Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread

[FAH1223]

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[Kanyewest]

Age is the overwhelming variable that must be factored. Adjust for age and Florida ranks 23rd in deaths while NY ranks 7th.
https://www.bioinformaticscro.com/blog/states-ranked-by-age-adjusted-covid-deaths/

Also note that Florida now has the lowest death rate in the country so they will continue to improve in the ranking as we go through the winter.

Again, this includes 2020 where New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey were not following any social distancing mandates. And even then Florida is below average.

23rd is pretty damn close to average to me. And my point isn't that Florida has handled the crisis the best in terms of maximizing lives saved. I'm just saying that Florida, with no lockdowns and no vaccine mandates, and in a fairly densely populated country equivalent to much of the coastal Atlantic, achieved similar if not better results than many other states with similar population density. They also did it with more obese people than the Northeast, and more Blacks and Hispanics (who have a higher death rate everywhere). And they did it all while having among the best unemployment rates and best economies. My guess is that they had lower suicide and drug overdose rates too.

The point is, policies don't really matter. Or their impact pales in comparison to climate, population density, and demographics. Heck, culture probably matters as much as anything. It doesn't surprise me that the Germans and Scandinavians who live in Wisconsin and Minnesota have very low Covid death rates just as the Germans and Scandinavians in Germany and Scandinavia do.

I disagree- policy does matter. If anything Florida's policy is also inflating the United States number as a whole as FLorida is not a closed border, people visit Florida. Also I'm not sure if we should adjust for population either necessarily either since older people are generally more careful about Covid than the younger population. Average for the United States is also terrible world wide, Close to the top 5 percent of all nations.

And if we go back to the aggregate numbers Florida averages 52 more deaths per 100,000, 273, (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/) than the national average of 237 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality). That's 4 times the difference between New York and Florida at the which has decreased a lot (IIRC in the neighborhood of 100 over 100,000). Florida is also around 30 per 100,000 over the national average. And the United States is one of the worst performing countries in the world as far as Covid so even if Florida is average for the US it's still could do better by a worldwide standard.

Europe is generally more densely populated than the US BTW. The population density of Germany (229/km2)(https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-density) is comparable to that of Maryland (238.7/km2)(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density) , which is in the US top five states – Germany is almost 7 times as densely populated as the US as a whole . Yet Germany has half the death rate of the US.

Germany may have had better policy. They had much more testing early on. They restricted travel much earlier than the United States. And perhaps their compliance with wearing masks was much higher.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

A massive study on natural immunity just came out, from Qatar.

They tracked 353,326 individuals who had been infected prior to April 2021.
They dropped 87,547 from the study because they subsequently got vaccinated.
That left them with a sample of 265,779 people with prior infection and no subsequent vaccination.

In that group of "naturally immune" people, a total of 1304 got reinfected over the next 3-14 months. That's an infection rate of just 0.5% despite Qatar experiencing two back-to-back Covid waves between January and May of 2021.

Of those 1304 who got reinfected, a grand total of 4 of them required hospitalization, 0 required ICU, and 0 died. (Of those 4 hospitalized, 1 had diabetes, 1 had hypertension, 1 had asthma, and 1 had "unknown status" of preconditions.)

They also compared the odds of hospitalization on reinfection versus hospitalization upon first infection. Only 4 out of 1304 people required hospitalization upon reinfection, versus 158 out of a demographically matching sample of 6095 on their first infection. Essentially, the hospitalization risk after reinfection is just 12% that of the hospitalization risk of a first infection. So, reinfection is very rare, and even if it happens, hospitalization risk is massively reduced.

Basically, natural immunity is close to a sure bet for Covid immunity. And no study I've seen has demonstrated any statistical evidence that immunity wanes.

Qatar seems to have done well in regards to Covid. Only 611 deaths out of 243 K cases. Of course their vaccination rate stands at 88 percent of their eligible population (https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/qatar/).

Less than 5% of the population of Qatar is over age 55. Hard to know how studies of this population translate to the rest of the world given how young they skew demographically. In the US for example over 20% of our population is age 55 and up.

Pronounce Qatar Qatar Qatar box cutter

[nate33]

Again, this includes 2020 where New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey were not following any social distancing mandates. And even then Florida is below average.

23rd is pretty damn close to average to me. And my point isn't that Florida has handled the crisis the best in terms of maximizing lives saved. I'm just saying that Florida, with no lockdowns and no vaccine mandates, and in a fairly densely populated country equivalent to much of the coastal Atlantic, achieved similar if not better results than many other states with similar population density. They also did it with more obese people than the Northeast, and more Blacks and Hispanics (who have a higher death rate everywhere). And they did it all while having among the best unemployment rates and best economies. My guess is that they had lower suicide and drug overdose rates too.

The point is, policies don't really matter. Or their impact pales in comparison to climate, population density, and demographics. Heck, culture probably matters as much as anything. It doesn't surprise me that the Germans and Scandinavians who live in Wisconsin and Minnesota have very low Covid death rates just as the Germans and Scandinavians in Germany and Scandinavia do.

I disagree- policy does matter. If anything Florida's policy is also inflating the United States number as a whole as FLorida is not a closed border, people visit Florida. Also I'm not sure if we should adjust for population either necessarily either since older people are generally more careful about Covid than the younger population. Average for the United States is also terrible world wide, Close to the top 5 percent of all nations.

And if we go back to the aggregate numbers Florida averages 52 more deaths per 100,000, 273, (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/) than the national average of 237 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality). That's 4 times the difference between New York and Florida at the which has decreased a lot (IIRC in the neighborhood of 100 over 100,000). Florida is also around 30 per 100,000 over the national average. And the United States is one of the worst performing countries in the world as far as Covid so even if Florida is average for the US it's still could do better by a worldwide standard.

Europe is generally more densely populated than the US BTW. The population density of Germany (229/km2)(https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-density) is comparable to that of Maryland (238.7/km2)(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density) , which is in the US top five states – Germany is almost 7 times as densely populated as the US as a whole . Yet Germany has half the death rate of the US.

Germany may have had better policy. They had much more testing early on. They restricted travel much earlier than the United States. And perhaps their compliance with wearing masks was much higher.

No. It is absolutely incorrect to look at it this way. There is a MASSIVE increase in case fatality rate with age. The median age in Florida is 4 years older than the national average. Eyeballing that CDC chart I linked above, that 4 extra years of age should result in about 50% more deaths. The fact that Florida is just 15% higher than the national average is a sign of success. (Florida has 36 more deaths per 100,000, not 52.)

[Kanyewest]

23rd is pretty damn close to average to me. And my point isn't that Florida has handled the crisis the best in terms of maximizing lives saved. I'm just saying that Florida, with no lockdowns and no vaccine mandates, and in a fairly densely populated country equivalent to much of the coastal Atlantic, achieved similar if not better results than many other states with similar population density. They also did it with more obese people than the Northeast, and more Blacks and Hispanics (who have a higher death rate everywhere). And they did it all while having among the best unemployment rates and best economies. My guess is that they had lower suicide and drug overdose rates too.

The point is, policies don't really matter. Or their impact pales in comparison to climate, population density, and demographics. Heck, culture probably matters as much as anything. It doesn't surprise me that the Germans and Scandinavians who live in Wisconsin and Minnesota have very low Covid death rates just as the Germans and Scandinavians in Germany and Scandinavia do.

I disagree- policy does matter. If anything Florida's policy is also inflating the United States number as a whole as FLorida is not a closed border, people visit Florida. Also I'm not sure if we should adjust for population either necessarily either since older people are generally more careful about Covid than the younger population. Average for the United States is also terrible world wide, Close to the top 5 percent of all nations.

And if we go back to the aggregate numbers Florida averages 52 more deaths per 100,000, 273, (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/) than the national average of 237 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality). That's 4 times the difference between New York and Florida at the which has decreased a lot (IIRC in the neighborhood of 100 over 100,000). Florida is also around 30 per 100,000 over the national average. And the United States is one of the worst performing countries in the world as far as Covid so even if Florida is average for the US it's still could do better by a worldwide standard.

Europe is generally more densely populated than the US BTW. The population density of Germany (229/km2)(https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-density) is comparable to that of Maryland (238.7/km2)(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density) , which is in the US top five states – Germany is almost 7 times as densely populated as the US as a whole . Yet Germany has half the death rate of the US.

Germany may have had better policy. They had much more testing early on. They restricted travel much earlier than the United States. And perhaps their compliance with wearing masks was much higher.

No. It is absolutely incorrect to look at it this way. There is a MASSIVE increase in case fatality rate with age. The median age in Florida is 4 years older than the national average. Eyeballing that CDC chart I linked above, that 4 extra years of age should result in about 50% more deaths. The fact that Florida is just 15% higher than the national average is a sign of success. (Florida has 36 more deaths per 100,000, not 52.)

And Florida is still bad compared to the world. BTW Florida's median age is 42 and Germany's is 45.7 https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/germany-population/#:~:text=The%20median%20age%20in%20Germany%20is%2045.7%20years. And it has pretty much half the death rate. And a population density greater than Florida by 50%, again Germany is comparable to Maryland (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183588/population-density-in-the-federal-states-of-the-us/).

[nate33]

I disagree- policy does matter. If anything Florida's policy is also inflating the United States number as a whole as FLorida is not a closed border, people visit Florida. Also I'm not sure if we should adjust for population either necessarily either since older people are generally more careful about Covid than the younger population. Average for the United States is also terrible world wide, Close to the top 5 percent of all nations.

And if we go back to the aggregate numbers Florida averages 52 more deaths per 100,000, 273, (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/) than the national average of 237 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality). That's 4 times the difference between New York and Florida at the which has decreased a lot (IIRC in the neighborhood of 100 over 100,000). Florida is also around 30 per 100,000 over the national average. And the United States is one of the worst performing countries in the world as far as Covid so even if Florida is average for the US it's still could do better by a worldwide standard.

Europe is generally more densely populated than the US BTW. The population density of Germany (229/km2)(https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-density) is comparable to that of Maryland (238.7/km2)(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States_by_population_density) , which is in the US top five states – Germany is almost 7 times as densely populated as the US as a whole . Yet Germany has half the death rate of the US.

Germany may have had better policy. They had much more testing early on. They restricted travel much earlier than the United States. And perhaps their compliance with wearing masks was much higher.

No. It is absolutely incorrect to look at it this way. There is a MASSIVE increase in case fatality rate with age. The median age in Florida is 4 years older than the national average. Eyeballing that CDC chart I linked above, that 4 extra years of age should result in about 50% more deaths. The fact that Florida is just 15% higher than the national average is a sign of success. (Florida has 36 more deaths per 100,000, not 52.)

And Florida is still bad compared to the world. BTW Florida's median age is 42 and Germany's is 45.7 https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/germany-population/#:~:text=The%20median%20age%20in%20Germany%20is%2045.7%20years. And it has pretty much half the death rate. And a population density greater than Florida by 50%, again Germany is comparable to Maryland (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183588/population-density-in-the-federal-states-of-the-us/).

Can't compare Florida to Germany because there are too many other factors: climate and culture to be specific. Germany also happens to be one of the best performing European countries in the world. Nearly every state would suffer in that comparison. I note that you aren't comparing Florida to, say, the UK or Spain.

Let's stick with the U.S. Prove to me that policy matters more so than climate, population density, and demographics (including age, obesity and race).

[Kanyewest]

No. It is absolutely incorrect to look at it this way. There is a MASSIVE increase in case fatality rate with age. The median age in Florida is 4 years older than the national average. Eyeballing that CDC chart I linked above, that 4 extra years of age should result in about 50% more deaths. The fact that Florida is just 15% higher than the national average is a sign of success. (Florida has 36 more deaths per 100,000, not 52.)

And Florida is still bad compared to the world. BTW Florida's median age is 42 and Germany's is 45.7 https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/germany-population/#:~:text=The%20median%20age%20in%20Germany%20is%2045.7%20years. And it has pretty much half the death rate. And a population density greater than Florida by 50%, again Germany is comparable to Maryland (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183588/population-density-in-the-federal-states-of-the-us/).

Can't compare Florida to Germany because there are too many other factors: climate and culture to be specific. Germany also happens to be one of the best performing European countries in the world. Nearly every state would suffer in that comparison. I note that you aren't comparing Florida to, say, the UK or Spain.

Let's stick with the U.S. Prove to me that policy matters more so than climate, population density, and demographics (including age, obesity and race).

Explain why climate effects covid. I'm curious because what I've heard is that covid is more likely to spread in cooler climates given that it's more likely for people to spend time indoors as well as surges happening in the winter.

And even the United Kingdom is lower than Florida (median age of 40.5 compared to 42), a population density of 8 times that of the United States (even more dense than Germany). And the UK actually had slower response than Germany - Boris Johnson was much slower in getting testing, lax in policy (he actually contacted covid), Germany was better in contact tracing. The UK also experienced its first case in January yet did better than early hit territoires in the United States. Florida in the meantime had its first case in March.

Spain is also lower than Florida/UK, having its first case in January. But even several had a slow response to dealing with the crisis than Germany . https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7753436/. But even then Spain is outperforming the US with a higher median age (44.9).

[nate33]

And Florida is still bad compared to the world. BTW Florida's median age is 42 and Germany's is 45.7 https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/germany-population/#:~:text=The%20median%20age%20in%20Germany%20is%2045.7%20years. And it has pretty much half the death rate. And a population density greater than Florida by 50%, again Germany is comparable to Maryland (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183588/population-density-in-the-federal-states-of-the-us/).

Can't compare Florida to Germany because there are too many other factors: climate and culture to be specific. Germany also happens to be one of the best performing European countries in the world. Nearly every state would suffer in that comparison. I note that you aren't comparing Florida to, say, the UK or Spain.

Let's stick with the U.S. Prove to me that policy matters more so than climate, population density, and demographics (including age, obesity and race).

Explain why climate effects covid. I'm curious because what I've heard is that covid is more likely to spread in cooler climates given that it's more likely for people to spend time indoors as well as surges happening in the winter.

And even the United Kingdom is lower than Florida (median age of 40.5 compared to 42), a population density of 8 times that of the United States (even more dense than Germany). And the UK actually had slower response than Germany - Boris Johnson was much slower in getting testing, lax in policy (he actually contacted covid), Germany was better in contact tracing. The UK also experienced its first case in January yet did better than early hit territoires in the United States. Florida in the meantime had its first case in March.

Spain is also lower than Florida/UK, having its first case in January. But even several had a slow response to dealing with the crisis than Germany . https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7753436/. But even then Spain is outperforming the US with a higher median age (44.9).

Covid seems to spread in temperate environments, but really cold environments slow the spread. Or maybe it's just that cold environments have low population density. But every state that borders Canada is faring better than states further south. Scandinavia is doing better than Germany, who is doing better than France, who is doing better than Italy. You get the same gradient in central Europe going southward from Estonia to Poland to Hungary to Bulgaria.

[dckingsfan]

Under this rational, there would be no public policy. Therefore any public policy must not work. But...

Australia was very effective with their travel policy.
SK was very effective with their TTQ and masking policies.
The US was very effective getting the vaccine produced with Warp Speed.
Portugal was very effective at turning vaccines into vaccinations.

Comparing failed states makes no sense. The US and Europe failed.

There was a solid go forward plan early on. Now the best PUBLIC POLICY go forward plan is to get folks vaccinated.

BTW, there was always the notion that the vaccine would be a 3 or 4 dose regimen. Given the early returns on the 3rd dose, that could indeed be the case and those that are vaccinated (and aren't really old, immunocompromised or have serious comorbidities - those folks may need additional boosters) could be done after the 3rd or 4th dose.

And then we will be onto the endemic phase of Covid.

[Kanyewest]

Can't compare Florida to Germany because there are too many other factors: climate and culture to be specific. Germany also happens to be one of the best performing European countries in the world. Nearly every state would suffer in that comparison. I note that you aren't comparing Florida to, say, the UK or Spain.

Let's stick with the U.S. Prove to me that policy matters more so than climate, population density, and demographics (including age, obesity and race).

Explain why climate effects covid. I'm curious because what I've heard is that covid is more likely to spread in cooler climates given that it's more likely for people to spend time indoors as well as surges happening in the winter.

And even the United Kingdom is lower than Florida (median age of 40.5 compared to 42), a population density of 8 times that of the United States (even more dense than Germany). And the UK actually had slower response than Germany - Boris Johnson was much slower in getting testing, lax in policy (he actually contacted covid), Germany was better in contact tracing. The UK also experienced its first case in January yet did better than early hit territoires in the United States. Florida in the meantime had its first case in March.

Spain is also lower than Florida/UK, having its first case in January. But even several had a slow response to dealing with the crisis than Germany . https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7753436/. But even then Spain is outperforming the US with a higher median age (44.9).

Covid seems to spread in temperate environments, but really cold environments slow the spread. Or maybe it's just that cold environments have low population density. But every state that borders Canada is faring better than states further south. Scandinavia is doing better than Germany, who is doing better than France, who is doing better than Italy. You get the same gradient in central Europe going southward from Estonia to Poland to Hungary to Bulgaria.

I've seen studies like this that say it spreads more in moderate climates climates although it isn't a determining factor

Considering the existing scientific evidence, warm and wet climates seem to reduce the spread of COVID-19. However, these variables alone could not explain most of the variability in disease transmission. Therefore, the countries most affected by the disease should focus on health policies, even with climates less favorable to the virus. Although the certainty of the evidence generated was classified as low, there was homogeneity between the results reported by the included studies.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238339


This one was from 2020 but still pretty interesting that it predicted some of the initial hotspots.

In a new paper published on the open-data site SSRN, the researchers found that all cities experiencing significant outbreaks of COVID-19 have very similar winter climates with an average temperature of 41 to 52 degrees Fahrenheit, an average humidity level of 47 to 79 percent with a narrow east-west distribution along the same 30-50 N” latitude. This includes Wuhan, China, South Korea, Japan, Iran, Northern Italy, Seattle, and Northern California. It could also spell increasing trouble for the Mid-Atlantic States and -- as temperatures rise -- New England.

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/news/2020/Researchers-Predict-Potential-Spread-and-Seasonality-for-COVID-19-Based-on-Climate-Where-Virus-Appears-to-Thrive.html

Although this Indian paper cites warmer temperatures/climate change/emissions. But even then India is much lower compared to the rest of the world - 7 to 8 times less than the United States- probably other factors coming into play of course. (ie territories in India with higher emissions have higher population density, mask compliance, etc).

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GH000305

[Kanyewest]

Qatar seems to have done well in regards to Covid. Only 611 deaths out of 243 K cases. Of course their vaccination rate stands at 88 percent of their eligible population (https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/qatar/).

Less than 5% of the population of Qatar is over age 55. Hard to know how studies of this population translate to the rest of the world given how young they skew demographically. In the US for example over 20% of our population is age 55 and up.

Pronounce Qatar Qatar Qatar box cutter

I failed

[Kanyewest]

Under this rational, there would be no public policy. Therefore any public policy must not work. But...

Australia was very effective with their travel policy.
SK was very effective with their TTQ and masking policies.
The US was very effective getting the vaccine produced with Warp Speed.
Portugal was very effective at turning vaccines into vaccinations.

Comparing failed states makes no sense. The US and Europe failed.

There was a solid go forward plan early on. Now the best PUBLIC POLICY go forward plan is to get folks vaccinated.

BTW, there was always the notion that the vaccine would be a 3 or 4 dose regimen. Given the early returns on the 3rd dose, that could indeed be the case and those that are vaccinated (and aren't really old, immunocompromised or have serious comorbidities - those folks may need additional boosters) could be done after the 3rd or 4th dose.

And then we will be onto the endemic phase of Covid.

I agree with most of this. Take what each country did well and see how it can be reasonably applied to one own's country for best practices at the present moment. For instance, Germany has done a better job containing Covid since the beginning of the pandemic. That being said, the UK has done a better job containing Covid as of late than Germany- possibly explained by the fact that nearly most UK's over 65 population is vaccinated while someone cited that 3 million of German citizens over 65 remain unvaccinated.

In the meantime, Austria has become the first country to issue a vaccine mandate - by February to get their numbers under control. Can't imagine that happening in the US anytime soon- but it will certainly be interesting to monitor how that impacts their Covid numbers.

[nate33]

Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study

Findings
The SAR in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% (95% CI 18–33) for fully vaccinated individuals compared with 38% (24–53) in unvaccinated individuals. The median time between second vaccine dose and study recruitment in fully vaccinated contacts was longer for infected individuals (median 101 days [IQR 74–120]) than for uninfected individuals (64 days [32–97], p=0·001). SAR among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (25% [95% CI 15–35] for vaccinated vs 23% [15–31] for unvaccinated). 12 (39%) of 31 infections in fully vaccinated household contacts arose from fully vaccinated epidemiologically linked index cases, further confirmed by genomic and virological analysis in three index case–contact pairs. Although peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status or variant type, it increased modestly with age (difference of 0·39 [95% credible interval –0·03 to 0·79] in peak log10 viral load per mL between those aged 10 years and 50 years). Fully vaccinated individuals with delta variant infection had a faster (posterior probability >0·84) mean rate of viral load decline (0·95 log10 copies per mL per day) than did unvaccinated individuals with pre-alpha (0·69), alpha (0·82), or delta (0·79) variant infections. Within individuals, faster viral load growth was correlated with higher peak viral load (correlation 0·42 [95% credible interval 0·13 to 0·65]) and slower decline (–0·44 [–0·67 to –0·18]).

link

Basically, the unvaccinated were a bit more likely than the vaccinated to contract Covid from an infected individual (38% versus 25%). On the other hand, a vaccinated individual who actually has Covid is just as likely to transmit the virus as an unvaccinated individual with Covid (25% to 23%).

As I've stated before, the idea that vaccination is some magic bullet that protects public health is misguided. The vaccinated spread the virus just as easily as the unvaccinated, and they're only slightly protected from contracting it. And that resistance to contracting the virus declines over time.

[Kanyewest]

Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study

Findings
The SAR in household contacts exposed to the delta variant was 25% (95% CI 18–33) for fully vaccinated individuals compared with 38% (24–53) in unvaccinated individuals. The median time between second vaccine dose and study recruitment in fully vaccinated contacts was longer for infected individuals (median 101 days [IQR 74–120]) than for uninfected individuals (64 days [32–97], p=0·001). SAR among household contacts exposed to fully vaccinated index cases was similar to household contacts exposed to unvaccinated index cases (25% [95% CI 15–35] for vaccinated vs 23% [15–31] for unvaccinated). 12 (39%) of 31 infections in fully vaccinated household contacts arose from fully vaccinated epidemiologically linked index cases, further confirmed by genomic and virological analysis in three index case–contact pairs. Although peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status or variant type, it increased modestly with age (difference of 0·39 [95% credible interval –0·03 to 0·79] in peak log10 viral load per mL between those aged 10 years and 50 years). Fully vaccinated individuals with delta variant infection had a faster (posterior probability >0·84) mean rate of viral load decline (0·95 log10 copies per mL per day) than did unvaccinated individuals with pre-alpha (0·69), alpha (0·82), or delta (0·79) variant infections. Within individuals, faster viral load growth was correlated with higher peak viral load (correlation 0·42 [95% credible interval 0·13 to 0·65]) and slower decline (–0·44 [–0·67 to –0·18]).

link

Basically, the unvaccinated were a bit more likely than the vaccinated to contract Covid from an infected individual (38% versus 25%). On the other hand, a vaccinated individual who actually has Covid is just as likely to transmit the virus as an unvaccinated individual with Covid (25% to 23%).

As I've stated before, the idea that vaccination is some magic bullet that protects public health is misguided. The vaccinated spread the virus just as easily as the unvaccinated, and they're only slightly protected from contracting it. And that resistance to contracting the virus declines over time.

Or perhaps the UK's Astrazeneca is less effective against Delta? Or do those who are vaccinated follow different behaviors? BTW, I believe the UK does not really mask up anymore either.

Either way death rates were much higher per 100,000 among vaccinated than unvaccinated in UK as of October of 2021.

When adjusted proportionally to display the rate per 100,000 people in all age groups, the number of COVID-19 deaths is higher in the unvaccinated population than in the vaccinated population, the data shows.

For the over-80s, the rate of death per 100,000 unvaccinated was 156. For those vaccinated, it was 49.5.

For those aged 70-79, the rate of death was more than five times higher in those who are unvaccinated.

Meanwhile, the rate of death for unvaccinated 60- to 69-year-olds was 66.4 out of 100,000 in comparison to 13.1 for those who are vaccinated.

This shows that, proportionally, fewer people died from COVID-19 who had been fully vaccinated.

Reuters previously addressed claims taking Public Health England data out of context here.

Reuters also addressed social media posts questioning why more cases and deaths might be reported amongst a vaccinated population than an unvaccinated one (here).

A PHE spokesperson told Reuters at the time: “The data should be interpreted taking into consideration the context of very high vaccine coverage in the UK population. Even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-coronavirus-britain/fact-check-vaccinated-people-in-britain-are-not-dying-at-a-higher-rate-than-the-unvaccinated-idUSL1N2RP28I

[Kanyewest]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[nate33]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

That study doesn't pass the smell test.

It says that in the month of September, 40,274 unvaccinated 18-29 year-olds contracted Covid and 84 of them died. That's an infection fatality ratio of 0.2%, or 1 in 500. We have lots of data (from the pre-vaccine era) that shows that the IFR of Covid for 18-29 year-olds is on the order of 0.01%, or 1 in 10,000. Essentially, the study is saying that unvaccinated people in Texas are dying at 20X the national rate.

I assume that Texas has fairly accurate data for deaths (though there is that pesky distinction between deaths by Covid and deaths with Covid), which means their data on infections is off by an order of magnitude. With infection rate measurement that erroneous, I don't see how the infection data can be useful.

[dckingsfan]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm

[nate33]

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm

That infection number is clearly no longer accurate. I can produce current numbers from multiple states right now showing that vaccines provide only 50% or even less protection.

Take Vermont for example. Here is their data summary from the week ending November 17th.

On page 5, it tells you that there were 6700 Covid cases in October.

On page 11, it gives a weekly count of "breakthrough Covid cases among vaccinated people". If you add up the weeks of October (taking half of week 1 because it straddles September) you get 2786 breakthrough cases.

2786 breakthrough cases out of 6700 total Covid cases is a 41.5%.
75% of the people of Vermont have been fully vaxed.
Therefore, the vaccines are only 44% effective at preventing infections. That's less than 2X.

It's frustrating that the CDC keeps lying to us when the numbers are available for all to see. It's equally frustrating that the news media won't tell the truth because they are trying to sustain a narrative of universal vaccination at all costs.

[nate33]

Wyoming has their breakthrough infection rate easily available:
https://sites.google.com/wyo.gov/covid-19/home

On November 20th, there were 460 unvaxed cases per 100,000, and 128 vaxed cases per 100,000. Therefore, 21% of cases were breakthroughs. 42% of Wyoming residents are fully vaccinated. That means the vaccine provides 50% protection to infection, or exactly 2X.

[Kanyewest]

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

That study doesn't pass the smell test.

It says that in the month of September, 40,274 unvaccinated 18-29 year-olds contracted Covid and 84 of them died. That's an infection fatality ratio of 0.2%, or 1 in 500. We have lots of data (from the pre-vaccine era) that shows that the IFR of Covid for 18-29 year-olds is on the order of 0.01%, or 1 in 10,000. Essentially, the study is saying that unvaccinated people in Texas are dying at 20X the national rate.

I assume that Texas has fairly accurate data for deaths (though there is that pesky distinction between deaths by Covid and deaths with Covid), which means their data on infections is off by an order of magnitude. With infection rate measurement that erroneous, I don't see how the infection data can be useful.

Death rates for 18-29 are actually lower nationally around 4,618 deaths (https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku?mobile_redirect=true) for 8.4 million cases https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254271/us-total-number-of-covid-cases-by-age-group/. So it seems that unvaccinated Texans are doing worse nationally in that subset if it is 1 out of 500.

But the big point is that deaths in the 50 and older crowd is higher which is where more than 85-90% of the deaths are occurring nationally. Less than 1% of the deaths are occurring between 18-29 demographic https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku?mobile_redirect=true

Still, that doesn't mean that those in the younger demographic don't have side effects. And of course they can spread them to more critically vulnerable people in the population. In August only around 50% of nursing home workers were vaccinated https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/13/coronavirus-texas-nursing-homes-staff/