Let me back up a bit since I'm out of town on business. (New York Comics Convention. Really).
A few comments:
yungal07 wrote:Sorry to break it to you Doc, but there's pretty much no chance EG takes Curry. He just traded for Critt and James
And how's that working out again? We have zero production at the back-up 1-spot. A developing but incomplete prospect at the 2-guard. We are dead last in 3pt shooting. We are consistently trailing the league in assists per game. We are bottom 5 in Free Throws per possession (a metric led by teams with good point guards who thread the needle to a big man in good position under the cylinder, or break down their opponent off the dribble-- Billups, Deron Williams, Nash).
I agree we get Gilbert back, and if healthy he helps in all the above categories. But 100 mills or no, when's the last time we had a healthy Gilbert? fact is if you're paying 100+ mills to a player who may never come back 100%, you want to have a cheap replacement for him at that spot. Maybe even an upgrade.
What are the two hardest positions to fill on any basketball team? Dominant Center and Team General Point Guard. How easy is it to get these players? You can't get them through free agency, no one wants to give them up. Key is not to waste a top pick, when you have one, on a middling player who fits a team need--if you can trade another asset to get that sort of player anyway. Role playing 2-guards can be had. Witness our history.
Up 'til now we've had make-do players at 2-guard who have gone on to earn massive contracts on other teams because they have been playing next to high-output forwards, and occasionally Gilbert. We can fill that position any year. Best case scenario maybe Nick grows up. Otherwise, package and swap.
But what we haven't had in forever is that game-winning real-time tactician squad leader. We've got a starting center and a promising back-up (or two) at that position. If Thabeet is the best available, it's tough to take him next to McGee.
But that point-in-waiting position, well that's open for auditions.
And if you're trying to out-guess Ernie, well recognize he drafted 6'11" Dray when we had Jamison on a huge contract, and Brendan in the middle; then 7' Pech after Dray; then 7' JaVale. He takes best available regardless of position or team need.
Ruzious wrote:Doc, I'd buy a ticket on your [Curry} bandwagon - if Arenas wasn't here. I don't think you pay a guy 112 zillion dollars and then say - we're giving the keys to a skinny rookie. Those 3's should go way up next season - with Gil's return and hopefully better results at the 2 (Danny Green perhaps splitting time with Young). I love Curry's game, but I view him as a luxury item for the Wiz, and I couldn't get myself to use the high lotto pick on him.
Reply is:
the Curry concept is predicated on a few things:
---We ain't winning the #1 slot in the lotto. Odds are against it. Otherwise Griff and be done with it.
---Gil and Haywood have to return this year for the team to know what it's got and what needs to be done about it.
--We will win a few more games with them back, since other teams will be tanking late, and because with decent health and a full roster, we're pretty good, can sneak up on teams, oddly.
---So maybe we won't have a top pick there either anyway.
---The best players available at the top of the lotto are unpolished Bigs, which we have in spades already. Thus for better value, we trade down, where the draft ain't stocked with project/prospect Bigs.
---Ideally we swap a veteran+pick for a high quality (two-way) vet at a need position + their later pick. Then take the best player available regardless of position.
And my best read of the prospects is-- after Blake-- Curry is the 'best available' at his position. Better than other players are in comparison to the next best guy at their position. At the hardest position to fill.
Here are a few things I'm looking at. Let's consider
a few ballhandling guards. Break out your calculator to run the ratio of Free Throw Attempts per Turnover. This is one of my pet stats for perimeter slashing attack guards. I haven't seen anyone collate it yet. Essentially this is a metric for how well a player can control a ball in traffic. Jeff Teague and Stef Curry each are sent to the charity stripe about 8 times per 40 minutes. High FTA totals suggest a player who is unafraid to drive into traffic, willing to penetrate. Both these players average about a 2/1 FT per TO ratio, running about 4 TOs per game. Not bad.
But consider, Stef is also averaging about 7 assists per 40 minutes (adjusted). On a team with about 2 other double digit scorers. Compare with another fave Nick Calathes (who has about 4 double digit scorers on his squad) or Ty Lawson (Carolina stacked with 5+ double digit scorers).
If a player can score and shows dominant on-ball skills, I often respect small school assists more than those at Majors. Teams are loading up to stop you, you have no one else to pass to, and still you manage to spread the ball around. Stef drops better than one assist every four touches. With a decent asst/TO ratio despite being the focal point of the teams offense and accounting for the vast majority of his team's possessions. See Rod Stuckey.
Defensively he shows the same vision. His Blocks + steals per personal foul ratio is 1.5. Averaging ~3 steals per game. He can see the play developing on both sides of the court.
Among other superlatives.
Check the long list of his #1 and #2 rankingsin various key categories. Then notice he's been doing it for three years. Improving every year. And recognize this is his first year playing point guard, ever...
All you can look for in a player is constant improvement. That way lies perfection.
Just saying. Drafting for a better-than-average shooting guard in a humdrum year where 2-guards ain't the ripest apples on the tree, well, that's a recipe for being better-than-average I suppose. But lotto picks are about risk, you got to try for greatness, find your better-than-average players elsewhere.
This year could well be stocked with high quality PGs, even if Rubio stays put. Seems to me a few teams could land their future pace-controller by drafting smart in the first round or even late. There are instant game-changers available right now. Better than many of the possible long-term project Bigs. There are Bigs I like. But there are Points who it could be criminal to miss. And best part is they may be available at a spot lower down. Thus, cheaper, better value, and we can use the prospect of a swap to improve or drop luxtax-risk contracts, or both.
