truwizfan4evr wrote:I think Beal,MKG, and Thomas Robinson will be in the tier 2 behind Anthony Davis no way there tier 4 in my opinon. Each one of them has all star potential.
I'm not going to get my knickers in a bunch over it. At the end of the day all these things are just tools. I feel like they become helpful as a tiebreaker when all other considerations have given players relatively even, i think they are helpful in organizing tiers, but i also think they are fundamentally flawed because in the end, the metrics come from an environment that isn't controled. Different colleges, different conferences, different opponents, different systems, differing demands, and interests (as Ford and others have mentioned, Baylor seems to do an absolutely brilliant job of not developing squat) from coaches, different schemes, different everything. It isn't the NBA, which is at least a relatively reasonable control group where you can get reliable metrics (well, except for this year), at the end of the day, the metrics in my view are just a nice means of trying to suss out who are producing illusory results, and who are actually producing legit raw numbers that have definitive meaning.
At the end of the day, what can we say about Drummond? Scouts and colleges said he was the best 18 year old in the country last summer. The courts said he was nowhere near that. Than again Andre Drummond didn't play with a selfless team w/a common goal and no controversy, a unified team with one interest and goal in mind lead by the equally selfless Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd Gilchrist, and supported by a young PG in Teague, and vets like Darius and Jones and I think Lamb. Drummond was on a clusterfluctch of a team with no leader, massive controversy, a sick and ailing coach, and a bunch of chuckers and idiots around him.
What about Bradley Beal, best 2 guard prospect in the country, went to Florida, and every scout around agreed he was misused, and not terribly well helped by their set up and system. It took till february for him to get his game in gear.
What about Sully? A year ago he was overcoming his lack of athleticism and ideal size (but wonderful rear as so many scouts have said) playing on a team w/great shooters which allowed him to truly harness his skills and play in a set up that maximized his productivity, this past year he was dinged, and had no shooters to kick out to and vice verca, and he looked far less impressive.
What about PJ3, all world talent and raw ability, but he's a beta who played his whole career in the wrong position. But PJ3 hasn't always been a beta, what other than an alpha would take the survival, and health of his younger siblings on his whole shoulders since he was a young kid because of his mothers illnesses and the recession etc? PJ3 has the ability to be an alpha, he just needs to be coached in a system where he feels the degree of responsibility to his teammates that he did to his own family.
What about Barnes? What about Zeller? Is he being downgraded because he's white, and American, and innumerable white american big men have been abject failures since the days of Shawn Bradley and even earlier. I watched him carry UNC, he's athletic, and he has a lot to his game. He's very intriguing.
There are so many interesting, very interesting situations. At the end of the day the metrics don't tell the whole story just as scouting doesnt. Scouts can become enamoured with raw measurables, and forget what the players do when the whistles blow and its game on, scouts can forget how the players mind and mental make up effects their decision making and choices, and how they see themselves (a huge reason why Crawford is such a consternation-his means of becoming confident requires such attention, and usage, that he renders himself far less valuable everytime he tries to maximize his ability-the key to Crawford is building a sense of confidence that is far less reliant on getting his shot, and rather internally motivated (as we say in education, positive reinforcement with goodies, external motivation, is not terribly useful when you stop getting goodies for doing well, developing the positive reinforcement through yourself, feeling positive about your abilities, not needing to see the ball fall through the net, could be his key).
Players are complicated, metrics and scouting and mental make up tests help organize player value into something that is as a close as possible to a realistic evaluation tool, but in the end, the human mind, and character are a mystery.
So im not too worried about the metrics, i believe MKG and Davis are singular talents, and that guys like Beal and Robinson are very good ones.
