Presti's Tree Reaches DC: The Official Will Dawkins Thread

[Frichuela]

On our D side, it's obvious Sarr, Bilal and Kyshawn are the not the ones to blame. I'll start with Keefe obviously and the follow with CJ, Middleton, Kispert, Bub and Cam in no particular order.

[DCZards]

How has this FO drafted?

Verdict is still out on Bilal, imo, due primarily to injuries.

Sarr is playing very well thus far this season. His improvement/development is obvious. He’ll continue to get bigger and stronger and better.

Bub has been a disappointment, especially when we expected we’d see improvement this season.

Given that he was the 24th pick, Ky George has exceeded expectations. He’d probably be a lottery pick in a redraft.

Far too early to make any call regarding Tre and Will Riley.

[closg00]

Coming in at #9

Watch on YouTube

[leswizards]

I hate defending this front office, and maybe I should leave it to others to do, but:

I am certain by the time the season is over, Bub will be shooting somewhere between 43 and 53% in 2PA, and somewhere between 33 and 43% on 3PA. Additionally, this front office has a first round pick and 2 second round picks (if they haven’t traded them already) to redeem themselves if Bub never pans out.

Deni is a good but not great player who plays on a mediocre team that might miss the playoffs.

[payitforward]

... I'm in shock!

[doclinkin]

[
I think he added value by asking a very pertinent question. It is a question I would love to have the answer to.

But before I get into that let me describe what I perceive this front office’s draft strategy has been to date: they have seemed to value young players whose bodies are still growing and they seem to not care that all of these players had mediocre to below average stats (compared against their teammates) on those teams that they played with before entering the NBA, nor do they seem to care that the teams ranged from only slightly better than average to in some cases awful. To this front office, the simple fact that they were still aging would allow them to blossom into great nba players.

Let’s not argue about that strategy, let’s just assume that it might work out.

But, if it doesn’t, per TGW question, when will we acknowledge it.

The answer to the question was determined by your recent post acknowledging how deep the tank race is this year.

The team can be fairly judged when we actually try to start winning. When wins are no longer a detriment to the team’s success, but a measure of it.

You misunderstood my post if you thought I was endorsing this front office’s strategy. It was in fact a condemnation of this front office’s strategy. Ie it would be catastrophic to lose a first round pick after how badly this front office has drafted.

I prefer to think of it as your slowly dawning understanding of the reality of our situation.

A thing that Dawkins et al had assessed as soon as they got the job: given the junk we had to start with the best way to long term success is to draft and grow our own players.

Getting out from under Beals contract was imperative. Done. And just in time if you look at what it has cost the teams who’ve picked him up.

Making this as our first move made it clear we were selling off assets. Not trying to contend. Rebuilding. Everything else followed from there. We were going to build through the draft.

This was complicated by the fact that our lotto pick was encumbered. If we didn’t lose for multiple years in a row, we skip out on a possible franchise player.

So. Everything followed from there: lose. Build through the draft. Pick the kind of players that may eventually be good, but not add instant wins. So: underclassmen. Smart. More talented than skilled. Search for upside. Bank on player development. Sell out hard on this strategy and harvest as many draft picks as possible.

Nobody hits on every draft pick. The league doesn’t add 60 players a year that stick. If you look at the hit rate a minority of players in any draft class last past their first contract. An even smaller portion earn a deal after that. Not even talking about their likelihood of stardom. Simply producing enough to stay in the league.

There are various studies on the value of a draft pick. This was the first I ever saw:

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

But no pick guarantees success. Whereas one good hit can make a team. So the point is to maximize your % chances of getting that one hit.

That part of the strategy is in play. We have traded for many swings at the piñata. More % chances of the franchise changing pick. Whether that’s selling players for picks or taking on salary for picks or trading multiple 2nd rounders to climb the draft ladder or even shipping beloved players like Gafford or the other guy, the kid from Israel, for draft capital, the team has committed hard to the strategy.

So. How can you tell if it’s working? Ultimately by wins of course. But given that, as you admit, we need to lose this year for the best chance at an unmissable pick. Best opportunity for a probable star.

Can’t control luck. But you can give yourself as many chances as possible to get lucky. This year is a significant opportunity where it looks like there may be 3-4 stars at the top. Last year had 2-3. The year before has maybe one and we might have nabbed him.

But until it no longer profits us to lose you can’t hate on the strategy that aggregates all those %s into the best chance of lucking out.

[doclinkin]

I hate defending this front office, and maybe I should leave it to others to do, but:

I am certain by the time the season is over, Bub will be shooting somewhere between 43 and 53% in 2PA, and somewhere between 33 and 43% on 3PA. Additionally, this front office has a first round pick and 2 second round picks (if they haven’t traded them already) to redeem themselves if Bub never pans out.

Deni is a good but not great player who plays on a mediocre team that might miss the playoffs.

Quoting this in amazement. I hope you’re right. I have a solid sense Bub will shoot better than he is. Though I wonder if that turnaround happens over the course of one year. Interesting.

[badinage]

I’m wondering whether Bub did too much lifting this summer, and put on more mass (in an effort to withstand pounding), and this has affected his shot. And also his ability to move.

As for Deni …

He might not be a great player (i.e., a superstar), but he’s not merely a good player. There are levels to this, as the ballers say. Also, he’s not done improving. He’s the best and most complete player on that team, which is poised for a breakout.

As for the season … it can’t end fast enough. That’s not a complaint about the process. Or about Will Dawkins. Or anyone. But this is just miserable. If this were 2K, we could just do a simulation and be done with it. Hoping for more (and more frequent) glimmers soon …

[AFM]

Watch on YouTube

ROTATION SHRINK INCOMING!!!!!!!!

[closg00]

Updated draft grades for 2024:

Alex Sarr A
Bub C-
Kyshawn A
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-grades-sophomores-2024-draft-risacher-sheppard-castle-bronny-knecht/

[payitforward]

I'm in no hurry to dismiss Bub Carrington!
No more than I would have dismissed Alex Sarr based on an absolutely godawful rookie year.

Let's give this kid a chance to get his game together, ok?

[Jay81]

yea bub has to play as much as possible. His tank commanding might be the most valuable asset he gives us

[TGW]

yea bub has to play as much as possible. His tank commanding might be the most valuable asset he gives us

I remember reading how Carrington making that buzzer beater shot was good for the team, even though it cost them a spot in the draft, which screwed them out of Bailey. Now he's the lieutenant of the tank.

[mhd]

yea bub has to play as much as possible. His tank commanding might be the most valuable asset he gives us

I remember reading how Carrington making that buzzer beater shot was good for the team, even though it cost them a spot in the draft, which screwed them out of Bailey. Now he's the lieutenant of the tank.

Nah, he's the tank general. CJ may be close to done, but as we saw in the Pistons game, he can get hot really quickly. He'd still play minutes on contenders as a bench piece. Bub is the worst player in the NBA who actually get PT.

[closg00]

Tank commander and time waster, Bub is wasting the development time of the young core as they flounder without a real leader on offense. Dunno if we pick up a PG in the next draft, or we give Will or AJ a try at some point.