Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[prime1time]

Ok, so here's another question. What position do we look at to improve this team? If it's not center, we have Rui at the 4, Sf? Pg? We have Troy at 3. After the original Big 3 fiasco with Otto, Beal and John and letting Otto and Oubre go for nothing. I just feel like we have to be more proactive and moving on from guys before we give them long term deals that are bad values. We aren't even close to being competitive now, so the only players I really look at not being movable are Beal and Rui.

[prime1time]

https://empirewritesback.com/2019/11/26/new-york-knicks-look-trade-struggling-forward-kevin-knox/
A long shot, but what do people think about Kevin Knox? As bad as the Wizards are, the Knicks are even worse. I really have no clue what direction that franchise is headed in and I think a lot of there young players suffer because of it. The numbers aren't great obviously, but what did people think about Knox coming out of college? Maybe a change of scenery could do him some good.

[nate33]

Ok, so here's another question. What position do we look at to improve this team? If it's not center, we have Rui at the 4, Sf? Pg? We have Troy at 3. After the original Big 3 fiasco with Otto, Beal and John and letting Otto and Oubre go for nothing. I just feel like we have to be more proactive and moving on from guys before we give them long term deals that are bad values. We aren't even close to being competitive now, so the only players I really look at not being movable are Beal and Rui.

Good question.

In order of need, I'd say it's SF, PG, C, PF, SG. But the reality is, SG is the only position we know with stone cold certainty that we're set for the next 2.5 years.

SF is our biggest position of need, and the nice thing is that we can add one without really impacting Troy's development. Troy can play any guard or wing position. Even if we landed the next Paul George, there are still 30 minutes available for Troy if he earns them.

I'd say the next need is PG. They usually take a few years to develop and Wall only has 3 years left on his deal. During the next 2 years, this new PG would fit in as a 3rd guard, leaving potentially only Wall's final year as a year with not enough minutes to go around (and by then, Wall might be movable). Also, obtaining a PG would complete the rebuild in that we would have a full starting rotation of guys Beal's age or younger.

After that, I'm not sure if PF or C is a greater need. The jury is still out on whether any of Rui, Bryant or Hachimura will ultimately pan out to be above-average starters. For now, I'd be highly inclined to avoid drafting a PF or C with our 2020 1st unless we had another deal in mind to address the redundancy.

[nate33]

https://empirewritesback.com/2019/11/26/new-york-knicks-look-trade-struggling-forward-kevin-knox/
A long shot, but what do people think about Kevin Knox? As bad as the Wizards are, the Knicks are even worse. I really have no clue what direction that franchise is headed in and I think a lot of there young players suffer because of it. The numbers aren't great obviously, but what did people think about Knox coming out of college? Maybe a change of scenery could do him some good.

I'd be interested in taking a flyer on him, but I'm not sure how much value I'd give up in a trade. He's still very young and shooting wings are always useful as players or assets. Problem is, I think it would take a Mo Wagner or Thomas Bryant in return to get him, and I'm not willing to do that at the moment. I suppose such a deal might make more sense if we somehow obtained a stud defensive center.

[payitforward]

Why ever would we give anything at all for Kevin Knox? He is a mess.

As to "shooting wings," Knox scores below average points at a below average TS%. Doesn't do anything else particularly well either.

The Knicks have one player on their roster I would love to have: Mitchell Robinson. Other than Robinson, there's not a player on their roster who would be a really useful addition.

[payitforward]

Ok, so here's another question. What position do we look at to improve this team? If it's not center, we have Rui at the 4, Sf? Pg? We have Troy at 3. After the original Big 3 fiasco with Otto, Beal and John and letting Otto and Oubre go for nothing. I just feel like we have to be more proactive and moving on from guys before we give them long term deals that are bad values. We aren't even close to being competitive now, so the only players I really look at not being movable are Beal and Rui.

Good question.

In order of need, I'd say it's SF, PG, C, PF, SG. But the reality is, SG is the only position we know with stone cold certainty that we're set for the next 2.5 years.

SF is our biggest position of need, and the nice thing is that we can add one without really impacting Troy's development. Troy can play any guard or wing position. Even if we landed the next Paul George, there are still 30 minutes available for Troy if he earns them.

I'd say the next need is PG. They usually take a few years to develop and Wall only has 3 years left on his deal. During the next 2 years, this new PG would fit in as a 3rd guard, leaving potentially only Wall's final year as a year with not enough minutes to go around (and by then, Wall might be movable). Also, obtaining a PG would complete the rebuild in that we would have a full starting rotation of guys Beal's age or younger.

After that, I'm not sure if PF or C is a greater need. The jury is still out on whether any of Rui, Bryant or Hachimura will ultimately pan out to be above-average starters. For now, I'd be highly inclined to avoid drafting a PF or C with our 2020 1st unless we had another deal in mind to address the redundancy.

I don't usually think about this kind of issue in this way -- just acquire the very best players you can, at the highest value contracts possible, & you have assets to trade to achieve roster balance.

That said, I certainly wouldn't be specifically looking for a Center right now. PG... absolutely! I wouldn't give more for less of a player b/c of his position, but if the value is right then a young PG does make sense for us for obvious reasons.

OTOH, anyone who thinks that, b/c "we have Rui at the 4," we are somehow "set" at that position -- that we *know* who our starter will be going forward -- is selling himself a bill of goods. Rui Hachimura may turn out to be an outstanding NBA player. He has a shot to do that. But, it is by no means certain. In fact, there's not a whole lot to indicate it so far.

Obviously you draw no conclusions about rookies who've played under 500 minutes. But, for sure, you don't draw positive conclusions from the unimpressive overall level of play that Rui has established so far!

IOW, by no means are we set at the 4: in fact, it's our weakest position at present. We don't have a known good player at that spot signed for next year. Not one. Let alone a backup. Let alone someone to compete at the spot.

[nate33]

There's an interesting thread on the Trade Board with Utah fans trying to assess Rudy Gobert's trade value. He is a free agent in 2021 and Utah fans seem really worried that he'll bolt, so they're looking to shop him now. And they seem resigned to the fact that they won't get fair value for him.

Gobert would solve a lot of problems on this roster.

Would you trade Bryant and our 2020 pick for him? Or Bryant plus Hachimura? I would. There's a risk we'd lose Gobert in 2021 as well, but what are the chances that Gobert could join a team who has both max cap room and a roster better than Wall + Beal + Bertans + Brown + Wagner + one of Hachimura/2020 pick?

Assuming we trade Bryant and our 2020 pick, our lineup next year could be:

PG Wall/Ish
SG Beal/McRae
SF Brown/Bertans
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Gobert/Wagner

The big problem is that Utah probably won't do that midseason because they're still in contention. Not to mention that by giving us Gobert, they devalue the 2020 pick.

[pcbothwel]

There's an interesting thread on the Trade Board with Utah fans trying to assess Rudy Gobert's trade value. He is a free agent in 2021 and Utah fans seem really worried that he'll bolt, so they're looking to shop him now. And they seem resigned to the fact that they won't get fair value for him.

Gobert would solve a lot of problems on this roster.

Would you trade Bryant and our 2020 pick for him? Or Bryant plus Hachimura? I would. There's a risk we'd lose Gobert in 2021 as well, but what are the chances that Gobert could join a team who has both max cap room and a roster better than Wall + Beal + Bertans + Brown + Wagner + one of Hachimura/2020 pick?

Assuming we trade Bryant and our 2020 pick, our lineup next year could be:

PG Wall/Ish
SG Beal/McRae
SF Brown/Bertans
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Gobert/Wagner

The big problem is that Utah probably won't do that midseason because they're still in contention. Not to mention that by giving us Gobert, they devalue the 2020 pick.

Tough call, but I'd say no.
Bryants production, age, and contract make him easily worth a late lotto pick. So we'd be paying two lotto picks and cap space (I.e. we wouldnt be sending bad salary back) for 1.5 years of the most devalued position in the NBA and one where we are already strong at.

i guess the better way to phrase it would be: What could Bryant and a 2020 top 10 pick net us? I believe it would be of higher value than Gobert.
I guess I dont see much of gap between Gobert and say... Bam or Noel

That said, I would open to selling high on Bryant or Mo for the right draft pick.

[Mojo Amok]

I'd be really interested in Gobert and value him quite highly, but it would be tough to send out much of a package without solid intel that he'd be interested in resigning with us.

If I theoretically had a very high level of assurance that he'd stay - which may be impossible to know in practice - I'd send out a pretty sweet package for him. I'd rather keep Rui and send out other incentives as I see Gobert covering up a lot of Rui's weaknesses.

But, swapping Gobert by Bryant and Wall for IT? I mean, it's hard to see the team defense and defensive rebounding being worse than middle of the pack. If you're a top 5 offense and average on the boards and defensively you should be a top 12-ish team league-wide. And if you manage to get that defense up to 8th or 10th or so, you should be a threat to come out of the conference, which is as good as it gets in the East right now.

However, that third max deal on the books could get uncomfortable in the long run, so that might push me away from it once I'm looking at a spreadsheet.

[verbal8]

After a crazy off-season, it has been silent on the trade front.
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/256301/NBA-Experiencing-Longest-Trade-Drought-Since-1968

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

After a crazy off-season, it has been silent on the trade front.
https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/256301/NBA-Experiencing-Longest-Trade-Drought-Since-1968

From past seasons, a lot happens after December 15th.

[payitforward]

There's an interesting thread on the Trade Board with Utah fans trying to assess Rudy Gobert's trade value. He is a free agent in 2021 and Utah fans seem really worried that he'll bolt, so they're looking to shop him now. And they seem resigned to the fact that they won't get fair value for him.

Gobert would solve a lot of problems on this roster.

Would you trade Bryant and our 2020 pick for him? Or Bryant plus Hachimura? I would. There's a risk we'd lose Gobert in 2021 as well, but what are the chances that Gobert could join a team who has both max cap room and a roster better than Wall + Beal + Bertans + Brown + Wagner + one of Hachimura/2020 pick?

Assuming we trade Bryant and our 2020 pick, our lineup next year could be:

PG Wall/Ish
SG Beal/McRae
SF Brown/Bertans
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Gobert/Wagner

The big problem is that Utah probably won't do that midseason because they're still in contention. Not to mention that by giving us Gobert, they devalue the 2020 pick.

Anyone would love to have Rudy Gobert -- the guy is obviously a great player. But, there are so many ways in which this trade, though fun to think about, could fail that, to me at least, it doesn't make sense.

For one thing, wouldn't the first version of the trade add @ $17m to our salary load this year & more than that next year? Throwing us way over the tax limit in both years? Even if we send out Hachimura I don't think the tax would be avoidable.

Plus, keeping Bertans won't be all that easy even without adding a $26m player next year. With the 1st version of the trade, you're at $114m for 8 guys next year: could we sign Bertans if it took us to $130m for 9 guys? The version w/ Rui going out isn't much different financially.

&, the lineup you list is subject to many, many questions: what if John Wall comes back at a lower level of productivity than his best year? Which was 3 seasons ago after all. Actually... next year, that will be 4 seasons ago! Yikes! Now subtract Bertans....

Plus, you are also counting on Wagner as if it was a given that he was a long-term productive player. It isn't.

Moreover, if McRae continues to play well & heavy minutes, he too will be difficult to re-sign. If Bertans is back, let's just say impossible. Or, his production may drop as the current season goes along, in which case the lineup you list will be worse than it would be today (all the more w/o Bertans).

Not to mention that Rui is listed as if his play was a known, high-quality factor. We have hopes for him, but that is by no means something to be counted on.

On top of all that, you are rolling the dice on Gobert staying with a team that has very few for sure assets. Maybe he would... who knows? Where would we be if he didn't?

Maybe I'm totally wrong, but it seems obvious to me that the Wizards are a rebuilding team. We can't proceed by signing a single super-expensive star. We just aren't that good up and down the lineup that it would make a big difference. Other people don't seem to view things that way.

Hey, we have never been a really good team. Our very very best ever season climbed to the awesome height of 49 wins in a weak Eastern conference -- & that team had Otto Porter at his very very best. We got to R2 but not out of it.

We need to build slowly & carefully. & we need to believe in the assets we acquire by good fortune. Give them the chance to prove themselves or fail.

nate -- seems to me that you were a lot higher on Thomas Bryant a few months ago than you are now. Am I wrong?

Bryant will never be Gobert, who is one of the top 4-5 players in the game. But, he is definitely good. Very good. & only 22.

[nate33]

Anyone would love to have Rudy Gobert -- the guy is obviously a great player. But, there are so many ways in which this trade, though fun to think about, could fail that, to me at least, it doesn't make sense.

For one thing, wouldn't the first version of the trade add @ $17m to our salary load this year & more than that next year? Throwing us way over the tax limit in both years? Even if we send out Hachimura I don't think the tax would be avoidable.

Plus, keeping Bertans won't be all that easy even without adding a $26m player next year. With the 1st version of the trade, you're at $114m for 8 guys next year: could we sign Bertans if it took us to $130m for 9 guys? The version w/ Rui going out isn't much different financially.

&, the lineup you list is subject to many, many questions: what if John Wall comes back at a lower level of productivity than his best year? Which was 3 seasons ago after all. Actually... next year, that will be 4 seasons ago! Yikes! Now subtract Bertans....

Fair points. Adding Gobert would make the tax situation tight. We could probably manage next season, but the year after, Gobert gets a new deal and the year after that, Beal gets a raise. Those would be two brutal luxtax years until we finally get relief in 2023 when Wall comes off the books.

Plus, you are also counting on Wagner as if it was a given that he was a long-term productive player. It isn't.

I think it's a given that he'll be a useful backup in a low-minute role - particularly as a change of pace floor stretcher. Wagner is already a pretty useful player in a limited minute role. The question is whether or not he can play more minutes, given his foul rate. But that's not an issue if he's Gobert's backup.

Moreover, if McRae continues to play well & heavy minutes, he too will be difficult to re-sign. If Bertans is back, let's just say impossible. Or, his production may drop as the current season goes along, in which case the lineup you list will be worse than it would be today (all the more w/o Bertans).

McRae would be our 4th guard. If he costs much more than the vet minimum (which is far from certain given his age and pedigree) he can be replaced with some other vet-minimum guy. I certainly wouldn't have McRae be the make or break factor in this decision.

nate -- seems to me that you were a lot higher on Thomas Bryant a few months ago than you are now. Am I wrong?

Bryant will never be Gobert, who is one of the top 4-5 players in the game. But, he is definitely good. Very good. & only 22.

I'm a little disappointed in his lack of development defensively. I wouldn't say that I'm no longer "high" on him, but I'm starting to get the feeling that he has a ceiling and that ceiling isn't good enough for us to be a real contender. I'm not a hater though. I still think he'll be quite good and a real value contract for the next 3 years. I wouldn't trade him straight up for Drummond for example. (Drummond is a bit better, but not for 4 times the money.) But Gobert is a different animal. That guy instantly makes you a top 5 defense when he is on the floor.

[payitforward]

Ok, thanks for the clarification. I don't share your disappointment in Bryant -- both in that I am not worried about his shooting efficiency having slipped slightly (TS% down from .674 to .625) while the rest of his box score numbers are actually a tiny bit up overall, & above all not in the sense that I could not think of him as standing in the way of the team contending for a title.

Biggest reason for the latter is that there is so very much else standing in the way of the Wizards contending! An extraordinary number of things.

Yes, Gobert is unique -- about as good as it gets. It's interesting that 2 of the very very best players in the league are Greek & French! Never thought of that until now!

Actually... I think we might as well make that 3, don't you agree? With the 3d guy being Slovenian!

[payitforward]

Here's a question: is there any player on the Wizards whom we should not trade straight up for Luka Doncic? (which I guess amounts to "would we not be smart to trade Beal for Doncic? I.e. if we could")

If you would go for the above, here's a further question: is there any player on the Wizards we would not add in order to trade 2 players for Doncic?

Leave aside what's a legal trade & what isn't -- just a thought experiment.

[nate33]

Here's a question: is there any player on the Wizards whom we should not trade straight up for Luka Doncic? (which I guess amounts to "would we not be smart to trade Beal for Doncic? I.e. if we could")

If you would go for the above, here's a further question: is there any player on the Wizards we would not add in order to trade 2 players for Doncic?

Leave aside what's a legal trade & what isn't -- just a thought experiment.

I would trade any combination of our players for Doncic without hesitation. Doncic is a franchise player, a certain HOFer if he avoids injury, and he actually has the potential to be best player ever. (I doubt he'll be best ever, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.)

I think the only team in the league who would think twice about trading their best player straight up for Doncic is Milwaukee.

[payitforward]

How about any of the rest of you?

[Illmatic12]

Ok, so here's another question. What position do we look at to improve this team? If it's not center, we have Rui at the 4, Sf? Pg? We have Troy at 3. After the original Big 3 fiasco with Otto, Beal and John and letting Otto and Oubre go for nothing. I just feel like we have to be more proactive and moving on from guys before we give them long term deals that are bad values. We aren't even close to being competitive now, so the only players I really look at not being movable are Beal and Rui.

Who says we have Troy at the 3? That’s certainly not set in stone at this point.

That’s not to say I don’t think TBJ can/will be a good player, but so far he isn’t assimilating well with the starting lineup and may be better served in the 6th man role where he has more on-ball freedom.

I think we most desperately need a traditional-sized starting SF who is lower usage, preferably with elite defensive potential. A player in the mold of OG Anunoby is the ideal of what I would be looking for. This is the area I’d target in this years draft.

The other position I’m most uncomfortable with longterm is starting C. Bryant is a fine player but strikes me as more of an “82 game” player than a “16 game player”.. If we are competing for playoffs next season I’d prefer to have a different kind of center (one who’s a more active/imposing defender) as the frontline starter.

[prime1time]

Here's a question: is there any player on the Wizards whom we should not trade straight up for Luka Doncic? (which I guess amounts to "would we not be smart to trade Beal for Doncic? I.e. if we could")

If you would go for the above, here's a further question: is there any player on the Wizards we would not add in order to trade 2 players for Doncic?

Leave aside what's a legal trade & what isn't -- just a thought experiment.

The only argument to be made for not doing this trade would be the emotional connection our franchise has to Beal and Wall. Doncic is the most valuable player in the NBA right now. Are there any players that you wouldn't trade for Doncic straight up? But this is all moot, Doncic isn't going anywhere.

[DCZards]

Who says we have Troy at the 3? That’s certainly not set in stone at this point.

That’s not to say I don’t think TBJ can/will be a good player, but so far he isn’t assimilating well with the starting lineup and may be better served in the 6th man role where he has more on-ball freedom.

I think we most desperately need a traditional-sized starting SF who is lower usage, preferably with elite defensive potential. A player in the mold of OG Anunoby is the ideal of what I would be looking for. This is the area I’d target in this years draft.

The other position I’m most uncomfortable with longterm is starting C. Bryant is a fine player but strikes me as more of an “82 game” player than a “16 game player”.. If we are competing for playoffs next season I’d prefer to have a different kind of center (one who’s a more active/imposing defender) as the frontline starter.

Troy's offensive skills are best suited for an offense with plenty of ball movement where he gets to handle the ball a lot and is teamed with a PG who looks for and finds open cutters. That's the exact opposite of the kind of offense that's run when Brown is on the court with IT, which is most of the time.

Of course, Troy also needs to shoot better.