Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[montestewart]

Man, considering what I expected and what I hoped for when Leonsis bought the Caps and Wizards, seeing him tweet "analytics this" makes me realize he's a much douchier guy than I could have imagined.

The chart clearly illustrates the single most important factor distinguishing teams with good records and teams with bad records: strength of schedule. No analytics were used in creating this analytic.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I stumbled across some Bleacher Report thing purporting to grade NBA GMs. It lists the highlights of Grunfeld's Knicks drafting career as Hubert Davis and Charlie Ward; Michael Redd as the highlight of his Bucks draft (who was indeed a terrific find with the 43rd pick in the draft); and then Wall and Beal from his time with the Wizards. Then it includes the names: Andray Blatche (actually a good 2nd round pick -- the Wizards screwed the pooch with that unwarranted extension they amnestied before it even began), Nick Young, Javale McGee, Oleksiy Pecherov, Jan Vesely, and Chris Singleton.

Ernie's grade, according to this writer:

Spoiler:

B-

[closg00]

Fivethirtyeight gives us a 30% of making the playoffs. They don't have the odds of EG being fired if we don't make the playoffs, but my guess is that those odds are quite high. 70% chance of Grunfeld being fired? That is cause for optimism!

My guess is there's very little chance of Grunfeld being fired whether they make or miss the playoffs. Leonsis seems pretty well invested in the "It's the Injuries" storyline.

Ted is firmly under Ernie's control and he parrots EG's talking points, EG will never be held accountable. Ted hasn't shown that he is smart enough to realize that his GM is serving him badly.

[queridiculo]

I stumbled across some Bleacher Report thing purporting to grade NBA GMs. It lists the highlights of Grunfeld's Knicks drafting career as Hubert Davis and Charlie Ward; Michael Redd as the highlight of his Bucks draft (who was indeed a terrific find with the 43rd pick in the draft); and then Wall and Beal from his time with the Wizards. Then it includes the names: Andray Blatche (actually a good 2nd round pick -- the Wizards screwed the pooch with that unwarranted extension they amnestied before it even began), Nick Young, Javale McGee, Oleksiy Pecherov, Jan Vesely, and Chris Singleton.

Ernie's grade, according to this writer:

Spoiler:

B-

So now we know who millie is.

[Dark Faze]

tweet from danny rouhier from 106.7:

Never forget, Ernie took him instead of Draymond Green and Jae Crowder. Please draft NBA players:

I've seen more of this from the media the last few months too...and EB from the junkies had a story a few weeks back about pretty much being really down on Ted when it came to the wizards. Obviously it would help the good fight to have more outrage on the airwaves about the wiz in general, but the locals are starting to pay attention to the reality of the situation now.

[payitforward]

I stumbled across some Bleacher Report thing purporting to grade NBA GMs. It lists the highlights of Grunfeld's Knicks drafting career as Hubert Davis and Charlie Ward; Michael Redd as the highlight of his Bucks draft (who was indeed a terrific find with the 43rd pick in the draft); and then Wall and Beal from his time with the Wizards. Then it includes the names: Andray Blatche (actually a good 2nd round pick -- the Wizards screwed the pooch with that unwarranted extension they amnestied before it even began), Nick Young, Javale McGee, Oleksiy Pecherov, Jan Vesely, and Chris Singleton.

Ernie's grade, according to this writer:

Spoiler:

B-

So now we know who millie is.

Oh no... Millie has Ernie a "great GM (who) proves doubters wrong." I.e. :

Spoiler:

AA+ He's made us the San Antonio Spurs of the East, don't forget.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm feeling good about Anderson, Morris, Hickson and the rest healthy. I'm hoping for 44-45 wins and the Wizards playing their level best at playoffs.

I'm willing to live in the moment with the team. If you don't have me on ignore, I wrote the most seething criticisms I had and you read them. HOWEVER, if the moves work the moves work. Morris being fully embraced by Gortat and Dudley helps. We shall see, but Morris already has provided additional athleticism and experience and flexibility with youth that Hump/Blair didn't provide.

The unknown will remain the draft pick. It will be IMPOSSIBLE to evaluate this for some time IMO.

We've had a nice run of games since the All Star break, going 7-2, but I'm not THAT optimistic yet. Both Philly games and the Minnesota game were way too close for comfort. If those had been half-decent .500ish teams, we probably would have lost.

I'm not hating. An ugly win is still a win and you need to happy about all of them. But I'm not yet convinced yet that we can go forward and play .600 ball down the stretch. I'm hoping for 43 wins, which will probably be enough to squeak into the playoffs as long as we beat Detroit at least 1 more time to secure the tiebreaker.

Turns out you were right again, nate. Not so fast on the optimism ...

Make it 7-4 since the break; with the next three projected as losses. Now, the Wizards need to go 13-7; or, play at .650 to reach 43 wins.

[queridiculo]

Turns out you were right again, nate. Not so fast on the optimism ...

Make it 7-4 since the break; with the next three projected as losses. Now, the Wizards need to go 13-7; or, play at .650 to reach 43 wins.

Well, if you're looking for a break from the doom and gloom, the odds of the Wizards making the playoffs is higher than that of the Wizards keeping this years lottery pick

[Dark Faze]

that pick is so gone lol

the kieff and gortat front court combo is effing mediocre as hell too--as we all knew from the old phoenix teams...

lawd what a time, this team is so poorly ran

[AFM]

How quickly does Wall bolt from this team?

[queridiculo]

How quickly does Wall bolt from this team?

Once his extension is up, he's gone. Spurs might be sitting pretty with cap space at that point.

[McFilthy]

Ernie Grunfeld drops draft picks as flippantly as KLove drops dimes in the State Farm commercial...

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmyxOGG11jc[/youtube]

[ozthegap]

Wizards releasing Neal and signing Marcus Thornton. Ernie really wants that playoff spot.

[closg00]

Wizards releasing Neal and signing Marcus Thornton. Ernie really wants that playoff spot.

He is being "active". What he really is doing is laying the foundation to talk about how "they" did everything they could to overcome an injury-plagued season, Ted will co-sign.

[payitforward]

Wizards releasing Neal and signing Marcus Thornton. Ernie really wants that playoff spot.

He is being "active". What he really is doing is laying the foundation to talk about how "they" did everything they could to overcome an injury-plagued season, Ted will co-sign.

You are exactly correct.

And so are they -- Ernie did "all he could', everything he was capable of, to improve the team. He always has. Unfortunately, he is not capable of much, and we are not a good team.

But... why should Ted worry? People are buying his product. There are butts in the seats. Or, if they're not there, at least he's still got their season ticket money. If -- as I hope hope hope -- renewals go down signficantly, *that* (not our record) will give Ted a reason to fire Ernie.

[willbcocks]

I really hope this flurry of (ineffectual) activity is driven by some kind of ultimatum (playoffs?) and that failing to fulfill the terms of that ultimatum (now 80% chance) will results in EG's firing. This is what keeps me going as a fan. There is not much else-this is the most pessimistic I have been about the team's longterm prospects since Wall was drafted.

[montestewart]

No, EG is the new Unseld. Terd CAN'T fire him. Terd and Ernie probably go through all these moves together, inflating Terd's ego while making him complicit in the current state of affairs. The two are like deer in the headlights, watching their own slow motion train wreck, the slow motion giving them plenty of time to attribute bad fortune to anything other than their own missteps.

This board is a chronicle of fans who easily saw this coming, saw Terd blatantly violating his own stated principles of team building, taking advantage of a weak Eastern Conference to shortcut his way to a fake contender with a too small and quite unproven core of youth (three top-3 picks), taking advantage of those rookie contracts by filling out the team with expensive (and frequently fragile) veterans, holding it all together with a laughable mortar of NBA castoffs.

This team may have peaked, and its peak was really no better than the Arenas years peak. That's what EG teams do, sacrifice the future for middling playoff success, bottom out, then start all over. The tedium of mediocity. Terd has let EG cycle through it a second time.

The problem is that even if EG is gone (if that ever happens) there's still Terd at the top, the guy who schadt on Wizards fans, the guy who kept raising prices for a fraudulent product, the smug shag rug, the cheap little clip joint canary. (Did I mention they replaced lower-level LeBJ Heat tickets with Sixers tickets, without telling me? Clip joint!)

Go Wiz!

[closg00]

No, EG is the new Unseld. Terd CAN'T fire him. Terd and Ernie probably go through all these moves together, inflating Terd's ego while making him complicit in the current state of affairs. The two are like deer in the headlights, watching their own slow motion train wreck, the slow motion giving them plenty of time to attribute bad fortune to anything other than their own missteps.

This board is a chronicle of fans who easily saw this coming, saw Terd blatantly violating his own stated principles of team building, taking advantage of a weak Eastern Conference to shortcut his way to a fake contender with a too small and quite unproven core of youth (three top-3 picks), taking advantage of those rookie contracts by filling out the team with expensive (and frequently fragile) veterans, holding it all together with a laughable mortar of NBA castoffs.

This team may have peaked, and its peak was really no better than the Arenas years peak. That's what EG teams do, sacrifice the future for middling playoff success, bottom out, then start all over. The tedium of mediocity. Terd has let EG cycle through it a second time.

The problem is that even if EG is gone (if that ever happens) there's still Terd at the top, the guy who schadt on Wizards fans, the guy who kept raising prices for a fraudulent product, the smug shag rug, the cheap little clip joint canary. (Did I mention they replaced lower-level LeBJ Heat tickets with Sixers tickets, without telling me? Clip joint!)

Go Wiz!

EXACTLY! Toad can't fire Ernie because he envelopes Toad in every move before he makes it, he would in-effect be firing himself. This is the evil genius behind Ernie's longevity.

[payitforward]

Yup. Managing his boss is Ernie's greatest skill. We got our first unobstructed view of that via the trade for Miller/Foye.

[Ruzious]

I'm feeling good about Anderson, Morris, Hickson and the rest healthy. I'm hoping for 44-45 wins and the Wizards playing their level best at playoffs.

I'm willing to live in the moment with the team. If you don't have me on ignore, I wrote the most seething criticisms I had and you read them. HOWEVER, if the moves work the moves work. Morris being fully embraced by Gortat and Dudley helps. We shall see, but Morris already has provided additional athleticism and experience and flexibility with youth that Hump/Blair didn't provide.

The unknown will remain the draft pick. It will be IMPOSSIBLE to evaluate this for some time IMO.

We've had a nice run of games since the All Star break, going 7-2, but I'm not THAT optimistic yet. Both Philly games and the Minnesota game were way too close for comfort. If those had been half-decent .500ish teams, we probably would have lost.

I'm not hating. An ugly win is still a win and you need to happy about all of them. But I'm not yet convinced yet that we can go forward and play .600 ball down the stretch. I'm hoping for 43 wins, which will probably be enough to squeak into the playoffs as long as we beat Detroit at least 1 more time to secure the tiebreaker.

Turns out you were right again, nate. Not so fast on the optimism ...

Make it 7-4 since the break; with the next three projected as losses. Now, the Wizards need to go 13-7; or, play at .650 to reach 43 wins.

See The Royalettes version of "It's gonna take a miracle." They still have a 5 game West Coast trip and 3 games against Atlanta among the obstacles in their schedule.