2025-26 Lineup Thread -- How's it shakin out?

[AFM]

Every PIF Doc interaction

[nate33]

So... you're saying that if Cam improves a whole lot he'll be a better player. & he'll be worth more to the team -- on court & in any potential transaction. Is that it? No surprise that I agree entirely, at least i hope it's no surprise.

No. His point is that some skills and rarer and more valuable in this league, and it's worth investing in the guys who have those rare skills.

Champagne is a sound player who takes what the defense gives while making few mistakes. That's great, but those guys can only thrive if they have one or two defensive-bending teammates who allow the Champagne types to operate against off-balance defenders. And those guys are much harder to find.

Cam Whitmore has the potential to be one of those defense-benders because he has already demonstrated the ability to score on high volume at a respectable efficiency. (By "respectable", I mean roughly the same as or just below the efficiency of his team overall.)

Generally speaking, it's easier for a young player to improve efficiency than it is for a young player to improve volume. A high volume scorer with average efficiency has more star potential than a high efficiency scorer on low volume - even if the high efficiency/low volume guy is technically a more helpful NBA player at the moment.

[doclinkin]

My entire point consisted in the following: don't simply make Cam the starter. Make Cam earn it.

The former would NOT be good for the development of a gifted kid. The latter would, one hopes, both provide & reward the motivation Cam clearly seems to need (based on his 2 years in the league so far) to develop towards his obviously high ceiling.

Did Alex Sarr earn it? He started every game he played. Did Bub Carrington earn it? Kyshawn George was a worse player than Champagnie or Corey Kispert. Started more games than them.

Despite the CAPITAL LETTERS I don’t know that giving Whitmore extended run with starters is absolutely a worse way to motivate him than benching him.

Ime Udoka is a good coach. He tried benching him but that doesn’t seem to be the thing that improved his game. Try it different.

Some people respond better by being given more responsibility and being expected to live up to it. Not looking over their shoulder for a quick hook, but saying we are counting on you. Nobody has your talent. Show em why they were wrong.

Having gone back to watch games I get the sense Whitmore was doing what you see in G league players: gunning for raw stats to get noticed. Kid is hungry to play the game. Loves being out there. Wants to star and sees himself in that role. Ok show me. Show the world.

Similar in my eyes to Jordan Poole. Poole sucked with us initially. But the team let him gun for as long as they could until it seemed like it might hurt his confidence to keep sucking in a high profile way. He was getting crushed by national media and it made him gun harder and worse and more embarrassingly. So they benched him til they could rehab his mojo. And he came back better.

I think with Cam they may go the Jordan Poole route. Tell him: the starting job is yours, do what you do, AND we also need you to play better on defense. Prove to the world what we saw in you. That defense is a skill of yours too. Do both. Many players show a renewed commitment to the game with a change of locale. And here he’s in front of a home town crowd. There will be both rewards, cheers, and teachable moments.

More and more, with Bilal down, I’m thinking we may do what SUPERBALLMAN suggested. Go full youth movement.

The only hitch in that plan is the wounded dignity of world champion Khris Middleton. Seemed a long time before he actually reported to the team, after the Bucks shipped him out the door. Then started every game he played with us. I’d bet he’s burning to play with a contender, not babysitting newbies and rooks. Being benched for worse players could sting even more.

I expect showcasing Middleton early to find him a better situation is probably in the cards. Ship him as soon as there’s a reasonable offer. Then play the top talent their developmental time. Let them lose and use the losses as teachable moments. Lose and improve.

Til we clinch a top 8 pick.

Then next year with a core crew we can worry about who earns and deserves play time based on plus minus and the win/loss column.

[doclinkin]

Scorers can be like wide receivers. Divas with fragile egos. Sometimes you just got to give them the ball and get out the way. Let them learn by failing. Ever tried, ever failed. Try again, fail better.

[payitforward]

So... you're saying that if Cam improves a whole lot he'll be a better player. & he'll be worth more to the team -- on court & in any potential transaction. Is that it? No surprise that I agree entirely, at least i hope it's no surprise.

No. His point is that some skills and rarer and more valuable in this league, and it's worth investing in the guys who have those rare skills....

Ummmm, I believe that is what I just wrote, tho at a slightly more general level. I am *delighted* that we acquired Cam Whitmore (as I have made clear repeatedly), & I think he should (& will) get a ton of minutes this year.

Champagne is a sound player who takes what the defense gives while making few mistakes. That's great, but those guys can only thrive if they have one or two defensive-bending teammates who allow the Champagne types to operate against off-balance defenders. And those guys are much harder to find....

I probably rate him a little higher than you, nate, but basically your point is on the money. OTOH, it ain't easy to find guys who put up overall numbers like Champagnie's.

Better to say, however, that "those guys' teams can only thrive, if...."

Cam Whitmore has the potential to be one of those defense-benders because he has already demonstrated the ability to score on high volume at a respectable efficiency. (By "respectable", I mean roughly the same as or just below the efficiency of his team overall.)...

I don't know whether, overall, your evidential point holds water -- but it doesn't matter. Cam has tremendous potential as a "defense-bender," I agree.

Generally speaking, it's easier for a young player to improve efficiency than it is for a young player to improve volume. A high volume scorer with average efficiency has more star potential than a high efficiency scorer on low volume - even if the high efficiency/low volume guy is technically a more helpful NBA player at the moment.

No question about it. But, of course, the point cuts both ways: there are a lot of high-volume shooters who never get their efficiency to a level where they are making a real/positive difference for their teams.

Again, there is no particular reason to compare these two guys. All I said was that Champagnie's season was under-rated: he's way better than he is getting credit for.

But that has nothing whatever to do with Cam Whitmore! About whom all I said was that he should *earn* the starting job rather than have it handed to him. My reasoning on that subject has nothing to do with basketball, to tell the truth. Just human psychology, esp. young male versions! might be wrong, of course, but not because I underestimate Cam's potential: I don't.

[payitforward]

Scorers can be like wide receivers. Divas with fragile egos. Sometimes you just got to give them the ball and get out the way. Let them learn by failing. Ever tried, ever failed. Try again, fail better.

Just one story, doc, as you know.... They can be the opposite as well. Let's not write Ovid's Metamorphosis about the NBA. (hmmm....)

[payitforward]

My entire point consisted in the following: don't simply make Cam the starter. Let Cam earn it.

The former would NOT be good for the development of a gifted kid. The latter would, one hopes, both provide & reward the motivation Cam clearly seems to need (based on his 2 years in the league so far) to develop towards his obviously high ceiling.

...Despite the CAPITAL LETTERS I don’t know that giving Whitmore extended run with starters is absolutely a worse way to motivate him than benching him.

That's a fair point. "Fair" as in earns a C+ Here's another dimension:

(...but first: we wouldn't be wasting our time like this if it weren't the absolutely lowest off-season moment...)

You're being led by a picture in your mind. A picture of the outcome you want.

Suppose Cam doesn't earn the starting job in camp, but we start him anyway, & he plays badly? What then?

I didn't "bench" him, but now you have to. For his sake. (& no... you don't tank by letting a 3d-year player undo himself)

Of course, that's just another picture in the mind.

Not counting overtime games, there are 19,680 player minutes in the 82-game season. More than enough for Cam to play 2000 while Justin does too. In fact, if Tre, Bub, Ky, Alex, Bilal, Cam & Justin all play 2000+ minutes, there's still plenty of minutes for everyone else.

Sorry to extinguish the tempest in your teapot!

[dckingsfan]

So... you're saying that if Cam improves a whole lot he'll be a better player. & he'll be worth more to the team -- on court & in any potential transaction. Is that it? No surprise that I agree entirely, at least i hope it's no surprise.

No. His point is that some skills and rarer and more valuable in this league, and it's worth investing in the guys who have those rare skills....

Ummmm, I believe that is what I just wrote, tho at a slightly more general level. I am *delighted* that we acquired Cam Whitmore (as I have made clear repeatedly), & I think he should (& will) get a ton of minutes this year.

Champagne is a sound player who takes what the defense gives while making few mistakes. That's great, but those guys can only thrive if they have one or two defensive-bending teammates who allow the Champagne types to operate against off-balance defenders. And those guys are much harder to find....

I probably rate him a little higher than you, nate, but basically your point is on the money. OTOH, it ain't easy to find guys who put up overall numbers like Champagnie's.

Better to say, however, that "those guys' teams can only thrive, if...."

Cam Whitmore has the potential to be one of those defense-benders because he has already demonstrated the ability to score on high volume at a respectable efficiency. (By "respectable", I mean roughly the same as or just below the efficiency of his team overall.)...

I don't know whether, overall, your evidential point holds water -- but it doesn't matter. Cam has tremendous potential as a "defense-bender," I agree.

Generally speaking, it's easier for a young player to improve efficiency than it is for a young player to improve volume. A high volume scorer with average efficiency has more star potential than a high efficiency scorer on low volume - even if the high efficiency/low volume guy is technically a more helpful NBA player at the moment.

No question about it. But, of course, the point cuts both ways: there are a lot of high-volume shooters who never get their efficiency to a level where they are making a real/positive difference for their teams.

Again, there is no particular reason to compare these two guys. All I said was that Champagnie's season was under-rated: he's way better than he is getting credit for.

But that has nothing whatever to do with Cam Whitmore! About whom all I said was that he should *earn* the starting job rather than have it handed to him. My reasoning on that subject has nothing to do with basketball, to tell the truth. I might be wrong, of course, but not because I underestimate Cam's potential: I don't.

Nice points both of you...

Coulibaly, Whitmore, George, Jones and Champagnie (and maybe Sarr) have a lot to do with each other specifically in terms of playing time, evaluation and decisions. Riley will enter the fray later. Yes, they could keep them all.

I have to believe that Dawkins is looking at this and thinking - who do I keep? how do I do this evaluation? how do I get maximum value for Middleton and Kispert (not to mention CJ)?

This is truly a fascinating time. Aligning Keefe's mission with Dawkins' goals and objectives is going to be key. It isn't like the normal scenario where the coach is all about winning and the FO is looking at the long-term of how to keep the team in a winning cycle.

And that is another thing where I give Dawkins credit. Last year they played the youngers at the expense of winning and from the outside it looked like they were in lockstep. From the outside they seem to work well together.

[doclinkin]

That's a fair point. "Fair" as in earns a C+

Ha! First I’ve seen where you take being pedantic to a literal extent, appoint yourself professor of this tomfoolery.

See and I thought I had the doctorate in wasting time. But I’ll cede the field. Age before goofy.

You're being led by a picture in your mind. A picture of the outcome you want.

Suppose Cam doesn't earn the starting job in camp, but we start him anyway, & he plays badly? What then?

I didn't "bench" him, but now you have to. For his sake. (& no... you don't tank by letting a 3d-year player undo himself)

Except that’s exactly what we did with Jordan Poole. It was obvious early that he was playing poorly. We started him well past the point where another team would have benched him.

Sorry to extinguish the tempest in your teapot!

What extinguish. You believe your opinion is fact. That Justin *should* start based on merit.

I believe the team will do what they have been doing: start the players who most need development, based on their talent and projected upside.

So we can bank losses and give young pups teachable moments while those losses are an asset not a liability.

Otherwise yeah if we are starting players based on merit then likely Middleton starts. CJ if he’s healthy and playing anywhere close to his career average. Bagley over Sarr. Champagnie and Anthony Gill. Boom. We win? No. And anyway there’s no future in it.

I’m not anointing Cam starter. I’m saying with Bilal out I bet that’s the direction they go, based on history.

Another factor to consider. We have a team option on Cam after this year. Potential for early extension. I expect they’d like to see what kind of chemistry Cam may develop with the other players who are in our long term future.

Bilal is in the same timeline. Same draft class. So with him out we get an audition period for the new cat without unnecessary competition for minutes between them. So agents don’t have to feel like the team is favoring one or the other. And there’s less internal friction between them. One is rehabbing and working his way back. The other gets a real chance to earn the position without stress to instantly be good or else.

Whereas we have JC locked in on a cheap deal longer. Done deal. No pressure to bet on him over either of the others. We got him.

I do agree with a point you made earlier. I’d bet they prioritize development of Tre this year above most other players. Whoever plays well next to him likely gets the nod.

[doclinkin]

Let's not write Ovid's Metamorphosis about the NBA. (hmmm....)

(One of my favorite things about this board: I’m now reading Metamorphosis.).

[dckingsfan]

Let's not write Ovid's Metamorphosis about the NBA. (hmmm....)

(One of my favorite things about this board: I’m now reading Metamorphosis.).

And for the two of you...

Paths silently cross,
Destinies weave through the night,
Transformation blooms.

[payitforward]

That's a fair point. "Fair" as in earns a C+

Ha! First I’ve seen where you take being pedantic to a literal extent, appoint yourself professor of this tomfoolery.

See and I thought I had the doctorate in wasting time. But I’ll cede the field. Age before goofy....

Don't you call me not goofy. I'm as goofy as it gets!

[dobrojim]

I see now the all JC all the time thread where
this incl the video should have gone.

My bad

Hey PiF
I know you be like'n this

Watch on YouTube

[penbeast0]

...Like CJ, Middleton will be showcased for sale. Kispert has shown he can’t do it. Cam has shown he absolutely can. Long term it’s where he’s a size mismatch. Get him run at the spot so he can develop chemistry. Same way they’ve tried out Bilal in the spot. Kyshawn too....

With all due respect to you and the other optimists, Cam hasn't shown he can absolutely to anything except score at volume in garbage time. He hasn't shown defense, playmaking, rebounding, or the ability to play big minutes consistently. I hope like hell he shows all of those but he has not yet.

Kispert has also shown he can shoot at an NBA level, though as a catch and shoot role player. He also hasn't shown anything else. But Corey has been above league average efficiency every year of his career (barely last year), Cam has been below league average efficiency every year of his. The difference is that while Kispert has shown positive scoring much more consistently over more minutes, he's significantly older and less athletic. So, far less likely to take it up a notch. But saying that Cam is more than just potential is just hope at this point in his career.

[dckingsfan]

...Like CJ, Middleton will be showcased for sale. Kispert has shown he can’t do it. Cam has shown he absolutely can. Long term it’s where he’s a size mismatch. Get him run at the spot so he can develop chemistry. Same way they’ve tried out Bilal in the spot. Kyshawn too....

With all due respect to you and the other optimists, Cam hasn't shown he can absolutely to anything except score at volume in garbage time. He hasn't shown defense, playmaking, rebounding, or the ability to play big minutes consistently. I hope like hell he shows all of those but he has not yet.

Kispert has also shown he can shoot at an NBA level, though as a catch and shoot role player. He also hasn't shown anything else. But Corey has been above league average efficiency every year of his career (barely last year), Cam has been below league average efficiency every year of his. The difference is that while Kispert has shown positive scoring much more consistently over more minutes, he's significantly older and less athletic. So, far less likely to take it up a notch. But saying that Cam is more than just potential is just hope at this point in his career.

Kispert proven himself to be arguably the worst defender on the worst defensive team in the league. So, he has that going for him

[doclinkin]

...Like CJ, Middleton will be showcased for sale. Kispert has shown he can’t do it. Cam has shown he absolutely can. Long term it’s where he’s a size mismatch. Get him run at the spot so he can develop chemistry. Same way they’ve tried out Bilal in the spot. Kyshawn too....

With all due respect to you and the other optimists, Cam hasn't shown he can absolutely to anything except score at volume in garbage time. He hasn't shown defense, playmaking, rebounding, or the ability to play big minutes consistently. I hope like hell he shows all of those but he has not yet.

Note that the role im expecting for Whitmore is akin to the 2/3 version of a guy like Jordan Poole. That is: a talented gunner who will help us lose in the short term. But should be able to rehab his stats to the point where we get better value for him in trade.

And if this front office and coaching staff is any good at what they do then Cam just may prove himself even better than that.

What he can do better than Kispert is beat his opponent with athleticism and create for himself with the ball in his hands. This was what made him a 5 star prospect coming out of high school. And the skill set that got him to the league. He can move quick enough to stay in front of other athletes.

What Kispert has proven he can’t do is exactly that: play guard. Attack with the ball. Stay in front of anybody. We’ve seen it. So no point experimenting with it further.

Cam has had limited minutes to show what he can do. Only 5 starts in his career. But those starts show numbers higher than his career average. Games where he plays higher minutes his usage actually drops despite that his shooting percentages are better. Likely that’s because the coach plays him longer when he’s fitting a team scheme. But maybe two things can be true, when he’s rewarded with PT he guns less and doesn’t try as hard to impress. Either way there’s a teaching opportunity there.

Kispert had 4 years playing for a feeder school for NBA talent. He damn well better know how to play team ball. Cam has been by some accounts a talented knucklehead. Immature. But while Kispert is unlikely to grow better athleticism without scientific intervention, the cure for immaturity is experience.

I’m advocating we do exactly that. Give the more talented athlete all the experience and teaching moments he can handle. See if we can grow him up quicker. See if he responds better to live fire game situations than to benching him and telling him to be better. To be like that guy, the one who’s eating his minutes. Especially when he knows he can destroy that guy one on one.

Let him learn to destroy *opponents* one on one. Then show him why it’s even better to demoralize the opponent by asphyxiating him on defense beating him on both ends. Or setting a screen that makes him wheeze and flinch.

Unless you think there’s any hope of Corey Kispert getting roided up like the 2nd coming of Grandmama Larry Johnson.

[penbeast0]

Kispert proven himself to be arguably the worst defender on the worst defensive team in the league. So, he has that going for him

Hey, only 3rd worst last year (and the year before), though we were the worst OFFENSIVE and Net rtg team in the league and Kispert played significantly less than he had the two previous years so hard to blame too much of it on him.

I completely agree that we give Cam Whitmore and Tre Johnson every opportunity to prove something and am fine with the minutes coming from Kispert like they did last year. I just think the original post I was replying to WAY overstated what Whitmore has proved in this league.

Record: 18-64, Finished 15th in NBA Eastern Conference
Coach: Brian Keefe (18-64)
Executive: Michael Winger
PTS/G: 108.0 (27th of 30) Opp PTS/G: 120.4 (29th of 30)
SRS: -12.13 (30th of 30) Pace: 100.9 (4th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.8 (30th of 30) Def Rtg: 119.1 (27th of 30) Net Rtg: -12.3 (30th of 30)
Expected W-L: 15-67 (30th of 30)

[DCZards]

With all due respect to you and the other optimists, Cam hasn't shown he can absolutely to anything except score at volume in garbage time. He hasn't shown defense, playmaking, rebounding, or the ability to play big minutes consistently. I hope like hell he shows all of those but he has not yet.

Whitmore’s numbers as a starter shows that he’s not just a “garbage time” scorer. He’s a flat out scorer.

Cam Whitmore's stats as a starter are: 20.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 5 career starts, with a field goal percentage of around 58% and 36.3 minutes per game played in those starts, according to StatMuse. His stats in starts are significantly higher than his overall career averages.

[penbeast0]

With all due respect to you and the other optimists, Cam hasn't shown he can absolutely to anything except score at volume in garbage time. He hasn't shown defense, playmaking, rebounding, or the ability to play big minutes consistently. I hope like hell he shows all of those but he has not yet.

Whitmore’s numbers as a starter shows that he’s not just a “garbage time” scorer. He’s a flat out scorer.

Cam Whitmore's stats as a starter are: 20.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 5 career starts, with a field goal percentage of around 58% and 36.3 minutes per game played in those starts, according to StatMuse. His stats in starts are significantly higher than his overall career averages.

I hope you are right. I'm still skeptical about a 5 game sample being strong evidence.

[nate33]

...Like CJ, Middleton will be showcased for sale. Kispert has shown he can’t do it. Cam has shown he absolutely can. Long term it’s where he’s a size mismatch. Get him run at the spot so he can develop chemistry. Same way they’ve tried out Bilal in the spot. Kyshawn too....

With all due respect to you and the other optimists, Cam hasn't shown he can absolutely to anything except score at volume in garbage time. He hasn't shown defense, playmaking, rebounding, or the ability to play big minutes consistently. I hope like hell he shows all of those but he has not yet.

Kispert has also shown he can shoot at an NBA level, though as a catch and shoot role player. He also hasn't shown anything else. But Corey has been above league average efficiency every year of his career (barely last year), Cam has been below league average efficiency every year of his. The difference is that while Kispert has shown positive scoring much more consistently over more minutes, he's significantly older and less athletic. So, far less likely to take it up a notch. But saying that Cam is more than just potential is just hope at this point in his career.

Cam hasn't shown much, but you can't ignore that he was playing on the team with the most forward depth in the league. There were 4 guys in front of him in the rotation who all earn or will soon earn $20M+ a year contracts and would start on most teams: Amen Thompson, Jabari Parker, Tari Eason, and Dillon Brooks. And 3 of those guys are still young and improving so they needed playing time as well. It's tough for a guy like Cam to earn minutes in that situation, particularly for a team that was trying to win.

When Cam actually did get on the court, he posted 21 points and 7 boards per 36 on a .548 TS%, which was roughly the same TS% as the team overall. So he scored on high volume at an efficiency that was not deleterious to the team's efficiency. That's pretty good for a 20-year-old.

Notably, Houston has really wild team statistics where they rank 24th in team TS% (just .002 out of 27th place) but they rank 13th in overall ORtg because they rank 1st by a mile in offensive rebounding. They have terrible spacing but they offset it by crashing the glass with their size. I think it's reasonable to assume that many of the wings on their roster (including Cam) would post a higher TS% on a team with better spacing. They might also post better individual rebounding numbers if they weren't competing with so many other good rebounders.