Wizards Board COVID-19 Thread

[Zonkerbl]

I hope no one was swayed by Nate's nonsense argument that the difference in death rates for trump-voting counties are higher because they are older.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

"The trend was robust, even when controlling for age, which is the primary demographic risk of COVID-19 mortality."

Death rates are higher in Trump voting counties because Trump supporting officials have encouraged their domestic terrorist followers to strap on covid laced suicide vests and blow themselves up in public with the express intention of killing innocent people.

[Ruzious]

"Perhaps the most highly vaccinated large county in America, according to New York Times data, is Montgomery County, Md., just outside the District of Columbia. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show 93 percent of those 12 and older there are fully vaccinated, compared to around 70 percent nationally. The number dying over the past week is eight times as high nationally — 3.4 per 1 million — as it is in Montgomery County — 0.4 per 1 million — even as Montgomery County is near some virus hotspots."

I think Montgomery County was an initial hotspot at the start of the pandemic.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/04/big-counties-are-proving-how-vaccination-works/

Kudo's to my Montgomery County. Most of us here actually care about human beings. What a concept.

[nate33]

I hope no one was swayed by Nate's nonsense argument that the difference in death rates for trump-voting counties are higher because they are older.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

"The trend was robust, even when controlling for age, which is the primary demographic risk of COVID-19 mortality."

Death rates are higher in Trump voting counties because Trump supporting officials have encouraged their domestic terrorist followers to strap on covid laced suicide vests and blow themselves up in public with the express intention of killing innocent people.

I said age was a factor, and I'm sure it is. I never said that there would be no difference if the study was controlled for age. Obviously, vaccines reduce deaths. Those that vaccinate more, particularly among high risk groups, are going to have fewer deaths. It's annoying that everyone in this thread is trying to label me an anti-vaxer. Clearly, vaccines make sense, particularly for those in high risk groups, and I've never opposed them.

As I said, it would be more illuminating if they gave us the age adjusted numbers. Telling me that "the trend was robust, even when controlling for age" is nice. But I'd like to know how robust. How much of the difference was age versus vaccines?

[FAH1223]

Going to Jamaica this week for work. Got a PCR COVID test for the first time in a year and I had to wait nearly 2 hours. But I got my negative result back quickly. Now I don't have to quarantine in Kingston

[Kanyewest]

"Perhaps the most highly vaccinated large county in America, according to New York Times data, is Montgomery County, Md., just outside the District of Columbia. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show 93 percent of those 12 and older there are fully vaccinated, compared to around 70 percent nationally. The number dying over the past week is eight times as high nationally — 3.4 per 1 million — as it is in Montgomery County — 0.4 per 1 million — even as Montgomery County is near some virus hotspots."

I think Montgomery County was an initial hotspot at the start of the pandemic.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/04/big-counties-are-proving-how-vaccination-works/

Kudo's to my Montgomery County. Most of us here actually care about human beings. What a concept.

Yeah, there's even some differences within Montgomery County. Zip codes of Bethesda for instance are performing even much better which only has slightly more deaths per 100,000 than Japan (ie one zip code has 53 deaths and its assumed population is 35,000). https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/covid19/data/case-counts.html

[Kanyewest]

Trump met with 500 people between his first positive Covid test and his trip to the hospital https://thehill.com/regulation/administration/584460-trump-came-in-contact-with-500-people-between-first-positive-test

[verbal8]

Trump met with 500 people between his first positive Covid test and his trip to the hospital https://thehill.com/regulation/administration/584460-trump-came-in-contact-with-500-people-between-first-positive-test

It isn't inaccurate to call it the Trump Virus

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

"Perhaps the most highly vaccinated large county in America, according to New York Times data, is Montgomery County, Md., just outside the District of Columbia. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show 93 percent of those 12 and older there are fully vaccinated, compared to around 70 percent nationally. The number dying over the past week is eight times as high nationally — 3.4 per 1 million — as it is in Montgomery County — 0.4 per 1 million — even as Montgomery County is near some virus hotspots."

I think Montgomery County was an initial hotspot at the start of the pandemic.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/04/big-counties-are-proving-how-vaccination-works/

Kudo's to my Montgomery County. Most of us here actually care about human beings. What a concept.

Here here. Grew up in MoCo.

[doclinkin]

I highly recommend The Premontion by Michael Lewis on the breakdown of the public health system/CDC and the inability to effectively catch and corner this pandemic before it took off.

https://www.amazon.com/Premonition-Pandemic-Story-Michael-Lewis/dp/0393881555

Quick and compelling. I finished it in 2 days.

[Zonkerbl]

More evidence suggesting Trump and his idiots are murdering their most reliable voters

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

[dckingsfan]

Vaccines are responsible for ~1.1 million less US deaths and 10.3 million less hospitalizations.

https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2021/dec/us-covid-19-vaccination-program-one-year-how-many-deaths-and

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[nate33]

This is from the CDC website - which is a much better source than any poster here:

COVID-19 vaccination is a safer way to help build protection

Children ages 5 years and older and adults who are eligible should get vaccinated regardless of whether they already had COVID-19. Evidence is emerging that people get better protection by being fully vaccinated compared with previously having a COVID-19 infection. One study showed that unvaccinated people who already had COVID-19 are more than two times as likely than fully vaccinated people to get COVID-19 again.

Here's a link to that study https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm?s_cid=mm7032e1_e&ACSTrackingID=USCDC_921-DM63289&ACSTrackingLabel=MMWR%20Early%20Release%20-%20Vol.%2070%2C%20August%206%2C%202021&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM63289

Did you believe our government when they told you that Russia colluded with Trump?
Did you believe our government when they told you that Covid surely had natural origins?
Did you believe our government when they told you that Putin put out a bounty on U.S. citizens?
Did you believe the CDC when they told you that vaccination prevents infection?

And the "one study" they referred to suggesting vaccination is better than natural immunity is a ludicrous paper from a Kentucky hospital with a sample size of 235. There is a massive trove of data from entire countries like Israel, Qatar, Sweden and the UK demonstrating with sample sizes in the millions that natural immunity is better and longer lasting than vaccination. It's not even a debate.

[Ruzious]

This is from the CDC website - which is a much better source than any poster here:

COVID-19 vaccination is a safer way to help build protection

Children ages 5 years and older and adults who are eligible should get vaccinated regardless of whether they already had COVID-19. Evidence is emerging that people get better protection by being fully vaccinated compared with previously having a COVID-19 infection. One study showed that unvaccinated people who already had COVID-19 are more than two times as likely than fully vaccinated people to get COVID-19 again.

Here's a link to that study https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm?s_cid=mm7032e1_e&ACSTrackingID=USCDC_921-DM63289&ACSTrackingLabel=MMWR%20Early%20Release%20-%20Vol.%2070%2C%20August%206%2C%202021&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM63289

Did you believe our government when they told you that Russia colluded with Trump?
Did you believe our government when they told you that Covid surely had natural origins?
Did you believe our government when they told you that Putin put out a bounty on U.S. citizens?
Did you believe the CDC when they told you that vaccination prevents infection?

And the "one study" they referred to suggesting vaccination is better than natural immunity is a ludicrous paper from a Kentucky hospital with a sample size of 235. There is a massive trove of data from entire countries like Israel, Qatar, Sweden and the UK demonstrating with sample sizes in the millions that natural immunity is better and longer lasting than vaccination. It's not even a debate.

Are you serious? You're really blatantly making this a political discussion rather than a scientific one? It's amazing that you don't understand how wrong it is to do that - not to mention how stupid it is.

I think you know you crossed a line and just don't care.

[Ruzious]

This is from the CDC website - which is a much better source than any poster here:

COVID-19 vaccination is a safer way to help build protection

Children ages 5 years and older and adults who are eligible should get vaccinated regardless of whether they already had COVID-19. Evidence is emerging that people get better protection by being fully vaccinated compared with previously having a COVID-19 infection. One study showed that unvaccinated people who already had COVID-19 are more than two times as likely than fully vaccinated people to get COVID-19 again.

Here's a link to that study https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm?s_cid=mm7032e1_e&ACSTrackingID=USCDC_921-DM63289&ACSTrackingLabel=MMWR%20Early%20Release%20-%20Vol.%2070%2C%20August%206%2C%202021&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM63289

Did you believe our government when they told you that Russia colluded with Trump?
Did you believe our government when they told you that Covid surely had natural origins?
Did you believe our government when they told you that Putin put out a bounty on U.S. citizens?
Did you believe the CDC when they told you that vaccination prevents infection?

And the "one study" they referred to suggesting vaccination is better than natural immunity is a ludicrous paper from a Kentucky hospital with a sample size of 235. There is a massive trove of data from entire countries like Israel, Qatar, Sweden and the UK demonstrating with sample sizes in the millions that natural immunity is better and longer lasting than vaccination. It's not even a debate.

This is still an unacceptable place for your post, imo.

[closg00]

My brothers kid and my co-workers son have COVID, both are vaccinated, Omicron is blasting-through everything.

[dckingsfan]

This is from the CDC website - which is a much better source than any poster here:



Here's a link to that study https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm?s_cid=mm7032e1_e&ACSTrackingID=USCDC_921-DM63289&ACSTrackingLabel=MMWR%20Early%20Release%20-%20Vol.%2070%2C%20August%206%2C%202021&deliveryName=USCDC_921-DM63289

Did you believe our government when they told you that Russia colluded with Trump?
Did you believe our government when they told you that Covid surely had natural origins?
Did you believe our government when they told you that Putin put out a bounty on U.S. citizens?
Did you believe the CDC when they told you that vaccination prevents infection?

And the "one study" they referred to suggesting vaccination is better than natural immunity is a ludicrous paper from a Kentucky hospital with a sample size of 235. There is a massive trove of data from entire countries like Israel, Qatar, Sweden and the UK demonstrating with sample sizes in the millions that natural immunity is better and longer lasting than vaccination. It's not even a debate.

This is still an unacceptable place for your post, imo.

The post starts with political strawmen and unrelated statements to the follow-on conclusion. That of course has nothing to do with the policy perspective.

The question from a policy perspective does it make sense to get your population vaccinated. And if so, why?

The answer is clearly yes in Delta times (and was in Alpha times as well). It is much better to be vaccinated and then get Covid to reduce hospitalizations, deaths and related deaths. Note: We don't know if that stands in Omicron days.

[dckingsfan]

My brothers kid and my co-workers son have COVID, both are vaccinated, Omicron is blasting-through everything.

Guessing/hoping that they are mild cases?

[nate33]

This is still an unacceptable place for your post, imo.

Well, here is another unacceptable post for you. All this comes from the CDC:

Study: Multicenter prospective cohort (SIREN) with routine RT-PCR and antibody testing every 2-4 weeks - United Kingdom
Sample Size: 8278 Hospital workers with previous infection, median age 46
Results: SARS-CoV-2 infection offered 84% protection against infection (93% against symptomatic infection) at 7-months following primary infection. Mean interval to reinfection was 200 days. 50% of cases were symptomatic.

Study: Retrospective observational study (national reporting system) - Austria
Sample Size: 14,840 with previous infection.
Results: Odds ratio (OR) for reinfection amongst COVID-19 survivors compared to general population was .09. Mean time to reinfection was 212 days. Noted 5 hospitalizations and one death amongst 40 “tentative” reinfections, though death was thought to be unrelated

Study: Retrospective cohort study (health system) - United States
Sample Size: 8,845 with previous infection
Results: Protection against repeat infection was 81.8% overall and 84.5% against symptomatic infection. Average time to reinfection was 139 days; protection increased over time. 50% of possible reinfections were symptomatic.

Study: Population-level observational study (using laboratory-system) - Italy
Sample Size: 1579 with previous infection
Results: Incidence of reinfections: 1.0 per 100,000 person days compared to 15.1 per 100,000 person days for primary infections. Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.07 (93% reduction in risk). Mean interval between primary infection and reinfection was >230 days Of 5 reinfections, 1 required hospitalization

Study: National-level observational study (using national laboratory) - Qatar
Sample Size: 43,044 with positive antibodies from infection
Results: Calculated incidence rate of reinfection as 0.66 per 10,000 person-weeks compared to 13.69 per 10,000 person weeks for primary infection. Amongst antibody-positive individuals, protection was estimated at 95.2% for up to 7 months of follow-up. Incidence of reinfections did not increase with time. Reinfections were less severe than primary infections (none were critical or fatal)

Study: Prospective Cohort - United Kingdom
Sample Size: 1265 with positive IgG antibodies
Results: Incidence of reinfection: 0.13 per 10,000 days at risk compared to 1.09 per 10,000 days at risk for seronegative participants aIRR of 0.11 (89% reduction in risk). All reinfections were asymptomatic

So natural immunity provided 89-95% protection in all studies except one U.S. outlier showing only 82% protection. And the biggest studies with the largest sample sizes (Qatar and Austria) showed better than 90% effectiveness against infection. Furthermore, several of the studies remarked that natural immunity last longer and did not decrease over time. In all studies that tracked it, protection from hospitalization was even more robust than protection from infection. Most reinfections were asymptomatic. The Qatar study of 43,044 remarked that NONE were critical or fatal. The Italy study of 1579 had only 1 hospitalization. The Austria study of 14,840 had 5 hospitalizations and 1 death that was deemed unrelated.

Compare that to vaccinated immunity which is now running at about 30-50% protection against infection after 6 months.

[FAH1223]

Bradley Beal is playing with fire continuing to be out there unvaccinated.

His natural immunity will have waned by now along with that of the players that haven't gotten booster shots yet.

I just lost a friend of mine to the delta variant a week ago, not wishing this nonsense on anybody when it can be avoided.

Early 50s, ardent anti-vaxxer, left behind a two year old daughter.

There's also been a high profile case of an athlete in FC Bayern's Joshua Kimmich who is one top player for one of the best football clubs in the world.

He was adamant about not getting vaccinated concerned about the longterm effects of mRNA vaccines and is now struggling to get in the field due to lung infiltrations he suffered as a result of an infection over a month ago.

I will never understand why an athlete would accept the risk of impact to their cardiovascular system when even a small percentage drop in aerobic capacity will have a serious effect on their ability to perform.

Nonsense. Having recently-acquired natural immunity, Beal as it at virtually zero risk of any type of serious infection. If he does get a second infection, it will be totally asymptomatic. The only "risk" he is taking is the possible risk of a positive test and having to miss some games due to Covid protocols despite being asymptomatic.

There is no reason for him to take on the non-negligible risk of myocarditis or blood clots. Yes, the vaccine risk is very low, but the risk of a Covid infection causing any type of serious health problems is statistically zero. I posted the Qatar data in the Covid thread. Of 800,000 people with natural immunity, there were 1304 reinfections in the following 14 months, with almost all being extremely mild or totally asymptomatic. There were a grand total of 4 reinfections which required hospitalization and 0 required ICU. And those 4 hospitalized all were older with serious preconditions.

People need to get it through their heads that a previous infection, particularly a recent one is EVEN BETTER than vaccination. There is no justification whatsoever for our policies that do not recognize previous infection. It is grossly anti-scientific. At least some European nations are finally recognizing natural immunity.

Question to you Nate,

If you have natural immunity and get vaxxed and boosted... any downsides? A few of the players have been vaxxed like Deni, Rui, Dinwiddie who all got COVID in the past year to 18 months