Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[tleikheen]

And by the way- I would argue that compared to good playoff teams we have updated our PG rotation only from execrable to mediocre. With your belief in Monte maybe that’ll give you something to argue against!

Denver fans were happy to get a starter back in KCP. The reality is Montae Morris would have been replaced by Bones Hyland as the backup PG behind Murray and getting rid of Barton who would have stolen shots away from a returning MPJ and Murray. Some Wiz fans look at Morris like he's this stabilizing force that would have the Wiz climb into the top 4 in the Eastern Conf when the team that traded him would have had him as their 3rd PG on their team.

[payitforward]

PIF you did see where I said I agreed with you right? Cause you then took “mediocre”, defined it as about average, and argued that we won’t be exactly .500 or better. You have to let the belief go that only you fail to see the Wizards with rose colored glasses.
Per the Cambridge English dictionary:
Mediocre: just acceptable but not good; not good enough
And by the way- I would argue that compared to good playoff teams we have updated our PG rotation only from execrable to mediocre. With your belief in Monte maybe that’ll give you something to argue against!

I kind of changed my mind a bit while writing & then didn't edit to make it all make sense. Sorry!

[payitforward]

And by the way- I would argue that compared to good playoff teams we have updated our PG rotation only from execrable to mediocre. With your belief in Monte maybe that’ll give you something to argue against!

Let's start with this.

I don't "believe in" Monte Morris or any other player. Basketball isn't religion, it isn't an ideology. You "believe" in things, you wind up paying Bradley Beal $45m a year.

Monte Morris put up outstanding numbers last year starting at PG for a very good team. It's the numbers that make him good. Make any player good.

If you haven't looked at his numbers, & you feel like doing it, then maybe we can have a real exchange about him. If not, that's ok too. But, then... on what basis would you "argue" anything about "our PG rotation?"

As to the other part of that rotation, if you really think Delon Wright is "mediocre," ...well, I guess I just have to repeat myself, don't I? Do you have a real & detailed fix on what he does on the court? Have you watched him a bunch -- & if so do you really just have him as an upgrade "from to execrable to mediocre?" I could be wrong, gesa2, but the fact that you give every impression of being a very smart guy, I'm going to guess that, no, you don't actually know much about Wright. Am I Wrong incorrect?

Keep in mind... I don't think we are a good team; I don't think we are likely even to be a mediocre team. I'm no homer -- I want us to be good. But I know we aren't!

But Monte Morris & Delon Wright aren't part of the problem. Those two guys actually are good.

Ok... back to the sh#tshow of a game in which we are no doubt still being pasted from one end of the court to the other. We took Isaiah Todd #31 in 2021. Detroit took Isaiah Livers #42 about an hour later that evening. Which looks like the better Isaiah to you?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

It might be more like this...

Morris, Wright
Beal, Kispert
Kuzma, Barton
Hachimura, Avdija
Porzingis, Gafford

Gibson, Gill, Todd, Davis, Dotson

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Actually based on what everyone is saying, it’s probably more like this....

Morris, Wright
Beal, Kispert
Barton, Avdija
Kuzma, Hachimura
Porzingis, Gafford

Gibson, Gill, Davis, Dotson

[NatP4]

Actually based on what everyone is saying, it’s probably more like this....

Morris, Wright
Beal, Kispert
Barton, Avdija
Kuzma, Hachimura
Porzingis, Gafford

Gibson, Gill, Davis, Dotson

This is without a doubt, going to be the initial rotation. The starters will get shredded, our defense is going to be very bad. Porzingis is the only plus defender there. None of Kispert/Avdija/Hachimura will be playing as much as they should. Davis obviously won’t be playing as much as he should.

The 4 position will be the worst rotation in the league.

We will hover around or below .500 in the 7-10 range. Davis will start to show some promise in late Nov. Sheppard will trade Barton+Kuzma to free up some room and bring back a better starting PF. Team gets slightly better and finishes in the 6-8 range and loses in round 1 in 6 games.

[nate33]

Actually based on what everyone is saying, it’s probably more like this....

Morris, Wright
Beal, Kispert
Barton, Avdija
Kuzma, Hachimura
Porzingis, Gafford

Gibson, Gill, Davis, Dotson

You may be right that that's how it shakes out at first since Wes Jr. is presumably very comfortable with Morris and Barton. But that lineup would make a lot more sense with Barton and Kispert juxtaposed. The starting lineup has plenty of ball-handling decision makers and could really use one off-ball shot maker. Meanwhile, the 2nd unit has fewer shot creators and could use a guy like Barton who can generate a shot in isolation when an offensive set breaks down.

I'd like it even more if Morris and Wright were also inverted - for the same reasons. The starting PG will be a fairly low usage guy since Porzingis, Beal and Kuzma need touches. So we are better off with the better defender (Wright) while the 2nd unit will be better off with the better offensive creator.

So I'd like to see:

Wright, Morris
Beal, Barton
Kispert, Avdija
Kuzma, Hachimura
Porzingis, Gafford

It's not about minutes; it's chemistry. If Wes thinks Morris is better than Wright and Barton is better than Kispert, that's fine. He can still play Morris and Barton more minutes. But I think the rotation makes much more sense this way.

[dckingsfan]

Actually based on what everyone is saying, it’s probably more like this....

Morris, Wright
Beal, Kispert
Barton, Avdija
Kuzma, Hachimura
Porzingis, Gafford

Gibson, Gill, Davis, Dotson

This is without a doubt, going to be the initial rotation. The starters will get shredded, our defense is going to be very bad. Porzingis is the only plus defender there. None of Kispert/Avdija/Hachimura will be playing as much as they should. Davis obviously won’t be playing as much as he should.

The 4 position will be the worst rotation in the league.

We will hover around or below .500 in the 7-10 range. Davis will start to show some promise in late Nov. Sheppard will trade Barton+Kuzma to free up some room and bring back a better starting PF. Team gets slightly better and finishes in the 6-8 range and loses in round 1 in 6 games.

Had me until the last sentence - I think this is a 9 and below seed. Miami, Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Toronto, Chicago, Cleveland & Atlanta will almost certainly be better than us unless they have major injuries.

I don't think that New York & Charlotte will necessarily be much worse.

It will be interesting to see how Indiana, Detroit and Orlando do with their remakes and move to younger squads.

I will add - I could see Porzingis or Beal getting injured as well...

[payitforward]

Actually based on what everyone is saying, it’s probably more like this....

Morris, Wright
Beal, Kispert
Barton, Avdija
Kuzma, Hachimura
Porzingis, Gafford

Gibson, Gill, Davis, Dotson

This is without a doubt, going to be the initial rotation. The starters will get shredded, our defense is going to be very bad. Porzingis is the only plus defender there. None of Kispert/Avdija/Hachimura will be playing as much as they should. Davis obviously won’t be playing as much as he should.

The 4 position will be the worst rotation in the league.

We will hover around or below .500 in the 7-10 range. Davis will start to show some promise in late Nov. Sheppard will trade Barton+Kuzma to free up some room and bring back a better starting PF. Team gets slightly better and finishes in the 6-8 range and loses in round 1 in 6 games.

Had me until the last sentence - I think this is a 9 and below seed. Miami, Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Toronto, Chicago, Cleveland & Atlanta will almost certainly be better than us unless they have major injuries.

I don't think that New York & Charlotte will necessarily be much worse.

It will be interesting to see how Indiana, Detroit and Orlando do with their remakes and move to younger squads.

I will add - I could see Porzingis or Beal getting injured as well...

Or Beal not returning to the productivity of previous years. & since the big drop was his 3-point %, which seems to get worse & worse, I have no problem imagining him being just as bad as he was last year.

Not to mention that Charlotte was flat out a much better team than us. & they are improving year on year, unlike us. We won't get anywhere near them. Let alone the Cavs or Hawks.

OTOH, Brooklyn could nosedive, though I'm not predicting it -- still too much in play. But if so, that could push us up from 12th to 11th.

OTOH, it will be no surprise at all if all of the Knicks, Pacers & Pistons are better than the Wizards. I think the Wiz FO is living in dream-land & has no idea at all of what is in store for this team.

I can't imagine us being a +.500 team, which seems to be what would be needed to get to 6-8.

[NatP4]

When it’s all said and done, I don’t see a team that’s much better than last year. Wes is a mediocre coach that doesn’t move the needle, at all. Barton and Kuzma probably play 2000+ minutes each, and are huge net negatives. Rui is probably still a below average NBA player that plays a good amount of minutes as well. Morris will play more than Wright, even though Wright is significantly better. Beal probably performs at a level somewhere in between 2020-2021&2021-2022, which is just an above average starter, not much else. Porzingis probably misses 20-25 games per usual, and we have 37 year old Taj Gibson playing 20 minutes a night, who is horrible, obviously.

[payitforward]

I love this post, Nat -- it sums up the experience of being a Wizards fan!

[payitforward]

Actually... i don't think Barton is much of a downgrade from KCP, if any, although I haven't seen him play enough to know whether his defense is poor enough to make KCP's absence noticeable. I.e. I don't see the reason to predict a "huge net negative" as nat does.

& Monte Morris is a big plus. I can understand Denver wanting to trade him, because with Murray coming back Morris becomes a substitute, meaning that his trade value might be expected to drop.

Obviously, Delon Wright is a positive acquisition -- & he will get minutes at the 1 & the 2. & I think it's reasonable to predict significant continued progress from Kispert, whose rookie year showed growth as it unfolded.

The big question mark in the back court is how Brad plays. Hope for the best, of course, but he's got something of a struggle given his wrist injury & the year on year on year decline of his 3-point %.

As to the front court, obviously this is a huge year for both Rui & Deni. Nothing more to say, really; just wait & see. Kuzma is a journeyman at best. But, it's all about Porzingis. If he plays 2200-2400 minutes at the highest level of his entire career, we could conceivably be a little better than we were last year.

I.e. better than the 25-44 team we revealed ourselves to be after our hot start. Significant improvement, if any, over our season w-l record of 35-47 seems pretty much a pipe dream to me.

[DCZards]

One of the biggest differences between this year's team and last year's is that Wes now has a lead guard (Morris) who he knows and trust -- and who doesn’t turn the ball over.

[PerkinsFor3]

As to the front court, obviously this is a huge year for both Rui & Deni. Nothing more to say, really; just wait & see. Kuzma is a journeyman at best.

you expecting rui to win the starting position (maybe by default due to a kuz trade)?

[payitforward]

As to the front court, obviously this is a huge year for both Rui & Deni. Nothing more to say, really; just wait & see. Kuzma is a journeyman at best.

you expecting rui to win the starting position (maybe by default due to a kuz trade)?

There wasn't a huge difference In the overall per 40 minutes numbers the two of them posted last year. But, Kuz was better.

That's not to say that he was actually good (i.e. above average overall), just better than Rui.

They scored virtually the same number of points, although Rui was clearly more efficient -- a .579 TS% vs .547 for Kuz.

Kuz had more blocks & way more assists, while Rui had more steals & way fewer TOs

OTOH, Kuz was by far the better rebounder, an area where Rui is notably weak. & that sufficed to make for a significant difference; he outperformed Rui overall.

Again -- it's not that Kuz was actually a good NBA player; he wasn't. He was just better than Rui.

[PerkinsFor3]

Sounds like youd prefer both of them to be backups ideally.

[dckingsfan]

Sounds like youd prefer both of them to be backups ideally.

I kind of feel that they both are backups at this point in their careers (well, on good teams anyway). One thing Rui is 2 1/2 years younger. I also felt that he took a step forward last season especially when looking at the circumstance of the beginning of the season.

I feel he could take an even larger jump this season. IMO - I don't see Kuz taking the same jump. You?

[payitforward]

I'd prefer Kuzma to be gone, & I'd prefer not to extend Rui. I.e., I'd like to trade both of them while we can (if we can). & I'd prefer most of the value to return in the form of picks.

Why picks?

Because... we are totally cooked. There is virtually no chance that the Wizards field a contending team in the next 5 years (i.e. during the term of Beal's whacko deal) & not much chance we make the playoffs at all.

The only possible way we might be at least a little successful is if we get very lucky with our draft picks -- i.e. hit big on a few of them. & since unknowable, unpredictable things are involved in that the way to double your chances is to double your choices.

At least that's how it seems to me.

[dckingsfan]

Down with that as well... and I would move on from Todd & Carey as well (I can understand if some want to take more time).

I would like to have 4 "new ones" in the pipeline. Might give us a chance.

I might add, I would like to see Kuz gone before the season starts, Rui makes some progress and is traded at the deadline to maximize value. Disabuse me of this notion if it wouldn't yield maximum return(s).

[payitforward]

Sounds like youd prefer both of them to be backups ideally.

I kind of feel that they both are backups at this point in their careers (well, on good teams anyway). One thing Rui is 2 1/2 years younger. I also felt that he took a step forward last season especially when looking at the circumstance of the beginning of the season.

I feel he could take an even larger jump this season. IMO - I don't see Kuz taking the same jump. You?

Absolutely. If only one can go, I'd rather it be Kuzma.

That said, there's a substantial danger of over-paying Rui. He's a strong business asset. & another over-pay contract would just be another nail in the coffin.

But, hey, I could be wrong! It's always possible to envision some kind of a path to success, even if the chances are small.

Rui could take a really big jump this year & become a truly good player.
Beal could return to the level of his best seasons & maybe even better.
Porzingis might do what he's never done.
Morris, being young & already good, may take another step up.
Deni might correct his problem areas while continuing to get better at the stuff he's already good at.
Kispert could increase the volume & % of his shooting.
Gafford might show that he can handle 25+ minutes including time on the floor with KP.
Barton & Wright may suffer no decline in their 30s.
Kuzma may take the kind of jump he took between his 3d & 4th year.
Johnny Davis might become as good an NBA player as he was in college.
Vernon Carey might do the same.

Plus, who knows? Next year, we might pick someone in R1 who's as good as Clarke or Thybulle or Williams or Johnson were back in 2019
Then in 2024, we might pick a guy who's at the level of Halliburton in 2020; you never know. & somehow manage to get another R1 pick, a late one, & add a player as good as Desmond Bane. Maybe, in a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, we'll even come away with a R2 pick at the level of the dozen or so outstanding players you know I could mention. Plus -- because anything can happen -- maybe we'll figure out how to actually manage the draft to maximize the talent we take away every year (you know... the way Memphis does?).

If we do all that -- & if Brad gives us a little better deal on the contract he signs for his years from 35-40 -- we could conceivably be a good team 6-9 years from now. Nothing's for sure, of course, but it's possible.