2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[WizarDynasty]

2nd to final list:

Tier 1 - Revolutionize the game tier
None

Tier 2 - Your franchise 'engine'
1. F Cooper Flagg
2. G Dylan Harper

Tier 3 - Weakness of the draft - High level starting quality talent
3. SG V.J. Edgecombe
4. SG Tre Johnson
5. SF Ace Bailey (Ace is really b/w 3rd/4th tiers IMO)

Tier 4 - Depth of the draft - Potential solid starters & high level role players.

6. PG Jeremiah Fears
7. FC Derik Queen
8. FC Danny Wolf
9. GF Will Riley
10. F Noah Penda
11. PG Kasparas Jakucionis
12. C Thomas Sorber
13. F Carter Bryant
14. C Khaman Maluach
15. PG Walter Clayton Jr
16. PG Nolan Traore
17. FC Collin Murray-Boyles
18. GF Kon Knueppel
19. SG Jase Richardson
20. PG Ben Saraf
21. GF Hugo Gonzalez

Tier 5 - Continued depth of the draft - guys that can develop into solid role players or fringe starters.

22. C Hansen Yang
23. FC Noa Essengue
24. FC Asa Newell
25. FC Rasheer Fleming
26. GF Cedric Coward
27. GF Neoklis Avdalas
28. C Maxime Raynaud
29. G Nique Clifford
30. F Adou Thiero
31. GF Egor Demin
32. C Joan Beringer
33. SF Liam McNeeley
34. C Johni Broome

Tier 6 - Tier most impacted by returnees. Potential role players, depth, projects.

35. PF Bogoljub Markovic
36. PF Alex Toohey
37. SG Drake Powell
38. C Ryan Kalkbrenner
39. PG Javon Small
40. C Rocco Zikarsky
41. GF Sion James
42. SG Koby Brea
43. C Amari Williams
44. G Kam Jones

Tier 7 - Two-ways, exhibit 10s, G-league...
44. PF Eric Dixon
45. G Hunter Sallis
46. G Tyrese Proctor
47. GF Jamir Watkins
48. SG John Tonje
49. C Yanic Konan Niederhauser
50. F Grant Nelson
51. PG Ryan Nembhard
52. PG Mark Sears
53. C Vladisav Goldin
54. G Max Shugla
54. F R.J. Luis Jr
55. G Tamar Bates
56. G Alijah Martin
57. G Caleb Love
58. GF Kobe Saunders

This is terrific, Dat -- &, based on more conventional mocks I've seen, if we traded down with NJ (6, 18, & 40 for 8, 26, 27 & 36), it looks like we might well be able to grab Will Riley (8), Danny Wolf (26), Noah Penda (27), & Hugo Gonzalez (36).

We would have gotten your 8th, 9th, 10th, & 21st best prospects by using the 8th, 26th, 27th & 36th pick -- obviously a very positive draft!

Someone who scores 2,000 points volume shooting above .50 percent. Engine has nothing to do with defense. what players here can you see averaging 25 points per game above .50 percent as their ceiling? that would be a pretty good discussion.

[payitforward]

Sure! but defense is important all the same. Overall, defense is exactly as significant as offense.

[closg00]

This is a fantastic watch guys, those of you who advocate trading down are going to love it.

Watch on YouTube

[WizarDynasty]

Sure! but defense is important all the same. Overall, defense is exactly as significant as offense.

No because scoring efficiently with volume against good defense is a goat trait.

Defense is always passive. Offense dictates defense.
Without high volume efficient points against good defense you are never going to consistently win.
Defense only means that whoever you play is less efficient at scoring volume than your team.
A basketball game is always a battle of volume and efficiency.
Scoring with volume is always most valuable and then you have to stop prevent the other team from being equal to or better at scoring with volume and efficiency.
Your volume plus scoring efficiency over .50 percent player is your queen in chess.

Castle to protect your king is defense.
The goal of the game is to score more points than your opponent.

Goats in game score with both volume and efficiency . over .50 percent
Defense is nothing more than reducing efficiency with volume so if you have a player who consistent has high efficiency over .50 percent with volume against good defense, he is more valuable than a guy who shows low efficiency with volume against good defense.
Defense is never as significant as offense.. is nothing than a battle of efficiencies with volume.

Having multiple engines..or queens eho can score volume above .50 percent on your team is more important than having a bunch of support pieces such as knights or bishops...who efficiency deips below .50 percent as volume increases against good defense.
No defensive specialist can ever match the value of an efficient volume scorer. Now if you an effiecient volume scorer who is also elite defensively, then you are looking at prime Shaq, prime Wilt. Even Wembys body broke down once you forced him to score with volume at 2,000 points.

[pcbothwel]

Sure! but defense is important all the same. Overall, defense is exactly as significant as offense.

While I agree broadly, a really good coach with high IQ/motor players can be a high level defense.
Defense can be limited be your weakest link, while offense can be limited by your strongest.
A great offensive player and take over a game on that end. But a great defensive player can be avoided like Deion in the 90’s. Teams can just pick on your weakest and avoid your strongest.

[DCZards]

Just as a great scorer can help you win games, a great defender can limit that scorer to the point that it impacts the outcome of the game.

This current NBA finals is showing that you need a very good offensive player and a very good defense to win big.

As good as those Jordan Bulls teams were on offense, we shouldn’t overlook that they had two of the all-time best defenders—MJ & Pippen. That shyxt matters.

[AFM]

2nd to final list:

Tier 1 - Revolutionize the game tier
None

Tier 2 - Your franchise 'engine'
1. F Cooper Flagg
2. G Dylan Harper

Tier 3 - Weakness of the draft - High level starting quality talent
3. SG V.J. Edgecombe
4. SG Tre Johnson
5. SF Ace Bailey (Ace is really b/w 3rd/4th tiers IMO)

Tier 4 - Depth of the draft - Potential solid starters & high level role players.

6. PG Jeremiah Fears
7. FC Derik Queen
8. FC Danny Wolf
9. GF Will Riley
10. F Noah Penda
11. PG Kasparas Jakucionis
12. C Thomas Sorber
13. F Carter Bryant
14. C Khaman Maluach
15. PG Walter Clayton Jr
16. PG Nolan Traore
17. FC Collin Murray-Boyles
18. GF Kon Knueppel
19. SG Jase Richardson
20. PG Ben Saraf
21. GF Hugo Gonzalez

Tier 5 - Continued depth of the draft - guys that can develop into solid role players or fringe starters.

22. C Hansen Yang
23. FC Noa Essengue
24. FC Asa Newell
25. FC Rasheer Fleming
26. GF Cedric Coward
27. GF Neoklis Avdalas
28. C Maxime Raynaud
29. G Nique Clifford
30. F Adou Thiero
31. GF Egor Demin
32. C Joan Beringer
33. SF Liam McNeeley
34. C Johni Broome

Tier 6 - Tier most impacted by returnees. Potential role players, depth, projects.

35. PF Bogoljub Markovic
36. PF Alex Toohey
37. SG Drake Powell
38. C Ryan Kalkbrenner
39. PG Javon Small
40. C Rocco Zikarsky
41. GF Sion James
42. SG Koby Brea
43. C Amari Williams
44. G Kam Jones

Tier 7 - Two-ways, exhibit 10s, G-league...
44. PF Eric Dixon
45. G Hunter Sallis
46. G Tyrese Proctor
47. GF Jamir Watkins
48. SG John Tonje
49. C Yanic Konan Niederhauser
50. F Grant Nelson
51. PG Ryan Nembhard
52. PG Mark Sears
53. C Vladisav Goldin
54. G Max Shugla
54. F R.J. Luis Jr
55. G Tamar Bates
56. G Alijah Martin
57. G Caleb Love
58. GF Kobe Saunders

This is terrific, Dat -- &, based on more conventional mocks I've seen, if we traded down with NJ (6, 18, & 40 for 8, 26, 27 & 36), it looks like we might well be able to grab Will Riley (8), Danny Wolf (26), Noah Penda (27), & Hugo Gonzalez (36).

We would have gotten your 8th, 9th, 10th, & 21st best prospects by using the 8th, 26th, 27th & 36th pick -- obviously a very positive draft!

Someone who scores 2,000 points volume shooting above .50 percent. Engine has nothing to do with defense. what players here can you see averaging 25 points per game above .50 percent as their ceiling? that would be a pretty good discussion.

We need a potential engine tier list

[pcbothwel]

Just as a great scorer can help you win games, a great defender can limit that scorer to the point that it impacts the outcome of the game.

This current NBA finals is showing that you need a very good offensive player and a very good defense to win big.

As good as those Jordan Bulls teams were on offense, we shouldn’t overlook that they had two of the all-time best defenders—MJ & Pippen. That shyxt matters.

Again. On paper that matters, and more so in the 90's/2000's iso ball era. A good offensive coach can scheme against "All-Time" defenders and target weak ones on a switch.
A great offensive player can be so dominant that they force your defense to play 3 Vs 4. Caruso, Dort, and Dyson Daniels can be had in a trade with minimal effort... Desmond Bane as a 3rd option just went for 4 1st.
Im not defending (No pun intended) one vs the other, im just looking at the facts.

[closg00]

So-many teams trying to trade up, including us, I wonder what the value of our 18th pick is? Also, what greedy bastards that OKC.

Read on Twitter

[payitforward]

A basketball game is always a battle of volume and efficiency. ...

Absolutely! To put it more concretely, you can win by having more possessions than your opponent, by shooting a higher overall TS% than your opponent, or by doing both. If you do neither, it is impossible to win.

What your idea of an "engine" does is he shoots a high TS% on significant volume. That helps you win -- no doubt.

A guy does who is a strong rebounder, gets steals, & doesn't turn it over much -- that guy helps you win by increasing possessions.

A strong defender on the ball lowers your opponent's scoring efficiency. A strong defender off the ball does the same. Ditto a guy who defends effectively w/o fouling. Ditto a guy who gets above average # of steals (w/o compromising other aspects of his defense).

Those guys hold down opponent efficiency & the number of shots opponents get. Same effect on wins as shooting a high % on high volume.

[payitforward]

Just as a great scorer can help you win games, a great defender can limit that scorer to the point that it impacts the outcome of the game.

This current NBA finals is showing that you need a very good offensive player and a very good defense to win big.

As good as those Jordan Bulls teams were on offense, we shouldn’t overlook that they had two of the all-time best defenders—MJ & Pippen. That shyxt matters.

Absolutely -- & let's not forget Dennis Rodman, another great defender & rebounder!

[dckingsfan]

So-many teams trying to trade up, including us, I wonder what the value of our 18th pick is? Also, what greedy bastards that OKC.

I think the key is the flatness of the draft after 8 and through 20. It makes sense to try to trade up 8 spots if you are Boston for example (especially if it doesn't cost you too much). If I have the 19th pick, no way am I trading down unless I get something I see as valuable in a future draft.

My 1/2 cent.

[NatP4]

Numbers on Essengue:


1st half of season: 29 games played, 22:59 minutes played/game, per36:

15.99 points
7.22 rebounds
1.8 assists
1.04 steals
0.78 blocks
1.04 turnovers
3.74 fouls

FG: 49%
3PT%: 21%
FT%: 68.2%
TS: 59.2%

2nd half of season played, 29 games, 23:14 minutes played/game, per36:

17.98 points
8.3 rebounds
1.7 assists
1.5 steals
0.77 blocks
2.0 turnovers
4.3 fouls

FG: 52.9%
3PT: 30.4%
FT: 70.0%
TS: 64.4%

[dckingsfan]

This is a fantastic watch guys, those of you who advocate trading down are going to love it.

What he isn't saying is that the better teams draft better and later. Rinse/Repeat.

So if a bad drafting team trades down - they are even worse

[The Consiglieri]

Unless we can get into the top 2 the thing I’m most confident in for this draft is that we should not trade up. No need to cash in even minor assets to take a player that is likely in the same tier!!

I don't think they're in the same tier. I think 3, 4, and 5 are in a tier above 6-20.

Yep, me too.

I think what separates 3-4, from 5-6 is the combo of higher ceiling, and much higher floors.

Do I think a guy or two at 5 or 6 (or 7-8) could end up being better than VJ or Bailey or Harper? Sure, but I think that if you just lay out odds, the odds that 3 and 4 are the prospects with the higher floor and higher ceiling than the collection of guys going in that 5-6 and later zone are just very, very, very much higher. like 3-1 or 4-1 or 5-1. I think Maluach, and Fears could be stars, I think the key reason Kon is so heavily rumored inside the top 5 is simply the fact that teams know exactly what they are going to get at minimum from him and he can be plugged in and be an excellent 4th guy on a great team and playoff contenders in that 2-8 zone of the class will almost certainly love the "known knowns" about a guy like Kon. You aren't missing on Kon, he can be the third or fourth best guy on a 50 win team. With Fears, Maluach, Tre etc, you just may end up with a chucker, a smallish PG who never develops into anything special, or a limited big man who never quite figures out the upside thing. Kon, on the other hand, is gonna be Kon, period. You know that, and even w/the limitations, you know the #1 team in college could turn to Kon when the #1 pick in the draft, and a superstar prospect went down, and not miss a beat (28-5-8 and 2 3's, 17-4-3 and 3 3's in the semifinal, 18-8-3 in the conference title game).....

But yeah, if I'm taking VJ, or Harper, I'm pretty damn sure I'm getting a good or very good NBA player, and maybe better than that, and with Bailey, you've got a higher ceiling than any of them, the floor is lower probably than both of the former guys, but the ceiling is best player in the draft level high. Maluach, Tre, Kon, and Fears have a worrisome mix of ceilings and floors (Maluach and Tre probably have the highest ceilings, Fears the lowest floor, and Kon the most likely outcome is a solid player, not good or great, not bad). That's why landing that top 4 pick was so damn critical, and at worst, the 5th. The draft is, not to every FO, but in an overall consensus, clearly 1-2, 3-4, 5-8, 9-below (to me anyway). And unless somebody surprisingly falls to 5 (as often happens), the 5-8 zone aint all that different from 9-25ish.

[AFM]

New Coward video

Watch on YouTube

[9 and 20]

If Ace falls to 5, I bet we swap with the Jazz. They move up from 21 to 18 and maybe we throw in Kispert and/or 40.

They get the Jazz wet dream draft haul of Kon, Demin, and Kispert. We get Ace and someone at 21.

[payitforward]

The only real difference in numbers between Edgecombe & Fears is their turnovers -- Fears turned the ball over 2 more times per 40 minutes. Otherwise, the two guys were equally productive -- very productive both of them.

Does that put Edgecombe on a different tier?

[payitforward]

...Tre, Kon, and Fears have a worrisome mix of ceilings and floors (Maluach and Tre probably have the highest ceilings, Fears the lowest floor

Why does Fears have the lowest floor?
Why does Tre have the highest ceiling?
What's your thinking here...?

[payitforward]

If Ace falls to 5, I bet we swap with the Jazz. They move up from 21 to 18 and maybe we throw in Kispert and/or 40.

Why would we need to swap with them? If they want Ace, they'll take him. If they don't want him he'll be there at 6.

They're not going to take a guy they don't want just to force a move from 21 to 18.