Rui Hachimura 2.0

[doclinkin]

There's nothing wrong with saying we should move on from Rui. But analysis needs to be grounded in reality. 1) Find a 4 who compliments Beal and Porzingis better than Rui does 2) Make the argument why even coming off the bench is unacceptable 3) what precisely you would do with him I.e. trade/release/let his contract expire etc.

Reality is where Rui crashes into that ground. Check Rui in various line-ups. Sort by net points. Scroll down to 2-man combinations for the largest sample size. Notice a trend. There is literally nobody in the top ten pairing of Rui + another player where the team scores more points than the opponent with him on the floor.

Lets look at Kristaps Porzingis. Adding Rui next to him surely makes the team better. Yes? Nope. 2 of his worst 3 lines feature Rui.. So does his 2nd best, but when you scroll down to 3-man, 2-man combos you notice Rui drops to the worse lines again.

You can play that exercise with each player on the roster. Scroll down to 2-man combos. Corey Kispert: 3rd worst 2-man line. KCP: worst. Neto: worst. Kuzma: worst. Etc. I can put the rest of the links in if you want me to.

There are a few where Rui is not the absolute worst of the players they paired with, but none where the pairing is actually good. There is literally no other player on the team who had a negative net point total with EVERY 2 man combo they are in (top 10 by minutes). That is what they call a trend.

Basketball is played at both ends. And scoring is only part of it. Your analysis isolates the offensive end and suggests the team will be better when Rui is on court because he can efficiently hit an open 3 on low volume. So far that hasn't been the case. Statistically that is wishful thinking. Whatever Rui adds in improved team shooting (+.008 apparently) he gives up in the other team shooting better, rebounding better, etc.

So my answers:
1) Rhymes with "any". For Beal anyway. Porzingis' data is murkier since it is mixed with Dallas minutes. Though Gill is uniformly in the plus column. Maybe Gill deserves more minutes?

2) Yes, off the bench.

3) If Rui has trade value for teams who covet his potential more than his production, then listen to offers. If not, yes pick up his option and see if his numbers jump next year. Or if teams offer something in trade, or if he is an add-on in salary filler. If his numbers don't show improvement, yeah, no, I wouldn't extend him beyond the rookie deal. Personally. My opinion.

[Frichuela]

The right thing to do would be to trade Rui for a guard in the off-season. However, it’s highly likely any trade is vetoed from the very top. Why? Simply, the appeal of revenue from Japan. Terd will not allow it…which is very frustrating.

[nate33]

We all see the talent with Rui. He has the perfect NBA physique. He is athletic. He is coordinated and skilled. He seems like a coachable guy, not a jerk. And now, we can see that he is actually an extremely good standstill 3P shooter. Surely that's a foundation for an exceptional NBA player.

But, alas, I find myself siding with NatP4, PIF and Doc on this debate. I've watched him for 3 years and still see a guy with very poor basketball IQ. He has no instincts for the game at all. Everything he does is deliberate and conscious. A guy like that just cannot be a primary offensive threat. Defenses are too smart and they will double team him and force him to make a bad decision or take an inefficient shot. The league is littered with the corpses of offensive talents and genuine physical specimens who never became plus players because of their lack of bball IQ and playmaking - guys like Jeff Green, Marvin Williams, Thomas Robinson, Rudy Gay, Derrick Williams, Marvin Bagley and Cam Reddish.

If you are not a primary offensive threat, you must be a very good secondary offensive threat. Rui certainly has the ability to do this with his 3-point shooting and his ability to post up guards in switches. That's a start. But the real issue here is that secondary offensive threats are a dime-a-dozen. It's not hard to find 6-8 dudes who can catch-and-shoot. Heck, Anthony Gill was obtained as a walk-on and costs the vet minimum. To be a starting-caliber secondary offensive threat, you must also be a very good defender. And by very good, I mean a true difference maker - not just a guy who can guard his man adequately. If Rui wants to be a quality starter while lacking playmaking instincts, he needs to defend like OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Andrew Wiggins or Aaron Gordon. He needs to be a guy who can switch 1 through 5, and be disruptive as a team defender. If he can't do that, then he is "just a guy". Sure, he can fill out an NBA rotation as an 8th man, but that is not a guy who you pay big money to keep on a roster.

There was a brief moment last season when it looked like Rui realized that his path to success was to dedicate himself to defense, but I haven't seen that from him all season. His lack of defensive intensity is a real red flag and it shows in the numbers that Doc posted above.

I think it's worth it to keep him around for another offseason and try and groom him as a defensive ace, but I'm not particularly confident in it panning out. I suspect that a best case scenario for Rui is that he figures things out in year 6 or 7 like Andrew Wiggins did and becomes a useful player on his 2nd or 3rd team after being an overpriced disappointment on his second contract. I don't want to be the team that is disappointed that they paid him big money on his second contract.

If Rui doesn't radically improve defensively early next season, I would shop him at the Trade Deadline.

[badinage]

It’s time to squash this business of — Ted won’t allow him to be traded because he’s too enamored of the $$ from the Japanese market. What evidence — actual evidence — is there to support this? Or to support the even more speculative notion that Ted pushed Tommy to draft him because of the potential $$ of a Japanese market? Tell me. Show me.

[nate33]

There's nothing wrong with saying we should move on from Rui. But analysis needs to be grounded in reality. 1) Find a 4 who compliments Beal and Porzingis better than Rui does 2) Make the argument why even coming off the bench is unacceptable 3) what precisely you would do with him I.e. trade/release/let his contract expire etc.

1. Anthony Gill. I'm not saying that we should start Gill. My point is that it's not really that hard to find stretch 4's these days if all you want is adequate standstill shooting. But a difference-making stretch 4 needs to be much better than that. A difference-making stretch 4 must be an elite defender and/or rebounder while also shooting efficiently from 3. And preferably, they get up more than 5 3PAs/36 minutes.

2. He will cost too much on his next contract (given his pedigree as a lotto pick and the general rule that the league overvalues scoring relative to defense when it comes to salary).

3. Keep him in the offseason. See if he can dedicate himself to defense next year. If not, move him at the Trade Deadline, probably to a contending team who would value a backup stretch 4 who isn't a defensive sieve on a contract that won't exacerbate their luxtax situation.

[gesa2]

Nate summarizes Rui really well. Your list of comps is really useful too
“The league is littered with the corpses of offensive talents and genuine physical specimens who never became plus players because of their lack of bball IQ and playmaking - guys like Jeff Green, Marvin Williams, Thomas Robinson, Rudy Gay, Derrick Williams, Marvin Bagley and Cam Reddish. “
Several of these guys were very useful players, (Green, Williams and Gay at least) but none on their second contract.

[nate33]

Nate summarizes Rui really well. Your list of comps is really useful too
“The league is littered with the corpses of offensive talents and genuine physical specimens who never became plus players because of their lack of bball IQ and playmaking - guys like Jeff Green, Marvin Williams, Thomas Robinson, Rudy Gay, Derrick Williams, Marvin Bagley and Cam Reddish. “
Several of these guys were very useful players, (Green, Williams and Gay at least) but none on their second contract.

Yeah. I'm not saying that Rui should be out of the league or anything. I just think he will be an overpriced "empty stats" guy for a few more years before he makes the transition to useful, low-usage, defensive role player later in his career (if he ever does).

There are role models for this. I'm thinking of guys like Andrew Wiggins, Thad Young and Marvin Williams. It usually takes multiple years of failure and criticism in a "star" role before they figure things out and commit themselves to being a "role player".

[doclinkin]

It’s time to squash this business of — Ted won’t allow him to be traded because he’s too enamored of the $$ from the Japanese market. What evidence — actual evidence — is there to support this? Or to support the even more speculative notion that Ted pushed Tommy to draft him because of the potential $$ of a Japanese market? Tell me. Show me.

https://www.nba.com/wizards/wizards-play-two-preseason-2022-preseason-games-japan#:~:text=The%20NBA%20Japan%20Games%202022,to%20Japan%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20Hachimura.

“We are so honored to represent the NBA and the wonderful game of basketball in front of an audience of Japanese fans,” said Ted Leonsis, Founder & CEO, Monumental Sports & Entertainment. “We are particularly excited to watch Rui Hachimura play in front of his fellow Japanese citizens. We were proud to welcome him into the DC Family nearly three years ago as a dynamic young talent and have only seen his growth as a player since. And our fans across our home market in Washington D.C. have a special connection to the Japanese people – marked by our annual celebration of the gift of cherry trees given to our city by the Mayor of Tokyo over 100 years ago. Celebrating American and Japanese cultures further strengthens our bonds and so we look forward to taking on the Golden State Warriors and growing new fans of the sport we all love.”

Ted is always talking about the home market. Not Washington DC. Not the Washington DC area. Market. Market market.

Van Stone COO of Monumental

“When you look at Rui being the first ever first round draft pick from Japan he certainly has appeal on the same level as Alex and maybe some other players, but he’s still early in his career,” Van Stone points out. “We’re excited about his basketball skills and we think his future development is truly bright. He certainly has the ability to capture the marketplace and he’s done that already.”

Among many other similar quotes if you search for it.

However, this tends to raise the potential trade value of Rui even beyond his stats and mystery appeal. He carries marketing opportunities to the right team and right, you know, market.

[badinage]

It’s time to squash this business of — Ted won’t allow him to be traded because he’s too enamored of the $$ from the Japanese market. What evidence — actual evidence — is there to support this? Or to support the even more speculative notion that Ted pushed Tommy to draft him because of the potential $$ of a Japanese market? Tell me. Show me.

https://www.nba.com/wizards/wizards-play-two-preseason-2022-preseason-games-japan#:~:text=The%20NBA%20Japan%20Games%202022,to%20Japan%2C%E2%80%9D%20said%20Hachimura.

“We are so honored to represent the NBA and the wonderful game of basketball in front of an audience of Japanese fans,” said Ted Leonsis, Founder & CEO, Monumental Sports & Entertainment. “We are particularly excited to watch Rui Hachimura play in front of his fellow Japanese citizens. We were proud to welcome him into the DC Family nearly three years ago as a dynamic young talent and have only seen his growth as a player since. And our fans across our home market in Washington D.C. have a special connection to the Japanese people – marked by our annual celebration of the gift of cherry trees given to our city by the Mayor of Tokyo over 100 years ago. Celebrating American and Japanese cultures further strengthens our bonds and so we look forward to taking on the Golden State Warriors and growing new fans of the sport we all love.”

Ted is always talking about the home market. Not Washington DC. Not the Washington DC area. Market. Market market.

Van Stone COO of Monumental

“When you look at Rui being the first ever first round draft pick from Japan he certainly has appeal on the same level as Alex and maybe some other players, but he’s still early in his career,” Van Stone points out. “We’re excited about his basketball skills and we think his future development is truly bright. He certainly has the ability to capture the marketplace and he’s done that already.”

Among many other similar quotes if you search for it.

However, this tends to raise the potential trade value of Rui even beyond his stats and mystery appeal. He carries marketing opportunities to the right team and right, you know, market.

This is all ex-post facto.

They drafted a guy, then they built a campaign.

Nothing in here — nothing — suggests that this was a factor in their choosing him, much less that it MOTIVATED that decision.

[Shoe]

There's nothing wrong with saying we should move on from Rui. But analysis needs to be grounded in reality. 1) Find a 4 who compliments Beal and Porzingis better than Rui does 2) Make the argument why even coming off the bench is unacceptable 3) what precisely you would do with him I.e. trade/release/let his contract expire etc.

Reality is where Rui crashes into that ground. Check Rui in various line-ups. Sort by net points. Scroll down to 2-man combinations for the largest sample size. Notice a trend. There is literally nobody in the top ten pairing of Rui + another player where the team scores more points than the opponent with him on the floor.

DRTG is flawed. All that it says is Rui averages a low amount of blocks, steals, deflections, rebounds. Dean Oliver himself probably threw it into the trash circa 2015.

Trying to find the individual contribution to a defensive stop made sense in 2004. Today's NBA though switching > above all.

Last year Rui had a +0.66 DLEBRON (defensive impact per 100 poss). That would rank between achiuwa and Beverly this year, and be 3rd on the Wizards.

But no team is using LeBron or subtracting ORTG with DRTG. Wizards are 6-5 with KP and Rui in the starting lineup.

[prime1time]

There's nothing wrong with saying we should move on from Rui. But analysis needs to be grounded in reality. 1) Find a 4 who compliments Beal and Porzingis better than Rui does 2) Make the argument why even coming off the bench is unacceptable 3) what precisely you would do with him I.e. trade/release/let his contract expire etc.

1. Anthony Gill. I'm not saying that we should start Gill. My point is that it's not really that hard to find stretch 4's these days if all you want is adequate standstill shooting. But a difference-making stretch 4 needs to be much better than that. A difference-making stretch 4 must be an elite defender and/or rebounder while also shooting efficiently from 3. And preferably, they get up more than 5 3PAs/36 minutes.

2. He will cost too much on his next contract (given his pedigree as a lotto pick and the general rule that the league overvalues scoring relative to defense when it comes to salary).

3. Keep him in the offseason. See if he can dedicate himself to defense next year. If not, move him at the Trade Deadline, probably to a contending team who would value a backup stretch 4 who isn't a defensive sieve on a contract that won't exacerbate their luxtax situation.

1. This is a fundamental misreading of what I wrote. I didn't say "all I want is adequate shooting." But even if I did, has Gill ever shown that? He's averaged .6 3-point attempts this year. This is what happens when you focus more on winning an argument than trying to cohesively piece out the best way to build the Wizards. If you seriously think Gill is a better option for this team at the 4, then I'm willing to debate it. But on the surface it is laughable. By the way you twisted my argument, you'd think I'd be in favor of bringing 60-year-old Larry Bird out of retirement to play the 4. So let me rephrase. Given the importance of floor spacing - note floor spacing isn't the only thing that matters, but it is the most important thing - who is the best player that we can get to play the 4 outside of Hachimura. This isn't to say that defense doesn't matter or rebounding doesn't matter or playmaking doesn't matter. But this is to say that they better be really really good at those other things if they can't space the floor. I would love Draymond Green at the 4. But that's the kind of impact you need to bring to argue that we should overlook not adequate shooting (as you alluded to) but great shooting.

2. You are dealing in abstracts. What specific number amount is unacceptable? I think 10 to 15 million a year is perfectly fine. He's obviously not getting Sabonis or John Collins money.

3. So we should keep him and dedicate him to improving his defense? What does this even mean? More blocks ? More steals? Better man-on-man defense? I've written this about Hachimura in the past and I will reiterate it again. Let's say he does improve defensively, wouldn't teams just opt to attack someone else, by getting a switch? I question how much value Rui improving his defense will bring to the table regarding our overall team defense. Is Rui Hachimura so bad defensively, that his presence on the floor prevents the Wizards from playing good defense? This answer is clearly no. Other teams have defenders just as bad if not worse than Rui and play good defense. What do they have that the Wizards don't? Players have the ability to fundamentally alter the game defensively and account for the shortcomings of other players on the team. That is how you get a good defense. Not by coaching up Rui on defense in the offseason.

Ultimately, if you don't like Rui at whatever money amount he is likely to get, he's not going to improve his defense enough to get you to like him. So we should just move on from him. Of course, this is the favorite answer by people on this board. Just like rebuilding, trading/moving from a player is seeped in this board's perpetual "grass is always greener" mentality. The best case scenario for us it to win the lottery and draft either Chet, Banchero or Smith. An argument can be made for Keegan Murray being complimenting Beal and Porzingis better than Rui also.

In my opinion, outside of getting lucky in the draft lottery, the reality is that there isn't one available player who will clear cut be better compliment to Beal and Porzingis than Rui. And if there was someone available, you would have to pay a king's ransom to get them because every playoff contender wants that kind of player. That's why you mentioned Anthony Gill.

[nate33]

But no team is using LeBron or subtracting ORTG with DRTG. Wizards are 6-5 with KP and Rui in the starting lineup.

Yeah, and the during that 11-game stretch, the Wizards had a -7.1 point differential per 48 minutes with Rui on the court, and +3.24 point differential per 48 minutes with him off the court.

[prime1time]

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/forward/
These are the forwards in this year's free agent class. Who should we target? Perhaps an argument can be made for Covington, but in this market you'd likely be overpaying for his services. And even then, the point I made previously comes up. Role Players do not make team contenders. This is why Covington has changed teams so often. In the last 4 years he has played on 5 different teams. Clippers, Blazers, Rockets, Wolves and 76ers. Of course we could try to trade for a difference-maker at the 4. Someone like Christian Wood would fit well. This would be the best case scenario, but even then. You're only getting him for 1 year and then he's going to expect a massive salary increase. All of this to say, it's easy to look at Rui and say why he's not enough. The hard part is to actually go through the players that are available and say that this is who we play instead of Rui.

Andre Iguodala GSW SF 38.2 18 UFA Non-Bird $15,000,000
Thaddeus Young TOR PF 33.8 15 UFA Bird $14,545,000
Joe Ingles POR SF 34.5 8 UFA Bird $13,036,364
Taurean Prince MIN PF 28.0 6 UFA Bird $12,625,000
T.J. Warren IND SF 28.6 8 UFA Bird $11,750,000
Robert Covington LAC PF 31.2 9 UFA Bird $11,719,782
Montrezl Harrell CHA PF 28.2 7 UFA Early Bird $9,489,450
Derrick Jones Jr. CHI SF 25.1 6 UFA Early Bird $9,489,450
Kyle Anderson MEM SF 28.5 8 UFA Bird $9,289,075
Marvin Bagley III DET PF 23.0 4 RFA Bird $9,034,369
JaMychal Green DEN PF 31.8 7 PO $8,200,000
P.J. Tucker MIA PF 36.9 10 PO $7,175,000
Chris Boucher TOR PF 29.2 5 UFA Bird $6,760,000
Jalen Smith IND PF 22.0 2 UFA Early Bird $4,832,084
Kevon Looney GSW PF 26.2 7 UFA Bird $4,821,429
Kevin Knox ATL SF 22.6 4 RFA Bird $4,638,675
Jeff Green DEN PF 35.6 14 PO $4,500,000
Bobby Portis MIL PF 27.2 6 PO $4,456,290
Miles Bridges CHA SF 24.0 4 RFA Bird $4,079,463
Jake Layman MIN SF 28.1 6 UFA Bird $3,761,085
Troy Brown Jr. CHI SF 22.7 4 RFA Bird $3,627,991
Mike Muscala OKC PF 30.8 8 CO $3,500,000
Nicolas Batum LAC SF 33.2 13 PO $3,249,280
Josh Okogie MIN SF 23.6 4 RFA Bird $2,857,586
LaMarcus Aldridge BKN PF 36.7 16 UFA Early Bird $2,641,691
Paul Millsap PHI PF 37.2 16 UFA Non-Bird $2,641,691
Blake Griffin BKN PF 33.0 12 UFA Early Bird $2,641,691
Udonis Haslem MIA PF 41.8 19 UFA Bird $2,641,691
Carmelo Anthony LAL PF 37.8 18 UFA Non-Bird $2,641,691
Markieff Morris MIA PF 32.6 11 UFA Non-Bird $2,641,691
Trey Lyles SAC PF 26.4 6 CO $2,562,500
Otto Porter Jr. GSW SF 28.8 9 UFA Non-Bird $2,389,641
Ben McLemore POR SF 29.1 9 UFA Non-Bird $2,389,641
Rodney Hood LAC SF 29.4 8 UFA Non-Bird $2,239,544
Nemanja Bjelica GSW PF 33.9 7 UFA Non-Bird $2,089,448
Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL SF 29.7 3 PO $1,803,969
Isaac Bonga TOR SF 22.4 4 UFA Non-Bird $1,729,217
Stanley Johnson LAL SF 25.8 6 CO $1,620,069
Isaiah Roby OKC SF 24.2 2 CO $1,600,201
Bruno Fernando HOU PF 23.6 3 RFA Bird $1,566,867
Jalen McDaniels CHA PF 24.2 2 CO $1,532,398
Cody Martin CHA SF 26.5 3 RFA Bird $1,491,304
Jae’Sean Tate HOU SF 26.4 1 CO $1,481,839
Nicolas Claxton BKN PF 22.9 3 RFA Bird $1,399,637
Eric Paschall UTH PF 25.4 3 RFA Bird $1,399,637
Vlatko Cancar DEN SF 25.0 3 RFA Bird $1,399,637
Oshae Brissett IND SF 23.8 2 CO $1,229,523
Dean Wade CLE PF 25.3 2 CO $1,225,201
CJ Elleby POR SF 21.8 2 RFA Early Bird $1,208,146
Elijah Hughes POR SF 24.1 2 RFA Early Bird $1,208,146
Anthony Gill WAS PF 29.4 2 RFA Early Bird $1,208,146
Jordan Nwora MIL PF 23.6 2 RFA Early Bird $1,208,146
Yuta Watanabe TOR SF 27.4 4 RFA Early Bird $1,042,345
Juan Toscano-Anderson GSW SF 29.1 3 RFA Early Bird $1,029,944
Sam Hauser BOS SF 24.3 0 CO $938,628
Danuel House UTH SF 28.8 6 UFA Non-Bird $657,596
Caleb Martin MIA SF 26.5 3 RFA Non-Bird $527,615
Joe Wieskamp SAS SF 27.7 1 RFA Non-Bird $202,068
Wenyen Gabriel LAL PF 25.0 4 UFA Early Bird $29,814
Kessler Edwards BKN SF 23.1 1 RFA Non-Bird $21,270
Anthony Lamb HOU SF 24.2 2 RFA Non-Bird $8,558
Chaundee Brown ATL SF 23.3 1 RFA Non-Bird $5,318
Gary Clark NOP PF 27.3 4 UFA Non-Bird -
Matt Ryan BOS SF 24.9 1 RFA Non-Bird -
Admiral Schofield ORL SF 25.0 2 RFA Non-Bird -
Arnoldas Kulboka CHA SF 24.2 1 RFA Non-Bird -
Nathan Knight MIN PF 24.5 2 RFA Non-Bird -
Jamorko Pickett DET SF 24.2 1 RFA Non-Bird -
Ignas Brazdeikis ORL SF 23.2 3 RFA Early Bird -
Tyler Cook CHI PF 24.5 3 RFA Non-Bird -
Melvin Frazier OKC SF 25.6 3 RFA Non-Bird -

[nate33]

1. This is a fundamental misreading of what I wrote. I didn't say "all I want is adequate shooting." But even if I did, has Gill ever shown that? He's averaged .6 3-point attempts this year. This is what happens when you focus more on winning an argument than trying to cohesively piece out the best way to build the Wizards. If you seriously think Gill is a better option for this team at the 4, then I'm willing to debate it. But on the surface it is laughable. By the way you twisted my argument, you'd think I'd be in favor of bringing 60-year-old Larry Bird out of retirement to play the 4. So let me rephrase. Given the importance of floor spacing - note floor spacing isn't the only thing that matters, but it is the most important thing - who is the best player that we can get to play the 4 outside of Hachimura. This isn't to say that defense doesn't matter or rebounding doesn't matter or playmaking doesn't matter. But this is to say that they better be really really good at those other things if they can't space the floor. I would love Draymond Green at the 4. But that's the kind of impact you need to bring to argue that we should overlook not adequate shooting (as you alluded to) but great shooting.

Sorry P1T, but the argument you are making here is absurd. You can't just declare spacing "the most important thing" and minimize everything else. All players are the sum of their positives and negatives. So far, in 3 seasons of Rui, we have seen consistently negative on/off differentials, even during this recent stretch of him shooting extremely (and probably unsustainably) well from 3-point range. Right now, we have little reason to believe that Rui is better than Gill, other than Gill having a low-minute sample size. And he definitely isn't better than Deni if your metric is who helps the team outscore the other team more.

2. You are dealing in abstracts. What specific number amount is unacceptable? I think 10 to 15 million a year is perfectly fine. He's obviously not getting Sabonis or John Collins money.

I don't think $15M a year is perfectly fine. Compared to recent signings at that position, that's 150% of what a guy like Jae Crowder gets, and Crowder is better. It's barely less than what OG Anunoby makes, and Anunoby is MUCH better.

3. So we should keep him and dedicate him to improving his defense? What does this even mean? More blocks ? More steals? Better man-on-man defense? I've written this about Hachimura in the past and I will reiterate it again. Let's say he does improve defensively, wouldn't teams just opt to attack someone else, by getting a switch? I question how much value Rui improving his defense will bring to the table regarding our overall team defense. Is Rui Hachimura so bad defensively, that his presence on the floor prevents the Wizards from playing good defense? This answer is clearly no. Other teams have defenders just as bad if not worse than Rui and play good defense. What do they have that the Wizards don't? Players have the ability to fundamentally alter the game defensively and account for the shortcomings of other players on the team. That is how you get a good defense. Not by coaching up Rui on defense in the offseason.

He needs to show some actual energy on defense. He did it briefly last season under Skiles which gave me a bit of hope, but he never showed it again this year. I want to see some effort put into weakside shot blocking, rebounding outside of his area, taking charges and getting steals in passing lanes. He does none of this. He is strangely passive on defense, doing a lot of ball-watching without much activity.

You are basically arguing that there is little difference between good defense and bad defense, just show up and don't get burned in one-on-one coverage and you are adequate. That's just not the case. A good defender makes plays above and beyond merely challenging the shot of the man he is guarding. Deni is an example of a legitimately good defender. You feel his defensive impact every game. You see it in his defensive rebounding (DRB% is 20.6 versus Rui's 15.9) despite him being shorter and shorter-armed than Rui, and guarding guards more often than bigs.

[nate33]

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/forward/
These are the forwards in this year's free agent class. Who should we target? Perhaps an argument can be made for Covington, but in this market you'd likely be overpaying for his services. And even then, the point I made previously comes up. Role Players do not make team contenders. This is why Covington has changed teams so often. In the last 4 years he has played on 5 different teams. Clippers, Blazers, Rockets, Wolves and 76ers. Of course we could try to trade for a difference-maker at the 4. Someone like Christian Wood would fit well. This would be the best case scenario, but even then. You're only getting him for 1 year and then he's going to expect a massive salary increase. All of this to say, it's easy to look at Rui and say why he's not enough. The hard part is to actually go through the players that are available and say that this is who we play instead of Rui.

Spoiler:

Andre Iguodala GSW SF 38.2 18 UFA Non-Bird $15,000,000
Thaddeus Young TOR PF 33.8 15 UFA Bird $14,545,000
Joe Ingles POR SF 34.5 8 UFA Bird $13,036,364
Taurean Prince MIN PF 28.0 6 UFA Bird $12,625,000
T.J. Warren IND SF 28.6 8 UFA Bird $11,750,000
Robert Covington LAC PF 31.2 9 UFA Bird $11,719,782
Montrezl Harrell CHA PF 28.2 7 UFA Early Bird $9,489,450
Derrick Jones Jr. CHI SF 25.1 6 UFA Early Bird $9,489,450
Kyle Anderson MEM SF 28.5 8 UFA Bird $9,289,075
Marvin Bagley III DET PF 23.0 4 RFA Bird $9,034,369
JaMychal Green DEN PF 31.8 7 PO $8,200,000
P.J. Tucker MIA PF 36.9 10 PO $7,175,000
Chris Boucher TOR PF 29.2 5 UFA Bird $6,760,000
Jalen Smith IND PF 22.0 2 UFA Early Bird $4,832,084
Kevon Looney GSW PF 26.2 7 UFA Bird $4,821,429
Kevin Knox ATL SF 22.6 4 RFA Bird $4,638,675
Jeff Green DEN PF 35.6 14 PO $4,500,000
Bobby Portis MIL PF 27.2 6 PO $4,456,290
Miles Bridges CHA SF 24.0 4 RFA Bird $4,079,463
Jake Layman MIN SF 28.1 6 UFA Bird $3,761,085
Troy Brown Jr. CHI SF 22.7 4 RFA Bird $3,627,991
Mike Muscala OKC PF 30.8 8 CO $3,500,000
Nicolas Batum LAC SF 33.2 13 PO $3,249,280
Josh Okogie MIN SF 23.6 4 RFA Bird $2,857,586
LaMarcus Aldridge BKN PF 36.7 16 UFA Early Bird $2,641,691
Paul Millsap PHI PF 37.2 16 UFA Non-Bird $2,641,691
Blake Griffin BKN PF 33.0 12 UFA Early Bird $2,641,691
Udonis Haslem MIA PF 41.8 19 UFA Bird $2,641,691
Carmelo Anthony LAL PF 37.8 18 UFA Non-Bird $2,641,691
Markieff Morris MIA PF 32.6 11 UFA Non-Bird $2,641,691
Trey Lyles SAC PF 26.4 6 CO $2,562,500
Otto Porter Jr. GSW SF 28.8 9 UFA Non-Bird $2,389,641
Ben McLemore POR SF 29.1 9 UFA Non-Bird $2,389,641
Rodney Hood LAC SF 29.4 8 UFA Non-Bird $2,239,544
Nemanja Bjelica GSW PF 33.9 7 UFA Non-Bird $2,089,448
Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL SF 29.7 3 PO $1,803,969
Isaac Bonga TOR SF 22.4 4 UFA Non-Bird $1,729,217
Stanley Johnson LAL SF 25.8 6 CO $1,620,069
Isaiah Roby OKC SF 24.2 2 CO $1,600,201
Bruno Fernando HOU PF 23.6 3 RFA Bird $1,566,867
Jalen McDaniels CHA PF 24.2 2 CO $1,532,398
Cody Martin CHA SF 26.5 3 RFA Bird $1,491,304
Jae’Sean Tate HOU SF 26.4 1 CO $1,481,839
Nicolas Claxton BKN PF 22.9 3 RFA Bird $1,399,637
Eric Paschall UTH PF 25.4 3 RFA Bird $1,399,637
Vlatko Cancar DEN SF 25.0 3 RFA Bird $1,399,637
Oshae Brissett IND SF 23.8 2 CO $1,229,523
Dean Wade CLE PF 25.3 2 CO $1,225,201
CJ Elleby POR SF 21.8 2 RFA Early Bird $1,208,146
Elijah Hughes POR SF 24.1 2 RFA Early Bird $1,208,146
Anthony Gill WAS PF 29.4 2 RFA Early Bird $1,208,146
Jordan Nwora MIL PF 23.6 2 RFA Early Bird $1,208,146
Yuta Watanabe TOR SF 27.4 4 RFA Early Bird $1,042,345
Juan Toscano-Anderson GSW SF 29.1 3 RFA Early Bird $1,029,944
Sam Hauser BOS SF 24.3 0 CO $938,628
Danuel House UTH SF 28.8 6 UFA Non-Bird $657,596
Caleb Martin MIA SF 26.5 3 RFA Non-Bird $527,615
Joe Wieskamp SAS SF 27.7 1 RFA Non-Bird $202,068
Wenyen Gabriel LAL PF 25.0 4 UFA Early Bird $29,814
Kessler Edwards BKN SF 23.1 1 RFA Non-Bird $21,270
Anthony Lamb HOU SF 24.2 2 RFA Non-Bird $8,558
Chaundee Brown ATL SF 23.3 1 RFA Non-Bird $5,318
Gary Clark NOP PF 27.3 4 UFA Non-Bird -
Matt Ryan BOS SF 24.9 1 RFA Non-Bird -
Admiral Schofield ORL SF 25.0 2 RFA Non-Bird -
Arnoldas Kulboka CHA SF 24.2 1 RFA Non-Bird -
Nathan Knight MIN PF 24.5 2 RFA Non-Bird -
Jamorko Pickett DET SF 24.2 1 RFA Non-Bird -
Ignas Brazdeikis ORL SF 23.2 3 RFA Early Bird -
Tyler Cook CHI PF 24.5 3 RFA Non-Bird -
Melvin Frazier OKC SF 25.6 3 RFA Non-Bird -

From that list, I'd say Otto Porter, Kyle Anderson, Chris Boucher, Jalen Smith and Bobby Portis (all on sub-MLE contracts) would be better players and most likely better values than Rui on his 2nd contract. We also have Kyle Kuzma, of course. Though Kuzma is probably another guy who will cost more than his fair value because GM's overvalue PPG.

[Shoe]

But no team is using LeBron or subtracting ORTG with DRTG. Wizards are 6-5 with KP and Rui in the starting lineup.

Yeah, and the during that 11-game stretch, the Wizards had a -7.1 point differential per 48 minutes with Rui on the court, and +3.24 point differential per 48 minutes with him off the court.

Point differential in an 11 game sample size extrapolated to 48 mins? Seems dramatic.

[nate33]

But no team is using LeBron or subtracting ORTG with DRTG. Wizards are 6-5 with KP and Rui in the starting lineup.

Yeah, and the during that 11-game stretch, the Wizards had a -7.1 point differential per 48 minutes with Rui on the court, and +3.24 point differential per 48 minutes with him off the court.

Point differential in an 11 game sample size extrapolated to 48 mins? Seems dramatic.

The sample size is small, sure. But the numbers look very much like the numbers throughout all of Rui's career, so they track. And you were the one who brought up an 11-game sample size to make a point. Not me.

The per 48 minutes isn't an extrapolation so much as it's an apples-to-apples comparison. Whenever you compare players' +/- numbers, it must be on a per minute or per possession basis or it has little meaning.

[doclinkin]

It’s time to squash this business of — Ted won’t allow him to be traded because he’s too enamored of the $$ from the Japanese market. What evidence — actual evidence — is there to support this?

Show me.

(...evidence ...)

This is all ex-post facto.

They drafted a guy, then they built a campaign.

Nothing in here — nothing — suggests that this was a factor in their choosing him, much less that it MOTIVATED that decision.

Answering your first point. Evidence that Ted / Monumental value Rui for the market he opens up, beyond his value on the court.

[doclinkin]

There's nothing wrong with saying we should move on from Rui. But analysis needs to be grounded in reality. 1) Find a 4 who compliments Beal and Porzingis better than Rui does 2) Make the argument why even coming off the bench is unacceptable 3) what precisely you would do with him I.e. trade/release/let his contract expire etc.

Reality is where Rui crashes into that ground. Check Rui in various line-ups. Sort by net points. Scroll down to 2-man combinations for the largest sample size. Notice a trend. There is literally nobody in the top ten pairing of Rui + another player where the team scores more points than the opponent with him on the floor.

DRTG is flawed. All that it says is Rui averages a low amount of blocks, steals, deflections, rebounds. Dean Oliver himself probably threw it into the trash circa 2015.

Who cited DRTG? This is simply line-up regressions of how many points were scored for and against a crew of players in their time on the floor. Just what actually happened, not any estimation of what it means.

[doclinkin]

He needs to show some actual energy on defense. He did it briefly last season under Skiles which gave me a bit of hope, but he never showed it again this year.

Brooks. Skiles is the other scrappy PG who landed a coaching job. But yeah as a head coach Skiles' teams did always emphasize defense. I think Rui showed energy last year next to Westbrook, because Westbrook is Westbrook. I think his energy level burned out a bit trying to carry Japan in the Olympics. He took a long time off for non-physical reasons, and came back with somewhat less focus on that end. I don't rule out his discovering a love for the game and improving on D. I think work with a good sports therapist would help a ton. A good therapist period, though then he might decided that Basketball doesn't make his spirit happy, and move on to better different things.