Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[Knighthonor]

term

Porter good,
- Smart, takes nothing off the table, easy going and team first personality
- Can shoot, can score from mid range and finish inside in transition and on put backs
- Gets to the FT line
- Tremendous rebounder
- Good passer
- Excellent length, uses it well on defense, solid defensive potential
Porter bad,
- Upside isn't that exciting for a potential top five pick, isn't going to transform the franchise.
- Slow. Straight line speed is ordinary at best for an NBA SF, start and stop ability is lacking, change of direction is lacking.
- Lacks explosiveness, grounded player.
- Ball handling skills are ordinary, not the type to break down defenses or attack multiple defenders off the dribble

Zeller good,
- Legit 7 footer, solidifies long term position at C
- Tremendous feel for the game, super smart for a big man
- Gifted scorer, lots of skills, great feel for the ball, huge array of under the basket finishes
- Good athlete, good leaper, runs the floor extremely well
- Smart positional defender, gets lots of steals too, good PnR defender
- Extremely efficient, commands a lot of double teams and still finds ways to score
Bad,
- lacks strength, body is not NBA ready, gets shoved around by strong college bigs
- mediocre rebounder
- not consistently dominant, becomes a spectator/disappears for long stretches
- Length is limited, will never be a great shot blocker, low release point on his jumper and limited length are an issue

Shabazz good,
- Star mentality, tremendous motor and aggressiveness
- Good athlete, good first step and very strong for his position
- Good leaper that posterizes opponents frequently
- Good arm length for his height supposedly
- Versatile and natural scorer. Great instincts, diverse skills
- Decent slashing scorer
- Outstanding post up game for his age, good hook shot, scores well inside the lane
- Good bball IQ, efficient, aggressive while maintaining patience, passes out of doubles and doesn't take a ton of bad shots
- Excellent spot up shooter from everywhere on the court.
- Assertive in crunch time
Bad,
- Off hand is weak, lacks an array of advanced handles
- Poor passer, turns it over a lot
- Mediocre defender at best, doesn't make big plays, the worst defender of the four I mention
- Short for a SF at around 6'5 or 6'6, a tweener because of his height
- Mediocre rebounder for a SF, strictly a wing

To me the best scenario with draft and offseason...

Charlotte gets Noel #1 and he turns out to be another disappointing pick for MJ.

Wizards get Porter as eventual replacement for Ariza. With 2nd rounder, maybe moving up if needed, get a big such as Withey or Dieng... maybe Young, Muscala, Kelly as further possibilities.

Resign Webster ideally as backup SF/SG. Keep Price as well as add another vet G to the mix.

Hope everyone comes back healthy and improved next season, Nene especially, as well as Booker, Wall, etc.

My best scenario would be trading the pick for a good young vet big man probably. But I'm not getting my hopes up for that. Personally, I think Shabazz helps us more in the end than Porter. He's got future 20 PPG scorer written all over him and he can do it efficiently. So much of our problems come from a lack of scoring and we lose a lot of games where the offense stagnates in crunch time. Shabazz has such a valuable skill as a big time scorer.

I also like the mentality Shabazz would bring to the team. He's so hyper competitive and so confident. I think he would be a positive influence on Wall and Beal. I think Bazz would really push them. The three of them would have so much swagger and talent and explosive athleticism. Like the young guys in OKC. I like the idea of them growing up as a team together.

Can Shabazz play the SF on a troubling Wizards. And how bad really is his handle? I keep seeing bad talk about it. But they say he a good scorer. But can he shoot? I mean wizards need a shooting wing. Or else Wall's pass first, no shooting play making gets screwed up by teams that understand the weakness.

And when it comes to Ben, he looks like he has some serious skills. He could make a nice SF. What you believe?

Also for porter, what can he do? I seen a little of him. How well can he play the Wing and shoot.

Wizard seriously need a nice shooter who has driving skills of a CDL....
Need a Gil 2.0 in a Jamerson body.

Also what about a big. Need a nice offensive replacement to Nene when he goes down. Can't rely on him all the time like the game plan been so far.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So is Mike Tobey now a Lottery prospect?



(Sorry, Terps fans. I know how you feel. We've had a brutal year finishing games we should have won. Now go take out Duke in the tourney!)

I only watched a little bit of the game and wisely went to see a movie with my son.

I saw one play where Maryland made a dunk to go up 12 and Jamie Luckie called a technical on Pe'Shon Howard. Luckie is a bad ref and possibly a crooked one IMO.



Not that that had anything to do with the outcome, but I think the guy is shady. At best he's very biased but I think there could be more to it than that.

[stevemcqueen1]

Zeller was a beast. That was an incredible game. Zeller put Indiana on his back down the stretch and willed the team to a win. Good stuff.

I like him a good deal better than Burke and Oladipo. Both of those guys struggled offensively today. Burke had trouble with NBA size and athleticism and Oladipo was just forcing it and he couldn't find his range. I don't see him being a big scorer in the NBA, he's a future three and D player IMO.

I think Burke is a bit of a poor man's Kemba Walker.

[Knighthonor]

hey lets draft another euro guy.

lol just trolling ya...

[Ruzious]

Zeller was a beast. That was an incredible game. Zeller put Indiana on his back down the stretch and willed the team to a win. Good stuff.

I like him a good deal better than Burke and Oladipo. Both of those guys struggled offensively today. Burke had trouble with NBA size and athleticism and Oladipo was just forcing it and he couldn't find his range. I don't see him being a big scorer in the NBA, he's a future three and D player IMO.

I think Burke is a bit of a poor man's Kemba Walker.

Oladipo gave an epic defensive performance - hounding Burke every second that Indy was on defense. Burke isn't going to get defensed like that in the NBA - and he's most likely not going to be covered by anyone as big and strong as Oladipo - with the possible exception of Marcus Smart. Under the circumstances, those were outstanding performances by both Oladipo and Burke. Even Burke's miss at the end was a good play by him, because he drew 3 people to him - opening up an easy put-back attempt. It just happened that the put-back rolled and rolled till it fell outside of the rim. As far as willing their team to victory, Oladipo did that every bit as much as Zeller.

[nate33]

Yeah, I thought all three guys played very well. Burke had just 3 points in the first half and finished with 20. Indiana devoted all of their defensive attention to stopping Burke; they weren't even guarding the other players. It looked more like a box-and-1 than man-to-man defense. You can't do that in the NBA because everyone can shoot it too well. The fact that Burke still scored 17 second-half points only shows me that he'll do just fine at the NBA. I think his impact in the NBA will be somewhere between Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker.

Oladipo's defense was fantastic but I do agree that his lack of offensive creation is a bit of a concern. He's looking more and more like the next Tony Allen. There's nothing wrong with Tony Allen, but you don't take him with a top 5 pick.

[stevemcqueen1]

Zeller was a beast. That was an incredible game. Zeller put Indiana on his back down the stretch and willed the team to a win. Good stuff.

I like him a good deal better than Burke and Oladipo. Both of those guys struggled offensively today. Burke had trouble with NBA size and athleticism and Oladipo was just forcing it and he couldn't find his range. I don't see him being a big scorer in the NBA, he's a future three and D player IMO.

I think Burke is a bit of a poor man's Kemba Walker.

Oladipo gave an epic defensive performance - hounding Burke every second that Indy was on defense. Burke isn't going to get defensed like that in the NBA - and he's most likely not going to be covered by anyone as big and strong as Oladipo - with the possible exception of Marcus Smart. Under the circumstances, those were outstanding performances by both Oladipo and Burke. Even Burke's miss at the end was a good play by him, because he drew 3 people to him - opening up an easy put-back attempt. It just happened that the put-back rolled and rolled till it fell outside of the rim. As far as willing their team to victory, Oladipo did that every bit as much as Zeller.

I thought Oladipo did a great job defensively and on the boards. But he had nowhere near the impact Zeller did offensively IMO. He shot poorly on the whole. Zeller went off down the stretch to bring the team back and Zeller also made the key defensive play, picking up Burke on that drive and forcing him to take a bad shot.

Burke was flat out gunning yesterday. And Oladipo wasn't the only one who checked him well. Ferrell and even Watford switched onto him and frustrated him and forced him into settling for a bunch of threes. At least he was feeling his three ball, or else he would have had an awful day.

[Ruzious]

Steve, I agree with most of your observations - but not with your conclusions. Indiana's defense was CLEARLY designed to stop Burke. Under those circumstances, he played very well. This reminds me of Harden's last few games in college. Teams adjusted their defenses to stop him. Then, when he couldn't carry his team to victories and put up pedestrian numbers, people used that as a reason to say he's not a big-time player. I think some of those people were continuing to do that until well into this season - when it became virtually impossible not to see the obvious.

[jmrosenth]

Victor O covering Burke for those that want to watch.

Indiana had definitely oriented their defense towards stopping Burke. They're containing him on every screen and practically abandoning the weakside offensive player to make sure Burke doesn't get any daylight. It really worked in the first half. Burke seems to have figured it out in the second half and has become much more patient. He is keeping his dribble alive and hitting teammates for wide open looks.

What a battle. Victor O just hounding him on defense and grabbing 13 rebounds so far along the way. We are talking Victor at 6-5 215 guarding Burke at at 6-0 190.

Burke battling back and putting up 20 pts so far on 5-8 from 3.

Great game.

I still don't see how Zellers game translates to the NBA. He has put up his pts mind you, but I don't see any way the ugly garbage he throw up goes in at the NBA level. I'm still struggling to figure out how they go in at the college level.

He doesn't "look" like an NBA baller is likely why someone is going to get a steal this June. I mean, 25 and 10, last 6 points of the game when Indiana was down 5 with 39 seconds to go - to clinch the B1G title on the road against a top 10 team. No, his game isn't pretty or conventional, but he can create his own shot, has a developing jumper, and is very athletic for a 7 footer. He is way more skilled than most big men are at his age. He's not going to play defense like Nerlen Noels or Anthony Davis, but he's better than both of them offensively. Noels by an Indiana country mile.

[stevemcqueen1]

Steve, I agree with most of your observations - but not with your conclusions. Indiana's defense was CLEARLY designed to stop Burke. Under those circumstances, he played very well. This reminds me of Harden's last few games in college. Teams adjusted their defenses to stop him. Then, when he couldn't carry his team to victories and put up pedestrian numbers, people used that as a reason to say he's not a big-time player. I think some of those people were continuing to do that until well into this season - when it became virtually impossible not to see the obvious.

Yeah they game planned to stop Burke no doubt. And I definitely don't think one or two games should be the book on any player. But I see that game as a demonstration of the overall criticisms I have when I seek to define Burke. He's a scoring PG that has some issues with decision making and will stagnate the Michigan offense by trying to do it all and force it when opponents get them off their game like Indiana did. I see some physical limitations in his size. He's a little PG like Kemba Walker and I think there are parallels between the two. But Kemba was a better scorer when he came out and Kemba is also lightning quick, quick enough to go top ten. Burke is quick and has great handles but not as quick or shifty as Kemba. 2011 and 2013 are similarly weak classes, but I don't think Burke will get drafted as high as Kemba.

Opponents have been game planning against Zeller for most of his career but you see him remain an effective and efficient scorer. That's the difference in their NBA potential as scorers IMO.

And regarding Dipo, I think he lacks the kind of offensive creativity to be a go to scorer for a team like Zeller or even Burke could be. I think it'll be fairly easy to take away the things he does really well offensively in the NBA and he's not going to have the versatility to cope night in and night out. He's going to settle into a complimentary role as a third option on offense like a 3 and D player IMO. His biggest source of NBA value is his perimeter defense and his ability to run the floor, which look spectacular.

[stevemcqueen1]

He doesn't "look" like an NBA baller is likely why someone is going to get a steal this June. I mean, 25 and 10, last 6 points of the game when Indiana was down 5 with 39 seconds to go - to clinch the B1G title on the road against a top 10 team. No, his game isn't pretty or conventional, but he can create his own shot, has a developing jumper, and is very athletic for a 7 footer. He is way more skilled than most big men are at his age. He's not going to play defense like Nerlen Noels or Anthony Davis, but he's better than both of them offensively. Noels by an Indiana country mile.

I agree. I think Zeller's game will definitely translate because of how skilled it is. He has got a tremendous IQ and skill level and feel for the game. He's a 20 year old 7 footer. You almost never see that level of feel on a big with NBA size who is that young.

You're right about his developing jumper. You already see the improvement within the span of just this season. He's a very good FT shooter too. I think the mid range game is going to be a big weapon for him down the line.

He's also got some handles, nothing spectacular, but he can drive effectively for his size and he's got a little wiggle to him.

His comfort level around the basket is outstanding too. He finds all kinds of space to operate along the baseline and beneath the rim because he's so agile for his size. He doesn't need a lot of room to change directions and can contort his body to put up a shot. He's a really good finisher too. Not like some guys who only dunk the ball. He has diverse below the rim finishes with either hand, very good feel for the ball and how to make it go in.

I think he's going to be a very solid defender too. You're right that he'll never be Noel or Davis, definitely doesn't have their shot blocking ability. But he does play good D. And watching him switch on Burke and stay with him laterally on that last shot of the game was impressive. He's very quick and fluid. He's already a good PnR defender with excellent hedge and recover speed. And he's got good hands, picks up a lot of steals poking the ball out or stripping it or picking off entry passes so he does make big plays on that side.

My main concerns about him are strength level and rebounding and his tendency to disappear for stretches. His rebounding is mediocre for a big time C prospect. His strength level is clearly underdeveloped and it's led to him struggling against the really powerful and athletic bigs. And he gets into foul trouble or gets passive, tends to do a lot of his scoring in bunches in between periods of basically just setting screens and guarding the paint. Sometimes you'd like to see him be more assertive and take over that star player role, demand the ball from his guards because they aren't as good as him. I'd like to see more plays where he get the ball in the post early in the shot clock and then he gets to facilitate the offense for his teammates and pick up assists. Do some playmaking in a traditional big man role.

[Ruzious]

Sorry to keep disagreeing Steve, but Kemba and Burke are completely different types of players. Walker is a run and gun force the action type PG, while Burke is a control the tempo - get in the offense type PG who runs very well when the opportunities present themselves. It's like Nate Archibald style vs Chris Paul style - as the classic examples. And you can see the difference in their stats.

As a junior, Walker had a TS% of 54, and eFG of 48 (ouch), and assist/to per 40 minutes of 4.8/2.4. And he led his team to a championship. Burke as a sophomore has a TS% of 60, and eFG of 56, and A/TO per 40 of 8.1/2.1. 8.1/2.1 is so much better than almost every college PG, and yet people still label him as a guy who should pass more.

But I do still agree with you on Zeller - except on the occasions when you call him an above the rim player. He has the same type of feel for the game and spacing that Nene has - and at both ends of the floor. And I can see him being equally effective as a PF in the NBA - as he proves and improves his shooting range. It wouldn't surprise me if he eventually develops 3 point shooting range - if he's used more at the PF.

[jmrosenth]

I like the Nene comp for Zeller. I don't think Zeller will be an all-star type player, but I could see him being a 15-8/9 guy for a long time, hopefully w/out Nene's injury history.

I'll say it - I do wonder given Zeller's pedigree and skill-set if we'd be talking about him as a no-brainer first overall pick in this draft if his skin color was different.

[nuposse04]

If Bargs can be drafted #1 overall, I don't think being White is holding Zeller's draft stock down. It is his supposed physical limitations, but if he measures out better, I could see him going #2 overall. He did a good job of imposing his will on Michigan, but then you also need to keep in mind Michigan isn't exactly oozing front line prospects for the next level. I was still surprised that he managed to score that many points in a row, so he gets kudos there I suppose.

Production wise, a Nene/Zeller comparison seems reasonable. I don't see a similar style of game though. Nene is stronger, bigger and at least prime Nene was fairly athletic. I see a Greg Monroe type of game for Zeller at the next level, sans the jumpshot, which I think will get better...I think he could be a poor man's David Lee.

[jmrosenth]

I should have said "if he wasn't a white American" whether we'd be talking about him as the no-brainer number one overall.

[nate33]

I like the Monroe comparison too. I don't think Zeller will ever be the defender that Nene is. Nene has inhumanly quick feet for a guy his size.

[Severn Hoos]

I should have said "if he wasn't a white American" whether we'd be talking about him as the no-brainer number one overall.

Wasn't the last White American to be drafted #1 overall also a Hoosier?

[pancakes3]

I like the Nene comp for Zeller. I don't think Zeller will be an all-star type player, but I could see him being a 15-8/9 guy for a long time, hopefully w/out Nene's injury history.

I'll say it - I do wonder given Zeller's pedigree and skill-set if we'd be talking about him as a no-brainer first overall pick in this draft if his skin color was different.

Well... would 3 added inches have boosted Sullinger up 20 draft spots?

[nate33]

I should have said "if he wasn't a white American" whether we'd be talking about him as the no-brainer number one overall.

Wasn't the last White American to be drafted #1 overall also a Hoosier?

Man, that was a looooong time ago. Kent Benson in 1977. He was a bust.

Let's be honest, avoiding white Americans has been a pretty good draft strategy over the past 2 decades. Here's a list of the white Americans drafted in the top 10 in the past 20 years:

1993 - Shawn Bradley (#2), Bobby Hurley (#7)
1994 - Eric Montross (#9)
1995 - Bryant Reeves (#5)
1997 - Keith Van Horn (#2)
1998 - Raef LaFrentz (#3), Jason Williams (#7)
1999 - Wally Szczerbiak (#6)
2000 - Mike Miller (#5), Chris Mihm (#7), Joel Pryzbilla (#9)
2002 - Mike Dunleavy (#3)
2003 - Chris Kaman (#6), Kirk Hinrich (#7)
2004 - Luke Jackson (#10)
2007 - Joakim Noah (#9), Spencer Hawes (#10)
2008 - Kevin Love (#5), Joe Alexander (#8), Brook Lopez (#10)
2010 - Gordon Hayward (#9)
2011 - Jimmer Fredette (#10)

Not an impressive list. There were 22 white Americans drafted.
8 were busts (Bradley, Hurley, Reeves, Van Horn, LaFrentz, Mihm, Jackson, Alexander)
6 were disappointments (Montross, J.Williams, Szczerbiak, Pryzbilla, Dunleavy, Fredette)
5 lived up to expectations (Miller, Kaman, Hinrich, Hawes, Hayward)
and 3 surprised to the upside (Noah, Love, Lopez)

The good news is that in the past few years, they seem to have gotten it right. Since 2005, there's only 1 flat out bust in Alexander, and 3 upside surprises.

[jmrosenth]

I could quibble with some of the categories you put them in, but that's a good list. Joakim Noah isn't white, and he even has some French in him, so he should doubly not be on the list. You also missed the immortal Adam Morrison.

Forgot all about Joe Alexander, wow. I think many draft dorks loved him coming out of WV.