-1 or 7-2 is doable. That would limit how much we miss having Beal eating up 2 weeks of the time he is expected out getting us to Nov 19th against DAL. He might even return for the next game after that. CLE game Nov 21.

I hope you are right. As a Wizards fan I've been conditioned to believe that they will start out slow. I checked game logs since 1994, and from my count the Wizards have only been over .500 twice through 10 game.

[Hypnotizer]

Please sign me up. My number is:

Spoiler:

[FAH1223]

I'm having a bad feeling.

Too many pundits love us and some are even talking East Finals.

Some are even saying 50 wins.

I feel like the Wiz are going to flop and be a 7th seed.

[Rafael122]

Between the injuries and the lackadaisical play in the preseason, I'm going with 45 wins and 6th in the East.

[Benjammin]

45 wins and 5th seed please.

[JAR69]

49 wins and 4th, please.

[montestewart]

I have a feeling that this will be Seraphin's bust out season, where he finally puts it all together and shows the world what he can do. That should be good for one win.

I also think this is the season where the Wizards finally put it all together, make the giant leap forward, and show the world what they can do. That's why I'm sticking with 46 wins and 4th seed.

[hands11]

Ok. I just ran through the schedule and came up with 52 wins. 32-10 at home and 20-20 road

That makes sense because they were pretty much a 49 win team last year with a terrible bench and Randys poor coaching in regular season. And no playoff experience for Wall and Beal. They should be better this year.

52 win teams usually win more then .500 on the road so maybe a few more road wins that come at the expense of home loses but I think Paul Paul will having them protecting the home court a lot better this year so I expect a better home record.

So maybe there are a few more road wins and they are an over 52 win team. Maybe its just a rebalance of home and away record. Maybe its just homerism and they lose a few more. Tough call.

They did have another pretty poor preseason and didn't get a chance to mesh all the pieces. I still haven't seen how exactly Paul meshes in. And suspensions the first game. And while I like Otto a lot, they have to figure out how to mix him him still and it is his first full season. If Otto and Beal play huge, they could start to light it up.

52 wins or better is in reach. But they could lose the first one short handed and other miscellaneous piss will happen as they gel.

49 feels most comfortable but Im going with

50 Wins ... Down 2 from my initial prediction factoring in no Beal to start the year.

[dckingsfan]

I am moving down to 46 wins...

[Darko Miliminutes]

51 wins.

[LyricalRico]

In right before the buzzer - 46 wins, 4th in the East.

Additional explanation:

I started with a full-strength prediction of 49, and then subtracted 3 to account for extra losses in the first 6 weeks while Beal is out. They'll be around .500 for most of the year, and then finish strong in April to claim home court in the first round.

Let's get the season started! Go Wiz!

[Nivek]

When does the predictions window close? I have my analytic projection done, but was planning to get it up on the blog tomorrow.

[closg00]

When does the predictions window close? I have my analytic projection done, but was planning to get it up on the blog tomorrow.

Last year is was right before the start of the first game.

[payitforward]

I am at 58 wins, and I'm sticking with it. Why? Because last year we won 44 games, and I was the winner of this here shooting match. Hence, what I pick that's what we win -- and I want to win a lot of games, so I pick 58. I don't pick 60, only because I don't want people to think I'm greedy.

Actually, to be serious for a moment, although I did win this boy-howdy thingamajig last year, a look back at how I came up with my winning projection convinced me that I didn't know what I was talking about, and that any prediction I had made could only have won because of chance.

Through 53 games last year, we were 25-28 (I think... do I have that right? Near right anyway....). That was with the players we had when I made my prediction. Then Gooden and Miller came along. They both played well and made us more likely to win when they were on the floor. Even more importantly, their arrival coincided with some guys who had played terribly not playing at all (because traded) or playing little (because injured or their minutes were lost to the 2 new old guys). As a result, we became a much better team.

None of that could have been predicted, because it was all based on Gooden/Miller, and they couldn't have been predicted. Duh.

This year, now that we are one of the very oldest teams in the league, we go into the season with a bunch of guys who once again make prediction a bootless practice. Are Gooden/Miller going to have full seasons at the level they played when they came in fresh w/ 30 games left? Hope so, but, realistically, it seems unlikely. Do Humphries/Blair/Pierce make up, in minutes and productivity, what we lost when Ariza/Booker left? Hard to believe that, if only because Pierce is old, won't play more than 2K minutes, and wasn't as productive on either end last year as Ariza was. Humphries/Blair is preferable to Booker by some -- but not enough to close that gap I don't think.

There are wild cards in the other direction too, obviously -- Beal could start to hit his stride (he did *not* have a good regular season last year), Porter could be outstanding, ditto Rice, ditto... oops, that's it.

I can't figure it out. So... I pick 58 wins. I'm up there where the air is rare. Dig?

[LyricalRico]

Grantland leaning towards us finishing 3rd in the East:

This team is the best bet to snag the no. 3 spot in the East …

Washington Wizards

… especially so because the Wizards are without Bradley Beal for at least the first month or so of the season. Martell Webster is also hurt, leaving a lot of minutes for Otto Porter and Glen Rice Jr. — two guys with essentially zero NBA experience. The ouchies also force Paul Pierce to play as something like a full-time small forward, and chasing around speedy wings all season will tax the old guy’s legs.

The Wiz have the goods to ride this out, and they’ll be dangerous once they get their full complement. Their starting lineup destroyed opponents, and though Pierce can’t fly into transition corner 3s like Trevor Ariza, he can ease into different creases along the arc and create some one-on-one offense late in the shot clock.

Kris Humphries and DeJuan Blair offer more stability off the bench after the Wiz last season leaned on a Drew Gooden–Al Harrington pairing that felt like a novelty act — even when bench units featuring those guys, plus Beal and Professor Andre Miller, PhD, would go on giddy runs. A deeper big-man rotation is a must. The Wiz outscored opponents by 216 points in the 982 minutes when Nene and Marcin Gortat shared the floor and were a combined minus-112 in all other minutes, per NBA.com.

Humphries brings just enough rim protection to work as a backup center, and Pierce can slide to power forward when the Wiz need some spacing. Trade a few pull-up 2-pointers for rim attacks and catch-and-shoot jumpers, and the Wiz can craft the kind of offense that will really make them dangerous. John Wall has the skill set to engineer that kind of change.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-r ... cavaliers/

[dandridge 10]

My mind says that I should drop my win total by a least 2-3 to account for the lack of Beal and Martell to start the season. I think spacing will be an issue without these 3 point threats and without Ariza and I think Pierce is going to take time to acclimate himself to the offense. However, the ease of schedule to begin the season is making me keep my original prediction....48 wins and 4th in East.

[hands11]

In right before the buzzer - 46 wins, 4th in the East.

Additional explanation:

I started with a full-strength prediction of 49, and then subtracted 3 to account for extra losses in the first 6 weeks while Beal is out. They'll be around .500 for most of the year, and then finish strong in April to claim home court in the first round.

Let's get the season started! Go Wiz!

I have us..

OCT/NOV 10-5 ( 10-5 month )
DEC 22-9 ( 12-4 month )
Jan 29-19 ( 7-10 month )
Feb 36-24 ( 7-5 month )
Mar 45-29 ( 9-5 month )
Apr 52-30 ( 7-1 month )

Then rounded down to 50 wins.

No way it works out like that. That would be an insane finish. But I don't have us anywhere near .500 the entire year. I have us starting fast, back tracking as we hit the road and go West, then building back up and finishing strong )

Man, MEM was insane last year. They were 13-17 on DEC 30th and still ended the year 50-32