Rui Hachimura 2.0

[doclinkin]

An argument can be made for Keegan Murray being complimenting Beal and Porzingis better than Rui also..

Yes for me. If I got #1-3 I'd listen to offers to trade back a slot or two to pick up Keegan Murray. But that might be only me. I just think Murray +++ incentives could be worth it.

[Shoe]

Yeah, and the during that 11-game stretch, the Wizards had a -7.1 point differential per 48 minutes with Rui on the court, and +3.24 point differential per 48 minutes with him off the court.

Point differential in an 11 game sample size extrapolated to 48 mins? Seems dramatic.

The sample size is small, sure. But the numbers look very much like the numbers throughout all of Rui's career, so they track. And you were the one who brought up an 11-game sample size to make a point. Not me.

The per 48 minutes isn't an extrapolation so much as it's an apples-to-apples comparison. Whenever you compare players' +/- numbers, it must be on a per minute or per possession basis or it has little meaning.

What point was I making about the record? More like an observation.

I'm not knocking per 48, but it seems gratuitous on it's own. Just imo.

[Shoe]

Who cited DRTG? This is simply line-up regressions of how many points were scored for and against a crew of players in their time on the floor. Just what actually happened, not any estimation of what it means.

Woops. Saw 'net' and '2 man lineup' and thought you were talking about NETRTG.

[doclinkin]

I mean, I'm good for keeping Rui if he even shows promise next year and we can sign him on a discount. If the team personnel see things they like behind the scenes. If he is a slow learner but is putting things together then maybe his next contract is lower than it might be and he matures into a bargain at the re-sign cost. My only argument is that he has not quite been good yet. And having him on the roster would not stop me from drafting a player at his position.

[payitforward]

It’s time to squash this business of — Ted won’t allow him to be traded because he’s too enamored of the $$ from the Japanese market. What evidence — actual evidence — is there to support this? Or to support the even more speculative notion that Ted pushed Tommy to draft him because of the potential $$ of a Japanese market? Tell me. Show me.

Keep in mind that lack of evidence (about which, btw, you are completely correct) won't make the claim go away.

I've made a version of the 2d of these two claims & at least implied that I believed the first of them. But, I have no evidence. That doesn't make the question go away.

There's an old adage in legal circles: "lack of evidence is not evidence of lack." If I don't have evidence that Joe shot Harry, that does not constitute evidence that Joe did not shoot Harry.

The basic question remains: why did we choose to draft Rui so much higher than any analysts had him ranked? It's a perfectly reasonable question.

IOW, we ask these questions & make these kind of claims in cases where we think they make sense. Thus, if I ask why Tommy drafted Deni in 2020, it makes perfect sense to respond that pretty much every analyst had him going higher; i.e. they would have considered him a bargain at #9. But, that's not evidence that this is why Tommy drafted him

Similarly, if I ask myself why Tommy picked Kispert @#15 in '21, I might say to myself, "because he was such a good 3 pt. shooter in college." But I don't have any evidence that this was Tommy's reason.

I don't have access to that kind of evidence in any of those cases, because I wasn't in on the pre-draft discussions. You don't either -- none of us do.

IOW, we don't know why Tommy drafted Rui #9. We can't find a good reason. Certainly it's not a good reason to say that he did so "because he thought he was the best player on the board," which someone will certainly post in response to what I'm writing. That just requires the next question -- why would he have thought so? One way to be "best" is to bring a whole new market.

But that doesn't allow us to conclude that Rui was drafted #9 for that reason.

What we can say, at least I can, is that I never saw any pre-draft analysis that called for Rui to be drafted as high as he was. Nor did his overall college numbers jump out as justifying a really high pick. Looking at everything one knew about him post-draft, it was hard to see why he went where he did.

So, it was perfectly reasonable to wonder why it happened. Indeed, if it really was because he brought ancillary benefits, I'd go so far as to say that it's a reasonable motivation -- the NBA is a business after all.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I mean, I'm good for keeping Rui if he even shows promise next year and we can sign him on a discount. If the team personnel see things they like behind the scenes. If he is a slow learner but is putting things together then maybe his next contract is lower than it might be and he matures into a bargain at the re-sign cost. My only argument is that he has not quite been good yet. And having him on the roster would not stop me from drafting a player at his position.

Seconded. Well-thought.

At the least he's a good dude. However, valuations need to factor mindset. Rookie deal...how might past affect future in addition to the not quite good yet.



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[doclinkin]

I mean, I'm good for keeping Rui if he even shows promise next year and we can sign him on a discount. If the team personnel see things they like behind the scenes. If he is a slow learner but is putting things together then maybe his next contract is lower than it might be and he matures into a bargain at the re-sign cost. My only argument is that he has not quite been good yet. And having him on the roster would not stop me from drafting a player at his position.

Seconded. Well-thought.

At the least he's a good dude. However, valuations need to factor mindset. Rookie deal...how might past affect future in addition to the not quite good yet.

My only thing on Rui is the gamble that his trade value might be higher now, while teams are wondering how good he could be, vs later when his track record is more apparent. 'Could be' often adds juice to a trade. A guy COULD BE an all-star eventually, a guy COULD BE a HOF player. You never know. So teams pay for the fantasy guy they might be trading for. As such I would listen to trade offers, but not actively shop him. Making it clear yeah we have a logjam at forward but we think this guy is gonna be truly special, and he comes with a market attached, so any offer for him would have to be worth what he 'could be'.

Otherwise, yeah, we are the team gambling on what he could be.

[payitforward]

I doubt any GMs around the league will be harboring positive fantasies about Rui at the moment. He's played 4200 minutes in the NBA, he's well into his 25th year, & he hasn't been good so far.

His TS% has gotten better in 3 years, that's a good thing. But it's only about average even now -- & that's driven by a fantastic jump in his 3pt%.

Certainly we could shop him this off season, but we won't get much. Maybe he could be part of a multi-player trade...?

He has a guaranteed contract for next year, so there's no option to "give up on him." Who knows? Rui may improve significantly next year. But if he doesn't, if he isn't quite a lot better, there's also no particular reason to keep him.

Here's hoping he takes a giant step next year!

[doclinkin]

I doubt any GMs around the league will be harboring positive fantasies about Rui at the moment. He's played 4200 minutes in the NBA, he's well into his 25th year, & he hasn't been good so far.

His TS% has gotten better in 3 years, that's a good thing. But it's only about average even now -- & that's driven by a fantastic jump in his 3pt%.

Fantastic jumps that have been noted by the opposing broadcast teams. As I said earlier, I tend to watch the opponent feeds, curious how the team is perceived, and even the homers of the other broadcast uniformly say good things about how Rui *looks* out there.

Granted they may not influence GMs as much as they do fans, but they may influence the owners who are mega-fans. GMs do tend to have favorites, we have seen Tommy bring in guys who he liked in the draft when they became available. You have to realize, you in particular PIF, have a steely eyed objectivity that borders on the obsessive GMs are not as immune to emotion. We have seen how raw scoring #'s influence a player's $$$ whether or not they are efficient, or rebound well. Somebody is paying that money.

Many GMs and scouts trust the eye test most of all, and what I have noticed is that Rui has some kind of magnification under that eye test, where he looks better than his stats. Front offices and coaches may think they would be better at developing that raw potential. Yes he has game minutes, he also has missed chunks of 2 years, fluke testicle injury and carrying the weight of racism and the hopes of a country. But shot well from outside in the playoffs, and it has continued this year. If the intangibles Rui has on his side are primarily projection and mystery (ok and 'market') that value may be stronger now while he still has excuses going for him.

Shrug. Still, scuttlebutt was Dallas apparently wanted him in the draft. The right organization may be able to press that coal to diamonds quicker than here.

[payitforward]

1. The Mavs had the #37 pick in the 2019 draft. For sure, Rui would have been a great pick at that spot! Not the best, as it turns out; that would have been Gafford who went #38. But still....

2. We'll have to agree to disagree about GMs, doc. Make draft picks & trades based on non-objective reasons, & you'll be looking for a new job right quick.

3. Eye test preference: maybe once upon a time, but it's an awful lot "analytics" these days.

Still, it's easy to see why Rui could be tantalizing, given his physical tools. & he's obviously a smart, thoughtful kid as well. It seems obvious that his big problem is lack of "feel for the game," bbiq, the result it seems of starting late. Beyond that, maybe -- & this is speculation, no more -- there's also a lack of passion for the game. Could have some bearing on his missing so much of the season...?

Best hope, as I've written, is that he'll be a late bloomer. Obviously, next year is absolutely critical for his relationship with the Wizards. We suck. We are a terrible team. We can't afford to re-sign him based on hope.

[doclinkin]

scuttlebutt was Dallas apparently wanted him in the draft.

1. The Mavs had the #37 pick in the 2019 draft.

Correction. Spurs. I mis-typed.

I saw you talking to Rui [Hachimura] after the game. What were you talking about?

Popovic: Well, just the time that we spent together when he came for a draft workout. He came to San Antonio and we worked him out before the draft. He’s a very personable, intelligent young man and we really enjoyed having him. It was just fun to reminisce with him again.

There was no trading down to the mid-teens, where most onlookers had Hachimura going before draft time, with the assumption he’d still be around. The Spurs, who picked No. 19, were big Hachimura fans, according to sources, and could have nabbed him or even moved up a few slots to take him if he slid close enough to them. The Hornets were making calls around the league in an effort to move up from No. 13, per sources, and were fancy for Hachimura.

“We tried to trade back until you hear people are trying to trade up to get him ahead of us,” Sheppard said. “There were several teams – cat-and-mouse game. And you have to have the best intel of what’s going on around you. I think there were a couple of teams in hot pursuit but I think when we got the call, we kind of knew what they might be calling about. You say thank you and hang up and we got our guy.”

[payitforward]

scuttlebutt was Dallas apparently wanted him in the draft.

1. The Mavs had the #37 pick in the 2019 draft.

Correction. Spurs. I mis-typed.

I saw you talking to Rui [Hachimura] after the game. What were you talking about?

Popovic: Well, just the time that we spent together when he came for a draft workout. He came to San Antonio and we worked him out before the draft. He’s a very personable, intelligent young man and we really enjoyed having him. It was just fun to reminisce with him again.

Yes, I remember this now -- both their interest & coverage of Popovic's conversation with Rui.

But I'm not sure whom you are quoting in the first para here:

There was no trading down to the mid-teens, where most onlookers had Hachimura going before draft time, with the assumption he’d still be around. The Spurs, who picked No. 19, were big Hachimura fans, according to sources, and could have nabbed him or even moved up a few slots to take him if he slid close enough to them. The Hornets were making calls around the league in an effort to move up from No. 13, per sources, and were fancy for Hachimura.

“We tried to trade back until you hear people are trying to trade up to get him ahead of us,” Sheppard said. “There were several teams – cat-and-mouse game. And you have to have the best intel of what’s going on around you. I think there were a couple of teams in hot pursuit but I think when we got the call, we kind of knew what they might be calling about. You say thank you and hang up and we got our guy.”

In any case, obviously, "we got our guy." They wanted him, they were pretty sure they could get him at #9, since as you point out most people had him going later, & I'm sure they had a backup plan in case someone picking before them got enthusiastic & took Rui.

Meanwhile, I would never have taken him with the #9 pick. For that matter, I didn't think he was worth a pick in "the mid-teens, where most onlookers had" him going. More to the point, I had no real interest in him at all.

Which you can tell from the fact that I hoped we'd trade down from #9 for #20 & #22. For that matter, if he'd been on the board at #20, I would have taken Clarke not Rui. If he'd been on the board at #21, I'd have taken Thybulle (if he was there) or either Grant Williams or Keldon Johnson if not.

If we could manage it via buying one of the Sixers high R2 picks -- we already had their #42 -- I also liked Gafford (#38). Other guys I kinda liked in R2 were Cody Martin & (later) Quinndary Weatherspoon (now a 2-way player w/ the Warriors -- definitely not an NBA player).

[doclinkin]

scuttlebutt was Dallas apparently wanted him in the draft.

1. The Mavs had the #37 pick in the 2019 draft.

Correction. Spurs. I mis-typed.

I saw you talking to Rui [Hachimura] after the game. What were you talking about?

Popovic: Well, just the time that we spent together when he came for a draft workout. He came to San Antonio and we worked him out before the draft. He’s a very personable, intelligent young man and we really enjoyed having him. It was just fun to reminisce with him again.

Yes, I remember this now -- both their interest & coverage of Popovic's conversation with Rui.

But I'm not sure whom you are quoting in the first para here:

There was no trading down to the mid-teens, where most onlookers had Hachimura going before draft time, with the assumption he’d still be around. The Spurs, who picked No. 19, were big Hachimura fans, according to sources, and could have nabbed him or even moved up a few slots to take him if he slid close enough to them. The Hornets were making calls around the league in an effort to move up from No. 13, per sources, and were fancy for Hachimura.

“We tried to trade back until you hear people are trying to trade up to get him ahead of us,” Sheppard said. “There were several teams – cat-and-mouse game. And you have to have the best intel of what’s going on around you. I think there were a couple of teams in hot pursuit but I think when we got the call, we kind of knew what they might be calling about. You say thank you and hang up and we got our guy.”

Paragraph was a snippet of an article from the Athletic. Though neither the Spurs nor Hornets are good trading partners for us. I don't see what they would offer that we need, if they were still sweet on Rui. Nothing at least big enough for Tommy to be swayed.

[payitforward]

“We tried to trade back until you hear people are trying to trade up to get him ahead of us,” Sheppard said. “There were several teams – cat-and-mouse game. And you have to have the best intel of what’s going on around you. I think there were a couple of teams in hot pursuit but I think when we got the call, we kind of knew what they might be calling about. You say thank you and hang up and we got our guy.”

I think Tommy's last sentence -- "Yoo say thank you and hangup and we got our guy." -- is the telling one: they were "all in" on Rui -- as Tommy said that Summer.

Except that there was simply no imaginable basketball justification whatever for anyone to take that attitude about Rui Hachimura. He was a pretty good college player, sure, but nothing in his play screamed out that he was outstanding.

In fact, it's ridiculous to imagine that basketball provided the reason. & it's obvious what did. Few & far between are the players who bring an entirely new market for merch etc. along with them.

But, this is all ancient history by now. Irrelevant. Rui is a Wizard; we're all looking forward to what he can do to improve significantly next year.

[DCZards]

But this is all ancient history by now. Irrelevant. Rui is a Wizard; we're all looking forward to what he can do to improve significantly next year.

Does this mean no more “woulda, coulda, shoulda” as it relates to what Tommy could have done with the pick? One can only hope.

[dckingsfan]

If you mean the theory that Tommy took the pick as pressure from the front office and marketing and who we should have drafted instead... it is just one mistake. But, history tends to repeat itself... so we shall see.

[trast66]

We have two pre season games in Japan. Rui not going anywhere.

[payitforward]

But this is all ancient history by now. Irrelevant. Rui is a Wizard; we're all looking forward to what he can do to improve significantly next year.

Does this mean no more “woulda, coulda, shoulda” as it relates to what Tommy could have done with the pick? One can only hope.

You're one of my favorites here, Zard -- as I'm sure you know. We share interests in music, our politics are copacetic, & -- of course -- we are both totally insane (i.e. we are Wizards fans).

For that reason, I try to just let your (to me) incomprehensible belief that, I guess, "there is nothing to learn from past failure, not even repeated failures" slide by w/o a focused response. But... I'll respond this time -- & return to the default thereafter:

Zards, there is no aspect of life in which it is useful to look away from the past. It is always useful to understand what you "coulda" done that you didn't do, what you "shoulda" done but didn't, & what you "woulda" done if you'd analyzed your situation correctly. In fact, it's not even possible to analyze any human situation, unless you look at the past directly, acknowledge what was badly done, figure out what it would have been better to do, recognize the behaviors which produced crappy results repeatedly, & then change those behaviors. Naturally, whatever you then do should also be subjected to the same analysis.

In short, not only should we definitely NOT avoid "coulda shoulda woulda" discussion of what the current FO has done & is doing, I'm not sure what subjects would be of more relevance in discussing a franchise that's gone 69-85 over its last 2 years, 94-132 over its last 3 years, & 126-182 over its last 4 years.

Over the last 14 years, the Washington Wizards have been one of the worst franchises in the NBA. In that period we've won a total of 466 games -- just over 33 games a year.

I'd say that truly extraordinary history of organizational dysfunction very much calls for someone to figure out why we are consistently, repeatedly, inveterately NOT doing what we coulda & shoulda done.

Now, despite all that, there's obviously no need to go back to Ernie's gaffes. He's gone. But, we should certainly look at what the current FO has done! In fact, if we are going to praise their good moves, then we also have to look at the rest of the moves.

To be specific, if you or anyone is going to praise Tommy for trading Bertans/Dinwiddie for Porzingis & a R2 pick (great trade!), then I'm sorry but we're also going to have to say that Tommy botched the 2019 draft entirely, mismanaged the 2020 draft significantly, & made a hash of the opportunities he had to use the 2021 draft for maximum benefit.

Let's hope this one goes better.

[DCZards]

Zards, there is no aspect of life in which it is useful to look away from the past. It is always useful to understand what you "coulda" done that you didn't do, what you "shoulda" done but didn't, & what you "woulda" done if you'd analyzed your situation correctly. In fact, it's not even possible to analyze any human situation, unless you look at the past directly, acknowledge what was badly done, figure out what it would have been better to do, recognize the behaviors which produced crappy results repeatedly, & then change those behaviors. Naturally, whatever you then do should also be subjected to the same analysis.
a & shoulda done.

Of course, it’s important to debate and learn from past mistakes—and discuss what you might have done differently—so that you hopefully don’t repeat the mistake.

But at some point the lesson is learned and you move on. You don’t keep whipping yourself into a frenzy (oftentimes rooted in 20-20 hindsight and/or insufficient info) everytime the topic/mistake is brought up.

[payitforward]

I'm lost my brother -- weren't you the one who brought up the question again when I'd just called it "ancient history?"

For that matter I've never seen any indication from you that "the lesson is learned" (to use your language) in respect of the 2019 draft. Did I miss something?

In any case, it seems relevant still with regard to the Wizards -- & will until we say a change in the inept way the team manages the draft process.