How do you fix this team?

[Nivek]

At the end of last season, I recall Dray being double teamed pretty close to every game. And at first Blatche was averaging 2.9 assists per game and then as he got more comfortable with double teams finished up averaging 5.1 assists per game in April.

5.1 assists from a 6'11'' guy is flat out ridiculous. Yes it's a too short stretch, but it also tells me it can happen. Those weren't lucky assists.

I'm not sure what you're saying exactly when you say he got doubled every game. If you mean that he faced double teams at least sometimes in each game, cool. If you mean he got doubled all or most of the time, that doesn't match what I remember. I'd have to look at video on that, and honestly -- I'd almost rather dislocate my knee again.

5.1 assists from a guy his size is nice. There have been only 10 player seasons since 1979-80 where a guy 6-10 or taller averaged that many assists per game (and KG had 3 of 'em).

He also averaged 3.75 turnovers per game during that stretch. It's also a pretty rare feat for someone his height -- just 13 player seasons since 79-80.

He also shot .432 from the floor while averaging 21.5 points per game. That's also a rare feat -- only two players 6-10 or taller since 79-80 have scored at least 21 ppg while shooting worse than 44% from the floor.

But they are the power structure in a cancerous power structure and they need to be changed just for the sake of change. This is going on 6 years of undisciplined behavior on and off the court, absurd injury tendencies and bad chemistry. It's time to make a change for the sake of change.

I don't entirely agree, but I don't disagree either. If the change is to Kevin Pritchard and Dave Joerger, I'd be pretty happy.

15.9/7.9/2.3 is meaningful, but it's not winning production and it's frustrating because it's well below Blatche's potential.

Why are these numbers meaningful, but his shooting percentage, usage rate, turnovers and ortg not? Blatche's ortg has moved in a very narrow band his entire career -- 93, 97, 103, 101, 101, 97. For comparison, Garnett was 107, 107, 109, 102 (when his usage first jumped waaaay up), 107, 108. And then it went up from there. Or Dirk -- 95, 112, 118, 120, 117, 116.

Probably the best hope in terms of a comparison is Lamar Odom -- 100, 102, 94, 99, 102, 107. And then up from there. This season, Odom's ortg is 120.

Blatche has "freakish" hand-eye coordination for a 6'11'' person and a "freakish" natural feel for the game. We know he doesn't work at it but his footwork on the "up and under" post move is as good as any big man since Kevin McHale.

I don't agree with either of those "freakish" characterizations. Maybe the hand-eye thing, but I don't think it's that amazing any more. There are lots of guys his height in the league with great hand-eye coordination. Think about Turkoglu, who's 1 inch shorter, but could probably play PG. Or Blake Griffin, Odom, Garnett, Dirk. That's just off the top of my head. Aldridge in Portland is pretty gifted in this area. Bosh. I'm sure others if I started going through rosters.

I definitely disagree on the "feel for the game" thing. His "feel" is superficial. His shot selection is awful -- as bad as I've ever seen. His court awareness is terrible. He regularly gets picked from behind. He's regularly surprised by double teams. He regularly takes just the wrong kind of shot at just the wrong moment.

Will Blatche get there? I don't know and my doubts have increased significantly this season. But this thread is about how we fix this team and that includes keeping a 6'11'' 24 year old with all-star ability if he grows up. I understand that's a big "if" but this is a franchise that probably has a year or two more to find that out. The worst case scenario is that we have a streaky rotation "big" at $7M/season for a few years. I'm still very intrigued by the Blatche/McGee/Seraphin/Booker rotation down the line.

The only real argument for keeping Blatche is the age thing. Thing is, most (not all) who are going to be terrific already are by that age. Plus, this is his 6th season. He's played 8300+ minutes. I searched b-r for players with a similar profile (6-10 or taller; 16+ pts per 36; 8+ rebounds; an ortg of 100 or lower; a usage rate of 23+); in their 5th or 6th season (some like to discount Blatche's rookie season), and at least 300 total minutes played and came up with this list:

- Isaac Austin
- Blatche
- Stanley Roberts
- Alaa Abdelnaby

Dave Feitl, Jack Haley and Zendon Hamilton also showed up, but each with fewer than 200 minutes.

Efficiency matters.

[tontoz]

I'd have to look at video on that, and honestly -- I'd almost rather dislocate my knee again.

[DCZards]

It's funny how four games in a Wizards uniform can cause folks to totally form an opinion on a player that's the exact opposite from how the rest of the league views him. Josh Howard was the last player anyone would have considered a good teammate or mentor before he got to DC. He's off the court rep for immaturity is legendary in Dallas. And his on the court rep of not being able to or willing to play through pain is well known too.

I'm aware of Howard's stupid comments about weed but I haven't heard it suggested that he was not a good teammate or was not willing to play through pain. It those views and allegations are legendary and well known throughout the league I assume you can offer some proof...other than your post.

[dobrojim]

- Isaac Austin
- Stanley Roberts
- Alaa Abdelnaby


wow - what stunning company! Those guys had NBA careers!

[Zonkerbl]

I agree with your interpretation of the chart, CCJ. I also agree that Flip should be doing the same with Blatche.

You are still the smartest guy here, Nivek.

doclinkin's got the cute kid and connubial bliss thing going on--as you both are freaks of nature in the brain's department. Y'all are 1 and 1a in my book. I consider nate and Hoopalotta fiscal geniuses. Wizardynasty, ballteacher, JonathanJoseph, and eitanr, but also doclinkin I learn a lot of hoops 101 from. Ji and Pine make my laugh the most, along with JWiz and zerocius/new name.. The guys with swagger who I really can't help but respect are Induveca, Consiglieri, and montestewart. Okay, you, too DCZards even though we always get into it. LR, mhd, fugop, barelyawake all know talent and the trade checker well. Dat, I dub the draft guru. Givony, Aran Smith, and others only have resources on you. Me, I am opinionated and ornery.

Today I'm in the best of moods. Maybe it was all the love from my folks worried about the tsunami. Yep, I am sleep deprived.

Hey, what about me and my leet economics skillz?

[Nivek]

Out of curiosity, I looked for players 6-10 or taller who, through 6 seasons, had a usage rate of 22 or higher (Blatche's is 22.7) and an offensive rating of 101 or lower (Blatche's is 100).

Here’s the list:

- Ralph Sampson
- Jermaine O’Neal
- Herb Williams
- Andray Blatche
- Isaac Austin
- Chris Anstey
- Alaa Abdelnaby
- Sharone Wright
- Predrag Drobnjak
- Doug Smith
- Acie Earl
- William Bedford
- John Amaechi

The only guy to get excited about is O’Neal, but Jermaine was a good rebounder (Blatche isn’t) and a terrific defender (Blatche isn't) who actually made the All-NBA team in his 6th, 7th and 8th seasons. Blatche ain't the 2nd coming of Jermaine O'Neal.

[JonathanJoseph]

Out of curiosity, I looked for players 6-10 or taller who, through 6 seasons, had a usage rate of 22 or higher (Blatche's is 22.7) and an offensive rating of 101 or lower (Blatche's is 100).

Here’s the list:

- Ralph Sampson
- Jermaine O’Neal
- Herb Williams
- Andray Blatche
- Isaac Austin
- Chris Anstey
- Alaa Abdelnaby
- Sharone Wright
- Predrag Drobnjak
- Doug Smith
- Acie Earl
- William Bedford
- John Amaechi

The only guy to get excited about is O’Neal, but Jermaine was a good rebounder (Blatche isn’t) and a terrific defender (Blatche isn't) who actually made the All-NBA team in his 6th, 7th and 8th seasons. Blatche ain't the 2nd coming of Jermaine O'Neal.

Your points are all well taken, but none of those other players have/had Blatche's skill set.

And Jermaine O'neal might be the only player on that list worth comparing Blatche to given that they were the one's who came straight from HS. I believe more in experience than age.

Lamar Odom is probably the best comparison for me (and another guy without much college ball). You could always see glimpses of what Odom could do but it took him a number of years before he was able to put it together.

I get what the stats say and don't disagree that Blatche has been bad this year but I also keep in mind that there is a big difference between correlation and causation.

[LyricalRico]

I remember the CPU using Abdelnaby to kill me on Bulls vs Lakers. LOL

[JonathanJoseph]

[big snippage]

Meaningful? 15.9/7.9/2.3 is meaningful, but it's not winning production and it's frustrating because it's well below Blatche's potential.

Blatche has "freakish" hand-eye coordination for a 6'11'' person and a "freakish" natural feel for the game. We know he doesn't work at it but his footwork on the "up and under" post move is as good as any big man since Kevin McHale.

Will Blatche get there? I don't know and my doubts have increased significantly this season. But this thread is about how we fix this team and that includes keeping a 6'11'' 24 year old with all-star ability if he grows up. I understand that's a big "if" but this is a franchise that probably has a year or two more to find that out. The worst case scenario is that we have a streaky rotation "big" at $7M/season for a few years. I'm still very intrigued by the Blatche/McGee/Seraphin/Booker rotation down the line.

Pretty big claim. I'm betting others on the board can think of many players
in the roughly 20 years since McHale retired that probably have better
footwork than Dray. I'd start with Olajuwan.

I hope you are right in your optimism about him mostly because I think
at the present time, we're stuck with him. Our chances seem to me to
be better that he actually wakes up and flies right than that another
team will agree to take him off our hands for something that is not
clearly worse.

Yes this is elite as-good-as-it-gets footwork

edit: Doh! It cuts off the end of the move.

[DCZards]

Lamar Odom is probably the best comparison for me (and another guy without much college ball). You could always see glimpses of what Odom could do but it took him a number of years before he was able to put it together.

I get what the stats say and don't disagree that Blatche has been bad this year but I also keep in mind that there is a big difference between correlation and causation.

Lamar Odom? The thing that separates Blatche from Lamar (and in a big way) is that you could see in college at RI that Lamar had an extremely high b'ball IQ. We're still waiting for Andray to show us that he has any b'ball IQ at all.

[Nivek]

Blatche following a similar path as Odom would be a dream for the Wizards. Some key differences, though -- (through 6 seasons) Odom shot better (.475 efg to .466), passed better (4.3 assists per 36 minutes vs. 2.3), and shot the 3 better (.307 to .237). Rebounding is about the same between the two. Scoring also about the same (per minute). Usage rates were similar too.

One big difference -- Blatche's career assist to turnover ratio is 0.9 (yes, that's more turnovers than assists). Odom's through 6 seasons -- 1.4. And before we go down the "but look at Blatche's teammates" route, keep in mind that Odom played his first 4 seasons for the Wizards West (LA Clippers).

I'd love for Blatche to become an Odom-like player. I don't see it happening, though.

[dobrojim]

[big snippage]

Meaningful? 15.9/7.9/2.3 is meaningful, but it's not winning production and it's frustrating because it's well below Blatche's potential.

Blatche has "freakish" hand-eye coordination for a 6'11'' person and a "freakish" natural feel for the game. We know he doesn't work at it but his footwork on the "up and under" post move is as good as any big man since Kevin McHale.

Will Blatche get there? I don't know and my doubts have increased significantly this season. But this thread is about how we fix this team and that includes keeping a 6'11'' 24 year old with all-star ability if he grows up. I understand that's a big "if" but this is a franchise that probably has a year or two more to find that out. The worst case scenario is that we have a streaky rotation "big" at $7M/season for a few years. I'm still very intrigued by the Blatche/McGee/Seraphin/Booker rotation down the line.

Pretty big claim. I'm betting others on the board can think of many players
in the roughly 20 years since McHale retired that probably have better
footwork than Dray. I'd start with Olajuwan.

I hope you are right in your optimism about him mostly because I think
at the present time, we're stuck with him. Our chances seem to me to
be better that he actually wakes up and flies right than that another
team will agree to take him off our hands for something that is not
clearly worse.

Yes this is elite as-good-as-it-gets footwork

edit: Doh! It cuts off the end of the move.

your claim though was that Dray has footwork equal to
any big since McHale. I already gave you Olajuwan.

But really, it doesn't matter. Even if his footwork is
phenomenal, the best ever, if it doesn't translate into efficient
production, who cares? It doesn't matter.

[nate33]

You gotta love that stellar help defense from Rasheed Wallace.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ, I have some family in Hawaii and they got move dto higher ground last night. Can you give me a sense of things there right now? Do you feel at all unsafe? Much thanks.

My kid's field trip got canceled. Some folks (unnecessarily) were evacuated from a few places by military types.

fish, I live far enough inland to where my boys and I had said our prayers and were sleep knowing the forecast of tsunamis to hit at 3AM. I live near a mountain, but did pray it didn't wipe out folks on every coast. I knew which areas were forewarned to evacuate. So, I turned off the news and figured it was in God's hands. Why worry?

Sirens went off during the night but I knew it was because the fire station nearby handles water rescue and civil defense stuff island-wide. I slept well... Until PANIC! My sister from the mainland called all hysterical. My cousin and other sister were worried. My dad told them they would get more out of me and to warn me...I spent a lot of time on the phone calming worried relatives. It is good to be loved--I know somebody cares.

Apparently some media report went out that Waikiki got slammed with a monster wave. Not true at all. In fact I'm gonna hang out down that way later on. This island got storm surge waters that were very routine. Nada. Maui got hit fairly decent, but nothing catastrophic. A lot if folks there had to hike up the hills.

Biggest thing was panic/emergency shopping for gas, water, provisions caused traffic jams. Today was a slow business day, but good for me! No lines.

All is well here, but not so on the California coast, I hear.

[Ruzious]

You gotta love that stellar help defense from Rasheed Wallace.

It was a clinic in bad defense. Really Big Baby was most at fault - ya never give up the baseline in that situation. Play him go the other way, so it's easy for the help to come.

Glad to hear everything's good by you, CCJ.

[Ruzious]

dble post

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

You gotta love that stellar help defense from Rasheed Wallace.

It was a clinic in bad defense. Really Big Baby was most at fault - ya never give up the baseline in that situation. Play him go the other way, so it's easy for the help to come.

Glad to hear everything's good by you, CCJ.

Thanks, Ruzious.

Life is good, and I have a lot to be thankful for. Family, friends, and faith all motivate me to appreciate things I largely took for granted in the past. I will never allow depression, divorce, or drama associated with life's ups and downs to take away my joy. (Nehemiah 8:10). And for those who don't believe what I believe in, I am learning more about how to be loving and respectful and non-judgmental towards everyone. God is love. I won't ever understand earthquakes and suffering, but I can do my part to be a decent human being and to enjoy life.

Ruz, I am doing well and thanks for being a friend all these years.

[Ruzious]

Me niether, CCJ. "Natural disasters" seem so unnatural. I guess we should be thankful when we don't have them. It's a strange life and a lot better with people like you.

[hands11]

Glad to hear it didn't hit HI like it hit Japan

Funny, CCJ was the first thing that popped in my head when they said he was heading to HI.

[Jay81]

Im tired of reading about how everyone is using the Oklahoma City Model. They lucked into getting Durant because Portland too Oden. How would the OKC model look if they had Oden?