Rui Hachimura 2.0

[nate33]

I'm curious which players in the NBA have shown their value after their first contract or their rookie extension contract after their draft team let them go. And if there are any identifiable markers in common or trends that can be teased out among these players. Seems to me like there could be value here to exploit if a team were good at it. This is the sort of thing we will have to be good at if we are going to be capped out with beta-stars.

Tommy actually has proven decent at this. Thomas Bryant and even Mo Wagner showed more value here than they did for the team that drafted them. Daniel Gafford. Ok inexplicably we let Garrison Matthews go, to see him grow on another team. But I'd say Kuzma is being paid appropriately to his performance, where previously he was underperforming.

I tend to look for young talent playing on win-now teams. Or at players stuck behind all-stars. Then look for trends of improvement, especially in FT shooting and assist numbers. And players who defensively rebound well for their position. Most young players foul too much, that improves as they get comfort, but FT%'s are a pure clean example of a skill that only improves with repetition. Players who trend upwards here tend to be gym rats who love the game. Nobody cheers for you for hitting a free throw in an empty gym. These players often improve in their 3FG% as well. Defensive rebounds (relative to position, if they are a tweener you have to compare them vs the largest position they play.) are one of the BBIQ measurements that are a generally good barometer for whether a player knows what they are doing out there, if they trend upwards in this category then they are getting comfortable out there.

I'll have to do a pass on the all-stars and see if there are players behind them who are overlooked, especially on a capped out team with win-now aspirations.

I'd say that PG's often bloom late. Nash and Billups are obvious examples. But so are guys like VanVleet, Lowry, Murray, and Dragic. That bodes well since we need a PG. Could a guy like Jalen Suggs be the next Dejounte Murray or Rajon Rondo?

Agreed, and I think he could very well be, but he's such a high profile player for Orlando that I don't see him being shopped or traded without getting a huge haul.

Yeah, it's probably a pipe dream. Surely Orlando wouldn't trade him after just one bad rookie year. He would have to have a 2nd bad season next year before they start having doubts.

[Ruzious]

Or G-League players. Daishen Nix? Or even Joel Ayayi?

I don't know what to make of Nix. I thought he looked lousy for Ignite last season, but this season he's looked dramatically better. And he's got that weird size for a PG - even bigger than Marcus Smart - he might play that kind of role in the NBA? Looks like Houston's gonna give him a chance to play.

[9 and 20]

So your grand plan is to hold our rookie draft picks and role players to unrealistic expectations? Then when they fall short of these expectations move on from them. If it's any consolation, it looks like you'll get your way.

Yes. That's what good teams do. They assess their draft pick over the first 3 years and decide whether they can envision that guy as a plus player on the next contract or not. If they think the guy is nothing better than an MLE level player, they cut bait and move on. If they can get a little value for him before letting him go, all the better. Consider the top 25 picks from the 2017 draft:

1 PHI Markelle Fultz - Wasn't working out in Philly - Traded for Tyrese Maxey. Resigned by ORL at $17M/yr
2 LAL Lonzo Ball - Traded for Anthony Davis. Ultimately was not resigned by New Orleans.
3 BOS Jayson Tatum - Obvious star. Retained and signed to max.
4 PHO Josh Jackson - Phoenix unloaded him in his 3rd season for a 2nd. Now a journeyman on his 3rd team.
5 SAC De'Aaron Fox - Looked like a possible star. Resigned to a max and is now overpaid
6 ORL Jonathan Isaac - Looked like a quality starter. Resigned to a $17M/yr deal but is always hurt.
7 MIN Lauri Markkanen - Chicago opted not to retain. Signed with Cleveland for $17M/yr. Decent player.
8 NYK Frank Ntilikina - NY did not retain. Signed with Dallas for vet minimum. Not in rotation.
9 DAL Dennis Smith Jr. - NY did not retain. Waived twice. A bust.
10 SAC Zach Collins - Portland did not retain. Signed by SA for $7M/yr. Played 173 minutes so far.
11 CHO Malik Monk - Charlotte did not retain. Signed by Lakers for vet minimum. Useful bench player.
12 DET Luke Kennard - Traded for Saddiq Bey in his 3rd season. Resigned by LAC at $14M/yr to come off bench.
13 DEN Donovan Mitchell - Obvious star. Retained and signed to max.
14 MIA Bam Adebayo - Obvious star. Retained and signed to max.
15 POR Justin Jackson - Traded twice and waived. Now on 10-day contract
16 CHI Justin Patton - Traded twice and waived. Now on 10-day contract
17 MIL D.J. Wilson - 3 lousy years in Milwaukee, then traded for PJ Tucker. Then waived.
18 IND T.J. Leaf - a bust.
19 ATL John Collins - Borderline star. Retained by Atlanta at $25M a year but is now being shopped
20 POR Harry Giles - A bust. Out of the league
21 OKC Terrance Ferguson - A bust. Out of the league
22 BRK Jarrett Allen - Awesome player for Brooklyn. Traded for James Harden. Resigned by CLE at $20M/yr
23 TOR OG Anunoby - Quality starter for Toronto. Resigned at $17M a year. Good value.
24 UTA Tyler Lydon - A bust. Out of league.
25 ORL Anžejs Pasečņiks - A bust. Out of the league.

Of those 25 players, only 7, Tatum, Fox, Isaac, Mitchell, Adebayo, J.Collins, and Anunoby, were retained by the team that drafted them. All of them were better than Rui is now. Tatum, Mitchell and Adebayo were superstars and no-brainers to resign at max contracts. Anunoby was a value signing. Fox, Isaac and J.Collins are useful players but probably overpaid.

There are 6 other rotation-caliber players from that group: Fultz, Ball, Markkanen, Monk, Kennard, Allen. The rest are busts or journeymen. Of those rotation-caliber players, Allen and Ball are clearly better than Rui and are therefore not really a comparison for Rui. And Monk was resigned for the vet-minimum which isn't really a risk for the signer so he is not a comparison either.

I'd say the players from that draft class that probably resemble Rui's situation are Markkanen, Kennard, and Fultz. All 3 demonstrated that they were legit NBA players, but it was far from certain whether they projected to be quality starters or not. Markkanen and Fultz were signed for $17M. Kennard, $15M. Are any of those teams particularly happy with those signings? I doubt it.

The point is, if the player isn't clearly a starting-caliber player by the end of his rookie deal, it's not wise to resign him to significant money and then hope and pray.

You can do the same analysis from the 2016 draft class. Guys that weren't obvious stars or clear starters (Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Murray, Sabonis, Poeltl) ended up being disappointing on their second contract (Hield, Prince, LeVert, Beasley).

We are all frustrated, but when your frustration has a negative impact you should take a stepback and become introspective. It is your mentality that leaves the Wizards mired in mediocrity. It's why we moved on from Troy Brown Jr. way to early. Why Kelly Oubre has been gone for years and is just entering his prime. Why Otto Porter Jr. was overpaid and ultimately traded for nothing.

These examples only prove my point, not yours.

We moved on from Troy Brown and it was the right move. The guy hasn't done anything. Instead, we turned him into a better player. Otto Porter was resigned, but for too much money, which ended up being a mistake. It created a luxtax problem that ultimately resulted in us dumping Oubre and then Porter himself. Fortunately, dumping Porter turned out to be a good move because injuries sapped his ability. I was upset that we dumped Oubre because of the Porter mismanagement, but even that turned out to be not such a problem. Oubre has bounced around as a free agent since. The real problem was that we dumped Oubre under duress. If we could have turned him into a future 1st, it would have been a good move.

+1 just for the amount of time and work that went into writing this up.

[prime1time]

So your grand plan is to hold our rookie draft picks and role players to unrealistic expectations? Then when they fall short of these expectations move on from them. If it's any consolation, it looks like you'll get your way.

Yes. That's what good teams do. They assess their draft pick over the first 3 years and decide whether they can envision that guy as a plus player on the next contract or not. If they think the guy is nothing better than an MLE level player, they cut bait and move on. If they can get a little value for him before letting him go, all the better. Consider the top 25 picks from the 2017 draft:

1 PHI Markelle Fultz - Wasn't working out in Philly - Traded for Tyrese Maxey. Resigned by ORL at $17M/yr
2 LAL Lonzo Ball - Traded for Anthony Davis. Ultimately was not resigned by New Orleans.
3 BOS Jayson Tatum - Obvious star. Retained and signed to max.
4 PHO Josh Jackson - Phoenix unloaded him in his 3rd season for a 2nd. Now a journeyman on his 3rd team.
5 SAC De'Aaron Fox - Looked like a possible star. Resigned to a max and is now overpaid
6 ORL Jonathan Isaac - Looked like a quality starter. Resigned to a $17M/yr deal but is always hurt.
7 MIN Lauri Markkanen - Chicago opted not to retain. Signed with Cleveland for $17M/yr. Decent player.
8 NYK Frank Ntilikina - NY did not retain. Signed with Dallas for vet minimum. Not in rotation.
9 DAL Dennis Smith Jr. - NY did not retain. Waived twice. A bust.
10 SAC Zach Collins - Portland did not retain. Signed by SA for $7M/yr. Played 173 minutes so far.
11 CHO Malik Monk - Charlotte did not retain. Signed by Lakers for vet minimum. Useful bench player.
12 DET Luke Kennard - Traded for Saddiq Bey in his 3rd season. Resigned by LAC at $14M/yr to come off bench.
13 DEN Donovan Mitchell - Obvious star. Retained and signed to max.
14 MIA Bam Adebayo - Obvious star. Retained and signed to max.
15 POR Justin Jackson - Traded twice and waived. Now on 10-day contract
16 CHI Justin Patton - Traded twice and waived. Now on 10-day contract
17 MIL D.J. Wilson - 3 lousy years in Milwaukee, then traded for PJ Tucker. Then waived.
18 IND T.J. Leaf - a bust.
19 ATL John Collins - Borderline star. Retained by Atlanta at $25M a year but is now being shopped
20 POR Harry Giles - A bust. Out of the league
21 OKC Terrance Ferguson - A bust. Out of the league
22 BRK Jarrett Allen - Awesome player for Brooklyn. Traded for James Harden. Resigned by CLE at $20M/yr
23 TOR OG Anunoby - Quality starter for Toronto. Resigned at $17M a year. Good value.
24 UTA Tyler Lydon - A bust. Out of league.
25 ORL Anžejs Pasečņiks - A bust. Out of the league.

Of those 25 players, only 7, Tatum, Fox, Isaac, Mitchell, Adebayo, J.Collins, and Anunoby, were retained by the team that drafted them. All of them were better than Rui is now. Tatum, Mitchell and Adebayo were superstars and no-brainers to resign at max contracts. Anunoby was a value signing. Fox, Isaac and J.Collins are useful players but probably overpaid.

There are 6 other rotation-caliber players from that group: Fultz, Ball, Markkanen, Monk, Kennard, Allen. The rest are busts or journeymen. Of those rotation-caliber players, Allen and Ball are clearly better than Rui and are therefore not really a comparison for Rui. And Monk was resigned for the vet-minimum which isn't really a risk for the signer so he is not a comparison either.

I'd say the players from that draft class that probably resemble Rui's situation are Markkanen, Kennard, and Fultz. All 3 demonstrated that they were legit NBA players, but it was far from certain whether they projected to be quality starters or not. Markkanen and Fultz were signed for $17M. Kennard, $15M. Are any of those teams particularly happy with those signings? I doubt it.

The point is, if the player isn't clearly a starting-caliber player by the end of his rookie deal, it's not wise to resign him to significant money and then hope and pray.

You can do the same analysis from the 2016 draft class. Guys that weren't obvious stars or clear starters (Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Murray, Sabonis, Poeltl) ended up being disappointing on their second contract (Hield, Prince, LeVert, Beasley).

We are all frustrated, but when your frustration has a negative impact you should take a stepback and become introspective. It is your mentality that leaves the Wizards mired in mediocrity. It's why we moved on from Troy Brown Jr. way to early. Why Kelly Oubre has been gone for years and is just entering his prime. Why Otto Porter Jr. was overpaid and ultimately traded for nothing.

These examples only prove my point, not yours.

We moved on from Troy Brown and it was the right move. The guy hasn't done anything. Instead, we turned him into a better player. Otto Porter was resigned, but for too much money, which ended up being a mistake. It created a luxtax problem that ultimately resulted in us dumping Oubre and then Porter himself. Fortunately, dumping Porter turned out to be a good move because injuries sapped his ability. I was upset that we dumped Oubre because of the Porter mismanagement, but even that turned out to be not such a problem. Oubre has bounced around as a free agent since. The real problem was that we dumped Oubre under duress. If we could have turned him into a future 1st, it would have been a good move.

Where does your approach leave a team that doesn’t find a superstar?

[prime1time]

Chris Singleton, 3 years and gone. Jan Vesely, 2 years here. Javale McGee 3 years and traded. Nick Young 4 years and traded. Jarvis Hayes, Jared Jeffries, Juan Dixon all the same thing.

So let’s cut the charade. Every team evaluates players when they are getting close to the end of the first contract. That’s not a good team or a bad team thing. What I’m saying, and judging by your push back you disagree with, is that we should consider keeping players that might not be superstars because they still have value. Why must a team move a player that is good enough to play significant minutes for an opposing team?

What you are pushing for is our normal operating procedures. Ultimately, you have to resolve the fact that on the one hand, you are pushing an approach that has led to our ineptitude but on the other hand, you’re are complaining about our ineptitude. The end result of your, “this is what good teams do” is the Wizards. The Wizards of the last 40 years is what you get when you don’t draft a star. And this goes back to my initial post. Don’t complain when your plan is implemented. What you should say is that you are willing to deal with the ineptitude because you believe in your approach.

[doclinkin]

Chris Singleton, 3 years and gone. Jan Vesely, 2 years here. Javale McGee 3 years and traded. Nick Young 4 years and traded. Jarvis Hayes, Jared Jeffries, Juan Dixon all the same thing.

To be clear, you believe we should have kept these players?

[nate33]

Where does your approach leave a team that doesn’t find a superstar?

You tank and try again. Fill in the holes with cheap free agents.

You don't sign not-so-good players to big money 2nd contracts that hamper long term flexibility and then just hope and pray that they pan out. Once a pick has demonstrated that he is not headed for stardom, you don't throw good money after bad.

I'm not saying that we cut Rui right now or anything. He is under contract for one more year. But I'm saying I no longer consider him all that untouchable. We should keep our eye open for a trade where we can turn him into an asset that we control for a longer period of time (like a pick or a rookie contract guy on his first or second year). In the meantime, we can continue to develop him and hope that he turns a corner and becomes and OG Anunoby tier player. But if, by the Trade Deadline next year, that doesn't look like it's happening, I'd trade him for a pick if possible.

If we wait until his rookie contract expires, he will become a neutral value "asset" - in other words, no value. We could either resign him, or use the money to sign a free agent of equivalent ability but who fits our roster better.

[nate33]

Chris Singleton, 3 years and gone. Jan Vesely, 2 years here. Javale McGee 3 years and traded. Nick Young 4 years and traded. Jarvis Hayes, Jared Jeffries, Juan Dixon all the same thing.

And in hindsight, it was the right thing in all cases that we let them walk. None of those guys ever accomplished anything after they left the Wizards.

What I’m saying, and judging by your push back you disagree with, is that we should consider keeping players that might not be superstars because they still have value.

No. They don't. If you have to pay a market price to retain them, then they have neutral value. If we are going to pay market price for someone, that someone should be the most perfect fit possible. Better to shop among the entire free agent market for an ideal fit than just retain a guy who is not an ideal fit. Either way, you are paying market value, so the player is no longer a positive asset. If nothing else, bringing in a new guy at least has the possibility of an unexpected improvement because that new guy was misused in his old system and has better synergy here. All else being equal, the unknown has more upside than the known.

[prime1time]

I'm done debating about whether or not we should keep him. The reality is the argument has shifted - necessarily so - to an abstract argument about only extending stars. Which is to say that it has nothing to do with Rui as a player. As for Rui the player, I suspect that the haters will continue to stay away from this thread. I've watched him very closely these past several games. He can knock down open 3's. For the season Rui is 32/62 from 3 and when you add in the playoffs from last year, Rui is 41/77 from 3 in his last 31 games. I can hear it now, "Bbbut, the numbers will drop off." Irrelevant. He can make open 3's period. If teams give it to him, he will make them pay. Good defenses will not give it to him and thus Rui's presence will open up the lane for Beal.

For the month of March Rui is averaging 55.7% from the field and 55% from 3. When you dig deeper, however, Rui's efficiency is even more impressive. This season we've basically removed any easy PnR shots from Rui's game. The previous 2 seasons Rui shot 50% from 2 and 51.9% from 2. This season Rui is only shooting 47.3% from 2. Yet, because of his 3-point shooting he currently has the highest fg% of his career. And the way he's trending, it is very likely that he will end up being over 50% from the field for the season. This season Rui has basically been reduced to a spot-up 3-point shooter and a player who sporadically gets opportunities. Even with that being the case, however, offensively Rui has started to break out.

You can knock him for not rebounding. You can knock him for not getting more blocks. You can knock him for not getting more steals. But the reality is that he can flat out score. Even before he was knocking down 3's he could score. Now that he is knocking down 3's, offensively, he's a juggernaut. Every year Rui has been on the team his offensive role has changed. From his rookie year, where he could just do what he wanted offensively, to last year where Russ and Beal's high usage dominated the game to this year where the arrival of Kyle Kuzma and KCP has basically made him a spot-up shooter.

The question is no longer if Rui will be a "good player." He is. The only question is whether or not he'll be a good player for the Wizards or a good player on another team. GIve Rui a competent pg who can genuinely set him up for easy looks and you'll be talking about a player that is extremely efficient offensively. And in the easy points that he could get when a smaller defender switches on to him and from the PnR and you have a very good offensive player. People can try to deny his offensive ability all they want but the proof is in the numbers.

Perhaps the most exciting thing, however, is that Hachimura is really just scratching the surface. As was pointed out when we drafted him, Hachimura is a late bloomer. He started playing basketball way later than the average player. And the fact that he's shown the ability to improve his shooting (a very challenging aspect of one's game to improve) forces us to wonder how he can improve other parts of his game. Moving Hachimura for anything other than a star would be malpractice.

[nate33]

I'm done debating about whether or not we should keep him. The reality is the argument has shifted - necessarily so - to an abstract argument about only extending stars. Which is to say that it has nothing to do with Rui as a player. As for Rui the player, I suspect that the haters will continue to stay away from this thread. I've watched him very closely these past several games. He can knock down open 3's. For the season Rui is 32/62 from 3 and when you add in the playoffs from last year, Rui is 41/77 from 3 in his last 31 games. I can hear it now, "Bbbut, the numbers will drop off." Irrelevant. He can make open 3's period. If teams give it to him, he will make them pay. Good defenses will not give it to him and thus Rui's presence will open up the lane for Beal.

For the month of March Rui is averaging 55.7% from the field and 55% from 3. When you dig deeper, however, Rui's efficiency is even more impressive. This season we've basically removed any easy PnR shots from Rui's game. The previous 2 seasons Rui shot 50% from 2 and 51.9% from 2. This season Rui is only shooting 47.3% from 2. Yet, because of his 3-point shooting he currently has the highest fg% of his career. And the way he's trending, it is very likely that he will end up being over 50% from the field for the season. This season Rui has basically been reduced to a spot-up 3-point shooter and a player who sporadically gets opportunities. Even with that being the case, however, offensively Rui has started to break out.

You can knock him for not rebounding. You can knock him for not getting more blocks. You can knock him for not getting more steals. But the reality is that he can flat out score. Even before he was knocking down 3's he could score. Now that he is knocking down 3's, offensively, he's a juggernaut. Every year Rui has been on the team his offensive role has changed. From his rookie year, where he could just do what he wanted offensively, to last year where Russ and Beal's high usage dominated the game to this year where the arrival of Kyle Kuzma and KCP has basically made him a spot-up shooter.

The question is no longer if Rui will be a "good player." He is. The only question is whether or not he'll be a good player for the Wizards or a good player on another team. GIve Rui a competent pg who can genuinely set him up for easy looks and you'll be talking about a player that is extremely efficient offensively. And in the easy points that he could get when a smaller defender switches on to him and from the PnR and you have a very good offensive player. People can try to deny his offensive ability all they want but the proof is in the numbers.

Perhaps the most exciting thing, however, is that Hachimura is really just scratching the surface. As was pointed out when we drafted him, Hachimura is a late bloomer. He started playing basketball way later than the average player. And the fact that he's shown the ability to improve his shooting (a very challenging aspect of one's game to improve) forces us to wonder how he can improve other parts of his game. Moving Hachimura for anything other than a star would be malpractice.

I'm not ruling out Rui either. If he continues to shoot like this, that's a massive shift in his favor.

My biggest concern is that he is starting to post the scoring numbers that get you paid, but the intangibles (rebounding, defense, off ball activity) are often the deciding factor in whether or not you are a winning player. It's possible that he will cost a hefty sum to retain, but ultimately won't be worth it in terms of actually winning games.

That said, I note that some of his non-scoring numbers are looking up after a somewhat lackluster final 3 weeks of February. On the season, he is now posting slightly better per-possession numbers than last year in defensive rebounding, steals and blocks. Steals in particular have made a big jump from 1.1 to 1.7. (His offensive rebounding is understandably down since he is spending more time behind the arc.) Let's hope he keeps it up.

[DCZards]

It also looks like Rui’s midrange game is starting to come around. He’ll need that in his arsenal.

[NatP4]

Or G-League players. Daishen Nix? Or even Joel Ayayi?

I don't know what to make of Nix. I thought he looked lousy for Ignite last season, but this season he's looked dramatically better. And he's got that weird size for a PG - even bigger than Marcus Smart - he might play that kind of role in the NBA? Looks like Houston's gonna give him a chance to play.

Nix put up 23-8-6-2 per 36 (while playing 34 minutes a game) on 60% TS. Arguably the best player in the entire G league and just turned 20.

14 points 6 assists 4 rebounds 3 steals per36 on 61% TS per 36 in the NBA. Only 100 minutes of playing time, but still crazy good numbers. Raptor player ratings absolutely loves him. The only thing I was up in the air on when watching his high school footage, was the defense. Wasn’t sure that he really cared on that end or had the lateral quickness, but he’s been really good defensively in the NBA.

It’s not crazy to say that Nix is one of the best young prospects in the league. He never even played college ball, just went straight to the g league as a 19 year old and just dominated. He almost looks like the next James Harden if you’re really optimistic. He’ll be an all star in 2 years.

[WallToWall]

Rui should be taking more 3’s. He has got into a habit of passing the ball out of open 3’s, if he for whatever reason, isn’t feeling it. I would instead like to see him drive with the ball and take a mid range shot, which he is also adept in doing, instead of passing the ball. He should drive and create that mid range for himself rather than pass the ball. Who knows…he may even get fouled in the process. This is one difference between a passive Rui and an active Rui.

[Dark Faze]

I think it's clear he needs more minutes. We should be starting Ish/KCP/Kuz/Rui/Porzingis moving forward.

I still have no idea what kind of contract he'll be worth in the summer of 2023, but he needs more reps.

[payitforward]

Rui should be taking more 3’s.....

Rui's taking just over 5 3pas per 40 minutes. As a % of his shots, that's a bit below average for an NBA PF. He'd need to take @1 more to get to average.

It seems a no-brainer to say he should do that, since he's shooting 3s at 51% & 2s at 48%. This, however,

(But)..., if he for whatever reason, isn’t feeling it.... I would instead like to see him drive with the ball and take a mid range shot, which he is also adept in doing, instead of passing the ball. He should drive and create that mid range for himself rather than pass the ball....

doesn't make the same sense. First off, in what sense is he "adept" at driving with the ball then rising for a mid-range shot? & when has he shown himself to be "adept" at "drive and create... for himself?"

Moreover, the team doesn't get an extra shot if Rui does that rather than pass the ball! I.e. you are suggesting he shoot a mid-range instead of someone else taking a shot. Rui shoots the two-ball at under 48%. Why do you want him to do that?

[DCZards]

First off, in what sense is he "adept" at driving with the ball then rising for a mid-range shot? & when has he shown himself to be "adept" at "drive and create... for himself?"

Moreover, the team doesn't get an extra shot if Rui does that rather than pass the ball! I.e. you are suggesting he shoot a mid-range instead of someone else taking a shot. Rui shoots the two-ball at under 48%. Why do you want him to do that?

Yes, Rui struggles when he tries to handle and create for himself. He’s a much better midrange shooter when he flashes into the paint and shoots off of a pass from a teammate. That’s the aspect of his midrange game that’s improved over the course of the season.

[payitforward]

True enough. But, if we're talking about shot selection, then I still want him taking 3's. In fact, I'd rather he take a higher % of them than he does know.

But, if WalltoWall wants more 3PAs from Rui along with more shots "instead of passing the ball," those extra shots will have to come from someone else, from another player. They aren't going to magically appear just so Rui can let fly!

&, anyway, even if they did (which, obviously, is impossible) I still want them to be 3-point attempts! After all, right now, every 10 3PAs Rui attempts yield over 15 points for the team. Every 10 2PAs he takes yield under 10 points for the team.

[DCZards]

Don't sleep on the importance of the midrange game, PIF. I too want Rui to shoot more 3s but I'd like to see him have a proficient midrange game as well.

Kawhi, Chris Paul, DeRozan, Booker, Durant, Embiid, Aldridge and others have proven year in and year out that there's still a place for the midrange shot in the NBA.

[payitforward]

Absolutely, Zards! Every part of the game is important. It all counts. & it would be great if Rui became good at every part of the game -- including the midrange.

But, he isn't good at every part of the game. Well... for that matter, no one is equally good at all aspects of the game! So, yes, like you I want him to improve.

The problem is that, except for his 3-point shooting, Rui isn't really improving his numbers. Don't get me wrong -- all in all, he's a bit better than he was as a rookie & easily better than last year. But it's entirely due to his improved 3-point accuracy & volume.

Aside from the 3's, Rui's gotten a little worse on the rest of the stuff overall than he was as a rookie or last year. His 2 pt. % is down. His FT % is down. He's getting to the line less. His defensive rebounds are down. His offensive rebounds are way down. His assists are down. & his turnovers are a little up. He makes up for some of this, because his fouls are a little down & his steals & blocks are a little up.

The result is that in his 3d year he is, overall, a little bit better player. That's good -- especially the way his off-season & the early part of this season went.

[prime1time]

Absolutely, Zards! Every part of the game is important. It all counts. & it would be great if Rui became good at every part of the game -- including the midrange.

But, he isn't good at every part of the game. Well... for that matter, no one is equally good at all aspects of the game! So, yes, like you I want him to improve.

The problem is that, except for his 3-point shooting, Rui isn't really improving his numbers. Don't get me wrong -- all in all, he's a bit better than he was as a rookie & easily better than last year. But it's entirely due to his improved 3-point accuracy & volume.

Aside from the 3's, Rui's gotten a little worse on the rest of the stuff overall than he was as a rookie or last year. His 2 pt. % is down. His FT % is down. He's getting to the line less. His defensive rebounds are down. His offensive rebounds are way down. His assists are down. & his turnovers are a little up. He makes up for some of this, because his fouls are a little down & his steals & blocks are a little up.

The result is that in his 3d year he is, overall, a little bit better player. That's good -- especially the way his off-season & the early part of this season went.

He hasn't gotten worse. His role has changed. This is what happens when you only focus on stats. We've basically eliminated easy points from his game. We use him as a spot up 3-point shooter. Unless it's a fast break the vast majority of his 2-point shots, he creates from scratch. That's why his 2 point fg% has dropped. We need to stop pushing this narrative that a player is worse at something because his percentages have gone down. How many players just get worse randomly?