Poll: Grade Ernie Grunfeld

[no D in Hibachi]

Can anyone help me remember recent resignings that have been worse than Arenas and Blatche? The warning signs were there for both yet EG gave huge extensions to both. In terms of toxic players with toxic contracts Arenas and Blatche have to be 1-2 over the last five seasons. Its taken all of two games for the wheels to fall off this season, i dont see how Ted retains EG after this year.

[queridiculo]

To me the resigning that worse was the Jamison contract. Grunfeld had a chance to shake up the roster after it was pretty darn clear that the team as constructed wouldn't go anywhere.

Instead of acknowledging the teams deficiencies he was blinded by that brief first place stint, in an extremely weak Eastern Conference, and really put the franchise in a bind.

The Rubio trade was a disaster in hindsight as well. Not so much because of the trade but because of how it went down. Absurd in retrospect when you consider how much value other teams got from trading their top ten lottery picks that year.

There was absolutely no reason to make that trade so soon, Grunfeld essentially got owned by Khan. Pretty sad if you ask me.

[nate33]

Can anyone help me remember recent resignings that have been worse than Arenas and Blatche? The warning signs were there for both yet EG gave huge extensions to both. In terms of toxic players with toxic contracts Arenas and Blatche have to be 1-2 over the last five seasons. Its taken all of two games for the wheels to fall off this season, i dont see how Ted retains EG after this year.

Revisionist history. When Arenas' contract was up, it was believed by all that he would fully recover from his knee injury a la Amare Stoudemire or Jason Kidd. He was our superstar and the player that delivered us to the playoffs 4 years in a row. He had to be resigned and everyone on this board was in favor or it except CCJ who had some reservations. And we had to sign Jamison if we wanted to keep Arenas. Our choices were to either blow up a playoff team or maintain the status quo. With Abe's ailing health, EG had only one option.

And everyone loved the Blatche resigning at the time. Blatche had just come off a 3-month stretch when he averaged 24, 8 and 3 and he was looking flat out dominant out there. It was assumed by all that he would cost $10M a year or more to keep once he hit the free agency market. So rather than keep him at $3m a year for two years and then pay him $10M+ or more, EG voided his contract and resigned him for 5 years at about $7M a year. Even the EG critic, Dat2U, liked the Blatche signing at the time.

You EG haters are so wildly unobjective that it's laughable. EG has certainly made mistakes, but you can't evaluate his mistakes 2 years later with 20/20 hindsight.

EG's mistakes are:
Resigning Etan
Drafting Pecherov
Trading for Crittenton. The pick we gave up ended up being a 1st rounder last draft
Trading the #5 pick for Miller and Foye
Trading Haywood to Dallas for Gooden (Cuban said he'd have done the Butler trade without this)

EG's "meh" moves are:
Resigning Stevenson
Signing Daniels
Signing Songalia
Resigning Arenas (no real choice in the matter)
Resigning Jamison (no real choice in the matter)
Drafting Seraphin (jury still out, but it doesn't look good)
Trading Butler + Stevenson for Josh Howard

EG's good moves are:
Signing Stevenson the first time
Drafting Young who will end up as a legit starter for most of his career
Drafting Blatche in the 2nd round
Drafting McGee who remains an asset
Drafting Booker late in the first
Drafting Singleton late in the first
BOYD for Hinrich and Seraphin
Dumping Jamison's awful contract while getting the Booker pick in the process
Trading Hinrich for Mo Evans, Crawford and Singleton

On balance, I think he has been above average. The team has simply lacked luck with injuries and in draft position. To me, his one perhaps unforgivable mistake was the Miller/Foye trade. One can argue that that mistake alone outweighs all the good he has done. But outside of that, I think he has been pretty good.

[dandridge 10]

Nate,

Not everyone agreed with the Blatche signing...I certainly didn't. As Fish can attest, I've never believed in this guy.

Otherwise, I don't necessarily disagree with your post with two exceptions. First, I think you need to add passing on Blair as a mistake. It was a high reward/low risk draft pick that he should have made. Second, I wouldn't say the Miller/Foye trade was an "unforgivable" mistake. Using your "revisionist history", I think it was a mistake. However, I don't think it was a no brainer when it was conducted. I didn't like it, but I recall a lot of people thinking the trade was worth it at the time. Moreover, we don't know how much of the trade was because of EG, or Abe's givem me the best chance to win before I die approach.

[no D in Hibachi]

Revisionist history or not, how are you supposed to evaluate EG? Doing a micro analysis of each move in a vacuum is ineffective because it completely fails to evaluate the macro prospective. As we are all aware, the Wizards/Bullets organization has been one of the least successful US sports franchises over the last 30 years. Washington just concluded the worst three year stretch in franchise history. The fact this sorry franchise is currently marred in the most futile state of its existence says a lot since EG's been in charge for 8ish? years. Everything is this organization has his seal of approval.

If you're going to do a micro analysis of his moves you've got to put more weight in his major decisions and clearly multi-year extensions, particularly max salary commitments, have to be evaluated from every prospective. It’s impossible to say EG is average by putting his selection of fringe starter in Singleton side by side with the max contract extension. One clearly holds more weight. The Arenas contract is the worst in sports history. You can’t just let the man who negotiated it and signed it off the hook because ‘revisionist history.’ He had a significant injury, showed little to no leadership skills, wasn’t a two way player, never lead the team to anything before getting injured, and this all goes without saying anything about his mental state.

I don’t actively bash EG, I’ve grown numb to the fact he’s not real good and I hope Washington wins in spite of what he does, but I don’t see how anyone, especially someone as insightful as you Nate, can actively defend his body of work. Unless a miracle turn around take place I just don’t see how EG lasts beyond this season.

[paulpressey25]

I'm an opinionated Milwaukee fan from a few of the other threads.

I enjoy weighing in on these Grunfeld threads every six-months or so because the guy was toxic for our franchise when he was with us.

Both Milwaukee and Washington have (had) one thing in common. A beloved yet completely incompetent and meddling owner. In our case it is Herb Kohl. In your case Abe. Both guys like the idea of "winning now" rather than spending years in the high lotto. Both guys are(were) up in age. Kohl is 76 and I think Abe died at 87 (?)

While it would be easy to blame all of Ernie Grunfeld's bad moves on meddling owners, I think that allows him off the hook. The bottom line is that the guy has been a GM from August 1999 (Bucks) through the current day (Wizards). In those 12.5 years, the guy has really made zero signature moves where you go "Wow, that was a great GM....that move(s) turned our franchise around"

In the draft world, he absolutely sucks. He doesn't find you Westbrooks, Serge Ibaka's or Wesley Matthews. Instead he finds you Marcus Haislips and Nick Young's at best.

In the contract world, he overpays everyone for fear of "losing an asset". Whether it was giving Tim Thomas $68 million to stay in Milwaukee, $20 million along with Scott Williams and a future #1 (Josh Smith) for Anthony Mason or your situations with the Arenas, etc bad contracts or trading the #5 pick away twice.

What Grunfeld excels at are two things:

a) He knows how to suck up to his owner. You guys can read into the Kohl/Polin/Grunfeld situation on a number of levels. The bottom line is that he's obviously a good insider politician, otherwise he doesn't last nearly as long as he has.

b) Grunfeld is more than adept at working the phones and getting deals done involving overpaid veterans. He engages in a bunch of "activity" involving veterans that you assume he might know what he's doing. Sometimes he blows enough future assets to put together a 43-win team. But in the end, you mistake that "activity" for being a good GM.

Just my two cents. You guys won't get significantly better until you clean house and get a new front office.

[closg00]

" Paulpressy, you are welcome on the Wizards board anytime

I suspected that Grunfeld was a master at sucking it up with ownership and that was the reason for his longevity, long after he would have been fired by most clubs. Your other observations are also held by some of the guys here. You totally nailed-it on Ernie Grunfeld.

[Nivek]

I didn't like the Blatche re-signing either. I thought his "good 3 month stretch" wasn't all that good, and didn't last for 3 months. He was still horribly inefficient -- his averages went up because he played more and shot more.

My biggest problem with Grunfeld is that he's a thoroughly conventional GM. For the most part, he takes the guy any other GM would take. And, he pays the going rate to keep people -- instead of assessing the true value of an asset and paying accordingly.

[MF23]

I don't know, the Caron Butler extension was good. He would have gotten much more money as a FA. To this day I think EG's best move was trading Oak for Camby. To bad it was at the end of Patrick Ewings dominance. I hope he learned a lesson and gets a star next to John Wall. Not a sometimes allstar but a star in the top 15 area.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm an opinionated Milwaukee fan from a few of the other threads.

I enjoy weighing in on these Grunfeld threads every six-months or so because the guy was toxic for our franchise when he was with us.

Both Milwaukee and Washington have (had) one thing in common. A beloved yet completely incompetent and meddling owner. In our case it is Herb Kohl. In your case Abe. Both guys like the idea of "winning now" rather than spending years in the high lotto. Both guys are(were) up in age. Kohl is 76 and I think Abe died at 87 (?)

While it would be easy to blame all of Ernie Grunfeld's bad moves on meddling owners, I think that allows him off the hook. The bottom line is that the guy has been a GM from August 1999 (Bucks) through the current day (Wizards). In those 12.5 years, the guy has really made zero signature moves where you go "Wow, that was a great GM....that move(s) turned our franchise around"

In the draft world, he absolutely sucks. He doesn't find you Westbrooks, Serge Ibaka's or Wesley Matthews. Instead he finds you Marcus Haislips and Nick Young's at best.

In the contract world, he overpays everyone for fear of "losing an asset". Whether it was giving Tim Thomas $68 million to stay in Milwaukee, $20 million along with Scott Williams and a future #1 (Josh Smith) for Anthony Mason or your situations with the Arenas, etc bad contracts or trading the #5 pick away twice.

What Grunfeld excels at are two things:

a) He knows how to suck up to his owner. You guys can read into the Kohl/Polin/Grunfeld situation on a number of levels. The bottom line is that he's obviously a good insider politician, otherwise he doesn't last nearly as long as he has.

b) Grunfeld is more than adept at working the phones and getting deals done involving overpaid veterans. He engages in a bunch of "activity" involving veterans that you assume he might know what he's doing. Sometimes he blows enough future assets to put together a 43-win team. But in the end, you mistake that "activity" for being a good GM.

Just my two cents. You guys won't get significantly better until you clean house and get a new front office.

"Never mistake activity for achievement" John Wooden

(Don't be a stranger to this thread or the Wizards board, paulpressey25.)

[TheBigThree]

EG would have been fired a long time ago if the Eastern Conference wasn't completely awful for that 4 year stretch.

He's compiled a team of morons in a league where that never, ever works. His drafts have been underwhelming at best. I'll give him credit for a few good trades, but that's about it.

I have no confidence he'll pick the right player come the 2012 draft

[mohammed10]

Over-under on GMEG lasting the season?

Anyone?

Anyone?

[closg00]

Over-under on GMEG lasting the season?

Anyone?

Anyone?

Someone with Ted's ear needs to have a sit-down with him otherwise Ernie will be able to talk Ted into firing Flip while he holds-on YET again. Clean House, it is long overdue.

[mohammed10]

Someone with Ted's ear needs to have a sit-down with him otherwise Ernie will be able to talk Ted into firing Flip while he holds-on YET again. Clean House, it is long overdue.

But the real question is who will want to take on this mess?

I nominate Vinny Cerrato for GM!

[Jay81]

Guys..it's a process

[mohammed10]

Guys..it's a process

Yes, and they are playing like a processed meat (SPAM, anyone?)

Where is Ji when you need him?

[w dumseld]

I'm too clueless to figure out how to quote someone. So demerits for that.

Nate, your post was basically correct. The trouble is you are looking at each move individually. EG is supposed to be building a team and his biggest mistake has been assembling talent that doesn't fit or work well together. We have no post players, terrible rebounding and can't shoot. That's a lethally bad combination. We've been obliterated on the boards every game so far this year. We have no low post scoring.

To CCJ, I don't think I explained my view on Flip being inspired very well. When you look at these line-ups and minutes you could conclude that he is a moron and really bad coach but I don't think its that's straight forward. Its like Ben Bernanke saying there is no bubble or subprime is contained. You could conclude that he's totally incompetent and an idiot, or perhaps there is something else going on. Maybe he is just supremely incompetent, but if not, then, well, we all have to work out our own views on such incompetence. In Flip's case, yes, he's not a very good coach. But this year he has been dreadful. I suspect his motivation is two-fold. The first is that if he gets fired he gets to keep the $$$ and move on with his life. The other motivation is that NBA coaching is his career. So he needs to play Lewis and Blatche all those minutes so the league sees that he is playing the top talents as supplied by his GM and folks can say that, yes EG gave him a terribly constructed team and that is why he is losing. The zone defense against Atlanta to start the game, playing Wall and JC together etc. are inspired moves in my view, because they really help us to lose, and on many levels I believe that is Flip's goal. If he is mediocre with this team, the nightmare just drags on. Eventually Ted will have to fire him, and all we Wiz fans can hope for is that he fires EG also, so that we can bring in a better GM who can make the decision on the next coach, the next lottery pick, and how to take this miss-mash of talent and trade quantity for quality and get us some post presence.

Otherwise, we will continue to be horrendously bad.

[JonathanJoseph]

I've long defended many of Grunfeld's basketball moves (despite being very very critical of how he handled the Arenas situation).

But if things do not turn around over the next few weeks, he needs to go so that a new GM can come in and make trades before the trade deadline.

I'm not sure how to explain EVERYTHING looking bad, from Flip to Wall to Blatche to McGee to Booker to Crawford to.......but at the end of the day it looks like new blood and an entirely new culture are needed. We're about 2 weeks from having to blow up EVERYTHING.

[MD's Finest]

Ernie has done some nice things here, early on building a playoff team and also some decent cap clearing and draft pick stocking moves during the rebuild but seeing how he enabled Gil and undermined his coaches, sticking with Blatche for too long and also other bad moves like trading the 5th pick for two average NBA players and drafting The White Hole I think its time to move on. With the cap space we have and probably another year or 2 of lottery picks and probaably needing to rework the roster as a whole anyway its time to hand it over to someone else.

My guess is though Flips head rolls first if we start really bad which looks like we are about to do, like 0-10 bad. Ernie will probably get the rest of the year but if we are bottom 2 or 3 bad I dont see how you can bring him back unless all our young guys start balling.

[Silvie Lysandra]

If you divorce Ernie's moves from any sort of context, they look good. Getting positive value in trades, etc.

When you apply context, you see how awful he is as a GM. He has no clue how to build a team with synergy. No shooting. No post offense. No veterans to ease the transition for their #1 pick. He signs Arenas, yeah, and trades Kwame for Butler, which were good moves. But he failed to realize that a bad defensive team with no size won't win titles. And when he had a chance to start building something new, he traded the #5 pick in the draft for mediocre role players.