Political Roundtable Part XXII

[dckingsfan]

I think Beto has a real chance. Cruz is a really bad candidate. Looking through the Texas districts - there aren't a lot of purples and those that are - generally are Red districts that are a Democratic long shot. It really looks like it will come down to turn out. Cruz is the type of candidate who suppresses his own turn-out. Beto is the type of candidate who convinces casual voters to vote.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ted-cruz-chastises-beto-o-000225074.html

Cruz has been consistently ahead of Beto, it makes for a good news story that polling has tightened, but Rafael wins in deep red Texas.
538 has a good article
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-trouble-is-ted-cruz-really-in/

I think this also misses the point that Beto is lifting other ships in Texas...

[stilldropin20]

nike sells a lot of golf stuff...i would guestimate that 70% of golfers are conservative. and at least 30% of those wearing basketball shoes are children of conservatives.

[JWizmentality]

If there's one thing twitter is good for is watching people roast Trumpies for burning their Nike merch.

[pancakes3]

i want to laugh at idiots burning nike merch, voting for cruz, or being pressed to pick between the words of bob woodward v. donald trump except that there are just too many of these idiots for it to be funny.

[TGW]

So Bernie bro Ayanna Presley defeated Pelosi, Deval Patrick and CBC backed capuano in Massachusetts. Great win for progressives.

Cracks me up that the pathetic CBC backs the old white guy over the black woman. That group is so useless, hypocritical, and stupid.

[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

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[queridiculo]

[Jamaaliver]

this POS is using heroin while his 2 sons died from drowning!!! Secure the borders! stop the illegal inflow of drugs!!

Read on Twitter

You have it backwards.

If Americans didn't spend billions on illegal drugs every year, there would be no drug trade. No cartels.


Our money literally fuels their drug wars.


Americans create Meth labs, grow marijuana, develop addiction to prescription painkillers, huff paint, abuse alcohol and tobacco.

WE are the problem. The drug habits of our middle and upper class citizens isn't caused by the scary latinos on the other side of the border.

It's the other way around.

[verbal8]

It will shock many to know that Texas has very politically segregated Congressional districts. There are some long shots Dems that 538 has around 20%, who may be able to pull off an upset. It may also help in the state-wide races.

I think Beto has a real chance. Cruz is a really bad candidate. Looking through the Texas districts - there aren't a lot of purples and those that are - generally are Red districts that are a Democratic long shot. It really looks like it will come down to turn out. Cruz is the type of candidate who suppresses his own turn-out. Beto is the type of candidate who convinces casual voters to vote.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ted-cruz-chastises-beto-o-000225074.html

Cruz has been consistently ahead of Beto, it makes for a good news story that polling has tightened, but Rafael wins in deep red Texas.
538 has a good article
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-trouble-is-ted-cruz-really-in/

I think this also misses the point that Beto is lifting other ships in Texas...

[TGW]

this POS is using heroin while his 2 sons died from drowning!!! Secure the borders! stop the illegal inflow of drugs!!

Read on Twitter

You have it backwards.

If Americans didn't spend billions on illegal drugs every year, there would be no drug trade. No cartels.


Our money literally fuels their drug wars.


Americans create Meth labs, grow marijuana, develop addiction to prescription painkillers, huff paint, abuse alcohol and tobacco.

WE are the problem. The drug habits of our middle and upper class citizens isn't caused by the scary latinos on the other side of the border.

It's the other way around.

That dude is clearly trolling.

[dckingsfan]

Interesting POV - I hadn't considered that... so, if another brand is smart, they start pushing the anti-Nike brand? And you divide up retail based upon politics?

I think it's a mistake to assume that the Kaepernick outrage is 100% partisan.

Outside of the Trump fringe I'm sure there are enough conservatives that can reconcile that NFL protests and anti-Americanism aren't the same thing.

Look at what happened to Under Armour after its CEO aligned himself too closely with the current president.

https://money.cnn.com/2017/08/15/investing/under-armour-kevin-plank-stephen-curry-charlottesville-trump/index.html

Who knows if Under Armour will ever recover from that ding they took after Charlottesville, their disappointing growth and the pressure they're facing in the retail market don't paint a rosy picture.

I think we are in alignment here... I think was a mistake Under Armour to align with Trump. Same with Nike aligning with Kaepernick. There are other ways of aligning with that group of buyers without splitting them - IMO. I think both examples are bad business marketing.

https://brandongaille.com/18-incredible-nike-demographic-segmentation/

Interesting...

Nike Loses $3.75 Billion in Market Cap After Colin Kaepernick Named Face of ‘Just Do It’ Ads

[queridiculo]

Interesting...

Nike Loses $3.75 Billion in Market Cap After Colin Kaepernick Named Face of ‘Just Do It’ Ads

Also an entirely meaningless measure, Nike is still up 27 points compared to this time last year.

[Ruzious]

nike sells a lot of golf stuff...i would guestimate that 70% of golfers are conservative. and at least 30% of those wearing basketball shoes are children of conservatives.

And 80% of their kids will be buying the most expensive Nikes with their over-sized allowances because all the cool sons of liberals are wearing them. All of this attention is good for business. Does anyone really think Nike doesn't know what they're doing? Seriously?

[dckingsfan]

nike sells a lot of golf stuff...i would guestimate that 70% of golfers are conservative. and at least 30% of those wearing basketball shoes are children of conservatives.

And 80% of their kids will be buying the most expensive Nikes with their over-sized allowances because all the cool sons of liberals are wearing them. All of this attention is good for business. Does anyone really think Nike doesn't know what they're doing? Seriously?

Yeah, in this particular case - I don't.

[dckingsfan]

Interesting...

Nike Loses $3.75 Billion in Market Cap After Colin Kaepernick Named Face of ‘Just Do It’ Ads

Also an entirely meaningless measure, Nike is still up 27 points compared to this time last year.

Agreed, just interesting... I thought the stock would have a short-term spike and not drop.

[verbal8]

To put the 3 Billion in perspective - it is roughly 3% of the Nike's market cap. Not saying that the market had no reaction - but it wasn't of the scale that 3 billion might imply. The way the market (over)reacts and corrects - I would expect the stock to be around where it would have ended up in about a week or two. The stock essentially "gave-back" the gains for the last month.

Another thing the market move illustrates is how big a boycott would have to be to impact Nike's bottom line. Nike's annual sales were $36 billion. You basically would have to have at least a billion dollar boycott to really move the needle. About 13 billion of sales are in the US. Assuming 1/4 of sales are to Trump voters - you would need to have a 33% boycott rate - assuming no anti-boycott sales or significant benefits from the marketing campaign.

I think it's a mistake to assume that the Kaepernick outrage is 100% partisan.

Outside of the Trump fringe I'm sure there are enough conservatives that can reconcile that NFL protests and anti-Americanism aren't the same thing.

Look at what happened to Under Armour after its CEO aligned himself too closely with the current president.

https://money.cnn.com/2017/08/15/investing/under-armour-kevin-plank-stephen-curry-charlottesville-trump/index.html

Who knows if Under Armour will ever recover from that ding they took after Charlottesville, their disappointing growth and the pressure they're facing in the retail market don't paint a rosy picture.

I think we are in alignment here... I think was a mistake Under Armour to align with Trump. Same with Nike aligning with Kaepernick. There are other ways of aligning with that group of buyers without splitting them - IMO. I think both examples are bad business marketing.

https://brandongaille.com/18-incredible-nike-demographic-segmentation/

Interesting...

Nike Loses $3.75 Billion in Market Cap After Colin Kaepernick Named Face of ‘Just Do It’ Ads

[Ruzious]

nike sells a lot of golf stuff...i would guestimate that 70% of golfers are conservative. and at least 30% of those wearing basketball shoes are children of conservatives.

And 80% of their kids will be buying the most expensive Nikes with their over-sized allowances because all the cool sons of liberals are wearing them. All of this attention is good for business. Does anyone really think Nike doesn't know what they're doing? Seriously?

Yeah, in this particular case - I don't.

In that case, I'd suggest you sell Nike stock short... but you already are selling them short.

[dckingsfan]

And 80% of their kids will be buying the most expensive Nikes with their over-sized allowances because all the cool sons of liberals are wearing them. All of this attention is good for business. Does anyone really think Nike doesn't know what they're doing? Seriously?

Yeah, in this particular case - I don't.

In that case, I'd suggest you sell Nike stock short... but you already are selling them short.

Yeah I almost placed a put - but I thought there would be short-term pressure on the upside.

And yes, I don't like trading "political stocks" that I can't predict. So, when it recovers (predicting it will over the next week), I will dump the stock (I can't take the 70 PE with the turmoil).

You may be right that Nike knows what it is doing - I think they are going to eat some shoe leather.

[closg00]

A Hope Hicks clone. These women are the "Trump Whisperers", they Co-Manage the Adult Day Care.

Read on Twitter

[closg00]

nike sells a lot of golf stuff...i would guesstimate that 70% of golfers are conservative. and at least 30% of those wearing basketball shoes are children of conservatives.

Remind everyone again what Colin Kaepernic's big crime was?