Wiz trade 5th pick to Minnesota

[dobrojim]

Barely,

I'd love to have a starting wing who can really play defense as well. However, the only two options currently on the roster for that would be DMac (and even his defense is overrated) and DeBackashawn (whose defense is also overrated). Moreover, those two guys on offense are from hunger; they are putrid. Now if you can make a deal that doesn't gut the team for a two way wing player who plays defense well and is offense is average, I'm right there with you. But given the options currently on the roster this team will continue to have to outscore other teams because of superior offense, not defense.

I will agree that to nitpick about your mix and match deals (which I did) wasn't very productive. But any time a deal is proposed, however casually, it will likely be analyzed and evaluated.

As for Brand, I would be willing to take the chance that even if he doesn't come all the way back, he will give the Wizards more of what they need than Jamison, even taking into account his contract. But I'm not willing to risk that and also give the 76ers Blatche and a first round pick.

I don't think Brand is coming here. It might be fun to speculate about but I strongly
doubt it's happening. According to my friend in Philly, they need to unload either
Iggy or ThadYoung as he feels they both play the same position (SF). I doubt they
unload Brand. When healthy, he's their best player.

But I digress -

the reason I'm responding to this post is because Nick Young can play D at the 2.
He has the tools. And he did it last year. And his offense isn't putrid.

I stand by my earlier prediction - N1 will be the starter on opening day barring
a trade or injury.

[Benjammin]

I have to say that N1 did show signs of being a competent defensive player.That's a good point dobrojim. I think he needs to get stronger and be more focused on the court, but he does have the tools and gifts. I hope that he puts it all together, claims the starting 2 guard spot and never looks back. However, if there is any hesitation on Flip's part, he will likely go with a more veteran option (please not DSn).

[Ruzious]

If the plan is to start Stevenson, then I hate this trade even more than I originally thought. If Stevenson gets 20-25 minutes a game, then we just traded Songaila and the #5 so we can play Mike Miller for 20 minutes a game at backup SG/SF.

Hell, Stevenson is the sixth-best SG on the roster behind Butler, Miller, Young, Foye and DMac. There is no way he should start.

Nate, if Stevenson is healthy and not traded, I would not be surprised at all to see him start with Foye and Miller as reserves. Foye would back up Arenas, NY back up Stevenson and Miller backing up Caron). I'm not necessarily advocating that, just stating it as highly possible. Also, I don't necessarily agree that Stevenson would be the sixth best SG if healthy. Maybe so if you consider the injured Stevenson we had last year, but not necessarily so for the 2 years before last. I think some people forget that he actually fit pretty well when we had Arenas, Jamison, Butler and Haywood playing together and he was healthy. In fact, I remember quite a few people on this board said "Larry Hughes who?"

If that's the case, if Stevenson does indeed regain his old form and forces his way into the starting rotation, then the trade was an absolutely STUPID trade to make. Foye is no better than Young. So we lose Songaila and the #5 so we can play Miller as our backup SF. Yay.

I'd much rather have Curry or Harden.

My other problem is that, if they believe Stevenson is a starting caliber player, than it means that they honestly believe that the team from 3 years ago was basically a championship caliber contender. They believe that the only missing piece was a solid SG/SF coming off the bench. That's it. Everything else was good. Indeed, we were so good that we can afford to lose a quality backup PF like Songaila without missing a beat.

I'm sorry, but I can't go along with that premise. If Stevenson is a starter, he better be VASTLY improved from the Stevenson of 3 years ago. Otherwise, we are no better than a 2nd round playoff team, if we're lucky.


I certainly believe we need a defender at that position, with Arenas, Butler and Jamison all being defensive liabilities. If healthy, I think Stevenson would be better than Miller. I haven't seen enough of Foye to determine who would be better defensively at the SG position.

Again, I'm not sure what else the Wiz have to do to show you 2 that Stevenson isn't in their plans. They tried to dump him, and they acquired 2 players who can play his position. And meanwhile, Caron is seemingly getting in shape to play more 2 - I assume he checked with Ernie before deciding on that. It doesn't get much more transparent.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate as negative as I am about Ernie's moves, I believe DeShawn's definitely not in the plans for the future.

I bet if they can't move him they keep him out injured, just like Etan.

[dobrojim]

I have to say that N1 did show signs of being a competent defensive player.That's a good point dobrojim. I think he needs to get stronger and be more focused on the court, but he does have the tools and gifts. I hope that he puts it all together, claims the starting 2 guard spot and never looks back. However, if there is any hesitation on Flip's part, he will likely go with a more veteran option (please not DSn).

I say it's his to lose. Not that they should tell him that or that he should
assume that.

If he falters, it'll go to Foye I'd guess. I have to think they like Miller
off the bench. After all, he did win 6moy as well as ROY.

[fishercob]

Again, I'm not sure what else the Wiz have to do to show you 2 that Stevenson isn't in their plans. They tried to dump him, and they acquired 2 players who can play his position. And meanwhile, Caron is seemingly getting in shape to play more 2 - I assume he checked with Ernie before deciding on that. It doesn't get much more transparent.

+1 After reading Ernie's comment that they tried to include Deshawn, I have little doubt that they don't plan for him to be in the rotation.

[nate33]

nate as negative as I am about Ernie's moves, I believe DeShawn's definitely not in the plans for the future.

I bet if they can't move him they keep him out injured, just like Etan.

Oh, I agree. I don't Stevenson will play much and I certainly don't think he'll start. My point is that one of the two must be true: either Stevenson doesn't factor significantly in or plans, or that trade was stupid.

[dobrojim]

^ yup

esp since they went as far as publicly admitting it which they didn't have to do

back to the lineup rotation thing -

Gil - Foye backing him up and getting spot duty also at the 2
Young - with Miller/Caron/Dom backing him up, Dom prob only getting spot duty
Caron - Miller/Dom (again with spot duty)
AJ - Blatch
Haywood - Blatch and McGee getting spot duty or more if he earns it

[fishercob]

I have to say that N1 did show signs of being a competent defensive player.That's a good point dobrojim. I think he needs to get stronger and be more focused on the court, but he does have the tools and gifts. I hope that he puts it all together, claims the starting 2 guard spot and never looks back. However, if there is any hesitation on Flip's part, he will likely go with a more veteran option (please not DSn).

I say it's his to lose. Not that they should tell him that or that he should
assume that.

If he falters, it'll go to Foye I'd guess. I have to think they like Miller
off the bench. After all, he did win 6moy as well as ROY.

I think Young is a lost cause. I don't want to crush the kid beacuse, well...it's not nice. But he's clearly got some severe learning problems. He didn't learn the basics of the Princeton in two years. TWO YEARS. You have to be able to think the game to play at a high level. I know he's so talented that he's able to make up for it in certain ways, but he is NOT a guy who I feel like we can trust to do a job.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but Ernie trading for two shooting guards doesn't make me think that I am.

[KevinFCheng]

I really don't mind having Deshawn as our 10th or 11th man if we can't trade him. But McGuire HAS to play more than him or it'll be pointless. I really love McGuire. He was exploited this past season only because he had to play 35 minutes a game. If we turn into an 18MPG guy, he'll be even that much better.

[nate33]

I think Young is a lost cause. I don't want to crush the kid beacuse, well...it's not nice. But he's clearly got some severe learning problems. He didn't learn the basics of the Princeton in two years. TWO YEARS. You have to be able to think the game to play at a high level. I know he's so talented that he's able to make up for it in certain ways, but he is NOT a guy who I feel like we can trust to do a job.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but Ernie trading for two shooting guards doesn't make me think that I am.

I think Young is a slow learner, but he's not incapable of learning. He's slowly getting better. Certainly, his defense has improved considerably.

Doc made a point a while ago that Flip runs more fixed plays as opposed to EJ's read-and-react system. Presumably, fixed plays require a little less aptitude. It's possible that Young could show significant improvement in this system.

At any rate, as I mentioned before, we can't afford to keep both Foye and Miller next summer. One of them is gonna have to go. It makes sense to retain Young so he can fill in as their replacement.

[fishercob]

Nate, if you're right that we indeed can't keep both those guys next summer I'll be pretty pissed off. Ernie indicated he plans to keep them. If he doesn't (or if we lose Haywood) then yeah, the trade sucks.

[NoVaO]

I go back and forth on whether it should be Miller or Foye starting at the two. I'm leaning toward Foye because I simply don't see Miller being able to keep up with starting 2-guards.

Plus, if you look at each player's splits, it seems Foye is better at playing off the ball:

Per 48 Minutes

06-07
As PG - 48.4 eFG%, 5.3 Reb, 5.8 Ast, 4.2 TO, 20.1 Pts, 13.5 PER
As SG - 48.5 eFG%, 6 Reb, 6.3 Ast, 3.5 TO, 22.8 Pts, 16.9 PER

08-09
As PG - 43 eFG%, 4.4 Reb, 7.4 Ast, 3.9 TO, 19.6 Pts, 12.3 PER
As SG - 48.5 eFG%, 3.8 Reb, 4.8 Ast, 2.2 TO, 23.2 Pts, 17 PER


I did not include 07-08 because of how few games he played and how few minutes he played at the 2.

It's not a lot of data to go on, but it would seem Foye is much better at playing off the ball. Miller has been equally good from both the 2 and 3 spot, though he's been better from the 3 spot the last couple of years.

Defensively, here's what Hollinger said in Foye's scouting report before last year:

Foye is a strong defender at the point -- he's big for the position but also can move his feet and cut off penetration. Because of his strength he can also defend shooting guards, and as he gains more experience he should be an above-average defender at both positions.

It's worth noting that Foye actually defended the other team's power forward in college.

People also need to consider that players often times become better defenders once they move to a better team. Ray Allen was a putrid defender in Seattle, but suddenly became average in Boston because he played with more effort as the stakes were higher. Same with Rashard Lewis when he moved to Orlando.

Chauncey Billups, Jerry Stackhouse, and Jason Kidd were all on terrible defensive teams in their first 2 or 3 years and they suddenly became great defensive players (or good in Stackhouse's case) when they moved on to better teams. I haven't seen many reports stating Foye's defense was a liability and I think many are using the fact that Minnesota was a bad defensive team to imply that Foye is a bad defender when that might not be the case.

That's not to say the Wizards will be a good defensive team, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities for this team to move into that 15 - 20 range defensively as long as Haywood stays healthy. I do think Saunders' match-up zone scheme will help mask some of the team's defensive inefficiencies.

[Dat2U]

At any rate, as I mentioned before, we can't afford to keep both Foye and Miller next summer. One of them is gonna have to go. It makes sense to retain Young so he can fill in as their replacement.

Man if that's the case then Grunfeld ought to be fired. You don't trade a top five pick in anyear for a one year rental.

But that goes to another aspect of the deal I don't like. Instead of adding a quality asset with the 5th pick on a rookie deal for the next four years, we are going to be forced to pony up and pay full price for both Miller & Foye next off season. That doesn't sound like a team that's worried about being fiscally responsible.

If EG is forced to make a tough financial decision next year and we lose either Miller, Foye or Wood then this trade was an absolute disaster.

We keep hearing the Wizards wanted players that could contribute right now and that they couldn't afford to wait on a rookie to develop. Well how will that sound next year when we can't afford to keep one of those guys that could contribute, while the guy that gets drafted at #5 is producing and making noise for another team?

[KevinFCheng]

At any rate, as I mentioned before, we can't afford to keep both Foye and Miller next summer. One of them is gonna have to go. It makes sense to retain Young so he can fill in as their replacement.

Man if that's the case then Grunfeld ought to be fired. You don't trade a top five pick in anyear for a one year rental.

But that goes to another aspect of the deal I don't like. Instead of adding a quality asset with the 5th pick on a rookie deal for the next four years, we are going to be forced to pony up and pay full price for both Miller & Foye next off season. That doesn't sound like a team that's worried about being fiscally responsible.

If EG is forced to make a tough financial decision next year and we lose either Miller, Foye or Wood then this trade was an absolute disaster.

Agreed, we have to resign all 3 of them (at reasonable deals) or the trade is an absolute disaster, unless any one of them totally stinks it up.

[LyricalRico]

How much do you guys expect them to cost? If Haywood extends early (like he did the first time) and we let McGuire walk we could sign them to decent contracts without getting ridiculous with the tax payments. With so many guys available in 2010, if a few guys get huge dollars early, the large supply might actually turn it into a buyer's market.

I would actually expect them to keep everybody, especially if the team goes deep into the playoffs.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nate, if you're right that we indeed can't keep both those guys next summer I'll be pretty pissed off. Ernie indicated he plans to keep them. If he doesn't (or if we lose Haywood) then yeah, the trade sucks.

fish, this was why I gave the trade the 4 out of 10. Not keeping Miller or Foye because losing one is the only way to resign Haywood is bad enough. Worse, givign Pech and the 5 and not having a future pick just sealed it for me.

Now, with the deals going down I'm seeing the east get tougher and I'm seeing the Wizards could have had Carter and kept or swapped picks, but apparently didn't want his salary.

I'm just down.

Next season the Wizards still win over twice as many games. Still make the playoffs. But I'm not seeing anything more.

[Benjammin]

At any rate, as I mentioned before, we can't afford to keep both Foye and Miller next summer. One of them is gonna have to go. It makes sense to retain Young so he can fill in as their replacement.

Man if that's the case then Grunfeld ought to be fired. You don't trade a top five pick in anyear for a one year rental.

But that goes to another aspect of the deal I don't like. Instead of adding a quality asset with the 5th pick on a rookie deal for the next four years, we are going to be forced to pony up and pay full price for both Miller & Foye next off season. That doesn't sound like a team that's worried about being fiscally responsible.

If EG is forced to make a tough financial decision next year and we lose either Miller, Foye or Wood then this trade was an absolute disaster.

Looking at 2010 and assuming that Haywood re-signs for 8.5, Miller, 6.5, Foye 5.0, McGuire 1.5, a first round pick making 1.2, not picking up Critt's option, add another low level big and we're looking at around 77-78 million for our salary payments. Let's say the luxury tax threshold doesn't take horribly and is around 70 million, then the Wizards would have to pay an additional 7-8 million in luxury tax plus losing out on the luxury tax revenue disbursement. That's not awful if that is truly a contending team. Obviously, if the Wizards make other moves to bring in more salary, those numbers go up and up.

[nate33]

I go back and forth on whether it should be Miller or Foye starting at the two. I'm leaning toward Foye because I simply don't see Miller being able to keep up with starting 2-guards.

Plus, if you look at each player's splits, it seems Foye is better at playing off the ball:

Per 48 Minutes

06-07
As PG - 48.4 eFG%, 5.3 Reb, 5.8 Ast, 4.2 TO, 20.1 Pts, 13.5 PER
As SG - 48.5 eFG%, 6 Reb, 6.3 Ast, 3.5 TO, 22.8 Pts, 16.9 PER

08-09
As PG - 43 eFG%, 4.4 Reb, 7.4 Ast, 3.9 TO, 19.6 Pts, 12.3 PER
As SG - 48.5 eFG%, 3.8 Reb, 4.8 Ast, 2.2 TO, 23.2 Pts, 17 PER


I did not include 07-08 because of how few games he played and how few minutes he played at the 2.

It's not a lot of data to go on, but it would seem Foye is much better at playing off the ball. Miller has been equally good from both the 2 and 3 spot, though he's been better from the 3 spot the last couple of years.

Defensively, here's what Hollinger said in Foye's scouting report before last year:

Foye is a strong defender at the point -- he's big for the position but also can move his feet and cut off penetration. Because of his strength he can also defend shooting guards, and as he gains more experience he should be an above-average defender at both positions.

It's worth noting that Foye actually defended the other team's power forward in college.

People also need to consider that players often times become better defenders once they move to a better team. Ray Allen was a putrid defender in Seattle, but suddenly became average in Boston because he played with more effort as the stakes were higher. Same with Rashard Lewis when he moved to Orlando.

Chauncey Billups, Jerry Stackhouse, and Jason Kidd were all on terrible defensive teams in their first 2 or 3 years and they suddenly became great defensive players (or good in Stackhouse's case) when they moved on to better teams. I haven't seen many reports stating Foye's defense was a liability and I think many are using the fact that Minnesota was a bad defensive team to imply that Foye is a bad defender when that might not be the case.

That's not to say the Wizards will be a good defensive team, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities for this team to move into that 15 - 20 range defensively as long as Haywood stays healthy. I do think Saunders' match-up zone scheme will help mask some of the team's defensive inefficiencies.

Wow! Nice work, NoVaO. Those are some eye-opening stats. I had no idea Foye was THAT much better at SG. If Foye can post a PER in the 17 range while playing at least average defense, then maybe I'll have to reconsider my take on this deal.

[nate33]

How much do you guys expect them to cost? If Haywood extends early (like he did the first time) and we let McGuire walk we could sign them to decent contracts without getting ridiculous with the tax payments. With so many guys available in 2010, if a few guys get huge dollars early, the large supply might actually turn it into a buyer's market.

I would actually expect them to keep everybody, especially if the team goes deep into the playoffs.

There is no chance that Haywood extends early - not when he's the best center on the market not named Yao Ming. If he gets 32 minutes a game and posts a PER in the 17-19 range like last season, I think it's very possible that he gets an offer in the $10M range. I'm hoping for something in the $8M range, but I'm not optimistic.