Moderators: montestewart, LyricalRico, nate33
tontoz wrote:The CDC tracks COVID deaths by age group.
If you go to table 3 and hit the monthly tab on the bottom there is a lot of info there. I looked strictly at the COVID 19 deaths with no other conditions.
Comparing September to January which was peak covid deaths in the USA the results tell a very clear picture. COVID deaths fell sharply for people over 54 and actually went up for people under 54.
DCZards wrote:tontoz wrote:The CDC tracks COVID deaths by age group.
If you go to table 3 and hit the monthly tab on the bottom there is a lot of info there. I looked strictly at the COVID 19 deaths with no other conditions.
Comparing September to January which was peak covid deaths in the USA the results tell a very clear picture. COVID deaths fell sharply for people over 54 and actually went up for people under 54.
That's because far too many of the young and healthy refuse to accept the fact that getting vaccinated is the smart thing to do. They'll eventually figure it out...if they don't die first.
dckingsfan wrote:DCZards wrote:tontoz wrote:The CDC tracks COVID deaths by age group.
If you go to table 3 and hit the monthly tab on the bottom there is a lot of info there. I looked strictly at the COVID 19 deaths with no other conditions.
Comparing September to January which was peak covid deaths in the USA the results tell a very clear picture. COVID deaths fell sharply for people over 54 and actually went up for people under 54.
That's because far too many of the young and healthy refuse to accept the fact that getting vaccinated is the smart thing to do. They'll eventually figure it out...if they don't die first.
The problem is they are using what they learned last year from Alpha and haven't readjusted to Delta.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalizations-vaccination
Delta is much worse than previous versions of covid19. By late August, the hospitalization rate for unvaccinated people was 4x what it was in late January.
We can really still hit some big hospitalization and mortality counts even with low numbers of people unvaccinated/unexposed.
nate33 wrote:dckingsfan wrote:DCZards wrote:That's because far too many of the young and healthy refuse to accept the fact that getting vaccinated is the smart thing to do. They'll eventually figure it out...if they don't die first.
The problem is they are using what they learned last year from Alpha and haven't readjusted to Delta.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#covidnet-hospitalizations-vaccination
Delta is much worse than previous versions of covid19. By late August, the hospitalization rate for unvaccinated people was 4x what it was in late January.
We can really still hit some big hospitalization and mortality counts even with low numbers of people unvaccinated/unexposed.
Delta spreads faster, but isn't more virulent. Hospitalization rates are up because the vaccine is ripping through more people in a shorter period of time, but not because a Delta infection is more harmful than an Alpha infection. And the speed of spread is being amplified by vaccinated asymptomatic superspreaders whom we know from the UK data are MORE likely to be infected than unvaccinated people.
Ultimately, this only ends once about 80% of us have had it. So increasing the rate of spread doesn't really affect death rates in the long run. It only shortens the time horizon.
But what concerns me is that there is now data showing that when vaccinated people catch Covid, they don't produce the sterilizing type N nucleocapsid antibodies that actually prevent the spread, and they aren't producing a strong T-cell response that is likely to give them a much more permanent resistance to Covid. Basically, you have to get boosters forever. There's a chance, and the science isn't yet clear on this, that vaccinations may be prolonging the problem.
nate33 wrote:A massive study on natural immunity just came out, from Qatar.
They tracked 353,326 individuals who had been infected prior to April 2021.
They dropped 87,547 from the study because they subsequently got vaccinated.
That left them with a sample of 265,779 people with prior infection and no subsequent vaccination.
In that group of "naturally immune" people, a total of 1304 got reinfected over the next 3-14 months. That's an infection rate of just 0.5% despite Qatar experiencing two back-to-back Covid waves between January and May of 2021.
Of those 1304 who got reinfected, a grand total of 4 of them required hospitalization, 0 required ICU, and 0 died. (Of those 4 hospitalized, 1 had diabetes, 1 had hypertension, 1 had asthma, and 1 had "unknown status" of preconditions.)
They also compared the odds of hospitalization on reinfection versus hospitalization upon first infection. Only 4 out of 1304 people required hospitalization upon reinfection, versus 158 out of a demographically matching sample of 6095 on their first infection. Essentially, the hospitalization risk after reinfection is just 12% that of the hospitalization risk of a first infection. So, reinfection is very rare, and even if it happens, hospitalization risk is massively reduced.
Basically, natural immunity is close to a sure bet for Covid immunity. And no study I've seen has demonstrated any statistical evidence that immunity wanes.
Kanyewest wrote:nate33 wrote:A massive study on natural immunity just came out, from Qatar.
They tracked 353,326 individuals who had been infected prior to April 2021.
They dropped 87,547 from the study because they subsequently got vaccinated.
That left them with a sample of 265,779 people with prior infection and no subsequent vaccination.
In that group of "naturally immune" people, a total of 1304 got reinfected over the next 3-14 months. That's an infection rate of just 0.5% despite Qatar experiencing two back-to-back Covid waves between January and May of 2021.
Of those 1304 who got reinfected, a grand total of 4 of them required hospitalization, 0 required ICU, and 0 died. (Of those 4 hospitalized, 1 had diabetes, 1 had hypertension, 1 had asthma, and 1 had "unknown status" of preconditions.)
They also compared the odds of hospitalization on reinfection versus hospitalization upon first infection. Only 4 out of 1304 people required hospitalization upon reinfection, versus 158 out of a demographically matching sample of 6095 on their first infection. Essentially, the hospitalization risk after reinfection is just 12% that of the hospitalization risk of a first infection. So, reinfection is very rare, and even if it happens, hospitalization risk is massively reduced.
Basically, natural immunity is close to a sure bet for Covid immunity. And no study I've seen has demonstrated any statistical evidence that immunity wanes.
Qatar seems to have done well in regards to Covid. Only 611 deaths out of 243 K cases. Of course their vaccination rate stands at 88 percent of their eligible population (https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/qatar/).
Kanyewest wrote:nate33 wrote:A massive study on natural immunity just came out, from Qatar.
They tracked 353,326 individuals who had been infected prior to April 2021.
They dropped 87,547 from the study because they subsequently got vaccinated.
That left them with a sample of 265,779 people with prior infection and no subsequent vaccination.
In that group of "naturally immune" people, a total of 1304 got reinfected over the next 3-14 months. That's an infection rate of just 0.5% despite Qatar experiencing two back-to-back Covid waves between January and May of 2021.
Of those 1304 who got reinfected, a grand total of 4 of them required hospitalization, 0 required ICU, and 0 died. (Of those 4 hospitalized, 1 had diabetes, 1 had hypertension, 1 had asthma, and 1 had "unknown status" of preconditions.)
They also compared the odds of hospitalization on reinfection versus hospitalization upon first infection. Only 4 out of 1304 people required hospitalization upon reinfection, versus 158 out of a demographically matching sample of 6095 on their first infection. Essentially, the hospitalization risk after reinfection is just 12% that of the hospitalization risk of a first infection. So, reinfection is very rare, and even if it happens, hospitalization risk is massively reduced.
Basically, natural immunity is close to a sure bet for Covid immunity. And no study I've seen has demonstrated any statistical evidence that immunity wanes.
Qatar seems to have done well in regards to Covid. Only 611 deaths out of 243 K cases. Of course their vaccination rate stands at 88 percent of their eligible population (https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/qatar/).
doclinkin wrote:Kanyewest wrote:nate33 wrote:A massive study on natural immunity just came out, from Qatar.
They tracked 353,326 individuals who had been infected prior to April 2021.
They dropped 87,547 from the study because they subsequently got vaccinated.
That left them with a sample of 265,779 people with prior infection and no subsequent vaccination.
In that group of "naturally immune" people, a total of 1304 got reinfected over the next 3-14 months. That's an infection rate of just 0.5% despite Qatar experiencing two back-to-back Covid waves between January and May of 2021.
Of those 1304 who got reinfected, a grand total of 4 of them required hospitalization, 0 required ICU, and 0 died. (Of those 4 hospitalized, 1 had diabetes, 1 had hypertension, 1 had asthma, and 1 had "unknown status" of preconditions.)
They also compared the odds of hospitalization on reinfection versus hospitalization upon first infection. Only 4 out of 1304 people required hospitalization upon reinfection, versus 158 out of a demographically matching sample of 6095 on their first infection. Essentially, the hospitalization risk after reinfection is just 12% that of the hospitalization risk of a first infection. So, reinfection is very rare, and even if it happens, hospitalization risk is massively reduced.
Basically, natural immunity is close to a sure bet for Covid immunity. And no study I've seen has demonstrated any statistical evidence that immunity wanes.
Qatar seems to have done well in regards to Covid. Only 611 deaths out of 243 K cases. Of course their vaccination rate stands at 88 percent of their eligible population (https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/qatar/).
Less than 5% of the population of Qatar is over age 55. Hard to know how studies of this population translate to the rest of the world given how young they skew demographically. In the US for example over 20% of our population is age 55 and up.
nate33 wrote:Surely, the fact that they are younger means they fare better with hospitalization and death. But that doesn't mean the study's central point about the effectiveness of natural immunity is invalidated.
doclinkin wrote:nate33 wrote:Surely, the fact that they are younger means they fare better with hospitalization and death. But that doesn't mean the study's central point about the effectiveness of natural immunity is invalidated.
How not? It means that the study is skewed towards a population noted to have more robust immune systems, and who are significantly more likely to be asymptomatic etc even on first infection. Effectively it states: "In a population where 95% of the residents are under the age of 55, natural immunity shows significant protection against re-infection".
FAH1223 wrote:Spoiler:
nate33 wrote:FAH1223 wrote:Spoiler:
That entire article is based on a false premise: that lockdowns and vaccine mandates do anything to impact Covid. It assumes that if we all just ignored Republicans and locked down harder, we could solve this.
This is demonstrably untrue. You can compare neighboring states having similar climates but differing philosophies, say Ohio versus Pennsylvania or Michigan; or Texas versus New Mexico, and you will see that the death rates are actually higher in the pro-lockdown states. You can see that Florida, with the oldest demographics in the nation, is about middle-of-the-pack in death rate. The same applies to other countries. Nobody can accuse the UK of being lax in their anti-Covid policies, but there is no difference in death rate versus other Western European countries.
Most of the variance in Europe can be explained by climate, culture and demographics. The German and Scandinavian countries are less "touchy feely" and have less intergenerational households, so they have lower Covid rates. The Central European and Mediterranean nations are older and live intergenerationally, and have higher Covid rates. Africans, South Asians and Middle Easterners are young and live in warm climates, and have fared well. The big outlier is South America which has been crushed. I suspect that those of Amerindian descent have less natural immunity for genetic reasons. We see the same pattern in the U.S. among Native Americans and Hispanics (though surely economic and cultural differences also apply).
Most of the variance in American states are due to climate and population density. You would be hard pressed to find any statistical data to demonstrate that policy has made any difference whatsoever.
Kanyewest wrote:nate33 wrote:FAH1223 wrote:Spoiler:
That entire article is based on a false premise: that lockdowns and vaccine mandates do anything to impact Covid. It assumes that if we all just ignored Republicans and locked down harder, we could solve this.
This is demonstrably untrue. You can compare neighboring states having similar climates but differing philosophies, say Ohio versus Pennsylvania or Michigan; or Texas versus New Mexico, and you will see that the death rates are actually higher in the pro-lockdown states. You can see that Florida, with the oldest demographics in the nation, is about middle-of-the-pack in death rate. The same applies to other countries. Nobody can accuse the UK of being lax in their anti-Covid policies, but there is no difference in death rate versus other Western European countries.
Most of the variance in Europe can be explained by climate, culture and demographics. The German and Scandinavian countries are less "touchy feely" and have less intergenerational households, so they have lower Covid rates. The Central European and Mediterranean nations are older and live intergenerationally, and have higher Covid rates. Africans, South Asians and Middle Easterners are young and live in warm climates, and have fared well. The big outlier is South America which has been crushed. I suspect that those of Amerindian descent have less natural immunity for genetic reasons. We see the same pattern in the U.S. among Native Americans and Hispanics (though surely economic and cultural differences also apply).
Most of the variance in American states are due to climate and population density. You would be hard pressed to find any statistical data to demonstrate that policy has made any difference whatsoever.
Are death rates actually higher in similar populated density states in 2021? For instance in 2020, fatalities in New York and Mass were very high but they were not following any social distancing mandates (everything was open). Even in states like Florida where there is a limited mandate, one could argue that at least the risk was known. And look to be in the same neighborhood right now as New York - despite less population densitity, despite having more time to prepare for the virus, despite warmer weather. Florida clearly has done a worse job in 2021 than most states.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
nate33 wrote:Kanyewest wrote:nate33 wrote:That entire article is based on a false premise: that lockdowns and vaccine mandates do anything to impact Covid. It assumes that if we all just ignored Republicans and locked down harder, we could solve this.
This is demonstrably untrue. You can compare neighboring states having similar climates but differing philosophies, say Ohio versus Pennsylvania or Michigan; or Texas versus New Mexico, and you will see that the death rates are actually higher in the pro-lockdown states. You can see that Florida, with the oldest demographics in the nation, is about middle-of-the-pack in death rate. The same applies to other countries. Nobody can accuse the UK of being lax in their anti-Covid policies, but there is no difference in death rate versus other Western European countries.
Most of the variance in Europe can be explained by climate, culture and demographics. The German and Scandinavian countries are less "touchy feely" and have less intergenerational households, so they have lower Covid rates. The Central European and Mediterranean nations are older and live intergenerationally, and have higher Covid rates. Africans, South Asians and Middle Easterners are young and live in warm climates, and have fared well. The big outlier is South America which has been crushed. I suspect that those of Amerindian descent have less natural immunity for genetic reasons. We see the same pattern in the U.S. among Native Americans and Hispanics (though surely economic and cultural differences also apply).
Most of the variance in American states are due to climate and population density. You would be hard pressed to find any statistical data to demonstrate that policy has made any difference whatsoever.
Are death rates actually higher in similar populated density states in 2021? For instance in 2020, fatalities in New York and Mass were very high but they were not following any social distancing mandates (everything was open). Even in states like Florida where there is a limited mandate, one could argue that at least the risk was known. And look to be in the same neighborhood right now as New York - despite less population densitity, despite having more time to prepare for the virus, despite warmer weather. Florida clearly has done a worse job in 2021 than most states.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
Age is the overwhelming variable that must be factored. Adjust for age and Florida ranks 23rd in deaths while NY ranks 7th.
https://www.bioinformaticscro.com/blog/states-ranked-by-age-adjusted-covid-deaths/
Also note that Florida now has the lowest death rate in the country so they will continue to improve in the ranking as we go through the winter.
Kanyewest wrote:nate33 wrote:Kanyewest wrote:
Are death rates actually higher in similar populated density states in 2021? For instance in 2020, fatalities in New York and Mass were very high but they were not following any social distancing mandates (everything was open). Even in states like Florida where there is a limited mandate, one could argue that at least the risk was known. And look to be in the same neighborhood right now as New York - despite less population densitity, despite having more time to prepare for the virus, despite warmer weather. Florida clearly has done a worse job in 2021 than most states.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
Age is the overwhelming variable that must be factored. Adjust for age and Florida ranks 23rd in deaths while NY ranks 7th.
https://www.bioinformaticscro.com/blog/states-ranked-by-age-adjusted-covid-deaths/
Also note that Florida now has the lowest death rate in the country so they will continue to improve in the ranking as we go through the winter.
Again, this includes 2020 where New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey were not following any social distancing mandates. And even then Florida is below average.
