Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[Deeptu McPullup]

Okafor being a vet-minimum big is an absolutely outrageous claim and Nene is being seriously undersold there as well.

We had the 5th best defense with the 6th best defensive rebounding rate in the whole league. Our opponents took very poor shots across the board except from 3-point land.

http://hoopdata.com/oteamshotlocs.aspx

Who exactly was responsible for that happening if our interior players are so poor?

They're older, we need replacements and some more offense up front, but let's not pretend like Nene and Okafor aren't quality players just for the sake of a "woe is we" narrative. Okafor probably gets a three year contract paying out at least $9 million per year if he were a free agent this summer.

[nate33]

#1. Draft Porter, let Martell walk, resign Price, shed some salary using a second rounder, sign Kyle Korver.

Wall/Price
Beal/2nd round best shooter available/Temple
Porter/Ariza
Nene/Korver/Booker
Oakafor/Seraphin

#2. Draft Len, resign Martell, shed salary, sign Jarred Jack

Wall/Jack
Beal/2nd round shooter/Temple
Webster/Ariza
Nene/Booker/Seraphin
Okafor/Len

#3. Draft Burke. Resign Martell, shed salary, sign Korver

Wall/Burke
Beal/Burke/2nd round shooter
Webster/Ariza
Nene/Korver/Booker
Okafor/Seraphin

Wildcard: trade #3 for Kanter, Utah #14, shed salary, sign Jack, resign Martell

Wall/Jack
Beal/2nd round shooter/Temple
Martell/Ariza
Nene/McDermott (did he declare?)/Booker
Kanter/Okafor

So much fail here.

#1. Korver is not a PF. He's an undersized SF. If we drafted Porter, I don't know why in the world you would go after either Korver. In that scenario, you sign Jack if possible.

#2. We can't sign both Webster and Jack. We have only the MLE, that's it. We would need to"shed salary" to the tune of $11M or so to get both. The only way to do that would be to give Okafor to Portland.

#3. See #2 above. We can't sign both Webster and Korver. Korver is an undersized SF, not a PF.

#4. If we're lucky we can get Kanter for the #3 plus Seraphin. You can forget about getting the #14 back. And as mentioned before, we can't sign both Jack and Webster.

[closg00]

Okafor being a vet-minimum big is an absolutely outrageous claim and Nene is being seriously undersold there as well.

We had the 5th best defense with the 6th best defensive rebounding rate in the whole league. Our opponents took very poor shots across the board except from 3-point land.

http://hoopdata.com/oteamshotlocs.aspx

Who exactly was responsible for that happening if our interior players are so poor?

They're older, we need replacements and some more offense up front, but let's not pretend like Nene and Okafor aren't quality players just for the sake of a "woe is we" narrative. Okafor probably gets a three year contract paying out at least $9 million per year if he were a free agent this summer.

So we only disagree on Okafor's value after his contract is up. I stand corrected, he will certainly will get more than the vet minimum. 3 mil per year would be fair, but I'd rather we have someone other than Vesely and Seraphin being groomed at back-up C, and Booker is not a C. Booker is one of the few assets we have that might help us get another pick in the draft.

[nate33]

If Noel's number one and Orlando steps in number two with Burke, you've got McLemore and Dipo sitting right there at three - probably the premier wings from a trade value perspective.

Big Ern will have felt everyone out behind him in the front end of the lottery in trade down scenarios, but he probably gets low balled if not outright nah-I'm-good'ed.

The burnish-balled gangster play would be to pluck whichever of those two is known to be privately coveted to a shrill pitch and then negotiate like you've got one of Jack Bauer's family members held hostage.

Well, don't get too greedy, but there's assets to be had. If The Ern really is targeting Len or Bennet (or Zeller), this would be the path. If you like Porter, you get him at 5 as the Hornycats surely aren't taking him (they would in fact greatly increase our leverage if they draft the other two guard, actually).

Of course it could blow up in your face too, especially with McLemore, but that's why it's gangster.

I like this line of thinking.

Perhaps Oladipo is the best pick if he's there at #3. There's a good chance that Phoenix, New Orleans or Charlotte wants him bad and will trade up for him. And if not, Oladipo has perhaps the best combination of being NBA ready now while also having high upside of anybody in the draft. Take the BPA right?

[nate33]

The playoffs show every year that you need a rim-protecting 7-footer. Ernie should be doing everything realistically possible to get Dallas's 13th pick to get on of the bigs. We need upgrades in the wings on our front court.

*Nene is floor-bounded and heading South rapidly
*Okafor is a vet-minumum big in the final year of his contract
*Vesely will be Europe before long
*Seraphin is a tease, but I have not lost completely in him. Kevin is young and may still be worth keeping as s bench player
*Booker is expendable

Another opportunity cost of the Okariza trade. If we didn't make that trade, we would have the cap room to make a BOYD trade for the #13 pick.

[nate33]

I think Oladipo is certainly more NBA ready than Porter is.

To me, the ideal scenerio in this draft for the Wiz is to find a way to get Ryan Anderson while still having a top 10 pick to attain a future center or a combo guard like Mccollum.

Not a big Ryan Anderson fan. He's just a big very good 3 pt shooter. All of his points are catch and shoot threes and he can't play defense or rebound. I think he's a weak option as a starting PF unless you've got a brilliant defensive 5. He's a one trick pony and 3 pt shooting from the 4 spot is not essential to building a winning team.

Not a big fan of Ersan either for than matter but I think he's a lot better than Anderson because he's a comparable shooter and he's a decent rebounder and actually plays a little defense. He's still not great though. Neither are difference makers or foundation pieces for good teams, neither will ever sniff an AS appearance. Neither are likely to get any better than they already are.

Wiz fans have a fascination with stretch 4s even if they are poorly rounded specialists that haven't made a difference in the W/L column for their teams. I understand that appeal of putting three great 3 ball shooters on the court with Wall at the same time, but you've got to get your ducks in a row with defense and rebounding first. And a big needs to be able to finish inside to be good. If you need 3 ball shooting at the PF spot and don't have a stretch 4, just go small like Miami does and put a Shane Battier type at PF. No need to trade off the opportunity for someone like Porter for a lesser prospect and a one trick pony.

Or fire Wittman, find a coach with a good track record of developing raw bigs, and draft Bennett instead of trading down for an inferior talent like Anderson.

Ryan Anderson had an insane +14.6 on/off differential last year with Orlando. He was +4.8 the year before that. He does help teams win.

I think the key with a guy like Anderson is to make sure you have a Plan B for when you face a legit beast playing PF for the other team. Anderson can get the job done defensively against 20-25 teams in this league (while greatly improving the offense) but when you face guys like Carmelo, Aldridge and Griffin, you may have to sit Anderson quite a bit and play Booker or Nene instead.

[queridiculo]

Otto Porter seems like a great fit, although his lack of elite athleticism is giving me a bit of pause. The other thing I wonder is how smart it is to have so much money tied up in wing players without having addressed the center position.

Oladipo is another great prospect but I don't really see him as a small forward in this league and while his shooting has improved, I don't necessarily consider him a good fit playing off the ball.

Ideally I'd like to see us to either parlay that pick into a future pick with a move down somewhere between 7 and 10, or going all out in our pursuit of Demarcus Cousins and leveraging that pick in a trade.

[fishercob]

Orlando needs a SG as bad as it needs a PG. I could see them drafting McLemore for his athleticism & upside compared to Burke.

They have two very young wings that they like a lot in Harkless and Tobias. They also have Afflalo. If they're in love with Oladipo or Mclemore, I can see them going that route, but I think their PG need is deeper and my guess is they take Burke

Either way I'm thinking Porter is a virtual lock to be there. I think Noel is a safe bet for #1 and a G will go #2. I'm leaning towards Porter as the pick. But I'm not 100% sold on him just yet. Oladipo is really intriguing. What separates him from McLemore IMO is that he is more of slasher although his handle is still somewhat unpolished. And despite being a jr, and McLemore a frosh, Oladipo is 3 months younger than McLemore.

I agree. I do see some D-Wade in Oladipo and think it's critical that the Wizards do some deep, deep due diligence on him and projecting his upside. If they're of the belief that he has superstar potential, then I think you consider picking him while quietly (silently) seeing what kind of stud you can get for Beal. His trade value would be enormous. I'm not advocating such a move (lord knows I've loved Beal since he showed up on our radar over a year ago), but you need to do the due diligence.

On Porter, I think it's a good bet that you're getting someone like Kawhi Leonard -- not necessarily stylistically, but someone without one single eye-popping skill, but a very good all (and I mean ALL) around player. I think he'll always have great on-off numbers; the team will function better when he;s on the court. He'll get deflections, force misses, corral rebounds, cut to open spaces, hit open shots, make key passes. He'll likely never get his proper due for his impact because he's not going to cross guys up, dunk all over trees and pound his chest. But I think the guy is a winner and will fit like a glove here.

I'm not really considering Burke. I don't think he's an ideal fit and while he'll be okay, I question his upside.

I still like Olynyk. Bennett is just too much of a risk. Len was okay at #8, I'm not in love with idea of drafting him 3rd. I find Gobert intriguing, just don't know enough yet. Same with Schroeder. Zeller is more late lottery to me.

I like Olynyk but sort of view him as a luxury we can't afford. Your bigs simply need to excel on D. I'd be more comfortable gambling on Len, Adams or Gobert if we can wrangle our way into a second pick. I get that there is risk, but I'm after that defensive upside.

I'm open to trading the pick as well. Trading for Horford or Ibaka would be very tempting. Trading down for Ryan Anderson would be fine by me.

OPen to this as well. Given their roster, New Orleans may prefer Porter or Oladipo to Anderson and Len. Horford is interesting. Trading for him would certainly help us; it could also open the door for a Hawks superteam built around Dwight, CP3, and Josh Smith. Plug in Ariza, Oladipo and whatever they can on the bench and they're instant contenders in the East . I'm usually of the mind that you worry about helping your team and not about the opposition, but wow.

[Deeptu McPullup]

Okafor being a vet-minimum big is an absolutely outrageous claim and Nene is being seriously undersold there as well.

We had the 5th best defense with the 6th best defensive rebounding rate in the whole league. Our opponents took very poor shots across the board except from 3-point land.

http://hoopdata.com/oteamshotlocs.aspx

Who exactly was responsible for that happening if our interior players are so poor?

They're older, we need replacements and some more offense up front, but let's not pretend like Nene and Okafor aren't quality players just for the sake of a "woe is we" narrative. Okafor probably gets a three year contract paying out at least $9 million per year if he were a free agent this summer.

So we only disagree on Okafor's value after his contract is up. I stand corrected, he will certainly will get more than the vet minimum. 3 mil per year would be fair, but I'd rather we have someone other than Vesely and Seraphin being groomed at back-up C, and Booker is not a C. Booker is one of the few assets we have that might help us get another pick in the draft.

Big picture and going with the start of what you were saying before, there's certainly no question that we're well up the creek in terms of bigmen with upside. Probably everyone on this board would put "acquire a defensive big" at the top of the list of what needs to get done.

My only issue is that I do think Okafor and Nene are solid players who are worth near their contracts in a vacuum while being guys who are capable of playing winning basketball in a playoff series.

The short term isn't the most important thing, but our main issue last year with the bigs is that we needed a skilled starting quality power forward to round out the rotation. We had nothing like that. For example, I believe that Horford-Nene-Okafor would be the best interior rotation in the league next year and would only be underdogs against something like Gasol-Bynum-Odom.

Big picture and long term, though, yes, we obviously have a lot of work to do.

[GhostsOfGil]

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of drafting Noel. I think there is a very real possibility that the Cavs pass on him, especially with their unorthodox draft history.

[fishercob]

The playoffs show every year that you need a rim-protecting 7-footer. Ernie should be doing everything realistically possible to get Dallas's 13th pick to get on of the bigs. We need upgrades in the wings on our front court.

*Nene is floor-bounded and heading South rapidly
*Okafor is a vet-minumum big in the final year of his contract
*Vesely will be Europe before long
*Seraphin is a tease, but I have not lost completely in him. Kevin is young and may still be worth keeping as s bench player
*Booker is expendable

Another opportunity cost of the Okariza trade. If we didn't make that trade, we would have the cap room to make a BOYD trade for the #13 pick.

We would appear to have a trade exception from the Rashard Lewis trade big enough to absorb the pick. Were Ariza to opt out, we could absorb some cap ballast, but then we might be unable to keep Webster, yes?

[hands11]

I took a look at the Orlando board.

They seem to be leaning toward saying they should add Burke or VO, and more seem to like Burke then VO, but they are not as excited about McLemore

And I would agree. They need direction. A player who can help define and lead the team. Burke with T Harris and Nikola could make for a good young core. Jameer isn't getting any younger and he isn't a franchise leader type.

Burke/Jameer
Afflalo/JJ Redick, Doron Lamb
T Harris/Mo Harkless
Glen Davis/Al Harrington
Nikola

And they have a late 2nd

Jameer is in his last year at 8M, maybe they resign him cheap for a few years or just let him go.
Turkoglu is a player option at 12M then he is gone
Al Harrington two more years at 7M, just gotta eat that I guess

Gil is owed 22M for one more year (ouch) but he isn't on the books

Come 2014/15, they should finally have some cap space, cleaned up most the wreckage and have Glen D and Al Harrington as two expiring contracts at 7.6M and 6.6M. Add the right PF and they could have a playoff team in a year or two.

Burke makes the most sense for them I think. He talent and leadership skills can help them turn the corner and define a new era for that squad.

[stevemcqueen1]

I think Oladipo is certainly more NBA ready than Porter is.

To me, the ideal scenerio in this draft for the Wiz is to find a way to get Ryan Anderson while still having a top 10 pick to attain a future center or a combo guard like Mccollum.

Not a big Ryan Anderson fan. He's just a big very good 3 pt shooter. All of his points are catch and shoot threes and he can't play defense or rebound. I think he's a weak option as a starting PF unless you've got a brilliant defensive 5. He's a one trick pony and 3 pt shooting from the 4 spot is not essential to building a winning team.

Not a big fan of Ersan either for than matter but I think he's a lot better than Anderson because he's a comparable shooter and he's a decent rebounder and actually plays a little defense. He's still not great though. Neither are difference makers or foundation pieces for good teams, neither will ever sniff an AS appearance. Neither are likely to get any better than they already are.

Wiz fans have a fascination with stretch 4s even if they are poorly rounded specialists that haven't made a difference in the W/L column for their teams. I understand that appeal of putting three great 3 ball shooters on the court with Wall at the same time, but you've got to get your ducks in a row with defense and rebounding first. And a big needs to be able to finish inside to be good. If you need 3 ball shooting at the PF spot and don't have a stretch 4, just go small like Miami does and put a Shane Battier type at PF. No need to trade off the opportunity for someone like Porter for a lesser prospect and a one trick pony.

Or fire Wittman, find a coach with a good track record of developing raw bigs, and draft Bennett instead of trading down for an inferior talent like Anderson.

Ryan Anderson had an insane +14.6 on/off differential last year with Orlando. He was +4.8 the year before that. He does help teams win.

I think the key with a guy like Anderson is to make sure you have a Plan B for when you face a legit beast playing PF for the other team. Anderson can get the job done defensively against 20-25 teams in this league (while greatly improving the offense) but when you face guys like Carmelo, Aldridge and Griffin, you may have to sit Anderson quite a bit and play Booker or Nene instead.

I don't know, I think a huge part of Anderson's effectiveness was Dwight Howard. Howard was so dominant in Orlando that he could cover up all of Anderson's weaknesses. In fact, he was such a space eating, glass eating, monster defender that you actually wanted to clear out the paint to keep guys out of his way. Anderson didn't have play much defense, didn't have to rebound, and didn't have to venture inside the three point line on offense.

Did anyone else find it odd that a 24 year old 20 PER big shooting the thee like Dirk Nowitzki barely received any interest on the open market last year? That he had to sign with one of the worst teams in the league in the middle of a total overhaul for just 8.5 million per year when guys like DeAndre Jordan and JaVale McGee got 11 million a year from two of the best teams in the West? I think the league sees Anderson as a one trick pony that you have to cover up in too many ways to make him worth it.

Anderson went to a bad team with no Dwight Howard type defensive big and was horrific on D last year. I don't think he can get the job done defensively against most of the league. I think you're going to be trying to figure out how to hide him most nights.

[hands11]

The playoffs show every year that you need a rim-protecting 7-footer. Ernie should be doing everything realistically possible to get Dallas's 13th pick to get on of the bigs. We need upgrades in the wings on our front court.

*Nene is floor-bounded and heading South rapidly
*Okafor is a vet-minumum big in the final year of his contract
*Vesely will be Europe before long
*Seraphin is a tease, but I have not lost completely in him. Kevin is young and may still be worth keeping as s bench player
*Booker is expendable

Another opportunity cost of the Okariza trade. If we didn't make that trade, we would have the cap room to make a BOYD trade for the #13 pick.

We would appear to have a trade exception from the Rashard Lewis trade big enough to absorb the pick. Were Ariza to opt out, we could absorb some cap ballast, but then we might be unable to keep Webster, yes?

Trevor A - I see no chance he opts out. Not walking from 7.7M
Beal - there is a zero chance they move him and thank God. Beal is a core piece.

[verbal8]

The pick does not have a cap value if traded before the draft. Once the player is selected, I think it would be the scale contract.

The Wizards will have enough cap holds to stay above the cap and keep the full MLE if Ariza opts out. It might have been close other-wise, but Ariza would have a cap hold since the Wizards would have his bird rights.

I wonder if Cleveland might have the best offer for the 13th pick. They have the 31st and 33rd pick and could probably offer their 2nd next year. They also could absorb Carter or Mayo if the Mavs want to move them.

The playoffs show every year that you need a rim-protecting 7-footer. Ernie should be doing everything realistically possible to get Dallas's 13th pick to get on of the bigs.

We would appear to have a trade exception from the Rashard Lewis trade big enough to absorb the pick. Were Ariza to opt out, we could absorb some cap ballast, but then we might be unable to keep Webster, yes?

[pancakes3]

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of drafting Noel. I think there is a very real possibility that the Cavs pass on him, especially with their unorthodox draft history.

The cavs might pass and take McLemore first and the Magic would do well to draft Burke but there are plenty of opportunities to trade down at that point to plenty of takers. I don't think it's very likely that Noel just slips down to us cleanly.

[nate33]

The playoffs show every year that you need a rim-protecting 7-footer. Ernie should be doing everything realistically possible to get Dallas's 13th pick to get on of the bigs. We need upgrades in the wings on our front court.

*Nene is floor-bounded and heading South rapidly
*Okafor is a vet-minumum big in the final year of his contract
*Vesely will be Europe before long
*Seraphin is a tease, but I have not lost completely in him. Kevin is young and may still be worth keeping as s bench player
*Booker is expendable

Another opportunity cost of the Okariza trade. If we didn't make that trade, we would have the cap room to make a BOYD trade for the #13 pick.

We would appear to have a trade exception from the Rashard Lewis trade big enough to absorb the pick. Were Ariza to opt out, we could absorb some cap ballast, but then we might be unable to keep Webster, yes?

Don't need a trade exception to absorb the pick. The pick has no cap cost until after the player is signed. Our trade exception is large enough to absorb a guy like Cunningham and his $1.1M salary. But Dallas would have to replace that salary with a minimum salary rookie salary (about $500K) when factoring their cap room, so it only effectively saves them $600K in cap room (in addition to the cap saved by them not having to sign a pick).

I expect they can get a better deal elsewhere. Somebody can probably offer to absorb Vince Carter while swapping a 2014 pick for their 2013 pick.

[nate33]

Did anyone else find it odd that a 24 year old 20 PER big shooting the thee like Dirk Nowitzki barely received any interest on the open market last year? That he had to sign with one of the worst teams in the league in the middle of a total overhaul for just 8.5 million per year when guys like DeAndre Jordan and JaVale McGee got 11 million a year from two of the best teams in the West? I think the league sees Anderson as a one trick pony that you have to cover up in too many ways to make him worth it.

I don't buy that characterization at all. $8.5M a year is a pretty big chunk of money. New Orleans also had to trade Ayon as part of the S&T. Heck, New Orleans got rid of two pretty solid players in Okafor and Ariza just to facilitate the deal. And comparing the signing to McGee and Jordan is false analogy. McGee was acquired via trade. Jordan was resigned by his own team using Bird Rights.

Nobody is saying Anderson is an elite player. But he is a very effective floor spreader who also rebounds very well on the defensive glass. It's a matter of chemistry. If you can get him on a team where his floor spacing ability complements a superstar like Dwight Howard or John Wall, it can really pay off. It's not working as well in New Orleans because they don't have anyone to take advantage of the floor spacing. Teams can defend New Orleans without double team help from Anderson's defender.

[BullsFTW]

When healthy, your team is dangerous and all you need is a productive SF. How about this trade?

Bulls Get: #3 Pick & Trevor Ariza
Wizards Get: Luol Deng & CHI 2015 Pick

Assuming McLemore is still available at #3, this deal gives us a young-athletic shooting guard that can develop next to Rose and allows Butler to become the starting SF. The Wizards on the other hand is one reliable SF away from becoming a dangerous team in the East. If you're team is not sold on Porter, we have Deng to offer to provide production at SF and veteran leadership in the locker room. He is also an All-Star who will fit perfectly next to Wall and Beal.

Fillers would have to be included to make the salaries match. Ariza will probably opt-in on the final year of his contract so he has to be in the trade to make the trade work.

[No-Man]

Noel would be nº1, I don't if the Cavs would trade the pick or whatever, but he'll be nº1