Summer 2012 Free Agents Thread - Part II

[LyricalRico]

Depending on what other offers they get, I wouldn't mind splitting the MLE between Lee and Sessions. Probably not realistic to get them at that price, though.

[verbal8]

Crawford is a chucker for sure but the ORTG argument doesn't really mean much to me. when i looked at the top 10 in ORTG last season i laughed.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... op_10.html

Why would the top 10 list in ortg make you laugh?

ORTG pretty clearly is primarily a measure of efficiency rather than output. You have to consider usage in addition to the rating to get the whole picture. Yeah a guy like Deandre Jordan is very effective with what he does offensively. However his low usage rate(11%) indicates he is an elite "garbage man" rather than offensive player.

The rankings do clearly indicate that Chris Paul and LeBron are two of the best offensive players in the game(high usage and Offensive rating).

[Rafael122]

I'm on the fence with Okafor and Ariza trade. Always have been, but it wasn't the worse move this team could have made, and looking at the first week of free agency, it probably won't even rank in the top 10 of worse moves anyway. Considering how much they are being paid, they either fall in line with what bigs make, or a little under what others are making.

Something else I am thinking about, Fields getting 9 million in the last year of his deal, no matter how you look at it, I wouldn't be surprised if Ariza opts OUT of his contract so that he can get a new one, especially if he has a very solid year. Jameer Nelson left 8 million on the table, it is entirely possible.

I am still against the trade, but seeing what has happened in Free Agency I am not as strongly against it. We won't really know if the trade was bad or good until the season. I think the key to whether the trade was bad or good will be Ariza.

If he plays well enough to opt out(or be traded), then the trade will look like a positive. If he doesn't the trade will likely be a negative, but maybe not horrible move. If both players opt out, that means the Wizards got 2 productive players for $7 million and a first round pick. I think that has to be considered a good deal.

I think Ariza will be the most likely to opt out, younger, could probably get another 4 year deal from a team. Okafor isn't gonna make $14 mil per year in his next contract, unless the guy blows up

[tontoz]

Crawford is a chucker for sure but the ORTG argument doesn't really mean much to me. when i looked at the top 10 in ORTG last season i laughed.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... op_10.html

Why would the top 10 list in ortg make you laugh?

Because Deandre Jordan ranks ahead of Lebron. That tells me right there the stat isn't worth much.

Get a bunch of low usage high efficiency guys like Ryan Anderson, Noah etc on the same team and they would struggle to score 90 because nobody could break down the defense.

[fishercob]

Lots of offseason dominoes yet to fall. But based on what we have seen so far, Ted's blog posts about the perils of free agency and the value of certainty are ringing true to me. You can lose big playing the free agency game. See: Colangelo, Brian and Cuban, Mark.

The playing field is not even in free agency. Teams dealing from positions of strength (glamour franchises or glamour markets) have an advantage over the others. You can also plan for everything and not control the fact that Steve Nash wants to be close to his children or that Eric Gordon just doesn't want to play in New Orleans. The Hornets are agree to pay 4/$58 for a guy that doesn't want to play for them. Think about that.

Letting your guys get to free agency carries huge risk as well. Indy has to max out HIbbert to keep him. They just gave George Hill 5/$40M -- big mistake, IMO. This Asik/Fields loophole can throw a huge wrench into your longterm cap management plans. Look for the Wizards to continue to make decisions on guys before they hit free agency and either extend them or if they can't/don't want to, trading them (Javale).

[Nivek]

Crawford is a chucker for sure but the ORTG argument doesn't really mean much to me. when i looked at the top 10 in ORTG last season i laughed.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... op_10.html

Why would the top 10 list in ortg make you laugh?

ORTG pretty clearly is primarily a measure of efficiency rather than output. You have to consider usage in addition to the rating to get the whole picture. Yeah a guy like Deandre Jordan is very effective with what he does offensively. However his low usage rate(11%) indicates he is an elite "garbage man" rather than offensive player.

The rankings do clearly indicate that Chris Paul and LeBron are two of the best offensive players in the game(high usage and Offensive rating).

ORTG is EXPLICITLY a measure of efficiency. That's what it is -- a comprehensive measure of offensive efficiency. It's better than true shooting percentage for overall offensive efficiency because TS% is strictly a shooting measure. Ortg accounts for turnovers, assists and offensive rebounding.

And -- just worth mentioning -- my post about Crawford's woeful ortg included usage.

[GhostsOfGil]

Mike Lee just reported that The Wizards "dont plan on using the MLE to sign anyone to take away minutes from Crawford/Beal.”

So an MLE deal for Courtney Lee seems very unlikely.

[nate33]

Mike Lee just reported that The Wizards "dont plan on using the MLE to sign anyone to take away minutes from Crawford/Beal.”

So an MLE deal for Courtney Lee seems very unlikely.

I just assumed that was a misprint or that Mike Lee was misinformed. I find it hard to believe that management is THAT stupid. I can understand if we don't want to spend the full MLE on a guard, but the rationale cannot possibly be the concern that he would take minutes from Crawford.

[GhostsOfGil]

Mike Lee just reported that The Wizards "dont plan on using the MLE to sign anyone to take away minutes from Crawford/Beal.”

So an MLE deal for Courtney Lee seems very unlikely.

I just assumed that was a misprint or that Mike Lee was misinformed. I find it hard to believe that management is THAT stupid. I can understand if we don't want to spend the full MLE on a guard, but the rationale cannot possibly be the concern that he would take minutes from Crawford.

Yup.. Exactly why I bolded the Crawford part. Hard to believe Crawford is the guy keeping us from adding depth at the 2.

[tontoz]

ORTG is EXPLICITLY a measure of efficiency. That's what it is -- a comprehensive measure of offensive efficiency. It's better than true shooting percentage for overall offensive efficiency because TS% is strictly a shooting measure. Ortg accounts for turnovers, assists and offensive rebounding.

And -- just worth mentioning -- my post about Crawford's woeful ortg included usage.

Whoever came up with this stat seriously dropped the ball when he came up with the name. First of all he chose a name that was already taken. Secondly the name doesn't describe what it is actually measuring. Calling it offensive rating leads people to believe that it is a measure of a players offensive ability. Why not just call it offensive efficiency?

TS% may be just a shooting measure but at least people know what it is measuring.

[tontoz]

Mike Lee just reported that The Wizards "dont plan on using the MLE to sign anyone to take away minutes from Crawford/Beal.”

So an MLE deal for Courtney Lee seems very unlikely.

I just assumed that was a misprint or that Mike Lee was misinformed. I find it hard to believe that management is THAT stupid. I can understand if we don't want to spend the full MLE on a guard, but the rationale cannot possibly be the concern that he would take minutes from Crawford.

Yup.. Exactly why I bolded the Crawford part. Hard to believe Crawford is the guy keeping us from adding depth at the 2.

I doubt that he is. What should keep them from adding depth at the 2 are limited resources and gaping holes at the 3 and backup pg.

[Nivek]

ORTG is EXPLICITLY a measure of efficiency. That's what it is -- a comprehensive measure of offensive efficiency. It's better than true shooting percentage for overall offensive efficiency because TS% is strictly a shooting measure. Ortg accounts for turnovers, assists and offensive rebounding.

And -- just worth mentioning -- my post about Crawford's woeful ortg included usage.

Whoever came up with this stat seriously dropped the ball when he came up with the name. First of all he chose a name that was already taken. Secondly the name doesn't describe what it is actually measuring. Calling it offensive rating leads people to believe that it is a measure of a players offensive ability. Why not just call it offensive efficiency?

TS% may be just a shooting measure but at least people know what it is measuring.

Dean Oliver is the one who developed the stat. The name may actually make sense since it effectively measures the same thing. Offensive rating at the team level measure the team's points per possession. Offensive rating at the individual level measures an individual's points produced per possession. In both cases, multiplied by 100 for ease of use.

I could see an argument for naming it something different, but I think the name is okay. There might be some ways I can be clearer when I'm using individual offensive rating -- iortg, for example.

[GhostsOfGil]

Anyone have a good site to view production by position? 82games seemed to stop updating their database and I'm curious to see how Lee faired at the 3 spot.

[jivelikenice]

Mike Lee just reported that The Wizards "dont plan on using the MLE to sign anyone to take away minutes from Crawford/Beal.”

So an MLE deal for Courtney Lee seems very unlikely.

I think Mike Lee tweeted this before he reported their interest. Frankly, he finds out what their plans are the same time we do.....

[verbal8]

Anyone have a good site to view production by position? 82games seemed to stop updating their database and I'm curious to see how Lee faired at the 3 spot.

From what 82games has it looks like he played almost completely at the 2 spot with the Rockets.

[tontoz]

Dean Oliver is the one who developed the stat. The name may actually make sense since it effectively measures the same thing. Offensive rating at the team level measure the team's points per possession. Offensive rating at the individual level measures an individual's points produced per possession. In both cases, multiplied by 100 for ease of use.

I could see an argument for naming it something different, but I think the name is okay. There might be some ways I can be clearer when I'm using individual offensive rating -- iortg, for example.

So the team measure is measuring the total team points scored when the player is on the court, even if the player isn't involved in the possession. Individual ortg is only measuring the points scored when the player is actually involved. Right?

The bottom line is that ORTG needs to be combined with a players actually production to get an accurate read on a players offensive ability.

[J-Ves]

An off-season of Lee and C. Martin would be solid in my book. Crawford is trash and Beal shouldn't be expected to start at 19. We could go with this floor spacing lineup when the offense struggles:

Wall
Lee or Beal
C.Martin or Lee
Nene (heres our stretch 4 )
Seriphin

Its not a lineup that should be used too often (rebounding would be weak), but all 5 players have offensive ability, which is something Wall never has had in his two years here.

[Nivek]

Dean Oliver is the one who developed the stat. The name may actually make sense since it effectively measures the same thing. Offensive rating at the team level measure the team's points per possession. Offensive rating at the individual level measures an individual's points produced per possession. In both cases, multiplied by 100 for ease of use.

I could see an argument for naming it something different, but I think the name is okay. There might be some ways I can be clearer when I'm using individual offensive rating -- iortg, for example.

So the team measure is measuring the total team points scored when the player is on the court, even if the player isn't involved in the possession.

If team offensive rating is being reported in an on/off split, yes. The numbers at basketball-reference are straight team offensive rating. The entire team's points divided by the entire team's possessions. Regardless of who's on the floor. Various sites have the on/off splits, in which case your statement is correct.

Individual ortg is only measuring the points scored when the player is actually involved. Right?

Yes.

The bottom line is that ORTG needs to be combined with a players actually production to get an accurate read on a players offensive ability.

The key stat to pair with individual offensive rating is usage. Which I included in my discussion of Crawford's iortg.

[GhostsOfGil]

Anyone have a good site to view production by position? 82games seemed to stop updating their database and I'm curious to see how Lee faired at the 3 spot.

From what 82games has it looks like he played almost completely at the 2 spot with the Rockets.

Not sure how accurate that database is though

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If we amnesty Blatche, wouldn't we have the MLE available? If so, I'd absolutely love bringing in a guy like Ramon Sessions (who will probably have a long list of potential suitors).

Oh I thought we ad it whether we amnesty him or not...what are they going after courtney lee with? Thought it was the MLE. For the record don't think we'll get him competition is strong. His hometown Indiana pacers, a solid bulls, clippers, mavs....all teams intent on making deep playoff runs

What I would like to see is the Wizards amnesty Blatche. Get Sessions! He had a 44 pt game once and a triple double another time. Do NOT go after Courtney Lee.

Lee is not that much better than Martin. Right now, I would take Cartier over him. IMO a confident Morris Almond will score just as well or better, too. What Lee has done is succeed in having a career.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eco01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ica01.html

If you look at the last three seasons' PER, WS/48, TS%, and eFG%; Martin has done better than Lee. I respect and agree with BruceO that Courtney Lee can hit the corner three and defend, but I don't think he's any better defensively than Martin or Almond (from what I saw those 4 games).

What the Wizard need to do is sign Sessions, trade Crawford, and only hold onto Mack as a deep reserve. Shelvin was competitive at Butler. I like his steady play but he's not a good PG and he's not a great scorer. He would be a guy I would cut to make room for Martin and James Singleton.

I also TRULY BELIEVE Almond is a success waiting to happen. I would keep Martin because that guy can play. I would also expect Almond to prove he belongs, too.

As much as I am biased towards Mo Almond, the guy who can REALLY HELP THE WIZARDS is Ramon Sessions. He would be an ideal backup PG for Wall because he's strong where John is weakest.