2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[payitforward]

That's not an accurate description of WP48, but honestly Dat I don't give a sh*t about WP48; I'm not going to become its spokesperson. I will say this, however: PER does do what you describe -- and it correlates at somewhere about 80%. EFF also does that, and it correlates at a lower rate. It's the correlation that makes a metric useful. Nothing else.

I didn't explain defense only by way of defensive boards; of course not. I have no argument with the idea that Morris is a better (much better, whatever...) defender than Robinson (who is not one of my favorite players by any means -- why would he be?). My point was rather in the other direction. When a player is on the court, you get everything he does, all of it. If a player gets more offensive boards than another at the same position, then that delta affects defense by making the team have to play less of it. There's no way out of that fact as far as I can see.

Hence, it's a fact that I don't have an urge for us to sign Thomas Robinson, but it's also a fact that he gets more O boards than Morris (and more defensive boards than all of Morris' rebounds!).

Looking at your data tables -- for which thanks -- just so I understand, the last table says that when Robinson was off the court, the team's defensive rebounding went down 5.8%. Do I have that right? If so, that's a fact -- but, alas, it can't be given any meaning whatsoever, because there is no definition to the baseline. Overall, the guys he plays with don't do as good job on the defensive boards as the guys who are on the floor in units that don't include him, that much is clear. But, since I don't know anything about those units or about who else is on the floor when he is, I have no way to assess his role in that 5.8% decline.

Hence, when you say "he significantly hurt them on the defensive boards when he played", you don't have a basis for the statement. In fact, no other Net pulled down anywhere near as many defensive boards per time on the floor as Thomas Robinson did. He's more than 20% better than any other Net in that regard.

Morris was a starter w/ the Wizards. His unit rebounded a little better than the backups. For me to accept your negative point about Robinson, I'd have to accept that Morris somehow made his floor-mates better defensive rebounders, a statement I can't imagine you'd want to make.

But, really, lets discuss some good players instead of Thomas Robinson and Markieff Morris! Please...?

[Dat2U]

That's not an accurate description of WP48, but honestly Dat I don't give a sh*t about WP48; I'm not going to become its spokesperson. I will say this, however: PER does do what you describe -- and it correlates at somewhere about 80%. EFF also does that, and it correlates at a lower rate. It's the correlation that makes a metric useful. Nothing else.

I didn't explain defense only by way of defensive boards; of course not. I have no argument with the idea that Morris is a better (much better, whatever...) defender than Robinson (who is not one of my favorite players by any means -- why would he be?). My point was rather in the other direction. When a player is on the court, you get everything he does, all of it. If a player gets more offensive boards than another at the same position, then that delta affects defense by making the team have to play less of it. There's no way out of that fact as far as I can see.

Hence, it's a fact that I don't have an urge for us to sign Thomas Robinson, but it's also a fact that he gets more O boards than Morris (and more defensive boards than all of Morris' rebounds!).

Looking at your data tables -- for which thanks -- just so I understand, the last table says that when Robinson was off the court, the team's defensive rebounding went down 5.8%. Do I have that right? If so, that's a fact -- but, alas, it can't be given any meaning whatsoever, because there is no definition to the baseline. Overall, the guys he plays with don't do as good job on the defensive boards as the guys who are on the floor in units that don't include him, that much is clear. But, since I don't know anything about those units or about who else is on the floor when he is, I have no way to assess his role in that 5.8% decline.

Hence, when you say "he significantly hurt them on the defensive boards when he played", you don't have a basis for the statement. In fact, no other Net pulled down anywhere near as many defensive boards per time on the floor as Thomas Robinson did. He's more than 20% better than any other Net in that regard.

Morris was a starter w/ the Wizards. His unit rebounded a little better than the backups. For me to accept your negative point about Robinson, I'd have to accept that Morris somehow made his floor-mates better defensive rebounders, a statement I can't imagine you'd want to make.

But, really, lets discuss some good players instead of Thomas Robinson and Markieff Morris! Please...?

Part of rebounding is blocking out. A guy may be a fairly prolific rebounder himself, but if he doesn't block out when he doesn't have the chance to secure the defensive rebound himself, that can potentially cost his team defensive rebounds overall. For the Nets defensive rebounding percentage to dip 5.8% while Robinson, a prolific rebounder, is on the floor is eye opening. Bottom line, rebounding is more than just the total you see in his box score.

[payitforward]

Part of rebounding is blocking out. A guy may be a fairly prolific rebounder himself, but if he doesn't block out when he doesn't have the chance to secure the defensive rebound himself, that can potentially cost his team defensive rebounds overall. For the Nets defensive rebounding percentage to dip 5.8% while Robinson, a prolific rebounder, is on the floor is eye opening. Bottom line, rebounding is more than just the total you see in his box score.

Sure, and as soon as you show me an actual piece of evidence that Robinson doesn't block out when he hasn't got the chance to get the board himself, why then it can be considered. Until then, it has no bearing on an actual situation being analyzed -- it's just something you thought of and wrote down, because it seemed to support your previous point.

Btw, I don't mind going back and forth like this -- it's not as much fun as discussing how we should use our picks, but it does beat moaning that we don't have any. All the same, I'm not interested in there being any heat or tension connected to it. If there is for you, just let me know and I'll be glad to stop.

That said, you're a good rhetorician, Dat. And once you want something to be true you'll never be at a loss for new ways to invent evidence to support your claim. But, in truth, we both know that Markieff Morris is far from a good player, and the more guys like him we have on our roster the more certain it is that we'll be a crappy team and stay one and find newer and newer ways to be one.

As to Thomas Robinson, signing him wouldn't make any difference whatsoever to the Wizards, positive or negative.

But other things might. Satoransky coming over might improve us a little. Oubre developing would improve us a little. Both those things would be nice. But neither of them, and nothing else Ernie can do short-term, will move us one inch towards being a team that can contend for a title. Yet, sports is competition, and contending is what it's about.

After six years of rebuilding we are no closer to contending than we were when we started. And we've traded away future assets as well, to get ourselves to the place where we are: scratching and clawing to achieve "average" -- maybe. It's been a pathetic spectacle even though, yes, there have been some fun high points (relatively high, that is). Remember them well; they aren't coming again any time soon.

[Dat2U]

Part of rebounding is blocking out. A guy may be a fairly prolific rebounder himself, but if he doesn't block out when he doesn't have the chance to secure the defensive rebound himself, that can potentially cost his team defensive rebounds overall. For the Nets defensive rebounding percentage to dip 5.8% while Robinson, a prolific rebounder, is on the floor is eye opening. Bottom line, rebounding is more than just the total you see in his box score.

Sure, and as soon as you show me an actual piece of evidence that Robinson doesn't block out when he hasn't got the chance to get the board himself, why then it can be considered. Until then, it has no bearing on an actual situation being analyzed -- it's just something you thought of and wrote down, because it seemed to support your previous point.

Btw, I don't mind going back and forth like this -- it's not as much fun as discussing how we should use our picks, but it does beat moaning that we don't have any. All the same, I'm not interested in there being any heat or tension connected to it. If there is for you, just let me know and I'll be glad to stop.

That said, you're a good rhetorician, Dat. And once you want something to be true you'll never be at a loss for new ways to invent evidence to support your claim. But, in truth, we both know that Markieff Morris is far from a good player, and the more guys like him we have on our roster the more certain it is that we'll be a crappy team and stay one and find newer and newer ways to be one.

As to Thomas Robinson, signing him wouldn't make any difference whatsoever to the Wizards, positive or negative.

But other things might. Satoransky coming over might improve us a little. Oubre developing would improve us a little. Both those things would be nice. But neither of them, and nothing else Ernie can do short-term, will move us one inch towards being a team that can contend for a title. Yet, sports is competition, and contending is what it's about.

After six years of rebuilding we are no closer to contending than we were when we started. And we've traded away future assets as well, to get ourselves to the place where we are: scratching and clawing to achieve "average" -- maybe. It's been a pathetic spectacle even though, yes, there have been some fun high points (relatively high, that is). Remember them well; they aren't coming again any time soon.

Robinson is a big negative. Whenever he's played during his entire NBA career, he's significantly hurt his team on both sides of the ball.

Watching two Wizards vs. Nets games in person, I can personally attest to seeing Robinson ball watching opponent misses. He's actually a very good offensive rebounder due to his aggressiveness but on the defensive boards he's a complete mess. He seems to get lost a lot. I think he's got piss poor awareness and just very limited at what he does. He's a solid athlete and likely wants to do well... rebounding is a low IQ skill that's probably the easiest to master, especially on the offensive end because it's all about effort. Obviously you won't consider this because you can't measure it in statistics and there's a lot that NBA statistics haven't quite figured out how to measure yet. That doesn't mean one can't rely on the eye test and infer a particular opinion based on what statistical tools are currently available. If a guy's defensive on/off are consistently terrible over the years, one can infer he's a poor defender even if a productivity stat like wp48 likes him.

Now back to Markieff, I didn't like the trade one bit. I mentioned Markieff last off-season and very early on this year because I thought he represented good value considering his contract and the fact the Suns were looking to dump him. I have no idea why Ernie felt a top-nine protected pick was needed to secure Markieff's services considering the Suns couldn't get a 1st round pick for him prior to the deadline... his value tanking so much with each outburst that there was talk of buying him out if they weren't able to move him this off-season. Markieff had a terrible year with Phoenix, it's obvious he mailed it in... but after a slow start with the Wizards he did play much better IMO, especially on the defensive end. While not the most productive player, Markieff has proven effective in the past. Ideally he's a 20 minute backup (which is why I want a guy like Amir, Marvin Williams or Loul Deng to challenge him for the starting position if possible).

[payitforward]

Robinson is a big negative. Whenever he's played during his entire NBA career, he's significantly hurt his team on both sides of the ball.

Watching two Wizards vs. Nets games in person, I can personally attest to seeing Robinson ball watching opponent misses. He's actually a very good offensive rebounder due to his aggressiveness but on the defensive boards he's a complete mess. He seems to get lost a lot. I think he's got piss poor awareness and just very limited at what he does. He's a solid athlete and likely wants to do well... rebounding is a low IQ skill that's probably the easiest to master, especially on the offensive end because it's all about effort. Obviously you won't consider this because you can't measure it in statistics and there's a lot that NBA statistics haven't quite figured out how to measure yet. That doesn't mean one can't rely on the eye test and infer a particular opinion based on what statistical tools are currently available. If a guy's defensive on/off are consistently terrible over the years, one can infer he's a poor defender even if a productivity stat like wp48 likes him.

Look... Robinson is not a good player. I didn't say he was. I don't want him. He looked likely to be a bust when he came out, and he has been a bust.

As to effort, does effort show in what a player accomplishes or not? If effort doesn't show in what a player accomplishes, then why would you, I, or anyone care about effort? But if effort does show in what a guy gets done -- & of course it does! -- then the numbers include it, hence, yes, statistics does measure effort.

As to what you saw in watching 2 games vs. the Nets, come on Dat, a little research on the subject of seeing (and hearing, etc.) what we think we "should" see suffices to put that out of the picture. Not to mention that a 2 game sample, in which (I assume) he probably played 10 minutes a game, can't be the basis for much.

Again, I didn't say Robinson was a good player. All I did was compare what Robinson produces to what Morris produces. Hence, when you say that "on the defensive boards he's (Robinson is) a complete mess," I'm kind of obliged to mention that over his entire 5 year career, Robinson has averaged 9.6 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes, whereas Markieff Morris, over his entire 5 year career, has averaged 6.5 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes.

Again... I didn't say that means Robinson is good. He isn't. But that number does mean that Thomas Robinson is a better defensive rebounder than Markieff Morris, and it can't be made to mean anything else. Ditto the offensive rebounding delta -- which is even greater.

Now back to Markieff, I didn't like the trade one bit. I mentioned Markieff last off-season and very early on this year because I thought he represented good value considering his contract and the fact the Suns were looking to dump him. I have no idea why Ernie felt a top-nine protected pick was needed to secure Markieff's services considering the Suns couldn't get a 1st round pick for him prior to the deadline... his value tanking so much with each outburst that there was talk of buying him out if they weren't able to move him this off-season. Markieff had a terrible year with Phoenix, it's obvious he mailed it in... but after a slow start with the Wizards he did play much better IMO, especially on the defensive end. While not the most productive player, Markieff has proven effective in the past. Ideally he's a 20 minute backup (which is why I want a guy like Amir, Marvin Williams or Loul Deng to challenge him for the starting position if possible).

I'd love to have Amir Johnson or any other PF who is actually good; we have no argument there.

But I don't believe it's possible to substantiate the statement that "Markieff has proven effective in the past." In fact, he's been awful every year in the league except 2013-14 when he was still below average.

As to his 704 minutes w/ us, they too were awful. Like you, I can remember, eye test moments when he looked good on defense. So what? Those moments don't stack up against the overall dismal quality of his play. Nor did we get better as a team because of his play. Far from good value, his contract is just money wasted.

Again -- last words on this subject -- that doesn't mean I want to replace him with Thomas Robinson. Robinson is a bad player whom I used as a way to highlight how bad Markieff Morris is. That's all.

[pcbothwel]

I have previously stated my preference for 1 year contracts if we miss out on KD and Whiteside as I love 2017. But im now to the point where I have to list my wants with respect to reality. And the reality for the Wizards this offseason is:
1) The Wiz will re-sign Beal. (Just assume the max)
2) EG wont repeat last year's all expiring team as that would hamstring Brooks.

I (and other posters) should move forward with all projections and/or road maps with the above two assumptions as concrete.
So if we assume that we can sign KD or Whiteside then that opens up other trade possibilities.

But assuming we miss out on those two, then I would like to see the following plan with the aim towards cap space in 2018. As That is the last year that we could sign a big time FA while still having Wall, Beal, Otto, Sato, and Oubre. After that, Wall, Oubre, and Sato (Assuming 3 year deal this summer) are all FA.

So the question is what players could we get via FA this summer could be legit contributors and would take 2 year contracts.

Backup C: Nene, Noah, Mahinmi
Throw out a 2 year deal at 8-9M per and see who bites

Backup PF/Stretch 4: Deng, Marvin Williams, Anderson
Throw out a 2 year deal at 10-12M per and see who bites

Backup 2/wing: Satoransky
3 year deal in the 4-5M per year range should suffice. Maybe 6M at most

Backup pg: Augustin, Bayless, Jennings
Most of those guys would take a 1 year deal, but 2 wouldnt hurt in this scenario

The point of this is to surround our "Core" with playable vets and see if Brooks can help them elevate their game:

Wall / Jennings
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Morris / Deng
Gortat / Nene

This is a playoff caliber team and gives Brooks two years to see if young guys make the jump. If they do, then we go into Summer 2018 with about 20M in capspace (Assumes 115M cap and 4/70M deal for Otto).

While 20M doesnt sound like quite enough, remember that we would have Morris as an 8.6M expiring and Gortat as a 13.5M expiring so send back in a trade or simply dump if needed. Favors, DeAndre Jordan and Cousins are all very interesting Centers to watch over the next two years.

If the next two years prove that our young guys arent what we hoped, then fire-sale here we come.

[Rafael122]

So now the cap will be at $94 million, so we're up to $29 million in cap space now?

[pcbothwel]

So now the cap will be at $94 million, so we're up to $29 million in cap space now?

With Beal's cap hold, we're at just under 32M.

Man thats frustrating. We could max Whiteside, trade Gortat for picks/rookie contracts, sign Satoransky, a legit stretch 4, backup 5, and then have the Room exception for a backup PG.

[nate33]

I wonder if we can sign Beal to a max contract but with declining yearly salary? He would start at $21.6M, but each year it would cost about $1.6M less. The idea here is to bring down his salary while the league salary is going up. This summer, his price would seem absurdly high, but in 2 years, he'll cost $18.4M at a time when the salary cap is $108M and a 4-year vet max contract starts at $25M. Then it starts seeming reasonable.

If the idea is to maintain salary flexibility in 2018, then we need to start signing declining contracts now.

[payitforward]

So now the cap will be at $94 million, so we're up to $29 million in cap space now?

With Beal's cap hold, we're at just under 32M.

Man thats frustrating. We could max Whiteside, trade Gortat for picks/rookie contracts, sign Satoransky, a legit stretch 4, backup 5, and then have the Room exception for a backup PG.

Not sure I follow.... Leaving aside the Gortat trade for a moment, if we signed Beal and maxed Whiteside, I believe that would put us at $87-88m in salaries for seven players. Sign Satoransky for $5-6m, and we are at the cap with 8 players.

Assume we use the room exception for a backup PG, that's 9 players. How are we getting that stretch 4 and backup 5? How are we getting the other 3-4 players we need? The proposed Gortat trade takes us down to 8 players and gives us -- how many and whom?

Just seeking understanding here -- I'm all for trading for youth, signing Satoransky, getting Whiteside, etc.

[Wizardspride]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/BenStandig/status/744348134931894272[/tweet]

[payitforward]

Maybe he'll be on our SL team -- would be nice to see him play after a stretch in Europe.

[AFM]

He got a job there putting the chili on the half smokes.

[pineappleheadindc]

I wonder if we can sign Beal to a max contract but with declining yearly salary? He would start at $21.6M, but each year it would cost about $1.6M less. The idea here is to bring down his salary while the league salary is going up. This summer, his price would seem absurdly high, but in 2 years, he'll cost $18.4M at a time when the salary cap is $108M and a 4-year vet max contract starts at $25M. Then it starts seeming reasonable.

If the idea is to maintain salary flexibility in 2018, then we need to start signing declining contracts now.

Didnt the Bulls do this to their benefit previously?

Only issue is that it feels like we're saying that we'll be a middling team this year and next b/c of our more limited cap availability. This, coupled with Ernie's giving away this years draft pick, messages that we have limited hope in the near future for anything but the dead, meh, middle of the pack or worse win/loss record

But is *would* lock Beal in AND give us more cap flexibility in the future, that's for sure.

[pcbothwel]

So now the cap will be at $94 million, so we're up to $29 million in cap space now?

With Beal's cap hold, we're at just under 32M.

Man thats frustrating. We could max Whiteside, trade Gortat for picks/rookie contracts, sign Satoransky, a legit stretch 4, backup 5, and then have the Room exception for a backup PG.

Not sure I follow.... Leaving aside the Gortat trade for a moment, if we signed Beal and maxed Whiteside, I believe that would put us at $87-88m in salaries for seven players. Sign Satoransky for $5-6m, and we are at the cap with 8 players.

Assume we use the room exception for a backup PG, that's 9 players. How are we getting that stretch 4 and backup 5? How are we getting the other 3-4 players we need? The proposed Gortat trade takes us down to 8 players and gives us -- how many and whom?

Just seeking understanding here -- I'm all for trading for youth, signing Satoransky, getting Whiteside, etc.

I think your calculation assumes a Max Beal. I am using his 14.8M Cap hold. Whiteside, Wall, Gortat, Morris, Beal, Porter, Oubre, 5 min cap holds, and Websters stretch puts us at about 85.5M.

- Add Sato for 5M, remove one cap hold. Then you're at 90M
- That gives you 4M in capspace and Gortat (12M) to use to get us the backup 4 and 5.
- Room exception for backup PG.

Did that provide Clarity?

As for Gortat, the obvious fit has been Boston. But a sleeper trade could be Charlotte for Zeller. Zeller would be a great hustle big man to backup Whiteside and for cheap.

That then gives us 10.5M + the Room Exception to add a stretch 4, PG and depth.

Throw a 1+1 deal at Deng for 10-11M and then one of the many PGs with the exception.

Wall / Augustin
Beal / Sato
Otto / Oubre
Morris / Deng
Whiteside / Zeller

[80sballboy]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2016/6/20/11974960/allen-crabbe-washington-wizards-shooter-nba-free-agency-2016

[Rafael122]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2016/6/20/11974960/allen-crabbe-washington-wizards-shooter-nba-free-agency-2016

I think he'd be a good signing, but he's a RFA and I'm sure Portland will match any offer that comes his way. We'd essentially be wasting our time.

[montestewart]

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2016/6/20/11974960/allen-crabbe-washington-wizards-shooter-nba-free-agency-2016

Crabbe dribble joke here.

[80sballboy]

It doesn't hurt to pursue Crabbe, even if he's restricted.

[FAH1223]

Only two more weeks until Ernie signs more Eric Maynors.

This is going to be a disaster of an offseason. Looking forward to it.