Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[tleikheen]

Porzingus being only 26 and entering his peak years with a full summer to work on his game should not be losing minutes and going backwards. In 28 mpg without Beal and most of the time without Kuzma avg 22 mpg. For Porzingus career he avgs 31 mpg so playing 32 mpg entering his prime would be ideal.
Beal should be getting 34 mpg himself and Kuzma 30 mpg.
Porzingus /Beal /& Kuzma are the big 3 of the Wiz.
Excluding the latest draft pick Johnny Davis .......Hachimura ,Avidja ,& Kispert plus the traded for Gafford should get the next most minutes.
The big 3 will lead but more wins will happen if the young players have progressed into fulltime rotation players.

[doclinkin]

We have two centers that are often injured or unable to play for whatever reason. It should be a position of concern.

I would expect to see experiments with Kuzma as a small-ball center in that case. Beal, Barton, Deni, Rui, Kuzma. Kuzma at the high post, passing, pick and roll, pick and pop. Spread the floor, with Rui and Barton at the wings. Beal in motion through screens. Deni setting screens and facilitating, acting as secondary ball handler. It works best though if Deni has developed his jumper a bit.

[doclinkin]

Deni
Beal
Kuzma
Rui
Porzingis

Have a deep bench…

I actually like this a lot - and would love to see some minutes there. It is a swing for the fences when you know if you don't you are the 9th or 10th seed at best.

But Wes is a small ball guy (IMO)... so there is that.

I don't know about that. Scotty Brooks yes, but Wes is the first coach we have seen in a long time that played 2 bigs together (ok in 11 total minutes of Gafford and Zinger). He played a Deni/Rui/Porzingis/Kispert/Satoransky line. That's about as big as we could get last year. Sub Wright for Satoransky and we are still pretty tall. We can afford to play a small ball style with a 7'3" center. The same way he did with the Joker in Denver. Beal and Kuzma did not get much time playing next to Porzingis, I fully expect the team will try many combinations with those 3. I might sub Kispert for Rui if we need offense, or Dorrell Wright for Beal if we need defense. But yeah I am curious to see what Wes would do with a full healthy roster (knock wood) and enough time to experiment.

[dckingsfan]

Deni
Beal
Kuzma
Rui
Porzingis

Have a deep bench…

I actually like this a lot - and would love to see some minutes there. It is a swing for the fences when you know if you don't you are the 9th or 10th seed at best.

But Wes is a small ball guy (IMO)... so there is that.

I don't know about that. Scotty Brooks yes, but Wes is the first coach we have seen in a long time that played 2 bigs together (ok in 11 total minutes of Gafford and Zinger). He played a Deni/Rui/Porzingis/Kispert/Satoransky line. That's about as big as we could get last year. Sub Wright for Satoransky and we are still pretty tall. We can afford to play a small ball style with a 7'3" center. The same way he did with the Joker in Denver. Beal and Kuzma did not get much time playing next to Porzingis, I fully expect the team will try many combinations with those 3. I might sub Kispert for Rui if we need offense, or Dorrell Wright for Beal if we need defense. But yeah I am curious to see what Wes would do with a full healthy roster (knock wood) and enough time to experiment.

Well, you could easily be right if Wes carries over his end-of-season lineups. This is just my guess for the beginning of the season - I think he will start with a PG/SG, SG, SG or SG/SF for most of the minutes.

I would love to see a bit more Gafford/Porzingis as well if you are going to go with the "three guard" lineups. Ducks as things are thrown his way.

Either way, to me - this is the most fascinating story line of 22-23. It will be interesting to see how Wes manages his sophomore year. It will be telling...

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm thinking rotation could fall something like this...

Wright, Morris
Beal, Kispert/Davis
Kuzma, Barton
Hachimura, Avdija
Porzingis, Gafford

[doclinkin]

I forget which thread was sharing the sunniest of optimistic possibilities but I suppose I will post it here. I can always script both sides of the Yin/Yang on why we will be good or not. Might as well talk about the best possibilities.

Year 2 of Wes Unseld with an entire offseason to prep. Here he adds 2 players who he knows well and who trust him wholeheartedly. Wes has garnered glowing reviews at each of his stops as an assistant coach especially in player development. It is tough to work on these micro details during the season as a Head coach. But in the offseason you have opportunity to study film, learn what players do well, and encourage them in the areas that they may likely see improvement.

Wes has said he likes to devise his system to take advantage of the strengths of the players he has. We have seen this with Porzingis, where he was dropped into the role that was always lacking in the version of the Princeton offense that Wes designed under Eddie Jordan on his stint with this team back in the Hibachi era. We tried drafting Hilton Necklong, Stewie Pecherov, 7 Day Dray, and a host of others to try to play the high post small ball center. None of them panned out. In Porzingis he finally landed the elusive Unicorn and we saw success at least in Porzingis' personal improvement.

Next to him we now add shooters. Morris, Wright, Barton can hit an outside shot. Interestingly each has a different hot spot from 3. Morris shot 42% from the top of the key . In a pick and roll situation the gravity that Porzingis carries will free this shot for Monte, as it did with the Joker in Denver. Jokic was of course better at passing back to this spot when defenses collapse, but still, the shot will be there even on a relay pass if Porzingis kicks it out.

Delon Wright hit 42% and above 46% from the elbow extended. A similar shot to Morris, it is a side step to the left or right after the pick and roll play. It is an easier pass-back on the pick and roll since Porzingis need not have eyes in the back of his head to pass it here. Wright was a judicious shooter, stingy even, only taking shots when that was the right play, but to his credit he made those shots.

Barton is a volume shooter, posting over six 3's a game with results pretty much exactly league average. However from the baseline wing Barton was a flamethrower, hitting 54% from the right baseline 3, and above 45% from the left. Again we are in small sample sizes here, but still, for the purposes of optimism it shows he can hit that shot.

These three and the continued development of ranged shooting for other members of the team will make a huge difference in spacing. We essentially have hot zones at every spot outside the arc. Porzingis showed his touch from the right elbow extended (over 50% from this spot, right behind where a pick and pop game would be played with Beal). Rui was similarly blazing from the opposite side (over 50% from the left elbow extended, nearly 53% from the left wing). Corey Kispert hit just under 48% from the right corner. With potential shooters at every point on the curve, you don't even really need an incredibly savvy point guard to find the shooter. Your offense pretty much is as simple as: move to your hot spot, wait for a pass.

It is nice that this is also the focus of offseason work for Deni, Davis, Beal, Zay Todd. That can strengthen the depth of shooters. Opening shots for anybody. If one or two of these players develop a better than average shot from outside then all of our line-ups are strengthened, deep into the bench.

Adding competent and solid passers in Wright and Morris has a chance to significantly improve our efficiency, especially given how stellar these two are at protecting the ball. Neither turns it over, basically ever. If we are able to trust them with the ball it frees up other players off the ball to probe for attack lanes. Smart players who know how and when to cut will take full advantage of the space provided when teams over commit to stop Porzingis or who stay tightly at home on the outside shooters. The motion offense is designed to take full advantage of this spacing with timely cuts and backdoor attacks at the basket. Beal, Kispert, Davis, are ideal players for this sort of off-ball threat. These are smart players who score on the interior efficiently and bigger than their listed size. Porzingis, Gafford and Rui have mismatch power in the interior and will feast if the team develops chemistry that feeds them when they attack the interior. Even Kuzma has shown better than average efficiency at this spot.

If this team surprises, then this is why: a smart coach devises a system that maximizes what the players already do well, and chemistry naturally develops from that. As described, and if it works, this is the team that Tommy has been sketching in selecting high IQ ball players who make quick reads. In general it seems like Tommy prioritizes team smarts over raw athleticism and potential (Rui/Todd as notable exceptions). On offense we have the raw tools to frustrate teams who overlook us or who think the Porzingis/Beal combo is the only chance we've got. In truth if Beal can return to his off-ball motion best, he acts as a quarter-billion dollar decoy. Drawing defenders out of position, where they die a death by a thousand cuts from competent players elsewhere who know their role and play it well.

On defense, well. We have a few tools here. Wright. Davis. Rui one on one. Kuzma rebounding. Gafford weakside shot blocking. Zinger under the basket. But our biggest hope again is competent teaching. Wes has also been credited for devising a system where Jokic was no longer a liability on defense. That's a hellova accomplishment. Defense may not be our greatest strength but there are lines that can be devised that are strong enough to work.

In short if I had to pick one guy whose strong play is likely the lynchpin of our success this year it would be not a player at all. But Wes Unseld. As a new coach with an unstable locker room and feuding veterans with no history or agreement on role, he was at a disadvantage. I think much like his strength has been player development, as a coach I expect he will show improvement every year as well. I see enough pieces that a guy like Wes can Lego-set together a few different interesting structures, offense and D.

Lastly, if I had to pick one other guy well, okay yeah, to build a team around Bradley Beal as a huge portion of our cap, that will take a miracle. Still, so many people thought it impossible that we would be able to trade John Wall. Tommy Sheppard turned a one legged John Wall with the bar none worst contract in the league into: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris, Will Barton, Vernon Carey, Isaiah Todd and um, a draft and stash Euro. Whatever your opinions about any of these players, they are at the very least far more tradeable assets than an injured former all-star who hasn't played in 3 years. Tommy may be eh, okay, in the draft. And he may carry Ted around as a handicap. But when it comes to trade magic, Tommy has shown himself to the the true Wizard. You never know what wild move he might pull off. It does keep it interesting even when it feels like there is nothing that can be done. WIth Tommy, really, you never know, you never know. That alone makes certain doom feel, well, at least not entirely inevitable.

[nate33]

I forget which thread was sharing the sunniest of optimistic possibilities but I suppose I will post it here. I can always script both sides of the Yin/Yang on why we will be good or not. Might as well talk about the best possibilities.

Year 2 of Wes Unseld with an entire offseason to prep. Here he adds 2 players who he knows well and who trust him wholeheartedly. Wes has garnered glowing reviews at each of his stops as an assistant coach especially in player development. It is tough to work on these micro details during the season as a Head coach. But in the offseason you have opportunity to study film, learn what players do well, and encourage them in the areas that they may likely see improvement.

Wes has said he likes to devise his system to take advantage of the strengths of the players he has. We have seen this with Porzingis, where he was dropped into the role that was always lacking in the version of the Princeton offense that Wes designed under Eddie Jordan on his stint with this team back in the Hibachi era. We tried drafting Hilton Necklong, Stewie Pecherov, 7 Day Dray, and a host of others to try to play the high post small ball center. None of them panned out. In Porzingis he finally landed the elusive Unicorn and we saw success at least in Porzingis' personal improvement.

Next to him we now add shooters. Morris, Wright, Barton can hit an outside shot. Interestingly each has a different hot spot from 3. Morris shot 42% from the top of the key . In a pick and roll situation the gravity that Porzingis carries will free this shot for Monte, as it did the Joker in Denver. Jokic was of course better at passing back to this spot when defenses collapse, but still, the shot will be there even on a relay pass if Porzingis kicks it out.

Delon Wright hit 42% and above 46% from the elbow extended. A similar shot to Morris, it is a side step to the left or right after the pick and roll play. It is an easier pass-back on the pick and roll since Porzingis need not have eyes in the back of his head to pass it here. Wright was a judicious shooter, stingy even, only taking shots when that was the right play, but to his credit he made those shots.

Barton is a volume shooter, posting over six 3's a game with results pretty much exactly league average. However from the baseline wing Barton was a flamethrower, hitting 54% from the right baseline 3, and above 45% from the left. Again we are in small sample sizes here, but still, for the purposes of optimism it shows he can hit that shot.

These three and the continued development of ranged shooting for other members of the team will make a huge difference in spacing. We essentially have hot zones at every spot outside the arc. Porzingis showed his touch from the right elbow extended (over 50% from this spot, right behind where a pick and pop game would be played with Beal). Rui was similarly blazing from the opposite side (over 50% from the left elbow extended, nearly 53% from the left wing). Corey Kispert hit just under 48% from the right corner. With potential shooters at every point on the curve, you don't even really need an incredibly savvy point guard to find the shooter. Your offense pretty much is as simple as: move to your hot spot, wait for a pass.

It is nice that this is also the focus of offseason work for Deni, Davis, Beal, Zay Todd. That can strengthen the depth of shooters. Opening shots for anybody. If one or two of these players develop a better than average shot from outside then all of our line-ups are strengthened, deep into the bench.

Adding competent and solid passers in Wright and Morris has a chance to significantly improve our efficiency, especially given how stellar these two are at protecting the ball. Neither turns it over, basically ever. If we are able to trust them with the ball it frees up other players off the ball to probe for attack lanes. Smart players who know how and when to cut will take full advantage of the space provided when teams over commit to stop Porzingis or who stay tightly at home on the outside shooters. The motion offense is designed to take full advantage of this spacing with timely cuts and backdoor attacks at the basket. Beal, Kispert, Davis, are ideal players for this sort of off-ball threat. These are smart players who score on the interior efficiently and bigger than their listed size. Porzingis, Gafford and Rui have mismatch power in the interior and will feast if the team develops chemistry that feeds them when they attack the interior. Even Kuzma has shown better than average efficiency at this spot.

If this team surprises, then this is why: a smart coach devises a system that maximizes what the players already do well, and chemistry naturally develops from that. As described, and if it works, this is the team that Tommy has been sketching in selecting high IQ ball players who make quick reads. In general it seems like Tommy prioritizes team smarts over raw athleticism and potential (Rui/Todd as notable exceptions). On offense we have the raw tools to frustrate teams who overlook us or who think the Porzingis/Beal combo is the only chance we've got. In truth if Beal can return to his off-ball motion best, he acts as a quarter-billion dollar decoy. Drawing defenders out of position, where they die a death by a thousand cuts from competent players elsewhere who know their role and play it well.

On defense, well. We have a few tools here. Wright. Davis. Rui one on one. Kuzma rebounding. Gafford weakside shot blocking. Zinger under the basket. But our biggest hope again is competent teaching. Wes has also been credited for devising a system where Jokic was no longer a liability on defense. That's a hellova accomplishment. Defense may not be our greatest strength but there are lines that can be devised that are strong enough to work.

In short if I had to pick one guy whose strong play is likely the lynchpin of our success this year it would be not a player at all. But Wes Unseld. As a new coach with an unstable locker room and feuding veterans with no history or agreement on role, he was at a disadvantage. I think much like his strength has been player development, as a coach I expect he will show improvement every year as well. I see enough pieces that a guy like Wes can Lego-set together a few different interesting structures, offense and D.

Lastly, if I had to pick one other guy well, okay yeah, to build a team around Bradley Beal as a huge portion of our cap, that will take a miracle. Still, so many people thought it impossible that we would be able to trade John Wall. Tommy Sheppard turned a one legged John Wall with the bar none worst contract in the league into: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris, Will Barton, Vernon Carey, Isaiah Todd and um, a draft and stash Euro. Whatever your opinions about any of these players, they are at the very least far more tradeable assets than an injured former all-star who hasn't played in 3 years. Tommy may be eh, okay, in the draft. And he may carry Ted around as a handicap. But when it comes to trade magic, Tommy has shown himself to the the true Wizard. You never know what wild move he might pull off. It does keep it interesting even when it feels like there is nothing that can be done. WIth Tommy, really, you never know, you never know. That alone makes certain doom feel, well, at least not entirely inevitable.

I agree with much of this. I really felt that Wes Jr. really understands how to utilize Porzingis.

I just can't get over the feeling that this scheme can be implemented with or without Beal. I've just lost hope that Beal can be an efficient scorer anymore, whatever the role. He just doesn't shoot very well. And since he isn't bringing great defense either, how much is he helping? I feel like the only real positive he brings is off-the-bounce shot creation, which hopefully won't be very necessary when Porzingis is in the game and we are running our sets.

I'd absolutely love it if Beal could be Curry-light, with off-ball movement and a quick release to freak out defenses even when he doesn't get the ball. But his disturbing collapse in 3-point shooting does not give me much hope.

[payitforward]

Well...

Morris & Wright are upgrades.

Barton, overall, is probably something of a downgrade from KCP, but not much.

Johnny Davis is a rookie. No idea what we'll get from him.

Last year we went 35-47. Will we do better than that?

But, wait... last year we started 10-3, then went 25-44; that last bit is a 30-win pace. So, is "better than 35-47" really the question? Or is "better than 30 wins" the real question.

We went 7-10 with KP in the lineup. That's not quite a 34-win pace. On a small sample.

Of course, Brad wasn't on the floor w/ KP, so that's still to see. Or, really, the question is whether Brad becomes a good player again, because, make no mistake, last season wasn't just "a down year" from Brad's usual standard. Bradley Beal was actually bad last year, a bad player. Below NBA average. By a fair amount.

I'm not going to say he won't come back or can't come back -- but he has a long way to travel to return to the guy he'd been the previous several seasons -- i.e. one of the top 10% of players in the league.

&, if he does, let's keep in mind that we don't have a single other player, not one, who fits that description. So, this could be -- frankly, it probably will be -- a loooong season. I hope not, that's for sure. But Ted Leonsis saying we are "one FA away" isn't reassuring. &, IMO, his saying that the Wizards will be his "focus" is worse yet.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I forget which thread was sharing the sunniest of optimistic possibilities but I suppose I will post it here. I can always script both sides of the Yin/Yang on why we will be good or not. Might as well talk about the best possibilities.

Year 2 of Wes Unseld with an entire offseason to prep. Here he adds 2 players who he knows well and who trust him wholeheartedly. Wes has garnered glowing reviews at each of his stops as an assistant coach especially in player development. It is tough to work on these micro details during the season as a Head coach. But in the offseason you have opportunity to study film, learn what players do well, and encourage them in the areas that they may likely see improvement.

Wes has said he likes to devise his system to take advantage of the strengths of the players he has. We have seen this with Porzingis, where he was dropped into the role that was always lacking in the version of the Princeton offense that Wes designed under Eddie Jordan on his stint with this team back in the Hibachi era. We tried drafting Hilton Necklong, Stewie Pecherov, 7 Day Dray, and a host of others to try to play the high post small ball center. None of them panned out. In Porzingis he finally landed the elusive Unicorn and we saw success at least in Porzingis' personal improvement.

Next to him we now add shooters. Morris, Wright, Barton can hit an outside shot. Interestingly each has a different hot spot from 3. Morris shot 42% from the top of the key . In a pick and roll situation the gravity that Porzingis carries will free this shot for Monte, as it did the Joker in Denver. Jokic was of course better at passing back to this spot when defenses collapse, but still, the shot will be there even on a relay pass if Porzingis kicks it out.

Delon Wright hit 42% and above 46% from the elbow extended. A similar shot to Morris, it is a side step to the left or right after the pick and roll play. It is an easier pass-back on the pick and roll since Porzingis need not have eyes in the back of his head to pass it here. Wright was a judicious shooter, stingy even, only taking shots when that was the right play, but to his credit he made those shots.

Barton is a volume shooter, posting over six 3's a game with results pretty much exactly league average. However from the baseline wing Barton was a flamethrower, hitting 54% from the right baseline 3, and above 45% from the left. Again we are in small sample sizes here, but still, for the purposes of optimism it shows he can hit that shot.

These three and the continued development of ranged shooting for other members of the team will make a huge difference in spacing. We essentially have hot zones at every spot outside the arc. Porzingis showed his touch from the right elbow extended (over 50% from this spot, right behind where a pick and pop game would be played with Beal). Rui was similarly blazing from the opposite side (over 50% from the left elbow extended, nearly 53% from the left wing). Corey Kispert hit just under 48% from the right corner. With potential shooters at every point on the curve, you don't even really need an incredibly savvy point guard to find the shooter. Your offense pretty much is as simple as: move to your hot spot, wait for a pass.

It is nice that this is also the focus of offseason work for Deni, Davis, Beal, Zay Todd. That can strengthen the depth of shooters. Opening shots for anybody. If one or two of these players develop a better than average shot from outside then all of our line-ups are strengthened, deep into the bench.

Adding competent and solid passers in Wright and Morris has a chance to significantly improve our efficiency, especially given how stellar these two are at protecting the ball. Neither turns it over, basically ever. If we are able to trust them with the ball it frees up other players off the ball to probe for attack lanes. Smart players who know how and when to cut will take full advantage of the space provided when teams over commit to stop Porzingis or who stay tightly at home on the outside shooters. The motion offense is designed to take full advantage of this spacing with timely cuts and backdoor attacks at the basket. Beal, Kispert, Davis, are ideal players for this sort of off-ball threat. These are smart players who score on the interior efficiently and bigger than their listed size. Porzingis, Gafford and Rui have mismatch power in the interior and will feast if the team develops chemistry that feeds them when they attack the interior. Even Kuzma has shown better than average efficiency at this spot.

If this team surprises, then this is why: a smart coach devises a system that maximizes what the players already do well, and chemistry naturally develops from that. As described, and if it works, this is the team that Tommy has been sketching in selecting high IQ ball players who make quick reads. In general it seems like Tommy prioritizes team smarts over raw athleticism and potential (Rui/Todd as notable exceptions). On offense we have the raw tools to frustrate teams who overlook us or who think the Porzingis/Beal combo is the only chance we've got. In truth if Beal can return to his off-ball motion best, he acts as a quarter-billion dollar decoy. Drawing defenders out of position, where they die a death by a thousand cuts from competent players elsewhere who know their role and play it well.

On defense, well. We have a few tools here. Wright. Davis. Rui one on one. Kuzma rebounding. Gafford weakside shot blocking. Zinger under the basket. But our biggest hope again is competent teaching. Wes has also been credited for devising a system where Jokic was no longer a liability on defense. That's a hellova accomplishment. Defense may not be our greatest strength but there are lines that can be devised that are strong enough to work.

In short if I had to pick one guy whose strong play is likely the lynchpin of our success this year it would be not a player at all. But Wes Unseld. As a new coach with an unstable locker room and feuding veterans with no history or agreement on role, he was at a disadvantage. I think much like his strength has been player development, as a coach I expect he will show improvement every year as well. I see enough pieces that a guy like Wes can Lego-set together a few different interesting structures, offense and D.

Lastly, if I had to pick one other guy well, okay yeah, to build a team around Bradley Beal as a huge portion of our cap, that will take a miracle. Still, so many people thought it impossible that we would be able to trade John Wall. Tommy Sheppard turned a one legged John Wall with the bar none worst contract in the league into: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris, Will Barton, Vernon Carey, Isaiah Todd and um, a draft and stash Euro. Whatever your opinions about any of these players, they are at the very least far more tradeable assets than an injured former all-star who hasn't played in 3 years. Tommy may be eh, okay, in the draft. And he may carry Ted around as a handicap. But when it comes to trade magic, Tommy has shown himself to the the true Wizard. You never know what wild move he might pull off. It does keep it interesting even when it feels like there is nothing that can be done. WIth Tommy, really, you never know, you never know. That alone makes certain doom feel, well, at least not entirely inevitable.

I agree with much of this. I really felt that Wes Jr. really understands how to utilize Porzingis.

I just can't get over the feeling that this scheme can be implemented with or without Beal. I've just lost hope that Beal can be an efficient scorer anymore, whatever the role. He just doesn't shoot very well. And since he isn't bringing great defense either, how much is he helping? I feel like the only real positive he brings is off-the-bounce shot creation, which hopefully won't be very necessary when Porzingis is in the game and we are running our sets.

I'd absolutely love it if Beal could be Curry-light, with off-ball movement and a quick release to freak out defenses even when he doesn't get the ball. But his disturbing collapse in 3-point shooting does not give me much hope.

https://youtu.be/_oYJusH13cc

Well watching Morris interview with Chris Miller he seems to be under the impression that he's the starter and he's going to be playing A lot more minutes than he has in the past, and really going to be given a chance to show what he can do. So don't anticipate seeing a lot of Wright or Davis at point or we might have some fracturing of the locker room... There could be some early clicks, with Morris & Kuz being best friends, and his teammate Barton, Deni & Kuz are tight, then you have Beal running the show and expecting everyone to fall in line...

Who knows, this team might surprise. If Beal can play like Curry, and Porzingis can play like Jokic, and Morris is like a hidden gem we uncover to become the next Mike Bibby.

[payitforward]

...Well watching Morris interview with Chris Miller he seems to be under the impression that he's the starter and he's going to be playing A lot more minutes than he has in the past...

?? You do understand, right, that Monte Morris played 2240 minutes last season? That he played almost 2000 minutes in his second year in the league (having been drafted #51 only about a year earlier)...?

...Who knows, this team might surprise. If Beal can play like Curry, and Porzingis can play like Jokic, and Morris is like a hidden gem we uncover to become the next Mike Bibby.

Yes, if Beal is Curry & Porzingis is Jokic, we are better. But, Beal is Beal not Curry & KP is just KP, no one else.

But... why stop at Bibby for Monte Morris? What if he's... let me see... I know: Timmy Hardaway! Yeah, wouldn't that be good?

[doclinkin]

Well watching Morris interview with Chris Miller he seems to be under the impression that he's the starter and he's going to be playing A lot more minutes than he has in the past, and really going to be given a chance to show what he can do. So don't anticipate seeing a lot of Wright or Davis at point or we might have some fracturing of the locker room... There could be some early clicks, with Morris & Kuz being best friends, and his teammate Barton, Deni & Kuz are tight, then you have Beal running the show and expecting everyone to fall in line...

I think there is a strong chance we see a much better locker room this year than last. Monte in charge is a good thing. Monte has been steadily improving as a shooter, here we have him entering his prime, as the floor leader who can translate the offense from Wes to the rest of the squad. We have a few players on court whose primary problem has been direction, trying to do too much, or even knowing what to do when. We talk about how Kuzma is streaky, how Klutch Kuzma does not show up early in the games, some games he will give you an efficient 30, some games he will gun even when missing. To add a guy who he trusts, with instant chemistry, the decision making can be taken out of his hands. Kuzma had the best 3FG% when playing with a true PG in Lonzo Ball, subsequently he has played under the shadow of LeBron. Here he too is entering his prime.

Likewise Rui's shot chart shows that at all points on the floor he is an above average shooter. He simply takes shots from the wrong place as often as he does from a higher percentage spot. Rui has never played with a full-time true PG though. If you look through his line-ups over his career, he is a net negative with any combination of players EXCEPT the 270 or so minutes he played next to Ish Smith a couple years back. With those two together he was something like +7pts per 100 possessions, with improved efficiency numbers in scoring. Rui more than anyone needs instruction in order to maximize his natural gifts. Westbrook is fine for motivating a guy, showing force and determination and maximum effort, but he is not the most patient of players, and his style dominates the ball more than making players around him better. He also is a risk for a turnover at any moment. Morris shows an entirely different style. He may not rack up the assists that a true floor general will have, and direct the action, but he will make the smart pass at the right time. Coming here it is clear some part of his job will be as a Wes Jr on the floor. Teaching and shaping the guys around him to fit the system that Morris played well in.

I'm not too worried about cliques.

Beal has played best when he is able to play with a true PG. His improved ballhandling is a nice weapon as an option, but he struggled in the past trying to carry the team. It earned him some nice stats at times, but never carried the team to wins. I think now that he has made his money, he doesn't have to gun for point totals. I expect he can add back in the skill set that earned him acclaim in the first place. He has never been a vocal leader, never demanded to carry the team. Brad was coveted by other teams in part because he has played his best as a team player, a guy who can fit in next to any star because he can play either with the ball or without as needed. At a quarter billion dollars, locked in for the next half decade, he can work on becoming the ultimate team player. This is his team, not in as much as he has to carry the weight, but in that some part of his role will be teaching, setting up other players for success, etc.

In part that means mentoring Johnny Davis. Brad used to get injured a few weeks a year before he figured out his nutrition and training. Davis plays a similar attacking style, though without that sweet outside shot Brad used to have. High energy, high effort, go go go. If Beal can show the offball motion that he used to run (literally run, where player tracking data showed that Beal traveled more miles per game than any other player in the league) then these two can trade off in running opponents ragged. I like that we added Taj who knows how to set a tough screen. If Taj can show Rui/Deni/Kuz/Vernon Carey how to thug it up a little as screen setters, then they can make a bad day for opposing defenders. Beal and Davis trading off (as Davis learns and gets comfortable) will allow Beal not to expend so much energy desperately trying to score all the points. He will have more gas in the tank to play hard on defense, as he has sometimes shown in the past. Likewise Morris showing Davis how to play with the ball and off the ball both, will help him as well. Shoot, Davis is tough and strong, I can see him working well with Beal by setting guard screens, and punishing picks when running through them defending the pick and roll.

Delon Wright will be 30 this year. He has been a solid back-up every year of his career. No complaints, no fiery personality demanding the ball, simply efficiently getting the job done. If anything offensively you would want him to be more aggressive, but his strength is that he forces nothing. Plays defense, hits shots, takes care of the ball.

Kispert is a smart player who came into the league with experience and training. He can play with and next to anybody and looks like an ideal fit on offense for what Wes likes to run. Likewise Deni who will fit better if he gets an outside shot or a finishing move in the paint, but still finds ways to improve the team when he plays.

The only question I have is on Will Barton, who tends to let it fly whenever he touches the ball. At 31 coming into the year he doesn't strictly match the youth movement at the other positions. As a 71 game starter last year, he might not want to play as an attack dog off the bench. On the other hand he played as a starting 2 guard by default due to injury, and here it is clear he's not expecting to displace Quarterbillion Brad. The Beallionaire. Still, Monte Morris' familiarity with Barton should help both. Likewise Wes' understanding of his game.

Anyway, looking at it before the season I get the feeling that we have a strong mix of players who know their role. Less struggle this year than the Spencer/Trez/Beal mix. Looks to me like Wes has a number of parts that he can mix and match freely to sort out what wins. The one thing I feel like we lack is a true back-up for what Porzingis does well. And we are deep in finesse forwards more than power forwards. Unless Rui takes ownership of that role. We will see.

[doclinkin]

I agree with much of this. I really felt that Wes Jr. really understands how to utilize Porzingis.

I just can't get over the feeling that this scheme can be implemented with or without Beal. I've just lost hope that Beal can be an efficient scorer anymore, whatever the role. He just doesn't shoot very well. And since he isn't bringing great defense either, how much is he helping? I feel like the only real positive he brings is off-the-bounce shot creation, which hopefully won't be very necessary when Porzingis is in the game and we are running our sets.

I'd absolutely love it if Beal could be Curry-light, with off-ball movement and a quick release to freak out defenses even when he doesn't get the ball. But his disturbing collapse in 3-point shooting does not give me much hope.

I don't think Beal needs to be Curry-esque in any way. There is no chance he is worth his $250m really. But if he were a cheaper player then he would be a good fit for much of what Wes might be running. If you imagine Brad on any Euro team in the Olympics you can see how he would be an excellent fit. He is a smart player who makes good decisions on and off the ball. This is Beal's team less in the sense that he has to boss people around, and more that all wins and losses will point towards him. It is up to him now to simply play the best smartest brand of basketball he can, and to try to bring that out in all the players around him. Teaching, taking a step back when necessary, working his tail off on whichever side of the ball needs him most. He will be getting paid to exemplify how to be a team player, more than beating the guy in front of him every night of the week. It will be up to him to make it worth it. Impossible, maybe, but he can do better and has in the past. In the past we have seen Beal play selflessly. When his own shot is not falling he still rebounds and passes and acts as a decoy for other players.

In the past his 3 ball was a weapon, but without the John Wall effect he hasn't gotten open shots. Used to be he had a step back and a side step that moved like 6-7 feet to get free, but with the defensive changes he is less of a threat to drive (no fear of whistles) and opponents can play up on him might tighter. Still he has had no 3pt shooting around him for the past few years. So teams could feel free to load up on him. Adding Porzingis strengthens Beal's off ball game. Teams cannot crowd the lane to prevent Beal from driving. They have to send a Big to Porzingis because he still shoots efficiently in the high post, even though his 3 ball took a year off. He hits about 50% with that long midrange jumper. Better if guarded by a wing player.

With shooters around the arc defenders can't cheat off the outside to shade the middle. This frees Beal on curls and cuts and double screens to make a quick change of direction and attack the lane instead. So long as we have smart passers from 2-3 positions then everybody is a threat in the paint. Beal, Johnny D, Kispert, Kuzma, Rui, Porzingis, Gafford, Taj Gibson, even Monte Morris. All are threats off the ball if they make a sharp cut to the paint.

My chief concern is that we added no approximate back-up for Porzingis as a high post center. I can see things working with him in the game. Not as much if he's out. Right now if we need someone to understudy at that position the best we've got is Kyle Kuzma.

[nate33]

If I was Wes, my rotation and (average) minutes split would be as follows:

Morris (24)/Wright (18)/Beal (6)
Beal (26)/Barton (12)/Davis (10)
Deni (28)/Barton (10)/Kispert (10)
Kuzma (26)/Rui (22)
Porzinga (28)/Gafford (20)

This hinges on Deni getting his 3 pt shooting to reasonable percentages (36-38%). The idea would be to play 28 minutes minimum with 3 guys over 6’8” for defensive purposes, particularly when 6’2” Morris is on court. I’d try to get Davis and Kispert as many enough minutes as possible but the glut at SG/SF/PF is a challenge…

I don't dislike your rotation. What do you think Wes' actual rotation will look like?

I fear the following:

Morris (28)/Wright (20)
Beal (34)/Barton (10)/Wright (4)
Barton (22)/Deni (18)/Kispert (8)
Kuzma (32)/Rui (16)
Porzinga (30)/Gafford (18)

With Davis DNP most games…and 3-guard line-ups galore

I do expect Davis to get DNP's early on when everyone is healthy, but I don't see why Wes would give Wright minutes at SG when he already has Barton to handle the non-Beal minutes.

Wes seems to like Kispert and Avdija, Kispert in particular. I don't see him benching Kispert ultimately just to allow Wright to steal a few extra minutes at shooting guard. Who the hell is Wright anyway? He is a career 20 mpg bench player on a sub-MLE deal. I don't think he'll have any real seniority over Kispert or Avdija.

I think your rotation isn't far off, but Wright gets no minutes at SG, Barton gets more minutes at SG and less at SF. And Avdija and Kispert pick up the extra SF minutes. I also think Kuzma will play a little less than 32 So it's:

Morris (28)/Wright (20)
Beal (34)/Barton (14)
Barton (14)/Deni (18)/Kispert (16)
Kuzma (30)/Rui (18)
Porzinga (30)/Gafford (18)

I actually don't hate this all that much except I'd like to see Morris and Wright inverted. I mostly just want to ensure that Deni, Kispert and Rui are getting a good 16-20 minutes a game from Day 1. As long as they get those minutes, they will continue to improve and they will get the opportunity to prove that they are worthy of starting. If they are clearly better than Barton and Kuzma, then they will take over the starting role.

I don't see Davis getting anything but garbage time minutes for the first 15 games or so. Eventually, someone will get hurt and Davis will get his opportunity. If Davis proves that he deserves to stay in the rotation, then that is a pleasant problem to have.

[nate33]

My chief concern is that we added no approximate back-up for Porzingis as a high post center. I can see things working with him in the game. Not as much if he's out. Right now if we need someone to understudy at that position the best we've got is Kyle Kuzma.

Yeah, I think we will have to run a Porzingis-centric high post offense when Porzingis is in the game, and a more typical high-pick-and-roll offense when Gafford is in. This is why I'm pushing to start Wright and have Morris - the more natural PG - to run the 2nd unit.

Another option would be to play Porzingis 3 shifts in each half rather than two. He can on for 6, off for 4, on for 6, off for 4, on for 4. (Westbrook ran this rotation with Skiles.) That allows Porzingis to be in the game with the 2nd unit who have less shot creation, and it allows our best pick-and-roll ball handlers (Beal and Morris) to share more minutes with Gafford. It also allows Gafford to do his high energy thing for two 4-minute stretches per half instead of one 8-minute stretch where he gets winded.

[gesa2]

Love the analysis on this page. Doc your optimism and imagination of roles and a potential basis for good offense gets me excited to watch us next year. And PIF’s subsequent reality check is accurate - we can’t expect to be actually good. I’d rather we had signed and traded Beal and started over. But at least interesting and mediocre is a lot better than fractured failing and disappointing, as a fan that’s what I hope for for now. If we make it somehow to a 6th seed or something it would have to be on the basis of Wes Jr, and at least a decent defense (15th - 20th ranking is likely our best case scenario right). I mean where else are we likely to see a leap? Steady improvement from some of Deni Gaff and Kispert sure but it’s hard to see any becoming a borderline all star or anything. Kuz is likely at his peak right now, it’d be an upset if he changed his spots. Porzingas - if we got 60 games similar to the 17 we got last year that would be a real leap I guess. If we get the Beal of 2 years ago great but that wasn’t enough to get out of the play in game. I love Davis but he’s still going to be a negative player as a rookie, everyone is. So our hope for something more than interesting has to be from the system, from Wes. He’s still our biggest unknown.

Barring a trade for John Collins which I’m still hoping for. He seems unappreciated by Atlanta despite producing really well.

[NatP4]

My chief concern is that we added no approximate back-up for Porzingis as a high post center. I can see things working with him in the game. Not as much if he's out. Right now if we need someone to understudy at that position the best we've got is Kyle Kuzma.

Yeah, I think we will have to run a Porzingis-centric high post offense when Porzingis is in the game, and a more typical high-pick-and-roll offense when Gafford is in. This is why I'm pushing to start Wright and have Morris - the more natural PG - to run the 2nd unit.

Another option would be to play Porzingis 3 shifts in each half rather than two. He can on for 6, off for 4, on for 6, off for 4, on for 4. (Westbrook ran this rotation with Skiles.) That allows Porzingis to be in the game with the 2nd unit who have less shot creation, and it allows our best pick-and-roll ball handlers (Beal and Morris) to share more minutes with Gafford. It also allows Gafford to do his high energy thing for two 4-minute stretches per half instead of one 8-minute stretch where he gets winded.

John Collins.

[dckingsfan]

Love the analysis on this page. Doc your optimism and imagination of roles and a potential basis for good offense gets me excited to watch us next year...

Agreed. Actually, for me it is the only reason to follow the Wizards at this point.

[payitforward]

...interesting and mediocre is a lot better than fractured failing and disappointing, as a fan that’s what I hope for for now....

To me, "mediocre" means something like "average." & the average NBA record is, obviously, 41-41. It's a considerable stretch to imagine us getting there. In fact, to imagine us getting there a person has to kind of forget how bad we have been in recent years.

Brad had a terrible year last season. But, he was excellent in the 3 previous seasons. Yet, our record over that period was 86-98 (like a 38 win season). So the source of hope must require more than that Brad return to his previous level of play.

In major part, it must depend on thinking of Porzingis as a real difference maker, a guy whose presence significantly increases a team's wins. But, Porzingis has never been that in his career to date, so we're counting on something new from him.

KP did look good for us last year, but we went 7-10 with him in the lineup, so a modest amount of caution may be indicated.

Not to mention that we have to hope Brad recovers easily & completely from his wrist injury.

...I mean where else are we likely to see a leap?...

You leave out the only two verifiable upgrades so far! Both Monte Morris & Delon Wright are big improvements.

I'd say the 2 of them playing the 4000 minutes Spencer, Ish, Neto & Holiday played would be the most reliable source of an increase in our wins.

In short, if all goes extremely well, maybe we can actually make it to 40 wins. OTOH, all never goes extremely well! In fact, we need to be better as a team this year just to equal last year's record -- b/c we started out 10-3.

More importantly...

...Steady improvement from some of Deni Gaff and Kispert sure but it’s hard to see any becoming a borderline all star or anything. Kuz is likely at his peak right now, it’d be an upset if he changed his spots....I love Davis but he’s still going to be a negative player as a rookie, everyone is....

Kuz is Kuz. But we need more than "steady improvement" from Rui, Deni & Kispert. We need one of them to turn into a significantly positive NBA player.

[NatP4]

Avdija and Kispert are safe bets to be better this year.

You also continue to cite our record with Porzingis last year, while Beal was out and we were basically tanking and playing without a starting PG.

We also gave 500 minutes to a completely useless Bertans who shot 35% in that stretch and had horrendous on/off numbers. Johnny Davis is easily going to be an upgrade there.

Unseld could also improve in year 2. Not counting on it, but he could....

I’m not super optimistic with Kuzma&Barton on the roster, both will almost certainly play over 2000+ minutes and be terrible and block younger players. That will lead to a mediocre 38ish win season most likely.

Porzingis will miss 30% of the season and Beal could never get back to his 25/26/27 year old form, in which case he’s basically just an above average starter getting paid like he’s prime Lebron James.

The roster is also one Avdija injury away from having ZERO plus defenders on the wing, which is obviously a must have in this NBA.

[gesa2]

PIF you did see where I said I agreed with you right? Cause you then took “mediocre”, defined it as about average, and argued that we won’t be exactly .500 or better. You have to let the belief go that only you fail to see the Wizards with rose colored glasses.
Per the Cambridge English dictionary:
Mediocre: just acceptable but not good; not good enough
And by the way- I would argue that compared to good playoff teams we have updated our PG rotation only from execrable to mediocre. With your belief in Monte maybe that’ll give you something to argue against!