Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

[tontoz]

Strange that Len's height/reach wasn't measured.

Probably because he was in a cast or boot or something.

Wasn't it just a stress fracture? I didn't know that a boot was needed for that.

[Zonkerbl]

Has CJJ weighed in on who might be this year's Faried?

[Dark Faze]

Setting aside EG's record, the 8th pick in a weak draft isn't a bad spot to take a chance on a project big man.

Strange that Len's height/reach wasn't measured.

This sort of mentality is what made us waste the entire 2011 draft though.

[tontoz]

Setting aside EG's record, the 8th pick in a weak draft isn't a bad spot to take a chance on a project big man.

Strange that Len's height/reach wasn't measured.

This sort of mentality is what made us waste the entire 2011 draft though.

No, it was EG's inability to evaluate talent that blew the 2011 draft. It was well known that Vesely was weak and couldn't shoot or rebound. He had already been a pro for several years before the draft.

EG could have had Faried instead of Singleton and that has nothing to do with project big men. Singleton was a lousy offensive player in college. Not surprising that he is a self check in the pros.

[fishercob]

I can't believe I'm about to say this, but Rudy Gobert seems like a plausible target at #8 right now. Crazy length. Still young. Blocked a ton of shots and made a ton of steals in the Euroleagues. Looks good against NBA-caliber competition in the combines. He's got a ridiculous 2P% and even shoots 70% from the FT line. He fits a long term need. Why not?

He obviously won't play much at first due to his lack of strength, but he can play behind Okafor in his first year. Hopefully, the following year, he'll be big enough to hold his own against most bigs, and Nene can always step in and guard the burlier low post guys.

I still like McCollum a lot. He's got plenty of bulk to him and should hold up well under the NBA grind. His standing reach is somewhat lackluster, but his wingspan is solid. At guard, I think wingspan is more important because guards need to challenge the dribble and reach into the passing lanes more so than they have to block shots.

Steven Adams is a freak. 7-4 wingspan. 257 pounds with no body fat. I'd consider him at #8 except that I worry about his hands. He seems to fumble a lot of balls in games.

I have no interest in Olynyk at all. He's going to be a defensive liability and you can't have that with your starting big man. You just can't.

Gobert probably has to add about 20 pounds, the question is do we have the patience for that? Do we have the patience to wait on yet another big and cross your fingers that he develops. The combine and personal workouts scare the **** out of me if only because it seems to take a higher priority than game tape.

It's not the combine itself so much that scares me; it's the Javale Mcgee experience. There are always guys with other-worldly measurements in the draft -- Pavel Podkolzine, Martynas Andriuskevicius, Biyombo, etc. Can they play? Do they love to work? That's what determines if Gobert is the next Tyson Chandler or the next star of Shaqtin a Fool.

The good news is that the Wizards (a) have the scars of the recent Javale experience to avoid just drafting a specimen and crossing their fingers (b) should have good data on Gobert -- lots of game tape, interviews, better stats etc., that internet enthusiasts don't have access to.

No matter who the Wizards pick it will be hard to feel confident given the nature of this draft and who is making the decisions, but if we take Gobert I think it will be for the right reasons.

[tontoz]

Wow Noel weighed only 206. That is only a few pounds more than Wall/Beal.

[REDardWIZskin]

I don't get the love that Olynik is getting around here. Dude could be an option as a stretch 4 but he doesn't rebound and isn't strong enough at 235 to bang like we have seen from Z bo and Gasol. He played in a weak conference, doesn't protect the rim and seemed rattled in the tourney by physical play. IMO picking him over Zeller, or Len would be a huge mistake.

[Dark Faze]

How was he rattled in the tourney? He put up good numbers.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I can't believe I'm about to say this, but Rudy Gobert seems like a plausible target at #8 right now. Crazy length. Still young. Blocked a ton of shots and made a ton of steals in the Euroleagues. Looks good against NBA-caliber competition in the combines. He's got a ridiculous 2P% and even shoots 70% from the FT line. He fits a long term need. Why not?

He obviously won't play much at first due to his lack of strength, but he can play behind Okafor in his first year. Hopefully, the following year, he'll be big enough to hold his own against most bigs, and Nene can always step in and guard the burlier low post guys.

I still like McCollum a lot. He's got plenty of bulk to him and should hold up well under the NBA grind. His standing reach is somewhat lackluster, but his wingspan is solid. At guard, I think wingspan is more important because guards need to challenge the dribble and reach into the passing lanes more so than they have to block shots.

Steven Adams is a freak. 7-4 wingspan. 257 pounds with no body fat. I'd consider him at #8 except that I worry about his hands. He seems to fumble a lot of balls in games.

I have no interest in Olynyk at all. He's going to be a defensive liability and you can't have that with your starting big man. You just can't.

Gobert probably has to add about 20 pounds, the question is do we have the patience for that? Do we have the patience to wait on yet another big and cross your fingers that he develops. The combine and personal workouts scare the **** out of me if only because it seems to take a higher priority than game tape.

Mark Schlereth of ESPN calls the NFL combine the "Underwear Olympics". I agree with him on that and the NBA combine. Physical attributes that mean virtually NOTHING if a guy can't play become tremendously overvalued.

Combines are the reason guys like Faried slip in the draft and tall people with long arm who can leap well, like Jan Vesely, get drafted in the lottery.

I trust performance over time vs good competition much more than freak show data.

[fishercob]

I can't believe I'm about to say this, but Rudy Gobert seems like a plausible target at #8 right now. Crazy length. Still young. Blocked a ton of shots and made a ton of steals in the Euroleagues. Looks good against NBA-caliber competition in the combines. He's got a ridiculous 2P% and even shoots 70% from the FT line. He fits a long term need. Why not?

He obviously won't play much at first due to his lack of strength, but he can play behind Okafor in his first year. Hopefully, the following year, he'll be big enough to hold his own against most bigs, and Nene can always step in and guard the burlier low post guys.

I still like McCollum a lot. He's got plenty of bulk to him and should hold up well under the NBA grind. His standing reach is somewhat lackluster, but his wingspan is solid. At guard, I think wingspan is more important because guards need to challenge the dribble and reach into the passing lanes more so than they have to block shots.

Steven Adams is a freak. 7-4 wingspan. 257 pounds with no body fat. I'd consider him at #8 except that I worry about his hands. He seems to fumble a lot of balls in games.

I have no interest in Olynyk at all. He's going to be a defensive liability and you can't have that with your starting big man. You just can't.

Gobert probably has to add about 20 pounds, the question is do we have the patience for that? Do we have the patience to wait on yet another big and cross your fingers that he develops. The combine and personal workouts scare the **** out of me if only because it seems to take a higher priority than game tape.

Mark Schlereth of ESPN calls the NFL combine the "Underwear Olympics". I agree with him on that and the NBA combine. Physical attributes that mean virtually NOTHING if a guy can't play become tremendously overvalued.

Combines are the reason guys like Faried slip in the draft and tall people with long arm who can leap well, like Jan Vesely, get drafted in the lottery.

I trust performance over time vs good competition much more than freak show data.

It's not an either-or situation, CCJ. I think ignoring any set of data will get you into trouble when evaluating players.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't get the love that Olynik is getting around here. Dude could be an option as a stretch 4 but he doesn't rebound and isn't strong enough at 235 to bang like we have seen from Z bo and Gasol. He played in a weak conference, doesn't protect the rim and seemed rattled in the tourney by physical play. IMO picking him over Zeller, or Len would be a huge mistake.

His advanced stats and the fact Gonzaga spent weeks rated #1 sway me to consider his ability. Pau Gasol wasn't strong when he won ROTY. He weighed less than Olynyk does now.

I do agree he should be picked after Len, and I think Zeller will be a better transition scorer than Olynyk.

[REDardWIZskin]

I agree with Nate, although I think the proper question is not whether the player has potential or if he is worth risk but, Is our current front office/coaching staff situation ideal for a multi-year developmental project. Ves is not good example because he just sucks. Regardless of what you think of the wiz org's ability to develop players or not. There is a good possibility that we could have an entirely new front office and coaching staff next off-season. which could complicate things even more. In my mind that increases the risk a bit more. IMO we need more stability before I'll feel more comfortable taking more risks/upside picks on draft day that have long term implications that could continue to cripple us once the current regime is gone.

[REDardWIZskin]

I don't get the love that Olynik is getting around here. Dude could be an option as a stretch 4 but he doesn't rebound and isn't strong enough at 235 to bang like we have seen from Z bo and Gasol. He played in a weak conference, doesn't protect the rim and seemed rattled in the tourney by physical play. IMO picking him over Zeller, or Len would be a huge mistake.

His advanced stats and the fact Gonzaga spent weeks rated #1 sway me to consider his ability. Pau Gasol wasn't strong when he won ROTY. He weighed less than Olynyk does now.

I do agree he should be picked after Len, and I think Zeller will be a better transition scorer than Olynyk.

Thanks for the input, I understand why many would like a player with Polish, after we have drafted so many players with raw skill. I MIGHT like KO maybe if he were more of a defensive presence... He just screams Spencer Hawes to me rather than Ryan Anderson. Which I think many of you are envisioning for his potential. Not that Anderson is much of a defender either but he's a much more fluid athlete and IS solid on the glass

[Upper Decker]

Wow Noel weighed only 206. That is only a few pounds more than Wall/Beal.

This actually scares the heck out of me. Fishercob brought this up a week ago in great detail (when we thought Noel was 220), and I'll ask it again because I wasn't satisfied with the responses, but why is Noel the absolute lock for #1? At 206 Noel weighs 30-40 pounds less than many of the top SF's in the league. At 206 he'll get pummeled on the block by most PF's. At 206 he's incapable of playing CE. Can you imagine him trying to body up against Howard, Gasol, Vucivic, Pekovic?

Since he's coming off an ACL he won't be able to effectively add weight to his frame for at least another 6 months (indications are that he should avoid weight gain to avoid complicating his recovery). As it stands his rookie year is a complete red-shirt year anyways because his recovery. Then in his second year he may be able to jump his weight to 220? That won't render him completely useless, but he'd still be at a significant disadvantage, so realistically we're looking at year 3 before he becomes an impact. For instance, Jan is 240 and isn't even a threat to guard people down low. He get's tossed like a rag doll.

Is Noel's potential promising enough to basically sit on him for 2 seasons before he get's his body in condition to compete? Honestly, his defensive potential is immense, but is it any more promising than Gobert? In addition, I don't get the feeling Noel will develop into a go to player in any capacity. What am I missing here?

[fishercob]

Yep.

[Upper Decker]

I don't get the love that Olynik is getting around here. Dude could be an option as a stretch 4 but he doesn't rebound and isn't strong enough at 235 to bang like we have seen from Z bo and Gasol. He played in a weak conference, doesn't protect the rim and seemed rattled in the tourney by physical play. IMO picking him over Zeller, or Len would be a huge mistake.

His advanced stats and the fact Gonzaga spent weeks rated #1 sway me to consider his ability. Pau Gasol wasn't strong when he won ROTY. He weighed less than Olynyk does now.

I do agree he should be picked after Len, and I think Zeller will be a better transition scorer than Olynyk.

I think the difference between Olynyk and Gasol is that Gasol has much better length than Olynyk. Even though Gasol started out weak, he always had defensive potential because he arms nearly drag on the ground when he's walking. Olynyk's short wing span will make him a bench player in the NBA. There's nothing wrong with that, but at 8 there will be better options.

[FAH1223]

Gobert with a hook shot is a scary sight.

[Dark Faze]

I don't see the huge deal with Length for 7 footers. He's going to be able to contest almost everyone he faces at that height.

And virtually every player we could consider selecting is a non-starter at least as of year 1. Porter is the only one with big time potential to crack the starting lineup and we're not going getting him. Len, Olynyk, Shabazz, all of them would have to work their way into it.

[hands11]

Dieng really never looked 245 pounds in the video I saw - him being 229 would explain that.

Porter is 197!?! He's gone early and it doesn't affect his impact long term, but that suggests he'll need at least a year or two to adjust. The Cavs get him either outright at their slot or by using their bevy of picks to trade up a little.

Porter and Dieng may need to put on weight, but I think their reach measurements will help a lot more than concerns about low weight will hurt.

I think C.J. McCollum may slip. His reach is average for a PG.

With such a poor reach, I think Larkin will likely be a second rounder. Not sure I would like him with the Wizards second even if he was a good "value" pick. That combined with his lackluster Freshman year seems enough reason to pass for me. I would rather use the later 2nd on someone like Seth Curry.

How much does reach really matter for a back up PG or SG 6th man type ? I don't think those roles really demand reach as a top priority. Production, handles, passing, rebounding outside their area, IQ/personality, shooting, team and man defense, etc are more important.

Example. You pick Pierre Jackson because he can ball. Not for his reach. Same with Burke.

CJM has skills. He has a great crossover. He can shoot. He has handles. He drives. He grabs rebounds and play D. He needs to get better on P&R PG skills but that can be learned. Not a big deal. He is a decent passer already. Just needs more experience running the P&R. But his main skills are as a back up SG that can play some like a PG, not a PG with SG skills. For some reason Jason Terry comes to mind. Not sure if that is a good comp or not.

I don't see where his measurements down grade him at all for what I think he best role would be. Specially for a team like the Wizards who have a big PG in Wall and Temple who is tall in a role playing 1-2-3 defender. Plus Beal is a good defender and still growing. Sounds like he will be a solid 6-5 or 6-6 with no neck before its all said an done.

McLemore is the one I think might drop some. He is projected as a starter and he is only an inch taller and 1.5" better reach. And he doesn't have the handles that CJM has. And he doesn't seems to have nearly the personality of a CJM, Otto, or Burke. McLemore comes across a lot more shy, unsure and not as smart.

Personality, smarter, what between the ears matters a lot in my book. Its what separates a Beal from a JR Smith

[pancakes3]

Noel looked pretty skinny in his rehab interview video on espn. No thighs whatsoever.

Gobert looked pretty damn skinny too in his "highlight" reel. Lots of dunks, which are nice but very little in the terms of post ups, post moves, and clean finishes. However if 4.4% body fat results in already a 240lb frame he can fill out nicely like McGee has. McGee has all the tools to be a great defensive C. The problem is in his head. If Gobert physically mirrors McGee, that should be reason enough draft him for most teams.

I can't get over Steve Adams's size. Monstrous. The only downside is his reach. 9'1 compared to Dieng's 9'3 and Gobert's 9' freakin 7.

I think the measurements should solidified our collective 2nd round endorsement of Eric Murphy. 6'10 in shoes, 240lbs, and a 9 foot reach. Ultra-skilled and a dead-eye shooter. He has adequate rebounding numbers and UF's track record with white guy forwards as of late has been just unbelievable. Billy Donovan knows his recruiting.