Rui Hachimura 2.0

[nate33]

Rui had a tough shooting night from 3. He's not going to shoot 50% from 3 forever. As that number comes down, he'll need to do other stuff to stay on the court. Whether it's shoot better from closer in, rebound more, pass more, defend better, whatever.

He's far from a bust for a #9 pick, which is great. But he needs to do more to establish himself as a starter.

I didn't watch the game, but I like Rui's box score even more than his box score on some of his better nights.

Rui shot 0/5 from 3. Shooting is going to come and go. But other than that, he was 6/10 from 2-point range, had 7 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals and 0 turnovers in 27 minutes. That's a better job than usual of stuffing the box score. If he had merely shot a respectable 2/5 from 3-point range, that would have been a very nice outing.

[Dark Faze]

A more interesting question in my mind is what people would be willing to pay for say, 16, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, .8spg.

On good efficiency and above average defense? What's the going rate for that? With a bonus for "potential", but not overly confident about reaching an all-star level.

[pcbothwel]

A more interesting question in my mind is what people would be willing to pay for say, 16, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, .8spg.

On good efficiency and above average defense? What's the going rate for that? With a bonus for "potential", but not overly confident about reaching an all-star level.

Say what you will about Kuz, but there isnt a legit argument to say Rui is much better at this point. Kuz signed a 2+1 deal @ 13M/yr. I think that about what Rui is worth with increases based on the increased cap.
So 3/50M with PO in year 3...

[NatP4]

A more interesting question in my mind is what people would be willing to pay for say, 16, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, .8spg.

On good efficiency and above average defense? What's the going rate for that? With a bonus for "potential", but not overly confident about reaching an all-star level.

Well below average defense

[prime1time]

Always amazing how this thread gets busy when Rui has a bad game.

[prime1time]

Let's talk about 3-point shooting for a second. Obsessing about whether or not a player makes his 3's in one game is bizarre to me. From a team-building perspective, the question is can the player make open 3's consistently or not. If the answer is no, then teams will sag off, and help on other players that are effective scorers. Rui doesn't need to shoot 50%+ from 3. The question is, can his presence keep defenses honest enough to where his presence spaces the floor for other players. If Rui's 3-point percentage starts to drop because teams are now making it a point to stick close to him at the 3-point line and not give him wide-open looks, then that's a win for us. Because now it makes the game easier for our other players.

I've been saying this for a while now. The goal isn't for Rui to shoot 50%+ from 3 or even 40%+ from 3. It is to have defenses know that if you leave him open at the three-point line to stop Porzingis or to stop Beal, he can make you pay. Rui needs to be able to make open 3's point-blank. If he can't there's not really a place for him in the NBA. If he can, then he can be a key component of any team.

[prime1time]

A more interesting question in my mind is what people would be willing to pay for say, 16, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, .8spg.

On good efficiency and above average defense? What's the going rate for that? With a bonus for "potential", but not overly confident about reaching an all-star level.

Well below average defense

LOL, "Well below average defense". This is always funny to me. Lets break this down for a second. What does it mean that a player is a well-below-average defender? There are players in the NBA that teams literally hide defensively. Bryn Forbes. Davis Bertans. Seth Curry. Trae Young. Where do they rank as defenders? In addition, how much is defense is fixed? Meaning, if Rui went to team A that was a cahmpionship contender with good leadership. Would his defense improve or not? I watched Nick Young play terrible defense for years as a Wizard. Then I watched the same Nick Young on a good team, slide his feet, stay in front of his man and actually be committed to playing defense.

The big myth that Wizards love to push is that player A and player B and player C are bad defenders. When in actuality, our team simply doesn't care about playing defense. And when the same "well below-average defender goes to a team with a good culture they can actually play good defense. Rui is a good enough defender to the point where we don't have to hide him defensively. To the degree that he can score efficiently and knock down open 3's, he's a clear positive value.

[Dark Faze]

A more interesting question in my mind is what people would be willing to pay for say, 16, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, .8spg.

On good efficiency and above average defense? What's the going rate for that? With a bonus for "potential", but not overly confident about reaching an all-star level.

Well below average defense

I've never been impressed by the eye test. I like him around the paint area, but have no confidence with him on the perimeter. However the Wiz have been miserable to watch so I have been a casual viewer the last year or so. Seemed like the common saying around here was that he was good defensively these days, so I went with that.

A more interesting question in my mind is what people would be willing to pay for say, 16, 5.5 rpg, 1.5 apg, .8spg.

On good efficiency and above average defense? What's the going rate for that? With a bonus for "potential", but not overly confident about reaching an all-star level.

Say what you will about Kuz, but there isnt a legit argument to say Rui is much better at this point. Kuz signed a 2+1 deal @ 13M/yr. I think that about what Rui is worth with increases based on the increased cap.
So 3/50M with PO in year 3...

Just thinking back to that time, I'd say they have similar value, but 13 sounds low to me, to the point where I'm surprised Kuz signed that contract.

[prime1time]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=Bllen
Even in his supposed "bad" games everything I said still holds true. Rui in the post vs. smaller guards is a mismatch that other teams have to help on. 58 seconds - Rui in the post, Denver helps off of Kispert. Rui finds him with the pass and Kispert knocks down the open look. Just as important though is to freeze the frame at 57 seconds. Look at where all the Nuggets defenders are. Look where the eyes are focused on. Name one other player not Bradley Beal that commands that kind of attention at any time on offense?

1:05 left, once again the same scenario. Rui in the post vs. Rivers. This time no help, Rui gets the easy dunk. 1:16, bad close out by the Nuggets defender who knows Rui can shoot. Rui takes advantage of him being off balance and gets a great look near the hoop. This is good offense. Far better than Ish Smith or Raul Neto jacking late jumpers in the shot clock. Or Davis Bertans shooting contested 3's. In addition, for all the complaints about his rebounding, Rui grabbed 7 rebounds in 27 minutes. Which is very respectable.

At the end of the day, Rui will always be an awkward fit on the Wizards, because we don't have a #1 option and he isn't that. Rui imo is a 6th man off the bench on an elite team that has a #1 scoring option. To the degree that he can sustain his 3-point shooting and space the floor for said #1 option, he's a solid #3 option for a championship team. There are so few players in the NBA that are capable of having an efficient offense run through for any amount of time, that the fact that Hachimura can do this outweighs any negative aspect of Hachimura's game. Rui's ideal fit is for a team that struggles to score once their #1 option goes to the bench. For that team, the problem that Rui solves far outweighs any negative aspect to his game. Whether it be his rebounding, his well-below-average defense or anything else.

Even if we do extend Hachimura, this tension will persist until either he leaves the team or we find a #1 option. Hopefully, Rui can find his way to an actual well-run organization. Like the Bucks, Warriors, Suns, Mavs or Nets. I

[WallToWall]

Read on Twitter

?s=21
Rui is capable of shooting like this. We need to give him the ball where he can do damage.

He is a work in progress on D.

[smoothSeph]

Read on Twitter

?s=21
Rui is capable of shooting like this. We need to give him the ball where he can do damage.

He is a work in progress on D.

I remember someone in this thread telling me all he does is dunk. That's when I stopped arguing about Rui on here.

[Dark Faze]

Apologies if it's already been mentioned, but the SBNation/BulletsForever podcast on this recently feels particularly relevant atm:

https://anchor.fm/sowizards/episodes/Free-Rui--The-Campaign-Starts-Here-e1g0nph

Some diverse opinions here, and was an entertaining listen.

From what I'm hearing, we're entering that Otto Porter territory, maybe to a more significant degree because Otto had a longer track record of strong efficiency and is/was the better rebounder. Hearing some of those same words used like "opportunity". I've just completely checked out on engaging with the idea that usage can be significantly improved. If it happens great, but I just can't expect it or do much more to "extract it" than to up the minutes to a reasonable amount.

[nate33]

Apologies if it's already been mentioned, but the SBNation/BulletsForever podcast on this recently feels particularly relevant atm:

https://anchor.fm/sowizards/episodes/Free-Rui--The-Campaign-Starts-Here-e1g0nph

Some diverse opinions here, and was an entertaining listen.

From what I'm hearing, we're entering that Otto Porter territory, maybe to a more significant degree because Otto had a longer track record of strong efficiency and is/was the better rebounder. Hearing some of those same words used like "opportunity". I've just completely checked out on engaging with the idea that usage can be significantly improved. If it happens great, but I just can't expect it or do much more to "extract it" than to up the minutes to a reasonable amount.

Otto Porter is an interesting comparison. His timeline of development is almost exactly like Rui.

Otto suddenly went from low-minute bench player nobody, to being an integral component of a playoff team late in his 2nd season. I still remember when he shut down Demarr DeRozan in the playoffs and Skiles couldn't afford to take him off the floor. He averaged 33 minutes a game while coming off the bench!

Rui got more playing time as a rookie than Otto, but he was basically gifted the minutes without earning them and was mostly a nobody in his first one-and-a-half seasons. But like Otto, Hachimura suddenly began to earn those minutes late in his second season and become a very useful player by the playoffs that year (when he suddenly starting shooting 50% from 3 and rebounding better). He played 42 minutes a game in his last 2 playoff games.

Otto rounded into a decent starter in his 3rd season, but it was kind of frustrating how low his usage was and how we didn't find him enough shots. Mostly, he just operated in the background, posting 18 points, 8 boards and 2 assists per 100 possessions on a .567 TS%. That's nothing great, but not bad either. Those numbers look a lot like Rui this year, who is posting 25 points 8 boards and 2 assists per 100 possessions, on a TS% of .596, albeit mostly against backups.

Porter finally put it together late in his 3rd season when he figured out the 3-ball and shot 48% over the last 20 games of the season. His TS% climbed to .620 and his scoring increased a bit. Rui appears to be doing the same thing right now, shooting insanely good from 3-point range and posting a TS% of .625 over his last 20 games.

Porter took the momentum from his 3rd season and brought it into his 4th, becoming an above-average starter whose advanced numbers were nearly All-Star caliber. We shall see if Rui can do the same thing. I suppose it's possible on offense. I think the big difference between the two is that Otto was always a better, more aware team defender. Rui hasn't yet proven to be a plus defender. He can guard his man, but he doesn't make much of an impact in help defense or on the glass.

[DCZards]

Apologies if it's already been mentioned, but the SBNation/BulletsForever podcast on this recently feels particularly relevant atm:

https://anchor.fm/sowizards/episodes/Free-Rui--The-Campaign-Starts-Here-e1g0nph

Some diverse opinions here, and was an entertaining listen.

From what I'm hearing, we're entering that Otto Porter territory, maybe to a more significant degree because Otto had a longer track record of strong efficiency and is/was the better rebounder. Hearing some of those same words used like "opportunity". I've just completely checked out on engaging with the idea that usage can be significantly improved. If it happens great, but I just can't expect it or do much more to "extract it" than to up the minutes to a reasonable amount.

Otto Porter is an interesting comparison. His timeline of development is almost exactly like Rui.

Otto suddenly went from low-minute bench player nobody, to being an integral component of a playoff team late in his 2nd season. I still remember when he shut down Demarr DeRozan in the playoffs and Skiles couldn't afford to take him off the floor. He averaged 33 minutes a game while coming off the bench!

Rui got more playing time as a rookie than Otto, but he was basically gifted the minutes without earning them and was mostly a nobody in his first one-and-a-half seasons. But like Otto, Hachimura suddenly began to earn those minutes late in his second season and become a very useful player by the playoffs that year (when he suddenly starting shooting 50% from 3 and rebounding better). He played 42 minutes a game in his last 2 playoff games.

Otto rounded into a decent starter in his 3rd season, but it was kind of frustrating how low his usage was and how we didn't find him enough shots. Mostly, he just operated in the background, posting 18 points, 8 boards and 2 assists per 100 possessions on a .567 TS%. That's nothing great, but not bad either. Those numbers look a lot like Rui this year, who is posting 25 points 8 boards and 2 assists per 100 possessions, on a TS% of .596, albeit mostly against backups.

Porter finally put it together late in his 3rd season when he figured out the 3-ball and shot 48% over the last 20 games of the season. His TS% climbed to .620 and his scoring increased a bit. Rui appears to be doing the same thing right now, shooting insanely good from 3-point range and posting a TS% of .625 over his last 20 games.

Porter took the momentum from his 3rd season and brought it into his 4th, becoming an above-average starter whose advanced numbers were nearly All-Star caliber. We shall see if Rui can do the same thing. I suppose it's possible on offense. I think the big difference between the two is that Otto was always a better, more aware team defender. Rui hasn't yet proven to be a plus defender. He can guard his man, but he doesn't make much of an impact in help defense or on the glass.

Great job, Nate. Really appreciate you taking the time to document the comparison between Otto and Rui.

Otto is indeed a plus defender, especially compared to Rui. Otto’s biggest shortcoming as a Zards, imo, was his inability to put the ball on the floor and create for himself and others. Rui struggles with that part of the game as well.

A key difference between the two is that Otto is primarily a SF, while Rui has the size and strength of a PF with the ability to physically bully defenders in ways that Otto is not capable of.

[doclinkin]

A key difference between the two is that Otto is primarily a SF, while Rui has the size and strength of a PF with the ability to physically bully defenders in ways that Otto is not capable of.

The biggest difference between the two is that Otto is built of the fine china on the good dishes that grandma never let anyone use. Rui has only missed time due to a powerful kick in the Bongas, and a mental state that I suppose was analogous to the fragility of Otto's hips, I dunno. I do like how Rui is progressing. If that trend continues he will live up to the projection that he was simply behind other players due to late exposure to the game, and that if veteran experience lets his mind catch up with his physical gifts then he will be a force to be reckoned with. Not there yet, but progress is hopeful.

[WallToWall]

This is supposed to be a pivotal season for him. After this season, we are supposed to have a clear idea of what he is capable of on a game by game basis, what he can/will deliver consistently, and what his ceiling will be. I genuinely have no idea on all those counts. I am throwing my hands up.

[DCZards]

This is supposed to be a pivotal season for him. After this season, we are supposed to have a clear idea of what he is capable of on a game by game basis, what he can/will deliver consistently, and what his ceiling will be. I genuinely have no idea on all those counts. I am throwing my hands up.

Rui missed the first half of the season (he's only played in 40 games) and is playing an average of 9 less minutes this season than he played during the 2020-21 season. So it's kinda hard to truly consider this a "pivotal season" for him, imo.

[NatP4]

I think it’s pretty clear what Rui is at this point. We all used to talk about how it was easy to envision 18 points a game on 60% TS, well he’s done exactly that in the last 20 games, and he still really isn’t all that impactful.

Raptor/RPM/On/Off all say he’s absolutely horrible. He doesn’t rebound or protect the rim or provide the help defense required to play the 4/5, and he doesn’t handle the ball and create/slide his feet well enough to really play on the wing effectively. He’s really just in the mold of Markieff Morris/Kyle Kuzma/Tobias Harris. They pass the eye test and can put up a random monster game, but they are really bad and don’t help you win games most of the time.

The swing position in the NBA is the 4 position. If you look around the league, good teams don’t have a bad player playing the bulk of the minutes at the 4. You either have a true wing that can rebound and protect the paint like a big, or a true big that can space the floor out and effectively slide his feet on the perimeter. The wizards have 48 minutes of neither of those.

We should be excited about Kispert and Avdija, and it’s great that Rui is making more jumpshots this year, but he’s 24 and not going to get much better than this and the wiz should look to cash in on whatever trade value he has this off-season/next trade deadline.

[Dolevi]

As long as he won't improve his defense, decisions making in offense and passing skills - I can't see him upgrading his game that far. Eyes test comfirms that. What he is now is what you'll get. He's a good scorer, can create points for you in many ways, but sometimes his decisions making in offense plus his not good enough footwork in defense hurt his contribution for the team. Kispert and Avdija right now are more promising, especially Avdija (Can't tell how much Kispert can improve from now on - he's a shooter).

[payitforward]

Using Otto Porter as a point of comparison does Rui no favors at all.

When he was a few months younger than Rui is right now, Otto Porter signed a max contract. He was one of the very best young players in the NBA.

In his 2016-17 season -- when he was 22 (Rui is already 24) -- Otto looked like a nascent star. He was just as good the following season. You really don't want to compare what Rui has done this year with what Otto did those two years.

Then, Otto's body gave out. Period. Now that he's healthy again he is once again an outstanding player.

For a while this season, Rui played a bit better than he had to date. But his productivity has now slipped below that of his rookie year overall. That's really unfortunate.

To be sure, Rui is doing one thing quite well this year -- as of this writing, his 3 pt. % is .447. &, he also fouls a little bit less than average & turns the ball over slightly less often than average for a player at his position.

Yet, because he doesn't see the floor well (low BBIQ) he records few assists. So, despite low TOs, his assist to turnover ratio is awful. He's also below average in steals & basically never blocks a shot. Rui is also a below average defensive rebounder & an absolutely awful offensive rebounder. He was below average as a rookie, but he's gotten significantly worse.

As to scoring, his 2 pt % is lousy, & an average 4 gets to the line about 36% more often & shoots a significantly higher % when he's there.

As a result, Rui's TS% is only very slightly above average -- .578 as against .573 power forward average -- despite his dynamite 3-point shooting. Which continues tonight. & that was a nice mid-range swish against Gibson.

Of course, you can ignore numbers if you want -- except, of course, the numbers you like: those you won't ignore. &, because I point out numbers, you can call me a "hater." Feel free.

Only thing... you can't improve Rui that way. In the end, the numbers will either make him or break him. Here's hoping they improve & that he has a long NBA career!