Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[doclinkin]

TBH, I think pretty often we (you, me, all of us) start by deciding who we think is good, who's better than whom, & only then do we try to make the numbers support that position.

Actually in the case of Turner I started out thinking he was good, then looked at his 82games.com on/off data for the past few years, even his peak years, and it looks like his counterpart at C was outplaying him, whichever year I picked. Even the defensive +/- stats. Strange. Maybe the answer for why the defense has always been good in Indy is simply: Nate McMillan.

[Dat2U]

Myles Turner is a massive upgrade defensively but I have a hard time burning assets to acquire a pricey 2nd tier C.

That said, you can be optimistic about Bryant and his offensive production and recognize he is NOT a starting C for team with significant postseason goals at this moment. The rebounds and offensive efficiency mean nothing if we're giving up 125 a night.

[nate33]

And I'm not cherry-picking Turner's best year. I'm logically accounting for the fact that centers get more rebounds than forwards. When Turner plays center, he rebounds nearly as well as Bryant.

Well, first off, I don't think one can single out that year as "when Turner plays Center." It's true that as a rookie, with Mahinmi & Jordan Hill eating up most of the minutes at C, Turner spent more than half his time at the 4. He averaged 9.7 rebounds per 40 minutes. But, in his 2d year, he started at Center & averaged 9.25 rebounds per 40 minutes.

His 3d year, the first with Sabonis on the team --> 9.08 boards per 40 minutes. His 4th year, the one you cite, his rebounding increased some --> 10 rebounds per 40 minutes -- his best results. Just like the preceding year, Sabonis is on the team. & he is again this year yet now Turner drops to his worst figure yet --> 8.92 boards/40 minutes.

I.e. He & Sabonis are both playing lots of minutes when Turner rebounds the most & when he rebounds the least.

Sabonis and Turner started last year. Therefore, Turner played a lot of minutes at PF.

The year before, Sabonis was a bench player. So Turner started and played 3/4ths of his minutes at center.

[nate33]

TBH, I think pretty often we (you, me, all of us) start by deciding who we think is good, who's better than whom, & only then do we try to make the numbers support that position.

Actually in the case of Turner I started out thinking he was good, then looked at his 82games.com on/off data for the past few years, even his peak years, and it looks like his counterpart at C was outplaying him, whichever year I picked.

I don't know how much counterpart stats tell us. First of all, it's possible to play great help defense, but as a result, your man scores a bit more than he should. Secondly, 82games' tracking data isn't very precise. I note that it considered Turner the center in virtually all of his minutes last year, even though he essentially played PF. It may have been Sabonis' man (the opposite team's center) who was scoring a lot, but since Turner was designated the C and Sabonis the PF, it attributed the counterpart scoring data to Turner.

Maybe the answer for why the defense has always been good in Indy is simply: Nate McMillan.

This is a distinct possibility.

One last point: I think it's notable that USA Basketball invited Turner to play on the World Cup team in 2019. He is certainly respected around the league.

[pcbothwel]

Myles Turner is a massive upgrade defensively but I have a hard time burning assets to acquire a pricey 2nd tier C.

That said, you can be optimistic about Bryant and his offensive production and recognize he is NOT a starting C for team with significant postseason goals at this moment. The rebounds and offensive efficiency mean nothing if we're giving up 125 a night.

Agreed. My argument is that we can mitigate much of that through:
1) A quality backup, defensive minded Center that can take on tough assignments or when Bryant doesnt appear "Locked in". Noel, WCS, Favors, Thompson, etc. are all FA that could be had with the MLE or less and take on that role. Okongwu is also a legit option as is Achiuwa.

2) Better surrounding cast. More minutes for Bonga, growth from Rui & Brown, and no more IT will help Bryant immensely.

3) Growth: As I mentioned earlier, hard working bigs with IQ routinely get better with age in regards to defense. Tons of guys get better in their mid 20's on the defensive side as the game slows down. The FA's above (Favors, WCS, Noel) all improved from their early 20's to their mid 20's. Kanter is a great example of a guy who was basically unplayable in big games despite high level efficiency and rebounding... but he improved defensively and is viewed differently.
Two other players very similar to Bryant are Vucevic and Valanciunas. Big, long, efficient, rebounding big men that just didnt have the foot speed defensively (sound like someone we know?).

Lets just give Bryant the opportunity to improve, thats all.

[WizarDynasty]

Myles Turner is a massive upgrade defensively but I have a hard time burning assets to acquire a pricey 2nd tier C.

That said, you can be optimistic about Bryant and his offensive production and recognize he is NOT a starting C for team with significant postseason goals at this moment. The rebounds and offensive efficiency mean nothing if we're giving up 125 a night.

Agreed. My argument is that we can mitigate much of that through:
1) A quality backup, defensive minded Center that can take on tough assignments or when Bryant doesnt appear "Locked in". Noel, WCS, Favors, Thompson, etc. are all FA that could be had with the MLE or less and take on that role. Okongwu is also a legit option as is Achiuwa.

2) Better surrounding cast. More minutes for Bonga, growth from Rui & Brown, and no more IT will help Bryant immensely.

3) Growth: As I mentioned earlier, hard working bigs with IQ routinely get better with age in regards to defense. Tons of guys get better in their mid 20's on the defensive side as the game slows down. The FA's above (Favors, WCS, Noel) all improved from their early 20's to their mid 20's. Kanter is a great example of a guy who was basically unplayable in big games despite high level efficiency and rebounding... but he improved defensively and is viewed differently.
Two other players very similar to Bryant are Vucevic and Valanciunas. Big, long, efficient, rebounding big men that just didnt have the foot speed defensively (sound like someone we know?).

Lets just give Bryant the opportunity to improve, thats all.

Bryant has very slow recovery time when making one athletic movement. Poor hip bend and can't maintain a long deep hip bend. He doesn't have quick second leap. He works hard, but just isn't that athletic and quick twitched. Nice that he can space the floor, but you lose alot of hustle rebounds that u get from a high energy quick twitch center. He is getting better but I think he should be 2nd big, not first big.

[payitforward]

Even if WD is right about Bryant -- nothing about Bryant is a reason to trade for Turner! Even if it wasn't Bryant who was traded, & so it was possible to do it the way WD says, with Bryant as "2d big, not first big."

Turner is simply not good enough to pay $18m a year for the next 3 years. Period. Especially not for this team to do it.

[Dark Faze]

Bryant has very slow recovery time when making one athletic movement. Poor hip bend and can't maintain a long deep hip bend. He doesn't have quick second leap. He works hard, but just isn't that athletic and quick twitched. Nice that he can space the floor, but you lose alot of hustle rebounds that u get from a high energy quick twitch center. He is getting better but I think he should be 2nd big, not first big.

Who do you like most in the draft from a physical standpoint at the position?

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[nate33]

Bryant has very slow recovery time when making one athletic movement. Poor hip bend and can't maintain a long deep hip bend. He doesn't have quick second leap. He works hard, but just isn't that athletic and quick twitched. Nice that he can space the floor, but you lose alot of hustle rebounds that u get from a high energy quick twitch center. He is getting better but I think he should be 2nd big, not first big.

Who do you like most in the draft from a physical standpoint at the position?

WizD has made it pretty clear that he likes Achiuwa and Anthony Edwards as the best athletes.

[WizarDynasty]

There is notalot of talent in draft. Okongwu is an upgrade over bryant.

I think Nnajii is a big upgrade over bryant. I think nnajii is an average starter with excellent floor spacing. I think he does everything better than bryant.
If you get Nnaji, you are getting the steal of the draft. His footwork, hip bend, back arch into his shot.
This guy is amazing. He is shorter than I like at 8'10 but wow. He is a lottery pick. He has built in tools that cant be taught and his 3 point shot is amazing. He will easily replace Bertans. If we walked away only with nnajii I would be quite happy. Not saying he is 9th overall pick, but if we got nnajii and another great player over achiuwa at 9. I would be happy. Now okongwu replacing bryant also makes me happy. But combo of nnaji and Cole Anthony or a highly tamed guard that slips into 20's. But achiuwa and nnaji. Our front court is set for the next decade. Nnaji with 3 point floor spacing, and both nnaji and achiuwa are lock down perimeter defenders that can rebound. You cant ask for any thing better.

[Ruzious]

Nnaji was almost shockingly bad at blocking shots and didn't put up impressive steals numbers - makes me wonder if he can defend in the NBA. Also more than twice as many to's as assists. But very good measurements, and he can score. Also, he gets to the line a lot and makes his FT's. I think Daniel Oturu is a similar prospect. I think it's a tossup between them.

[payitforward]

WD -- suppose a guy has great hip bend, etc. & he gets into his shot quickly & with great form. But for whatever reason... the shots don't go in the bucket? Maybe it's something about how he sees? Maybe it's something that isn't visible to an observer: like with one of his fingers or... something.

Zeke Nnaji hit the college 3-pointer at a .291% clip. Yet...

...If you get Nnaji, you are getting the steal of the draft. His ...3 point shot is amazing. He will easily replace Bertans. ...

If a guy misses his shots, you don't get to go to the ref at the end of the game, & ask whether he noticed the player's hip bend & will give us some points for that.

I'm not critical here, I'm just perplexed. Zeke Nnaji is, evidently, a poor 3-point shooter -- on the only evidence that matters -- yet, to you, he is amazing.

Please explain.

[Ruzious]

WD -- suppose a guy has great hip bend, etc. & he gets into his shot quickly & with great form. But for whatever reason... the shots don't go in the bucket? Maybe it's something about how he sees? Maybe it's something that isn't visible to an observer: like with one of his fingers or... something.

Zeke Nnaji hit the college 3-pointer at a .291% clip. Yet...

...If you get Nnaji, you are getting the steal of the draft. His ...3 point shot is amazing. He will easily replace Bertans. ...

If a guy misses his shots, you don't get to go to the ref at the end of the game, & ask whether he noticed the player's hip bend & will give us some points for that.

I'm not critical here, I'm just perplexed. Zeke Nnaji is, evidently, a poor 3-point shooter -- on the only evidence that matters -- yet, to you, he is amazing.

Please explain.

Nno for Nnaji? Ok, I'll keep my day job.

Just a thought I'll blame on Doc since he espoused the idea of trading for future 1sts from teams that are likely to be future bad. OKC just traded for the 28th pick in the Schroder deal... Assuming Okongwu and Haliburton are gone when we pick at 9, have them give us the 25th and 28th picks plus the rights to trade our '21 first for their '21 first, and we give them the 9th & 37th picks. I see them having a big fall this season - especially if they trade Paul - or if Paul falls off the cliff at 35/36. Say we pick 2 of TBey, Jaden McDaniels Tillman, Reed, Pritchard and Flynn with those 2 picks. Yes, it's risky, but Tommy would be betting on his team (and against OKC). And I'll throw this in for Pif - We buy a mid 2nd rounder to get Nate Hinton.

Or make it trickier - We also have the option of making the pick we give them our 2022 1st rather than our 2021 1st.

[TGW]

#9 pick for OKC draft picks #25, #28, Rockets 2021 pick (top 4 protected)

Who says no?

[nate33]

#9 pick for OKC draft picks #25, #28, Rockets 2021 pick (top 4 protected)

Who says no?

I don't like it. I don't see Houston tanking anytime soon since they don't own their own 1st round pick for the next 5 years. They may move Westbrook and/or Harden, but it will be for win-now talent

[Ruzious]

Btw, after the trades OKC's made, this is a list of their FRP's:

Read on Twitter

[queridiculo]

#9 pick for OKC draft picks #25, #28, Rockets 2021 pick (top 4 protected)

Who says no?

That's a definite no here.

[payitforward]

Just a thought I'll blame on Doc since he espoused the idea of trading for future 1sts from teams that are likely to be future bad. OKC just traded for the 28th pick in the Schroder deal... ...(they) give us the 25th and 28th picks plus the rights to trade our '21 first for their '21 first, (in return for) the 9th & 37th picks....

I see no need to give them the 37th in that deal, Ruz. In fact, for 9 & 37 I would want 25, 28 & their next year R1 (which they are likely to see as being somewhere around the #20 mark).

...Say we pick 2 of TBey, Jaden McDaniels, Tillman, Reed, Pritchard and Flynn with those 2 picks. Yes, it's risky, but Tommy would be betting on his team (and against OKC). And I'll throw this in for Pif - We buy a mid 2nd rounder to get Nate Hinton.....

...Or make ...the pick we give them our 2022 1st rather than our 2021 1st.

I.e. we get their 2021 R1 pick, & they get our '22 R1 pick -- if we choose to execute that part of the trade?

[queridiculo]

Btw, after the trades OKC's made, this is a list of their FRP's:

Those 2024 through 2026 picks and swap options are looking so good for the Thunder.

It's as if Billy King was running two franchises and Presti is Danny Ainge.

Is anybody really surprised that Morey waved the towel?