Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIV

[Ruzious]

Yup, I am a PIF disciple here when it comes to what the Wiz should do. I can't imagine Leonsis wants to pay the lux tax, but the moves his GM's made and not made re draft picks has helped get him in the situation where he is paying the tax and will likely continue to do so. Grunfeld's moves in that regard will cost him many millions of dollars.

[payitforward]

Yup, I am a PIF disciple here when it comes to what the Wiz should do. I can't imagine Leonsis wants to pay the lux tax, but the moves his GM's made and not made re draft picks has helped get him in the situation where he is paying the tax and will likely continue to do so. Grunfeld's moves in that regard will cost him many millions of dollars.

You're not a disciple, Ruz, b/c you haven't paid your disciple dues!!

What I'd say is that I've learned from you over the years I've been posting here -- & from dat & nate & ccj & tontoz &... plenty of others as well -- & I assume that once in a while there must be something others can learn from me. The big thing is to learn -- to think about what goes down & to keep learning.

[gambitx777]

Unless something's happened that I haven't heard, the Wiz are not in the lux tax. And if they are, of course it matters, because the tax is a 100% tax - making every dollar you go over the tax doubled. And you don't trade what it'd take to get Parker unless you have long-term plans to keep him. I agree that Henson is just a center - that's why I said it would be difficult to play him with Gortat or Mahinmi. And Mahinmi doesn't have trade value.

#1 the only trade value parker has is for his 6 mill cheap expiring deal, that's about it. the only real value for henson is also his contract.
#2 Ian does not have a lot of trade value, but ever mans trash could be another mans treasure. A big D centric center off the bench is what that team needs and what that team lacks. ian is a perfect fit for that bench, and adding a second round pick and a young player, i believe i added chris in this deal, for two guys you are really not keen on for a piece that can help you is huge.
#3 parker and henson while they don't have a lot of trade value, do to injuries and effort issues. a change of team and locker rooms can help with those things. with the exception of Ian our medical staff is pretty solid and we have a really strong locker room i think. Its at least a trade worth looking into
#4 we are currently sitting at 7 million over the tax.

Parker's got a lot of value to the Bucks. It makes no sense for them to basically give him away unless they think he won't stay healthy, and the Wiz basically don't have anything of value to trade. There's no match there.

Then why haven't they locked him.up in a max extension like most other high draft picks ? Or any extension. They probably didn't offer one, if they did he would have been stupid not to take it with his knees. He is in no way untouchable and he has not real trade value other than the one man's trash another man's treasure value that he could have to a random team or two. Have you looked at their team? John Henson is the only back up center and Kidd pretty much hates him for some reason. John Henson and and parker are extremely obtainable. And Ian mahinmi fits on that squad.

[payitforward]

Parker has certainly not been very good. I can't imagine wanting to retain him. So if we did this trade, then one scenario is that we would not give him his qualifying offer next off season. We'd just let him go.

In that case, we'd have lowered our salary obligation by $5m next year & the following. & instead of Mahinmi we'd have Henson. The problem is that Henson's not as good as Mahinmi. We wouldn't have improved in this scenario, & we wouldn't have cut a huge amount off our salary structure either.

The other scenario, where we do give Parker his qualifying offer & then match what he's offered or else do a sign & trade, is impractical: we couldn't afford to keep him, & we can't add the significant salary that would come in that sign & trade.

For those reasons, I can't see a benefit in this trade. What we need now are good young players & picks. Do you think the Bucks would give us Malcolm Brogdon, Thon Maker & their 2018 R1 pick for Mahinmi?

[Ruzious]

#1 the only trade value parker has is for his 6 mill cheap expiring deal, that's about it. the only real value for henson is also his contract.
#2 Ian does not have a lot of trade value, but ever mans trash could be another mans treasure. A big D centric center off the bench is what that team needs and what that team lacks. ian is a perfect fit for that bench, and adding a second round pick and a young player, i believe i added chris in this deal, for two guys you are really not keen on for a piece that can help you is huge.
#3 parker and henson while they don't have a lot of trade value, do to injuries and effort issues. a change of team and locker rooms can help with those things. with the exception of Ian our medical staff is pretty solid and we have a really strong locker room i think. Its at least a trade worth looking into
#4 we are currently sitting at 7 million over the tax.

Parker's got a lot of value to the Bucks. It makes no sense for them to basically give him away unless they think he won't stay healthy, and the Wiz basically don't have anything of value to trade. There's no match there.

Then why haven't they locked him.up in a max extension like most other high draft picks ? Or any extension. They probably didn't offer one, if they did he would have been stupid not to take it with his knees. He is in no way untouchable and he has not real trade value other than the one man's trash another man's treasure value that he could have to a random team or two. Have you looked at their team? John Henson is the only back up center and Kidd pretty much hates him for some reason. John Henson and and parker are extremely obtainable. And Ian mahinmi fits on that squad.

He's publicly stated he wants a max contract, and obviously the Bucks aren't going to give him anything like that until he shows he's healthy. That doesn't - in any way - mean they don't want to keep him.

And I disagree with Pif's analysis. Parker was coming along really well at the 3 last season - before the injury. He's not good on defense, but he was becoming one of the more dynamic 3's in the game.

[nate33]

Next year, Wall/Porter/Beal will cost us a combined $70.6m. Were we to trade for Cousins, who is expiring, I think we can assume it'd cost us $25m / year to keep him. That would make it @$96m for 4 players next year.

But, that's nothing: the following year we'd be at $122m for 4 players (Wall, Beal, Porter, Cousins), and unless we gave Oubre no more than his qualifying offer, the outflow is even more stratospheric.

I look forward to hearing how this is going to work (not).

You're right. It's hard to fully appreciate the prohibitive cost of Wall's contract extension without seeing the long term projections in chart form. Ouch!

With the general trend of fans "cutting the cord" to their cable service, my guess is that we've reached peak revenues for the league and things might drift the other way for a while. The salary cap and luxtax threshold will not continue to expand to make Wall's contract seem more affordable. From this point forward, the team will be Wall, Beal, Porter and scraps, because that's all we can afford. Barring a freakishly rare selection of an All Star big with a late pick (who matures to All-Star status within the timespan of his 4-year rookie contract), we have no realistic chance at a championship.

Frankly, we ought to start thinking hard about trading Wall. He's a good player, but I don't see him ever living up to that contract. (What's the deal on trading him right now. Is he Poison Pill until his extension kicks in?)

[payitforward]

... I disagree with Pif's analysis. Parker was coming along really well at the 3 last season - before the injury. He's not good on offense, but he was becoming one of the more dynamic 3's in the game.

...& maybe it'll continue. Or, maybe it won't (esp. given yet another injury). I hope it does. I don't ever want to see a guy fail. Still, so far, overall, he hasn't established himself at the level you would hope a guy like him would by the end of his 3d season -- it'd be hard to disagree with that.

& that's my real point: if he isn't worth big $ we'd have to pass on giving him his qualifying offer. If he is brilliant next year & warrants the kind of 2d contract successful high picks are getting (max or near max), that's something we can no way afford to take on! Hence, this is not a useful trade idea for us.

[montestewart]

Next year, Wall/Porter/Beal will cost us a combined $70.6m. Were we to trade for Cousins, who is expiring, I think we can assume it'd cost us $25m / year to keep him. That would make it @$96m for 4 players next year.

But, that's nothing: the following year we'd be at $122m for 4 players (Wall, Beal, Porter, Cousins), and unless we gave Oubre no more than his qualifying offer, the outflow is even more stratospheric.

I look forward to hearing how this is going to work (not).

You're right. It's hard to fully appreciate the prohibitive cost of Wall's contract extension without seeing the long term projections in chart form. Ouch!

With the general trend of fans "cutting the cord" to their cable service, my guess is that we've reached peak revenues for the league and things might drift the other way for a while. The salary cap and luxtax threshold will not continue to expand to make Wall's contract seem more affordable. From this point forward, the team will be Wall, Beal, Porter and scraps, because that's all we can afford. Barring a freakishly rare selection of an All Star big with a late pick (who matures to All-Star status within the timespan of his 4-year rookie contract), we have no realistic chance at a championship.

Frankly, we ought to start thinking hard about trading Wall. He's a good player, but I don't see him ever living up to that contract. (What's the deal on trading him right now. Is he Poison Pill until his extension kicks in?)

I only looked at obvious teams (Cavs, Spurs, Warriors, etc.) but it looks like the Wizards have the most committed salary of any team in the league.

[gambitx777]

Parker has certainly not been very good. I can't imagine wanting to retain him. So if we did this trade, then one scenario is that we would not give him his qualifying offer next off season. We'd just let him go.

In that case, we'd have lowered our salary obligation by $5m next year & the following. & instead of Mahinmi we'd have Henson. The problem is that Henson's not as good as Mahinmi. We wouldn't have improved in this scenario, & we wouldn't have cut a huge amount off our salary structure either.

The other scenario, where we do give Parker his qualifying offer & then match what he's offered or else do a sign & trade, is impractical: we couldn't afford to keep him, & we can't add the significant salary that would come in that sign & trade.

For those reasons, I can't see a benefit in this trade. What we need now are good young players & picks. Do you think the Bucks would give us Malcolm Brogdon, Thon Maker & their 2018 R1 pick for Mahinmi?

Henson is not as good as mahinmi but his contract is an amazing value. For his contract his skill level it decent. That's why I'd rather have him than an over paid mahinmi. I'd be fine using Parker as a salary dump no on in their right mind would give that kid a max with his knees. And it would not cost us a first just chirs and a second. I think piff and I have two different mid sets I want to fix the current situation now, and piff wants to endure it and load up for later

[payitforward]

Next year, Wall/Porter/Beal will cost us a combined $70.6m. Were we to trade for Cousins, who is expiring, I think we can assume it'd cost us $25m / year to keep him. That would make it @$96m for 4 players next year.

But, that's nothing: the following year we'd be at $122m for 4 players (Wall, Beal, Porter, Cousins), and unless we gave Oubre no more than his qualifying offer, the outflow is even more stratospheric.

I look forward to hearing how this is going to work (not).

You're right. It's hard to fully appreciate the prohibitive cost of Wall's contract extension without seeing the long term projections in chart form. Ouch!

With the general trend of fans "cutting the cord" to their cable service, my guess is that we've reached peak revenues for the league and things might drift the other way for a while. The salary cap and luxtax threshold will not continue to expand to make Wall's contract seem more affordable. From this point forward, the team will be Wall, Beal, Porter and scraps, because that's all we can afford. Barring a freakishly rare selection of an All Star big with a late pick (who matures to All-Star status within the timespan of his 4-year rookie contract), we have no realistic chance at a championship.

Frankly, we ought to start thinking hard about trading Wall. He's a good player, but I don't see him ever living up to that contract. (What's the deal on trading him right now. Is he Poison Pill until his extension kicks in?)

The "cutting the cord" trend is real, no doubt. But, in fact I think it's that trend Ted is counting on to power the growth of Monumental Sports Network, & it's that trend which attracts a potential investor like the widow Jobs.

Being able to address the individual consumer directly, w/o the controlling intermediary of Comcast (et. al.), blows open the potential for products, services, experiences etc. Monumental will be able to offer.

At the same time, you're right that direct revenue of that sort may route around areas the league itself can control & from which it will derive revenue. What that's going to do to the economics of sports franchise ownership & the structure (including power structure) of pro leagues is a big question. Salary caps may wind up going away.

But not in the next few years. Hence, yeah... there'll be no 4th max salary on the Wizards (nor any equivalent "big 4" anywhere else either).

But the real info in this picture is not that it'll be a big 3 and "scraps." It's that drafting well & evaluating talent accurately will become more critical. GS is the poster boy right now for grasping this new reality in advance. As to the Wizards, we'll need a much smarter more capable GM than Ernie to take any real steps forward from here.

[payitforward]

Henson is not as good as mahinmi but his contract is an amazing value. For his contract his skill level it decent. That's why I'd rather have him than an over paid mahinmi. I'd be fine using Parker as a salary dump no on in their right mind would give that kid a max with his knees. And it would not cost us a first just chirs and a second. I think piff and I have two different mid sets I want to fix the current situation now, and piff wants to endure it and load up for later

I want to do things that are possible to do. No matter how you look at it, Henson in place of Mahinmi is likely to make us worse not better short term. & given our salary situation the $5m savings doesn't help enough to compensate for that.

As to "using Parker as a salary dump," I have no idea what you're talking about, unless you mean we'd save $5m a year for 2 years, as I just wrote. But, even so, the trade wouldn't keep us out of tax this year, & next year, even if we let Parker walk, there'd be absolutely no way to stay out of tax territory. The following year is much worse, of course.

That's the reality, & there's no way around it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Henson is not as good as mahinmi but his contract is an amazing value. For his contract his skill level it decent. That's why I'd rather have him than an over paid mahinmi. I'd be fine using Parker as a salary dump no on in their right mind would give that kid a max with his knees. And it would not cost us a first just chirs and a second. I think piff and I have two different mid sets I want to fix the current situation now, and piff wants to endure it and load up for later

I want to do things that are possible to do. No matter how you look at it, Henson in place of Mahinmi is likely to make us worse not better short term. & given our salary situation the $5m savings doesn't help enough to compensate for that.

As to "using Parker as a salary dump," I have no idea what you're talking about, unless you mean we'd save $5m a year for 2 years, as I just wrote. But, even so, the trade wouldn't keep us out of tax this year, & next year, even if we let Parker walk, there'd be absolutely no way to stay out of tax territory. The following year is much worse, of course.

That's the reality, & there's no way around it.

Per-36 minutes, Henson averages twice as many assists, twice as many blocks, one less foul, and otherwise gives you just as many points and rebounds as Mahinmi.

He's five years younger and would be playing with a running point guard in John Wall. One thing I recall from watching him in North Carolina is Henson is very mobile.

Not seeing how trading for him makes him it makes the Wizards any worse.


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[payitforward]

Henson is not as good as mahinmi but his contract is an amazing value. For his contract his skill level it decent. That's why I'd rather have him than an over paid mahinmi. I'd be fine using Parker as a salary dump no on in their right mind would give that kid a max with his knees. And it would not cost us a first just chirs and a second. I think piff and I have two different mid sets I want to fix the current situation now, and piff wants to endure it and load up for later

I want to do things that are possible to do. No matter how you look at it, Henson in place of Mahinmi is likely to make us worse not better short term. & given our salary situation the $5m savings doesn't help enough to compensate for that.

As to "using Parker as a salary dump," I have no idea what you're talking about, unless you mean we'd save $5m a year for 2 years, as I just wrote. But, even so, the trade wouldn't keep us out of tax this year, & next year, even if we let Parker walk, there'd be absolutely no way to stay out of tax territory. The following year is much worse, of course.

That's the reality, & there's no way around it.

Per-36 minutes, Henson averages twice as many assists, twice as many blocks, one less foul, and otherwise gives you just as many points and rebounds as Mahinmi.

He's five years younger and would be playing with a running point guard in John Wall. One thing I recall from watching him in North Carolina is Henson is very mobile.

Not seeing how trading for him makes him it makes the Wizards any worse.

I suppose it's a little unfair to compare the players on last season -- just because Mahinmi only played 550 minutes, so it's a relatively small sample size. All the same:

You're right that Henson had more blocks, fewer fouls & more assists.
But Mahinmi was the better rebounder -- a little bit better on offensive boards, & a little bit better on defensive boards.
And while Mahinmi was about even on 'turnovers minus steals,' Henson was at a minus 1 on that combination.

To this point, the numbers are very close, but they do favor Henson very slightly over Mahinmi. But... Mahinmi was a significantly more efficient scorer, & that tilts the scale back in his direction. Per 40 minutes Mahinmi scored 12.1 pts on (in effect) 9.94 attempts (counting FTAs at .4 of a FGA -- the usual formula). Henson actually scored 13.9 points, but it took him the equivalent of 12.5 attempts.

The results were quite similar the previous season. Mahinmi is a little more productive. Yet, Henson makes $5m less. & he's younger, as you pointed out (4 years not 5).

So, if all other things were equal, I'd agree w/ you; I'd rather have Henson & the $5m than Mahinmi. & if we'd signed Henson for $10m/year in the Summer of 2016, instead of Mahinmi @$16m, I'd have been happier. (Of course there were several less expensive guys I'd have been even happier to sign! e.g. Dedmon)

But all these other things aren't equal, above all because in our situation the $5m doesn't actually help us. Doesn't get us under the tax, doesn't give us more flexibility going forward.

Anyway, that was my thinking!

[gambitx777]

I want to do things that are possible to do. No matter how you look at it, Henson in place of Mahinmi is likely to make us worse not better short term. & given our salary situation the $5m savings doesn't help enough to compensate for that.

As to "using Parker as a salary dump," I have no idea what you're talking about, unless you mean we'd save $5m a year for 2 years, as I just wrote. But, even so, the trade wouldn't keep us out of tax this year, & next year, even if we let Parker walk, there'd be absolutely no way to stay out of tax territory. The following year is much worse, of course.

That's the reality, & there's no way around it.

Per-36 minutes, Henson averages twice as many assists, twice as many blocks, one less foul, and otherwise gives you just as many points and rebounds as Mahinmi.

He's five years younger and would be playing with a running point guard in John Wall. One thing I recall from watching him in North Carolina is Henson is very mobile.

Not seeing how trading for him makes him it makes the Wizards any worse.

I suppose it's a little unfair to compare the players on last season -- just because Mahinmi only played 550 minutes, so it's a relatively small sample size. All the same:

You're right that Henson had more blocks, fewer fouls & more assists.
But Mahinmi was the better rebounder -- a little bit better on offensive boards, & a little bit better on defensive boards.
And while Mahinmi was about even on 'turnovers minus steals,' Henson was at a minus 1 on that combination.

To this point, the numbers are very close, but they do favor Henson very slightly over Mahinmi. But... Mahinmi was a significantly more efficient scorer, & that tilts the scale back in his direction. Per 40 minutes Mahinmi scored 12.1 pts on (in effect) 9.94 attempts (counting FTAs at .4 of a FGA -- the usual formula). Henson actually scored 13.9 points, but it took him the equivalent of 12.5 attempts.

The results were quite similar the previous season. Mahinmi is a little more productive. Yet, Henson makes $5m less. & he's younger, as you pointed out (4 years not 5).

So, if all other things were equal, I'd agree w/ you; I'd rather have Henson & the $5m than Mahinmi. & if we'd signed Henson for $10m/year in the Summer of 2016, instead of Mahinmi @$16m, I'd have been happier. (Of course there were several less expensive guys I'd have been even happier to sign! e.g. Dedmon)

But all these other things aren't equal, above all because in our situation the $5m doesn't actually help us. Doesn't get us under the tax, doesn't give us more flexibility going forward.

Anyway, that was my thinking!

I guess my mind set is,
Is Ian mahinmi over paid, absolutely. Is it a bad contract? Yes.
Is Henson over paid, No. is it a bad contract absolutely not!
Henson is a much better value than mahinmi. its not about the tax at this point its about value. youth and health.
Henson is younger and on a much better deal. In my mind if you can swap them do it because hes not that far from mahinmi for that difference to be felt, and considering that, Henson can stay on the floor more than ian. that makes a difference.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Henson also can play both PF and C.

I think the Wizards would be better with Henson at PF along with Gortat at C than they are with Morris.

If I am wrong about that, I would at least say Henson is a better backup PF than anybody else we have.

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[Ruzious]

Henson also can play both PF and C.

I think the Wizards would be better with Henson at PF along with Gortat at C than they are with Morris.

If I am wrong about that, I would at least say Henson is a better backup PF than anybody else we have.

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The conclusion of the Bucks forum posters is that Henson can't play PF - he's strictly a center - though I haven't always agreed with that . There's an across the board negativity about him, because he has a rep for being lazy and has shown no improvement - he has poor eating habits and is no workout warrior. His blocks went way up because he decided to start going after every shot - notice his rebounds went down at the same time. He gives up too many offensive rebounds doing that. He's a gifted player, but he just hasn't worked hard enough to improve.

[pcbothwel]

Henson also can play both PF and C.

I think the Wizards would be better with Henson at PF along with Gortat at C than they are with Morris.

If I am wrong about that, I would at least say Henson is a better backup PF than anybody else we have.

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The conclusion of the Bucks forum posters is that Henson can't play PF - he's strictly a center - though I haven't always agreed with that . There's an across the board negativity about him, because he has a rep for being lazy and has shown no improvement - he has poor eating habits and is no workout warrior. His blocks went way up because he decided to start going after every shot - notice his rebounds went down at the same time. He gives up too many offensive rebounds doing that. He's a gifted player, but he just hasn't worked hard enough to improve.

i really cant wrap my head around the infatuation with Henson... He is a terrible player.

[payitforward]

Henson also can play both PF and C.

I think the Wizards would be better with Henson at PF along with Gortat at C than they are with Morris.

If I am wrong about that, I would at least say Henson is a better backup PF than anybody else we have.

Very good points!! I have no real idea whether he can/can't play PF, but if so, then that changes the equation.

But... we'd still have all the problems attendant on the trade itself. We'd be letting Parker walk at season's end (no alternative to that). & at the end of Henson's contract it's a question whether we could afford to keep him.

[payitforward]

Henson also can play both PF and C.

I think the Wizards would be better with Henson at PF along with Gortat at C than they are with Morris.

If I am wrong about that, I would at least say Henson is a better backup PF than anybody else we have.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

The conclusion of the Bucks forum posters is that Henson can't play PF - he's strictly a center - though I haven't always agreed with that . There's an across the board negativity about him, because he has a rep for being lazy and has shown no improvement - he has poor eating habits and is no workout warrior. His blocks went way up because he decided to start going after every shot - notice his rebounds went down at the same time. He gives up too many offensive rebounds doing that. He's a gifted player, but he just hasn't worked hard enough to improve.

i really cant wrap my head around the infatuation with Henson... He is a terrible player.

I don't think there's any "infatuation" with him -- just a discussion of whether a particular trade would work as a way of unloading Mahinmi's mammoth contract. OTOH, even taking into account what Ruz reports from the Milwaukee board, no he's not "a terrible player." Why don't you compare his numbers to Markieff's numbers? Who's more productive overall? By a little or a lot?

edit: still, you do have a point, in that -- if I were to target a player to join us as a young big, it wouldn't be Henson. There are many better choices.

[dangermouse]

So im a bit excited about Oubre vs the LongLions. Sure I know its preseason, not only that, but against a Chinese team... However in saying that, the LL's were playing tenacious D... Oubre looked like he has taken another leap in his game. His handle looks much improved, he wasn't leaking out to gamble on D and losing his man too often... Splashed a few threes on catch a shoot. Honestly looking like a young and prettier Trevor Ariza.

THEORETICALLY - If this is not a one off and becomes the norm for Oubre, is Porter someone you'd put on the block, to find an upgrade at PF/C? Perhaps someone disgruntled and All-Star level at another position?

Obviously for a GOOD gm, anyone is tradeable. But after signing a new, large contract, and having played college ball in the same building...?