Official Trade Thread XVIII: 1/20/12 - 5/14/12

[tontoz]

Anderson's per 36 numbers as a rookie in NJ were 13/8. I think it is a safe bet he is a better player now.

[Illuminaire]

Good points, Nate + CCJ.

Llcc, I don't see Ryan as a dominant force either. I see him as an above-average rebounder and a fantastic shooter who can help the team in two critical areas of need. And since he's a FA, we can potentially acquire him with just cap space.

I'd like to see us offer him a declining contract front-loaded at 15 million, then dropping down into the 6-7 million/year range when we hit the time to extend Wall.

We're not too different on Sullinger, except I don't think he'll be an above average post presence, efficiency wise. He does draw fouls at an exceptional rate in college, though, and IF he carries that to the pros he'll be just fine on the inside. There are cases where his body type has failed in the past though, so there are enough worries that I'd rather we end up with a Davis or MKG.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Two caveats on Ryan Anderson: First, his FG% is pretty low from inside. He is a catch-and-shoot player that won't be able to create a lot off the dribble. He needs separation and a clean look. When shooting midrange or inside, Anderson's lack of athleticism will make him look pretty routine. Second, Anderson is not a strong defender. He doesn't move his feet well laterally.

Just wanted to make sure I didn't hype Anderson so strongly that I neglect to cover his weaknesses. Similar to another great young, PF, Kevin Love, Ryan Anderson is limited athletically. I think he is sort of a bigger Antawn Jamison. Not as quick, but much more willing to give up his body at both ends. In comparing him to Jamison the complement is Ryan Anderson is a lethal shooter as a stretch four. He opens the court like Korver does. He's a capable 3rd or maybe 2nd scorer.

Just wanted to make sure to put it all out there on Anderson. I think he would need a shotblocker at C and a rangy defender at SF to help him out. If the Wizards keep McGee and Vesely/Singleton, that would be right to make Anderson have the best chance to succeed.

[Severn Hoos]

--Anderson is a strong, strong player. I would pick him over a guy like Zach Randolph simply because Anderson is only 23 now.

--Illuminaire, if there were no Thomas Robinson in this draft, I'd be pretty happy about the prospect of getting Sullinger.

Sullinger doesn't excite me like Kevin Love or DeJuan Blair did. I KNEW those guys would be dominant. Jared Sullinger does score very proficiently but he's not a beast. He's reminiscent of Mike Sweetney. Severn Hoos says I should get over being wrong about Sweetney. (I haven't totally. Sweetney was a big swing and a miss. His weight just blew up). I am going to assume the best with Sullinger--he will do like Barkley, DeJuan Blair, and Glen Davis, and keep his weight under control. With that in mind, I am encouraged that Sullinger can score as proficiently as Kevin Love. Jared can shoot with great and he's got great touch inside. He will draw a lot of fouls. I just wouldn't pick him before 5 or 6.

CCJ - to quote the great Telly Savalas, "Who loves ya, baby?"

I'm not saying you should get over being wrong about Sweetney, if only because I don't think you were wrong about Sweetney. My point is - Sullinger isn't Sweetney. And neither is he Love, or Zach Rondolph, or Al Jefferson, or anyone else. I happen to think that he has a maturity and love for the game that will help him avoid the Sweetney/May pitfalls, and that he has much more size, talent, and willingness to mix it up than a Big Baby type player.

Also agree with your caveats on Anderson. My previous comparison to Jamison (3-point shooting and defensive rebounding being exactly what Jamison brought) is to say that for him to be a top-flight big worthy of $10M+ per year, he better play some defense. And even if his defensive stats/scouting report looks good right now (don't know if it is or isn't), the fact that he has D12 to cover his back surely has a lot to do with it.

I actually think Anderson with McGee would be an awful defensive combination. He'll need another big who can body up and stop the opposing team's best big - a Howard, Bynum, Perkins, etc. - even a prime Haywood would be a far better fit. McGee & Anderson would give up career games nightly to the Boguts and D. Jordans of the world. Oh wait, we already do that...

But again, the good news is that FA starts after the draft. We get Davis at #1, no need to even think about Anderson. (Unless you project Davis as a C out of the gate and plan on letting McGee walk - which is not a bad idea, I guess...) If Robinson or Sullinger is the pick, where would he fit? In theory, he'd be a great fit next to Drummond (not that I want the team to go there). I guess time will tell....

[dobrojim]

Who paired with McGee would NOT be an awful defensive combination?

I'm more of the view that while Howard certainly helps RA, the reciprocal
is probably true as well.

RA rebounds well and shoots 3s well. What's not to like about a player
that can do those 2 things well? Those are 2 very important things to be
able to do.

[miller31time]

While Anderson seems (and probably is) the smart move in free agency, I have a really tough time making myself believe that he's in any way, shape or form worth the pain and misery we are currently going through.

It's like, after a season like this (and our previous seasons), you REALLY want some damn retribution.

And what do we get?

Ryan Anderson at 10mil per year.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMpXAknykeg[/youtube]

[nate33]

It's like, after a season like this (and our previous seasons), you REALLY want some damn retribution.

And what do we get?

Ryan Anderson at 10mil per year.

Hopefully, we get Ryan Anderson, Antonio Davis, plus a #9-12 pick obtained by trading McGee (plus possibly Vesely) at the trade deadline. We'd still have enough cap room to sign a few good swing men as well.

[fugop]

Anthony Davis.

[miller31time]

It's like, after a season like this (and our previous seasons), you REALLY want some damn retribution.

And what do we get?

Ryan Anderson at 10mil per year.

Hopefully, we get Ryan Anderson, Antonio Davis, plus a #9-12 pick obtained by trading McGee (plus possibly Vesely) at the trade deadline. We'd still have enough cap room to sign a few good swing men as well.

That's certainly our best-case scenario. More realistically, we end up with the 4th pick, take Thomas Robinson, overpay McGee over the off-season because "he's a big part of this team's plans" and amnesty Lewis. We then try to lure free agents but none of the good ones want to come here because, well, can you blame them? So we're stuck overpaying average role players while Ted plays the PR game and tries to "sell" these players to the D.C fanbase.

[tontoz]

Getting a pick in the 9-12 range for McGee would definitely be big. Quincy Miller might be available in that range. Getting Robinson and Miller in this draft would be a major score.

[Ruzious]

Anthony Davis.

Rik Smits?

[TGW]

I agree with Millertime...Ryan Anderson at 10 mil/per is just not a good idea. He's a solid player, but he plays on a team that light years ahead of us, and he plays a specific role that he would not play for us. In Orlando, he's asked to knock down open shots...that's strictly his responsibility. If he does a little more, it's just a cherry on top. On the Wizards, we'd be asking him to score on ISO situations, rebound, defend, and basically do everything a well-rounded bigman would do. You ask a guy like that to play out of his comfort zone, and he's going to struggle.

Unless he comes at a heavily discounted price, I'd pass.

[Nivek]

I agree with Millertime...Ryan Anderson at 10 mil/per is just not a good idea. He's a solid player, but he plays on a team that light years ahead of us, and he plays a specific role that he would not play for us. In Orlando, he's asked to knock down open shots...that's strictly his responsibility. If he does a little more, it's just a cherry on top. On the Wizards, we'd be asking him to score on ISO situations, rebound, defend, and basically do everything a well-rounded bigman would do. You ask a guy like that to play out of his comfort zone, and he's going to struggle.

Unless he comes at a heavily discounted price, I'd pass.

I wouldn't ask Anderson to play out of his comfort zone. I wouldn't want him to iso score. A guy who can actually make open shots would be a huge asset for the Wizards. At least it'd be someone the opposition would have to defend. I'm not saying that's worth $10 million per year -- I don't know where that number came from.

It's sorta like the Skins offense this season. They were doing next to nothing offensively until they dumped the slow-developing stretch hand-offs for those quick-hitting stretch tosses. It finally put something on film that opposing defenses had to worry about and the offense started clicking a bit. It wasn't a massive turnaround because they were still limited by the quarterback, line and receivers, but it was something.

I'd love to have Anderson with the Wizards -- at the right price. I've wanted him in Washington since that first season in Orlando. He's young and productive, and he does things no one else on the roster can do.

[Severn Hoos]

Who paired with McGee would NOT be an awful defensive combination?

Good point....

I'm more of the view that while Howard certainly helps RA, the reciprocal
is probably true as well.

RA rebounds well and shoots 3s well. What's not to like about a player
that can do those 2 things well? Those are 2 very important things to be
able to do.

I fear a typical message board dynamic coming on - the need to dig in, pile up the sandbags, and take a completely ridiculous position but defend it to the death because, well, there's not much else to talk about...

Let me start by restating - I think Ryan Anderson would be a fine addition. Given that we will have to overpay to attract FAs, I wouldn't even be upset about the thought of paying him $10M per year. I just think he's looking like the flavor of the month, and suspect that he would become a target of complaints - especially about defense - in much the same way that El Capitawn was.

In that vein, when it comes to defensive rebounding: for his 3 years with Orlando, Anderson's Defensive Rebounding Rate ranged from 15.0 to 18.2. With the Wiz, AJ ranged from a low of 19.0 to a high of 23.2. Is Anderson's relatively lower DRR a result of playing next to Dwight Howard? Undoubtedly. But is there any guarantee (or even indication) that Anderson could make it up to AJ's level in DRR? Will he be a monster on the boards?

I'm open to adding Anderson. But then, I thought AJ Was a good addition. I just suspect that we'd be looking at a similar contribution and impact. And if Antawn drove you crazy, then be prepared for the chance that you may get driven to Crazytown once again.

[llcc25]

Who paired with McGee would NOT be an awful defensive combination?

Good point....

I'm more of the view that while Howard certainly helps RA, the reciprocal
is probably true as well.

RA rebounds well and shoots 3s well. What's not to like about a player
that can do those 2 things well? Those are 2 very important things to be
able to do.

I fear a typical message board dynamic coming on - the need to dig in, pile up the sandbags, and take a completely ridiculous position but defend it to the death because, well, there's not much else to talk about...

Let me start by restating - I think Ryan Anderson would be a fine addition. Given that we will have to overpay to attract FAs, I wouldn't even be upset about the thought of paying him $10M per year. I just think he's looking like the flavor of the month, and suspect that he would become a target of complaints - especially about defense - in much the same way that El Capitawn was.

In that vein, when it comes to defensive rebounding: for his 3 years with Orlando, Anderson's Defensive Rebounding Rate ranged from 15.0 to 18.2. With the Wiz, AJ ranged from a low of 19.0 to a high of 23.2. Is Anderson's relatively lower DRR a result of playing next to Dwight Howard? Undoubtedly. But is there any guarantee (or even indication) that Anderson could make it up to AJ's level in DRR? Will he be a monster on the boards?

I'm open to adding Anderson. But then, I thought AJ Was a good addition. I just suspect that we'd be looking at a similar contribution and impact. And if Antawn drove you crazy, then be prepared for the chance that you may get driven to Crazytown once again.

AJ drove me crazy. HIs defense was like swiss cheese.

[Illuminaire]

I haven't watched Anderson enough to know his defensive tendencies. His numbers on 82-games look solid, in terms of on-off differential and counterpart PER. Average, certainly not Jamison bad.

He DOES play with Howard though, and that may be masking deficiencies we'd have to deal with here.

[TGW]

I agree with Millertime...Ryan Anderson at 10 mil/per is just not a good idea. He's a solid player, but he plays on a team that light years ahead of us, and he plays a specific role that he would not play for us. In Orlando, he's asked to knock down open shots...that's strictly his responsibility. If he does a little more, it's just a cherry on top. On the Wizards, we'd be asking him to score on ISO situations, rebound, defend, and basically do everything a well-rounded bigman would do. You ask a guy like that to play out of his comfort zone, and he's going to struggle.

Unless he comes at a heavily discounted price, I'd pass.

I wouldn't ask Anderson to play out of his comfort zone. I wouldn't want him to iso score. A guy who can actually make open shots would be a huge asset for the Wizards. At least it'd be someone the opposition would have to defend. I'm not saying that's worth $10 million per year -- I don't know where that number came from.

It's sorta like the Skins offense this season. They were doing next to nothing offensively until they dumped the slow-developing stretch hand-offs for those quick-hitting stretch tosses. It finally put something on film that opposing defenses had to worry about and the offense started clicking a bit. It wasn't a massive turnaround because they were still limited by the quarterback, line and receivers, but it was something.

I'd love to have Anderson with the Wizards -- at the right price. I've wanted him in Washington since that first season in Orlando. He's young and productive, and he does things no one else on the roster can do.

Don't get me wrong...I'd like Anderson here as well....at the right price. On a team devoid of good shooters, he'd be a welcome addition. I just don't think a bigman that brings little else but good shooting (and maybe decent rebounding) is worth a big payday.

[Ruzious]

I haven't watched Anderson enough to know his defensive tendencies. His numbers on 82-games look solid, in terms of on-off differential and counterpart PER. Average, certainly not Jamison bad.

He DOES play with Howard though, and that may be masking deficiencies we'd have to deal with here.

Well then, the solution's obvious. Just get Dwight Howard and Anthony Davis along with Anderson. See, it's not nucular surgery.

[tontoz]

This team isn't devoid of shooters. Nick is a career 38% shooter from 3 and is shooting 37% this year. One thing he can do is shoot. He never goes into a slump for long.

Too bad he can't score going to the rim, rebound....etc.

[mhd]

My latest:

Wiz trade McGee+Vessley+Turiaf for Childress+Frye+Phoenix pick (top 2 protected)
Suns trade Childress+Frye for Ariza+Vessley+Minny 2012 1st (from NO)
Hornets trade 2012 Minny 1st+Ariza for Turiaf+McGee

If Suns pick is top 2, Wiz get Minny pick and future Suns 1st. If not, Suns drop down to Minny pick.

Suns get a major upgrade from Childress to Ariza. Ariza's contract is also 1 year shorter. Vessley would do well as a run & gun young big.

Hornets get a much needed young center in McGee while shedding Ariza's contract for Turiaf.

Wiz get a pick in the likely 7-10 range (I think Minny ends up in the 12-16 range personally). Frye is also a good fit as a jump shooting big. Childress sucks, but he's a good guy and needs a change. Maybe he'll be productive here.

Wiz could potentially get Beal and Davis/Drummond.