Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[Dat2U]

My initial foray into ranking the prospects by tiers. I've ordered the prospects by positional need with PFs being the most important IMO (sorry Dray). Followed by SFs & CEs. Even though Kyrie Irving might be the best prospect in the draft he's ranked at the bottom of TIER TWO because he plays the same position as Wall. There's no TIER ONE prospects IMO.

TIER ONE

None

TIER TWO

PF Perry Jones III
PF Jared Sullinger
PF Derrick Williams
SF Terrence Jones
SF Harrison Barnes
CE Jonas Valanciunas
CE Enes Kanter
PG Kyrie Irving
PG Kemba Walker

TIER THREE

PF Kenneth Faried
PF Jan Vesely
PF Donatas Motiejunas
PF John Henson
PF Marcus Morris
SF Chris Singleton
SF Jordan Hamilton
PG Brandon Knight

Right now this is all I have. I'm sure this will change a hundred times from now to June. I only included players listed in current mock from DraftExpress.

[kirubel94]

Bojan Bogdanovic

vs

jan veesly

i just came across bogdanovic(SF) real good shooter and good athleticism.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJlaskj4G0I

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I respecfully disagree, tontoz and nate.

Big picture: Blatche is 24, very highly-skilled, big, very cheaply-signed. He is an asset because you don't get players with his talent, size, youth and potential at that price. McGee is 22, freakishly athletic--a rare combination of length, end-to-end foot speed, leaping ability, good hands, great timing on shot blocks, with a high motor.

This surprises me coming from you. As a long-champion of the "undersized" yet productive big, you've always banged the drum of production over potential. The college stats you look at have helped you get ahead of the curve on some guys like Millsap, Love, etc.

So why get taken in by Dray's "talent, size, youth and potential at that price"? At the end of the day he's unproductive, and productivity is the P that matters a hell of a lot more than potential. It would be one thing if the guy had all the great intangibles, but mitigating circumstances meant he was just having a bad year. But the fact is that if he had those intangibles, he never would have slipped to where he did in the draft, and never would have been the position to sign the two "bargain" contract extensions that he has.

I haaaaaate to say it, but Dray's a dog. Let's cut the cord and move on.

Last season, Blatche posted a PER of 15.6. He's IMO a slightly better-than-average player if he sticks to doing a few things well. I would opt for a better role for Andray, thus a new coach.

I would, however, move Blatche for the draft rights to Faried.

[DCZards]

So why get taken in by Dray's "talent, size, youth and potential at that price"? At the end of the day he's unproductive, and productivity is the P that matters a hell of a lot more than potential. It would be one thing if the guy had all the great intangibles, but mitigating circumstances meant he was just having a bad year. But the fact is that if he had those intangibles, he never would have slipped to where he did in the draft, and never would have been the position to sign the two "bargain" contract extensions that he has.

I haaaaaate to say it, but Dray's a dog. Let's cut the cord and move on.

Some experts thought Dray might be drafted in the mid- to late-first round, and were a little surprised when he slipped to the second round. The knock on him at the time was his immature attitude and his questionable work ethic. Thus far, he's been living up to that negative reputation.

It's wrong (and a diversion) to blame coaching for Dray's lack of production, imo. Dray's problems, for the most part, are of his own making.

[Ruzious]

Faried won't go top-6. Jordan Williams won't either. Charles Jenkins, Dmetri McCamey, LaceDarius Dunn, Gilbert Brown, and JaJuan Johnson will not go in the top six.

Faried belongs in the top ten for sure IMO. Possibly in the top five. Where would you draft a player that is Millsap mixed with Ariza but quite possibly better than either of them?

I think there are always good players who slip like Landry Fields did.

Sometimes, but we need to get a great player and then several good ones. The good'ns don't matter much without a great'n.

[pcbothwel]

I think one area we need to focus on if we get a Sullinger/Kanter/Valanciunas with our 1st pick is a "do-it-all" fundamental wing. NY has his strengths, but having a slightly contrasting player would make his job easier. Thats why I think Harrison Barnes is goin to be a premier glue guy and one of the best 2nd option players in the league. I have also stated it before, but I see David Lighty as a Doug Christie/Aaron Afflalo type 2-gaurd as well and would be well worth our 2nd round pick.

This draft is getting interesting as the season goes on as the two overhyped, under producing players (Perry Jones and Barnes) are starting to find their comfort zone. Ladarius Dunn has some scoring talent but he needs to look to Jones more.

P.S. when Jeremy Tyler comes in with Derek Favors type measurements and a humble approach, he's goin to MUCH higher than the early to mid 2nd round that hes projected at currently.

[Illuminaire]

Agreed, Ruz. With the current talent level in this league, you need more than one great player to be an annual contender in the post season. The Wiz have some good building blocks, but no great ones. Blatche is too [insert issue here]. McGee is an idiot. Nick is too two-dimensional and likely to be overpaid. We have no idea if Seraphin or Booker will even be good yet, but it's doubtful they'll be better than a Davis/Perkins bench combo on a championship team.

The Wiz need to still be looking at the fences. We need another thoroughbred before we can run with the big dogs.

[nate33]

I think one area we need to focus on if we get a Sullinger/Kanter/Valanciunas with our 1st pick is a "do-it-all" fundamental wing. NY has his strengths, but having a slightly contrasting player would make his job easier. Thats why I think Harrison Barnes is goin to be a premier glue guy and one of the best 2nd option players in the league. I have also stated it before, but I see David Lighty as a Doug Christie/Aaron Afflalo type 2-gaurd as well and would be well worth our 2nd round pick.

A well-rounded swingman is definitely a need, but it's not a priority. For now, we have a serviceable all-around swing man in Lewis, who is costing $20M+ a year. He can hold down the fort for another year.

Our biggest priority is the acquisition of a two-way big man - somebody very good on offense and at least average on defense.

Our second biggest priority is the acquistion of a really good defensive big man. There's still a chance that McGee ends up filling this role, but I'm not holding my breath. I figure one of Blatche/McGee must be traded, and the other should probably be a backup. (Or maybe trade them both.)

Our third priority is to acquire a starting-caliber small forward for the future.

I think Nick is good enough to start at shooting guard, at least for a while. I think he's better than anybody we're likely to acquire in the next couple of years since we really need to focus on other positions first. Accordingly, I'd go ahead and resign Nick. I understand those who have reservations about him. Perhaps we should sign him to a relatively short deal, 3-years or so. He'll handle SG duties while we get the rest of our team in order. And if we ultimately decide we need an upgrade, we can try to acquire one via free agency when Young's contract expires.

[Dat2U]

Our biggest priority is the acquisition of a two-way big man - somebody very good on offense and at least average on defense.

So that pretty much rules out Jared Sullinger or Derrick Williams right? Neither look like they are going to be able to defend PFs at the next level. Sullinger b/c of his lack of athleticism and Williams because of his lack of size.

[Benjammin]

Our biggest priority is the acquisition of a two-way big man - somebody very good on offense and at least average on defense.

So that pretty much rules out Jared Sullinger or Derrick Williams right? Neither look like they are going to be able to defend PFs at the next level. Sullinger b/c of his lack of athleticism and Williams because of his lack of size.

Hey Dat, all we have to do is swing by the quality two-way big man store and pick up a couple. Or we could just go by two way big man orchard this summer and pluck a couple off the quality big man tree. It's just that easy.

If Blatche and McGee both are incapable of being reasonably good starters this sets this team back significantly. There's no escaping that. I have no desire to be Pollyanna about either guy's light finally coming on and staying on, but if I'm a Wizards fan I better hope and pray that it does. If nothing else for Blatche to play well enough actually to get some value for him.

[fishercob]

Our biggest priority is the acquisition of a two-way big man - somebody very good on offense and at least average on defense.

So that pretty much rules out Jared Sullinger or Derrick Williams right? Neither look like they are going to be able to defend PFs at the next level. Sullinger b/c of his lack of athleticism and Williams because of his lack of size.

Every team in the league needs a "quality two way big." If we have a shot at a guy who is potentially elite at one end of the floor and passable at the other, I wouldn't skip over him based on his shortcomings.

Kevin Love purportedly struggles on defense, and I don't doubt it. But he's a weapon on offense and elite on the boards. Good enough for me at this point. As bad as the Wizards are defensively (22nd) they're well worse (27th) on O. If we can get a a guy who can help fix either problem, it's a win.

[Induveca]

Outside of PG we need help everywhere.

The more I stare at this team, we should sell high on Young. I firmly believe as soon as he gets a contract he'll go the way of Blatche. Neither of those guys seem to have that competitive fire to keep them at a high level.

At this point I'd dump Young for a high first rounder if it was available and a reliable vet.

[nate33]

Outside of PG we need help everywhere.

The more I stare at this team, we should sell high on Young. I firmly believe as soon as he gets a contract he'll go the way of Blatche. Neither of those guys seem to have that competitive fire to keep them at a high level.

At this point I'd dump Young for a high first rounder if it was available and a reliable vet.

Nobody will offer a high first for a guy who will be a free agent in 30 games.

It's pretty unlikely that we'll get any decent return for Young in any trade scenario due to his impending free agency. With Young, the question is: do we resign him or not? And the answer to that question depends on the cost - something we don't know yet.

[verbal8]

Outside of PG we need help everywhere.

The more I stare at this team, we should sell high on Young. I firmly believe as soon as he gets a contract he'll go the way of Blatche. Neither of those guys seem to have that competitive fire to keep them at a high level.

At this point I'd dump Young for a high first rounder if it was available and a reliable vet.

I think he would be either/or rather than both. The problem is that if a team really wants him they can make him an offer in Free Agency.

[fishercob]

Outside of PG we need help everywhere.

The more I stare at this team, we should sell high on Young. I firmly believe as soon as he gets a contract he'll go the way of Blatche. Neither of those guys seem to have that competitive fire to keep them at a high level.

At this point I'd dump Young for a high first rounder if it was available and a reliable vet.

Nobody will offer a high first for a guy who will be a free agent in 30 games.

It's pretty unlikely that we'll get any decent return for Young in any trade scenario due to his impending free agency. With Young, the question is: do we resign him or not? And the answer to that question depends on the cost - something we don't know yet.

You are correct. it all depends on the cost. Ernie should make best efforts to gauge the cost from Nick's agent and if he doesn't like what he's hearing, move him for a mid first. If the agent is reasonable, then I'm okay holding on to Nick and keeping him on the relative cheap. He's not a terrible guy to have on your roster from a trade value standpoint because he has a pretty jumper, can score points, etc.

[closg00]

Outside of PG we need help everywhere.
The more I stare at this team, we should sell high on Young. I firmly believe as soon as he gets a contract he'll go the way of Blatche. Neither of those guys seem to have that competitive fire to keep them at a high level.

At this point I'd dump Young for a high first rounder if it was available and a reliable vet.

I would argue that we could use one of those also. Wall is fragile and has lots to learn. I suppose we could put this off until after Kirk is traded, but it will need to be addressed.

[Ruzious]

P.S. when Jeremy Tyler comes in with Derek Favors type measurements and a humble approach, he's goin to MUCH higher than the early to mid 2nd round that hes projected at currently.

Here's a link with a lot of his highlights in Japan. http://www.asiabasketballupdate.com/jeremy-tyler.html

He's a talent, but no way the Wiz touch him - even in the 2nd round - unless they're collecting as many raw bigs as they can find - the more questionable the tude the better.

[nate33]

Our biggest priority is the acquisition of a two-way big man - somebody very good on offense and at least average on defense.

So that pretty much rules out Jared Sullinger or Derrick Williams right? Neither look like they are going to be able to defend PFs at the next level. Sullinger b/c of his lack of athleticism and Williams because of his lack of size.

You may well be right. I'm definitely concerned about Sullinger's D. And Williams may not be able to defend PF's either. It's why I'm keeping a sharp eye on Kanter and Valanciunas. I'd also offer our top pick to NJ for Favors.

In today's NBA, defense is more important than offense. Give me Josh Smith over Carlos Boozer. Give me Joakim Noah over Al Jefferson.

[Ruzious]

Our biggest priority is the acquisition of a two-way big man - somebody very good on offense and at least average on defense.

So that pretty much rules out Jared Sullinger or Derrick Williams right? Neither look like they are going to be able to defend PFs at the next level. Sullinger b/c of his lack of athleticism and Williams because of his lack of size.

You may well be right. I'm definitely concerned about Sullinger's D. And Williams may not be able to defend PF's either. It's why I'm keeping a sharp eye on Kanter and Valanciunas. I'd also offer our top pick to NJ for Favors.

In today's NBA, defense is more important than offense. Give me Josh Smith over Carlos Boozer. Give me Joakim Noah over Al Jefferson.

I agree in general, but... I think you can win big with a dominant offensive big - like Amare - key word being dominant. That's as long as you have good team defense.

Oh, and any team with Lebron has a shot. Btw, look for Dampier to make a difference for Miami in the playoffs.

[nate33]

I agree in general, but... I think you can win big with a dominant offensive big - like Amare - key word being dominant. That's as long as you have good team defense.

Oh, and any team with Lebron has a shot. Btw, look for Dampier to make a difference for Miami in the playoffs.

True. But a Lebron/Boozer pairing wouldn't be as effective as a Lebron/Smith pairing. The beauty of defensive-minded players is that their talents are generally cumulative. You can add a star scorer to a good defensive team without losing anything. If you add a star scorer to a good offensive team, there are diminishing returns.

While we're on the subject, is there any chance we can trade Blatche for Varejao? It'll help our tank mission because Varajeo is hurt, it'll give Booker more minutes, it gets Blatche's less-than-professional attitude off our roster, and it doesn't hurt us cap wise.

Next year, we'll have a quality defensive big man to tag-team with McGee. That'll force McGee to work harder this offseason if he wants minutes, and it'll take away some of McGee's minutes in general, which could drive down the cost to resign him. It also opens up room for our draft pick, who is likely to be a PF.

I'd be fairly pleased with a frontline of Kanter and Varejao, backed up by Booker and McGee.