Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[hands11]

Well, my opinion is that it's absurd to say that 32 games is too small a sample size. And I STILL haven't heard a peep about his defense from the folks who are arguing with me.

GA's defense sucks and needs to get a LOT better.

That is because there is no defense for his defense. That is where the leap of faith comes in that hopefully on a team that he is the SG without the PG duties, where Wall is playing great D, with newly added defensive players, that Gil will improve his defense. I don't think that is to much of a stretch.

[montestewart]

Well, my opinion is that it's absurd to say that 32 games is too small a sample size. And I STILL haven't heard a peep about his defense from the folks who are arguing with me.

GA's defense sucks and needs to get a LOT better.

For the more hopeful among us, it's worth noting that Arenas playing the 2 last year (and that really is a small sample) produced a higher PER and a lower opponent PER. The opponent PER was still pretty bad at the 2 (18+), but the differential was more than 4 at SG, and barely +1 at PG. Maybe that won't project to a full season with the same results, but there are enough variables in play (Wall, break up of the stagnant predictability of the big-3, perhaps a more hustling, defensive style) that might have a positive effect, and I still recall Arenas in his first two years playing next to Hughes and giving more effort to defense.

Unlike Jamison, who seemed nearly incapable of playing defense, I think of Arenas' defensive shortcomings are more mental than physical, because in the beginning, I frequently saw him play defense that would be nearly average/adequate on a decent defensive team. Then, he just stopped trying. To me it's a question of effort and priorities. If he devoted himself to improving that part of his game, he might produce at the 2 a PER differential significantly higher than +4, and if he doesn't care about that aspect of his game, that +4 might prove to be an illusion, as might his continued place on the team. It's a risk, but I'd like to see him next to Wall, to see if the changed dynamic has an effect on him.

[Ruzious]

Ruz


You say that like it is a fact. It isn't. It is an opinion. It's a negative one while some people have more positive ones. Nothing more so lets not confuse opinion with fact.

Of course it's my opinion. That's what we're discussing - opinions!

Well it's didn't read like one. You wrote it as a fact.

In my opionion, you are stating that as a fact, and you are wrong. I've said it's my opinion several times. I've said "I think" more times than were necessary. In message boards, it's usually a given that people are giving their opinions. It generally shouldn't have to be said.

[hands11]

It's cool. No reason to go on and on about this I guess.

I was just responding to this post...

Point being - He's NO LONGER that guy you said was 30 games removed from having numerous teams offer him a max contract. Ignoring that is like the commercial I mentioned. The point about the injuries wasn't about him being injury-prone. It was about the injuries taking away from his physical ability. But now that you mention it, yes - that is an additional concern. I haven't followed the extent of Amare's and Kidd's injuries, but I'm pretty sure they didn't miss as much time. I hope he does great, but it's time we stopped acting like he's still a great player. He's a good - not great - offensive player and a bad defensive player.

...

[AlohaWiz]

I'm squarely in the camp of wanting to see Arenas come back to the team next year. At the very least to rehabilitate his value, so the team can get more back than a player with an expiring contract like E. Curry or V. Carter who would not be in the team's future plans. On the opposite & optimistic end of the spectrum, Arenas might recapture his old form and create one of the best backcourts in the NBA with Wall.

As for Arenas's defense, I think it will be better. If memory serves, he came into the league playing good defense. But, at some point, due to outside influences, I think he chose to focus primarily on his offense. Years of playing with Antawn Jamison, years of playing under Eddie Jordan, years of being enabled by those around him to be an elite offensive player at the expense of his defense has brought his defensive numbers down. (Note: I think if we can say LeBron, one of the top 3 players in the game, can succumb to enablers, then it's safe to say that Arenas can, too).

And, add in the fact that Arenas is coming back from multiple surgeries. It's hard to say if his lateral quickness has allegedly declined due to physical reasons, or if it's all in his head. He may be holding back because he doesn't want to hurt his knee again. If that's the case, then he may never get past the mental aspect of the injury. But, I think he will.

Especially when Wall is added to the equation. Wall is a natural leader. He wants to lead and he does so, in part, by example. With Wall exerting himself on the defensive end (and taking on the quicker point guards), I think Arenas (and the rest of the team) will follow with much improved defense.

[JonathanJoseph]

I'm squarely in the camp of wanting to see Arenas come back to the team next year. At the very least to rehabilitate his value, so the team can get more back than a player with an expiring contract like E. Curry or V. Carter who would not be in the team's future plans. On the opposite & optimistic end of the spectrum, Arenas might recapture his old form and create one of the best backcourts in the NBA with Wall.

As for Arenas's defense, I think it will be better. If memory serves, he came into the league playing good defense. But, at some point, due to outside influences, I think he chose to focus primarily on his offense. Years of playing with Antawn Jamison, years of playing under Eddie Jordan, years of being enabled by those around him to be an elite offensive player at the expense of his defense has brought his defensive numbers down. (Note: I think if we can say LeBron, one of the top 3 players in the game, can succumb to enablers, then it's safe to say that Arenas can, too).

And, add in the fact that Arenas is coming back from multiple surgeries. It's hard to say if his lateral quickness has allegedly declined due to physical reasons, or if it's all in his head. He may be holding back because he doesn't want to hurt his knee again. If that's the case, then he may never get past the mental aspect of the injury. But, I think he will.

Especially when Wall is added to the equation. Wall is a natural leader. He wants to lead and he does so, in part, by example. With Wall exerting himself on the defensive end (and taking on the quicker point guards), I think Arenas (and the rest of the team) will follow with much improved defense.

+1

This is a great post. Arenas' defense was bad and that's his fault, but it was Butler and Jamison who were the leaders of the team and made no effort on defense and Eddie Jordan, who lost 2 NBA locker rooms in less than 1 year, who set the example. I agree that with a respected coach in Flip Saunders, more defensive-minded players on the roster and a lead-by-example PG in John Wall that Arenas' defense will improve quickly. He needs to be merely average on defense to be an elite NBA player.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

JJ, I think EJ is just as good a coach as Flip when given the right players.

EJ doesn't throw players under the bus. EJ's teams with the Wizards won a ton of games with less talent than the team has now. He was a craptastically bad defensive coach. But he was a great chemistry coach and he won with players who fit his system. He didn't start losing until Gil got hurt. Every playoffs either Butler was hurt or Arenas. EJ had a lot of injuries.

Flip is respected, but Flip's had Brandon, KG, Cassell, Rip, Chauncey, Tayshaun, Rasheed, and Big Ben when he won. Last season, I saw what Flip did with EJ/Tap/EG talent. He lost 15 in a row and finished 26-56.

As far as I'm concerned, Eddie is not as bad and Flip is not as good as people say.

I think the two coaches are just different. Flip is more organized and systematic about some things. EJ innately knows how to handle personalities and to say the right things and keep criticisms in house.

I didn't mean, JJ, to say that you are not right about Arenas and defense. That never would have gotten better under EJ.

I believe Saunders is a better coach than EJ, but not that much better.

[JonathanJoseph]

JJ, I think EJ is just as good a coach as Flip when given the right players.

EJ doesn't throw players under the bus. EJs teams with the Wizards won a ton of games with less talent than the team has now. He was a craptastically bad defensive coach. But he was a great chemistry coach and he won with players who fit his system. He didn't start losing until Gil got hurt. Every playoffs either Butler was hurt or Arenas. EJ had a lot of injuries.

Flip is respected, but Flip's had Brandon, KG, Cassell, Rip, Chauncey, Tayshaun, Rasheed, and Big Ben when he won. Last season, I saw what Flip did with EJ/Tap/EG talent. He lost 15 in a row and finished 26-56.

As far as I'm concerned, Eddie is not as bad and Flip is not as good as people say.

I think the two coaches are just different. Flip is more organized and systematic about some things. EJ innately knows how to handle personalities and to say the right things and keep criticisms in house.

I didn't mean, JJ, to say that you are not right about Arenas and defense. That never would have gotten better under EJ.

I believe Saunders is a better coach than EJ, but not that much better.

Well, I'm of the opinion that Eddie Jordan is worse than everyone thinks and Flip is better than everyone thinks.

I don't think you can compare Eddie Jordan favorably to Flip at all. Eddie Jordan coached for 8 seasons and never topped 45 wins. Flip Saunders has coached 14 seasons and topped 45 wins 9 times. And let's be honest, Terrell Brandon, Tayshaun Prince and Wally Sczerbiak are not any better than Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, so you can't tell me that Flip has been riding prime talent.

And it's not fair to pin the 16 game losing streak on Flip. In the span of 10 days a team that had already lost Arenas then lost Jamison, Butler, Haywood, Stevenson, and Josh Howard (he didn't last much more than a week). No team in NBA history has lost that much at one time. That's 4 guys who've been to the all-star game AND Haywood. That it took the new, talent-deficient roster 16 games to figure out how to win in the NBA shouldnt be a surprise. That doesn't reflect negatively on Flip.

[nate33]

I thought EJ's performance in Philly put to rest the notion that EJ is a good coach.

EJ is a terrible defensive coach and his offensive genius is way overrated. His offense sucks unless he has three of the top 30 offensive players in the league on his team. It's not reasonable to expect to find that much offensive talent and have them be two-way players as well.

[doclinkin]

I thought EJ's performance in Philly put to rest the notion that EJ is a good coach.

EJ is a terrible defensive coach and his offensive genius is way overrated. His offense sucks unless he has three of the top 30 offensive players in the league on his team. It's not reasonable to expect to find that much offensive talent and have them be two-way players as well.

Can't really judge him on his first year with misfit personnel for his system. Consider his 1st year here, then improvements once the team landed a stretch four. Same way you can't really judge Flip to suck based on his first year here. Those three top 30 offensive players didn't fit his system and the team stank mighty.

Concur with CCJ in that EJ is a far better player-relations coach than Flap Saunders. Players get tired of Flip and flip on him. He knows a great deal about the game, makes solid adjustments, but if your guys tune you out and quit on you (Detroit) simply because they are tired of you calling them out in the media and nitpicking on tiny details well then you won't win long-term.

EJ's inspirational style, while lousy on defense, had players killing themselves to bring a team win. It was good for a few implausible giant-killer wins per year, and every deficit was a possible come-from-behind victory. His teams played better the worse the odds. Short-handed, etc. tehy never gave up. While his defense, admittedly was good for a few disheartening losses against worse teams, and no lead was ever safe.

Nerve-wracking, but never boring. But as a person post-game and in the locker room you liked the guy. Flip, I trust him with the X's and O's,he's a solid coach, but he doesn't inspire. In this league, that is key. Ask Phil Jaxx.

[nate33]

EJ is a good motivator. I'll give him that. But I'm not impressed by his occassional "giant killer" games when they come with so many inexplicable losses to inferior competition.

EJ's defensive philosophy is unforgivable. He gives up too many threes in his mission to protect the paint. He provides double team help to big men who don't need it. And he can't get his players to pay attention to detail. Philly went from the 14th ranked defense pre-EJ to the 24th ranked defense with EJ despite having the same team. That was not a coincidence.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

EJ is a good motivator. I'll give him that. But I'm not impressed by his occassional "giant killer" games when they come with so many inexplicable losses to inferior competition.

EJ's defensive philosophy is unforgivable. He gives up too many threes in his mission to protect the paint. He provides double team help to big men who don't need it. And he can't get his players to pay attention to detail. Philly went from the 14th ranked defense pre-EJ to the 24th ranked defense with EJ despite having the same team. That was not a coincidence.

They didn't have the same team at all, nate. EJ is getting a bad rap.

Andre Miller was on the team the year before EJ got there. Miller was the leader of the team and he posted a PER nearly identical to Iguodala's. Elton Brand was out injured all year. Philly made the playoffs with heavy contributions from Maresse Speights (a younger, better player than Brand) and from Thaddeus Young. They had Dalembert at C and were a very good defensive team. Having a floor leader in Andray Miller at one end helped the defense set up, because offensive execution was smooth. Iguodala and Miller were a twin set of attackers under DiLeo (who Philly should have kept as coach IMO). Speights got hurt, IIRC, during the playoffs.

EJ inherited Elton Brand, back from shoulder and achilles issues. EJ played Brand but had major chemistry problems when Brand clearly wasn't the player he used to be, but makes Gilbert-like money. EJ's had JRue Holiday at PG. Lou Williams got hurt. Iguodala had to run the offense without A. Miller. Iguodala struggled mightily adjusting to EJ the same way Caron struggled adjusting to Flip. His turnovers and lack of leadership helping him contributed to Philly's problems defensively. EJ had to deal with Brand becoming a cancer in the lockerroom. He didn't have the same talent. Of course the defense got much worse with EJ. (Just like the offense in DC got worse with Flip).

I might hate on Flip, but I see where others hate the very same way on EJ.

doc, your post is spot on about EJ. The dude has the ability to motivate and to get guys to just about die on the court for him. I think having EJ as head coach and Flip as his trusted assistant, and one EJ would actually defer to, would be best.

Flip grates on guys and I expect at some point he's going to rub Wall the wrong way. He's a coach that keeps someone in the doghouse. I do not like that, but it works for some people. Like doc, I don't think it works in the NBA.

[Benjammin]

For a guy to get fired after just one season is a pretty strong indictment of his coaching. He's a nice guy, he can relate well to players, he has an interesting offensive system if you have the players to run it, but he's not a good NBA head coach. I hope he gets back into coaching as an NBA assistant or perhaps as a college coach. But I think it's going to be very difficult for him to get another shot at an NBA head coaching position for a long time.

[nate33]

I'm not bashing EJ for Philly's offensive performance. You are right that the loss of Miller hurt them. However, Miller is no superstar defender. He's no better defensively than Holiday and Williams. The only explanation for their dropoff in defense is EJ. (By the way, it was EJ's decision to play Brand in place of Speights and Dalembert.)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

He was not a good NBA coach last season.

Neither was Flip, IMHO. Folks need to go back and check the game logs of those games the Wizards couldn't get out of the 80s. Check the roster Flip lost with. See who played and who didn't. Also, the Wizards lost close games one after another. If Flip's the coach he's gotta know if Gil can't close the deal. Check back and see those 15 consecutive losses.

EJ got fired over his losses because Philly fans had an expectation. EJ lost because Brand couldn't stand him. Iguodala couldn't figure out his offense. The team had no Andray Miller. Lou Williams was hurt. The team went in expecting to make the playoffs but was bad. Sure, I accept EJ did a bad job last season. I even can respect that he's not a good coach.

However, I think he coached Philly every bit as good as Flip coached the Wizards last season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2010.html

Code: Select all

26-56, 5th in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coached by: Flip Saunders (26-56)

Points Per Game: 96.2 (26th of 30) ▪ Opponent Points Per Game: 101.0 (16th of 30)
Pythagorean W-L: 28-54 (26th of 30)


http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2010.html

Code: Select all

27-55, 4th in NBA Atlantic Division (Schedule and Results)
Coached by: Eddie Jordan (27-55)

Points Per Game: 97.7 (22nd of 30) ▪ Opponent Points Per Game: 101.6 (18th of 30)
Pythagorean W-L: 30-52 (24th of 30)


Looking back at those projections, Flip's head-to-head wins (2) over EJ was the only thing separating two coaches whose teams IMO underachieved.

[Ruzious]

EJ is a good motivator. I'll give him that. But I'm not impressed by his occassional "giant killer" games when they come with so many inexplicable losses to inferior competition.

EJ's defensive philosophy is unforgivable. He gives up too many threes in his mission to protect the paint. He provides double team help to big men who don't need it. And he can't get his players to pay attention to detail. Philly went from the 14th ranked defense pre-EJ to the 24th ranked defense with EJ despite having the same team. That was not a coincidence.

They didn't have the same team at all, nate. EJ is getting a bad rap.

Andray Miller was on the team the year before EJ got there. Miller was the leader of the team and he posted a PER nearly identical to Iguodala's. Elton Brand was out injured all year. Philly made the playoffs with heavy contributions from Maresse Speights (a younger, better player than Brand) and from Thaddeus Young. They had Dalembert at C and were a very good defensive team. Having a floor leader in Andray Miller at one end helped the defense set up, because offensive execution was smooth. Iguodala and Miller were a twin set of attackers under DiLeo (who Philly should have kept as coach IMO). Speights got hurt, IIRC, during the playoffs.

EJ inherited Elton Brand, back from shoulder and achilles issues. EJ played Brand but had major chemistry problems when Brand clearly wasn't the player he used to be, but makes Gilbert-like money. EJ's had JRue Holiday at PG. Lou Williams got hurt. Iguodala had to run the offense without A. Miller. Iguodala struggled mightily adjusting to EJ the same way Caron struggled adjusting to Flip. His turnovers and lack of leadership helping him contributed to Philly's problems defensively. EJ had to deal with Brand becoming a cancer in the lockerroom. He didn't have the same talent. Of course the defense got much worse with EJ. (Just like the offense in DC got worse with Flip).

I might hate on Flip, but I see where others hate the very same way on EJ.

doc, your post is spot on about EJ. The dude has the ability to motivate and to get guys to just about die on the court for him. I think having EJ as head coach and Flip as his trusted assistant, and one EJ would actually defer to, would be best.

Flip grates on guys and I expect at some point he's going to rub Wall the wrong way. He's a coach that keeps someone in the doghouse. I do not like that, but it works for some people. Like doc, I don't think it works in the NBA.

Yeah, I would have liked to have seen what Philly would have done with Andre Miller. EJ's always had dynamic point guards (Kidd and Arenas) that were the on-court leaders, and he basically didn't have a PG in Philly - though I think the kid from UCLA will eventually be good. When Philly let Miller go, it was pretty much a given that they'd have a rough season, imo. And Brand and Iggy have never blended well. They get in each other's way, and one likes a slow pace, and the other likes to run.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate, "protect the paint" was about the dumbest idea I've ever seen. You're right about that with EJ. Time after time teams rained threes against the Wizards.

"Protect the paint" would have been better if replaced by "play guys taller than Songaila at C, that way you don't have to send perimeter players inside while trying protect the paint". (However, Darius at C did work out for him on more than one occasion. So did Ruffin at C a few times.)

As far as Brand at C, that is consistent with the Eddie Smalls (what I liked to call him) approach.

EJ truly did have some blinders when it came to defense.

But still, I liked the guy. Flip got me upset more times last year than EJ did in 7+ years.

[Kanyewest]

EJ is a good motivator. I'll give him that. But I'm not impressed by his occassional "giant killer" games when they come with so many inexplicable losses to inferior competition.

EJ's defensive philosophy is unforgivable. He gives up too many threes in his mission to protect the paint. He provides double team help to big men who don't need it. And he can't get his players to pay attention to detail. Philly went from the 14th ranked defense pre-EJ to the 24th ranked defense with EJ despite having the same team. That was not a coincidence.

They didn't have the same team at all, nate. EJ is getting a bad rap.

Andray Miller was on the team the year before EJ got there. Miller was the leader of the team and he posted a PER nearly identical to Iguodala's. Elton Brand was out injured all year. Philly made the playoffs with heavy contributions from Maresse Speights (a younger, better player than Brand) and from Thaddeus Young. They had Dalembert at C and were a very good defensive team. Having a floor leader in Andray Miller at one end helped the defense set up, because offensive execution was smooth. Iguodala and Miller were a twin set of attackers under DiLeo (who Philly should have kept as coach IMO). Speights got hurt, IIRC, during the playoffs.

EJ inherited Elton Brand, back from shoulder and achilles issues. EJ played Brand but had major chemistry problems when Brand clearly wasn't the player he used to be, but makes Gilbert-like money. EJ's had JRue Holiday at PG. Lou Williams got hurt. Iguodala had to run the offense without A. Miller. Iguodala struggled mightily adjusting to EJ the same way Caron struggled adjusting to Flip. His turnovers and lack of leadership helping him contributed to Philly's problems defensively. EJ had to deal with Brand becoming a cancer in the lockerroom. He didn't have the same talent. Of course the defense got much worse with EJ. (Just like the offense in DC got worse with Flip).

I might hate on Flip, but I see where others hate the very same way on EJ.

doc, your post is spot on about EJ. The dude has the ability to motivate and to get guys to just about die on the court for him. I think having EJ as head coach and Flip as his trusted assistant, and one EJ would actually defer to, would be best.

Flip grates on guys and I expect at some point he's going to rub Wall the wrong way. He's a coach that keeps someone in the doghouse. I do not like that, but it works for some people. Like doc, I don't think it works in the NBA.

Eddie Jordan also had to incorporate a "seasoned" Allen Iverson. Combine that with Andre Miller leaving (a big reason why Portland was competitive without a true center/injuries to key players like Brandon Roy), and Jrue Holiday, a 19 year old rookie, playing the point, Philly was in rebuild mode. I agree that Elton Brand coming back from his achilles injury has become more of a negative. Philly posted a significantly better record without Brand in the 2008-09 season. But EJ's lack of defense on a franchise that defines itself on it was a recipe to get fire. Still, I can't defend the EJ's firing of the 2010 given that they hired Doug Collins who IMO is not a good coach.

I would say EJ was fired for the same reason that Flip struggled- he didn't adapt his system enough to fit his personel. Although in the long run, I wouldn't have seen Philly winning without EJ helping them implement a half decent half court offense.

I'm willing to give Flip another year to turn it around. Since the Wizards are learning a new system, one should have expected them to be bumps on the road. Still, I've pointed out that Flip has had MUCH better talent than EJ. While that 2004 Conference Finals with the T-Wolves was impressive, I'm afraid that Saunders never exceeded expectations with the Pistons.

[barelyawake]

I don't see Arenas rehabing his value to the point where he gets us anything of significant value. He's still got baggage -- in terms of personal history. The rest of the league and their fanbases view the gun charge much differently than us. A GM will have to sell Arenas to their fans, no matter how much time has past. His injury report will continue to haunt him despite being in the past. And he still has the rep of playing no defense. No GM is suddenly going to overlook all of those things and give-up a significant piece on that gamble -- no matter how well he is playing. An expiring, sure. But, not a key piece.

So, weigh that against what we could get if Arenas is dumped. One can reasonably predict that without Arenas we'll be in the lottery for the next two years. So, the result is getting two lottery picks "for Arenas" -- not to mention all that cap. And I'll say again, the risk of not doing this is, if we make the playoffs, we are stuck being without the needed assets or potential to get better. At that point, one assumes we couldn't "dump" Arenas, because at that point, we would be purposefully going from a playoff team to a tanking team.

[Kanyewest]

I don't see Arenas rehabing his value to the point where he gets us anything of significant value. He's still got baggage -- in terms of personal history. The rest of the league and their fanbases view the gun charge much differently than us. A GM will have to sell Arenas to their fans, no matter how much time has past. His injury report will continue to haunt him despite being in the past. And he still has the rep of playing no defense. No GM is suddenly overlook all of those things and give-up a significant piece on that gamble -- no matter how well he is playing. An expiring, sure. But, not a key piece.

So, weigh that against what we could get if Arenas is dumped. One can reasonably predict that without Arenas we'll be in the lottery for the next two years. So, the result is getting two lottery picks "for Arenas" -- not to mention all that cap. And I'll say again, the risk of not doing this is, if we make the playoffs, we are stuck being without the needed assets or potential to get better. At that point, one assumes we couldn't "dump" Arenas, because at that point, we would be purposefully going from a playoff team to a tanking team.

Arenas value is REALLY really REALLY low so he's going to rehab his value unless he goes down with another injury; Arenas has earned cancer status which he is not IMO. If the Wizards play .500 ball to open the season, then his value really grows. You have to remember that guys like Blatche are underrated; mostly because they are not known entities. In response to the injuries, Gilbert's value goes up if he stays healthy. Yes he's had 3 knee surgeries but if he looks like he's decent

John Wall will make Gilbert Arenas look like a better player. Some people think that Gilbert can't coexist with John Wall because Wall needs the ball in his hands. But as Wizards fans, we know that Gilbert can play with another guard that handles the ball such as Larry Hughes and Antonio Daniels.

The cap space is overrated in most offseasons as teams commit to overpay players that they probably shouldn't. Of course I would like to get someone like Melo, but I would wait to try to create cap space before he has turned down that extension from the Nuggets.

think the opportunity to tank will only be this next season if the Wizards trade Arenas. I think the Wizards will rise to "mediocrity" during the 2011-2012 season with a seasoned Wall, Blatche, McGee, and a high draft pick.