LeTravel, LaQween, LaDouche - La Going to LA

[Zonkerbl]

Statistical fallacy! Those shots are no more or less likely to fall than they were before.

But the chances of them going 1-12 again in the same situations is low.

[Illuminaire]

Indeed. The question is how many start falling? Will we see only a slightly better clip (25-35%), because the shots are bad ones stemming from poor planning or execution? Or are we looking at a much higher rate, because they're taking good shots and have just been missing?

[Zonkerbl]

See, the key to wisdom is not knowing the answers, but asking the right questions.

[Nivek]

I know this is a Heat bashing thread, but I think both Lebron and Wade have shown the ability to make shots throughout their career. Eventually, they'll regress to something closer to their norms in those situations and the shots will go in.

The shots they got at the end yesterday would figure to normally be at least a 50-50 proposition on Lebron's drive, and then 40% on Wade's jumper. I haven't watched all their games, but 1-16 or whatever the number is now is so obviously out of keeping with what these guys have done in the past that pretty soon it has to change for them. Unless folks are ready to argue they've fundamentally changed in their ability to play the game, which I think would be a difficult argument to make.

Sorry to interrupt the bashing.

[Zonkerbl]

LeQUEEN IS TEH SUCK!

[pineappleheadindc]

.

LOL - Wilbon on TV yelling and screaming in defense of all the Miami Heat crying.

Jeebus.

[pineappleheadindc]

I know this is a Heat bashing thread, but I think both Lebron and Wade have shown the ability to make shots throughout their career. Eventually, they'll regress to something closer to their norms in those situations and the shots will go in.

The shots they got at the end yesterday would figure to normally be at least a 50-50 proposition on Lebron's drive, and then 40% on Wade's jumper. I haven't watched all their games, but 1-16 or whatever the number is now is so obviously out of keeping with what these guys have done in the past that pretty soon it has to change for them. Unless folks are ready to argue they've fundamentally changed in their ability to play the game, which I think would be a difficult argument to make.

Sorry to interrupt the bashing.

Kev, what do you think about the lack of clutch shot success by the Heat? (I think the oft-quoted stat is 1-18 at the end of games.) Is it a statistical anomoly? Like hitting winning combos on a slot machine a number of times in a row?

Or is it associated with additional pressure, refs swallowing their whistles, and the harder defense opponents play at the end of games?

(I don't know, to be honest).

But if it's the second option, above, then the Heat are in trouble. Because additional pressure, refs swallowing their whistles, and harder defense from one's opponents is also the EXACT description of basketball in the playoffs. Nothing comes easy.

If the Heat can't master the moments in the regular season most like playoff basketball, I'm not sure they'll advance too far.

[Halcyon]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APudEYEVZJQ[/youtube]

[Nivek]

I know this is a Heat bashing thread, but I think both Lebron and Wade have shown the ability to make shots throughout their career. Eventually, they'll regress to something closer to their norms in those situations and the shots will go in.

The shots they got at the end yesterday would figure to normally be at least a 50-50 proposition on Lebron's drive, and then 40% on Wade's jumper. I haven't watched all their games, but 1-16 or whatever the number is now is so obviously out of keeping with what these guys have done in the past that pretty soon it has to change for them. Unless folks are ready to argue they've fundamentally changed in their ability to play the game, which I think would be a difficult argument to make.

Sorry to interrupt the bashing.

Kev, what do you think about the lack of clutch shot success by the Heat? (I think the oft-quoted stat is 1-18 at the end of games.) Is it a statistical anomoly? Like hitting winning combos on a slot machine a number of times in a row?

Or is it associated with additional pressure, refs swallowing their whistles, and the harder defense opponents play at the end of games?

(I don't know, to be honest).

But if it's the second option, above, then the Heat are in trouble. Because additional pressure, refs swallowing their whistles, and harder defense from one's opponents is also the EXACT description of basketball in the playoffs. Nothing comes easy.

If the Heat can't master the moments in the regular season most like playoff basketball, I'm not sure they'll advance too far.

I think it's your first option. Same thing with beating teams with good records.

[dobrojim]

it may well be a statistical anomaly but it also can become a self-fulfilling
prophecy. In some of these games as the pressure has built, you can see
the fear in the eyes of Heat players. That can't help them execute.

And while their horrible record against quality teams is probably
an anomaly as well, even it they improve some, it's still hard to
see how they are going to even make it out of the east say nothing of
winning the first of 7 championships.

can't beat NY, BOS or CHI, might beat ORL. Thing is, those opp strengths
are in areas MIA is weak in.

[Nivek]

Maybe it's my standard-definition signal, but I'm not seeing fear. I'm also not seeing bad execution when I look at the plays in that "failure" video. They're running the plays properly, they're getting good shots, the shots just aren't falling. At some point, they'll start making their share.

As for beating good teams, Neil Paine over at basketball-reference took a look at what a team's regular season record against top teams means once they get to the playoffs. The conclusion:

In other words, knowing how a team performed vs. elite teams actually tells you less about who wins a playoff series than a team's record against all teams, even non-elite teams. Team records vs. the cream of the crop certainly sound meaningful, but when it comes to predicting success or failure in the playoffs, you'd be better off knowing how they did against the entire league.

In a follow-up study, Neil found slightly better predictive power in same-team regular season matchups -- meaning, the team that won the regular season matchup tended to win head-to-head in the playoffs. But, his study shows that what actually matters most is home court advantage.

[go'stags]

Alright alright yea yea lets get back to the LeBron bashing. Hes the anti Charlie Sheen

[montestewart]

LeBJ's talents are still out on South Beach, not realizing it's not even in Miami.

[Kanyewest]

Ah, Thibs lasted all of three days as a Wizard. He was brought on as the defensive assistant for Eddie Jordan, seemingly without Jordan's desire or blessing. After one meeting with Eddie, Thibs asked to be released from his contract.

That should answer your questions.

I have to wonder if Thibs got an offer with the Celtics shortly after signing with the Wizards. I mean going to Boston with KG, Paul Pierce, and Allen is a much better gig.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Tonight Portland outplayed Miami from start to finish, even with 69 combined from Wade and James. Miami has lost 5 straight.

Miller was horrible. Lebron was exposed defensively. Spoelstra can't keep his job much longer, but the problem IMO is their bench and Bosh. Bosh missed a bunch of shots he normally makes and seemed like a shell of the player he has been.

After putting on their dance show at Decision time the Heat are getting defeated nightly.

Don't know if NBATV did it on purpose but right after the Heat lost, NBATV played Dwayne Wade's "Get me outta here" commercial. He might be rethinkinking not leaving Miami.

[montestewart]

Heat have had runs of 21-1 and 11-1. Outside of that, they are 11-19.

[queridiculo]

The main problem I see with the Heat, is what everybody has been saying all along. They lack depth, and that's a direct result of how the team has been constructed. I just don't see how a team can win with 3 players that have a combined usage rate of 87%.

It didn't work for the Wizards, and it won't work for the Heat regardless of how much more talented their big three are. Not against the teams they are competing with anyway.

When you look at the rosters of the Lakers, Celtics, Bulls, Spurs, Mavericks and to a lesser extent the Magic there simply is no comparison top to bottom.

To make matters worse for the Heat, the hype and pressure that came with signing those guys hasn't really afforded the team room to grow as a unit. On any given night Wade and James feel like they have to prove the critics wrong, when the better approach would have been to bring along the other guys slowly.

The Heat didn't do themselves any favors with this whole dog and pony show when not a minute of basketball had been played. They should have shut their collective traps, stayed humble and gone to work.

Of course humble and Lebron go together as well as Charlie Sheen and sobriety.

[FAH1223]

I really hope the Lakers crush them and take out their will on Thursday, cause they are still the defending champions and I don't hate them as much as I hate LeBron

But really, Portland won with LeBrick and Wade having a combined like, 70 points or so.. really all you gotta do is take out Bosh and everyone else... and just hope to contain the other two

[pancakes3]

The main problem I see with the Heat, is what everybody has been saying all along. They lack depth, and that's a direct result of how the team has been constructed. I just don't see how a team can win with 3 players that have a combined usage rate of 87%.

i disagree. i think the heat had/have the potential to be a 70 win team currently as constructed. i rarely blame coaching (never chanted fire EJ, Flip, etc) but Spoelstra is letting a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity slip away.

Bosh by all accounts should be at LEAST a double-digit rebounder. i have no idea why wade is even around to be pulling down 6.7 boards a game, but that's damningly high. wade and lebron should be letting Bosh get the gimme-boards and firing it downfield for 2 of the greatest fast-break players of this generation. instead, lebron's quest to maintain his 25/7/7 statline trumps what's good for the team.

Wade should be averaging TWICE as many assists as Lebron. All the bull about Lebron being a better primary ballhandler is not fooling anybody. The reason Lebron has the ball is either he's refusing, or just plain unable to play off-ball. This forces wade to play off-ball. Wade isn't bad off-ball. in fact, he's pretty darn good. however, if given the choice to hit your guard off a screen for a jumper or hitting your freak-of-nature SF curling off a screen for a layup? no-brainer.

Lebron's %'s is also hurting them from being a super-team. he's averaging lower %'s across the board on fewer attempts. i don't know if that's psychological or what but there's really no reason for Lebron to be shooting below .500, or even "around" .500. If you ran the pick and roll with Lebron and Wade, with wade as the dribbler, it would be the single most devastating PnR combo of all time. they would give stockton/malone a run for their money. and yet? never. they never run it. why? because lebron refuses to SET picks? because lebron refuses to play off-ball? because lebron doesn't know how to pick and roll because he's never ever done it before? ever? whatever the cause, the conclusion is the same - lebron is just not that good.

Also... their FT%'s are atrocious. for being superstars that have been in the league for 7 years and neither Lebron nor Wade have improved their FT%'s when they're low 70's shooters to begin with is almost inexcusable. I mean, 1 more FT/game out of the two of them? if they ran the pnr to death from the beginning? if bosh had a fire lit under his butt about rebounding and defense? you're telling me that those 3 players wouldn't be contenders and have a near 90% win%?

i'll stop now before my tone shifts from anti-lebron to pro-heat.

[LyricalRico]

http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/v ... 5B2l27Ms2n