Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - 02/06/13)

[Illuminaire]

As such, I requested a summary of Rudy's game on the Memphis boards. Obviously this individual isn't a scout, but I respect his opinion because he's watched sufficiently to have better insight, so in the interest of full disclosure, here you go...

I can't help but notice that the Memphis fan does not actually state what it is that Gay does so very well, or what makes him the fourth best SF in the league... aside from how athletic he looks, and the fact that he can miss shots any time he wants.

[Nivek]

Like nate, I'm baffled at the persistence of belief in the face of considerable evidence to the contrary. Specifically, Rudy Gay is NOT a good NBA player. He's solidly below average. He's not a "scorer" he's a guy who flings the ball at the hoop a lot. Scorers make the ball go in the hoop. He's below average at rebounding and assists (and has been his entire career). His defense isn't bad, but NO ONE advocating for him has cited defense as a reason to acquire him.

Trading for an overpaid, ineffeicient player who doesn't rebound or set up his teammates is exactly what the Wizards need -- if they want to stay in the lottery.

Now, if we're talking about acquiring some Imaginary Gay who plays differently than he has throughout his career -- sure, that guy might be good. The odds of getting that guy are bad. There's no incentive for him to change since he got a max contract playing the way he's been playing. This isn't a Blatche situation where he was humiliated and he's hoping for another lucrative contract. Gay has his money, and it's guaranteed. And, there are still suckers out there who think he's good because he flings the ball at the hoop a lot.

Also, Mayo is a poor example of magical improvement. The only significant difference between Mayo and his career norms is about 0.060 in 3pt shooting. Otherwise, he's the same guy he's always been.

[Jajwanda]

How about Okafor, Ariza, and Crawford for Gasol, Duhon?

[miller31time]

How about Okafor, Ariza, and Crawford for Gasol, Duhon?

Works for me. Gasol has the same contract length as Okafor and Ariza. Pretty sure he needs to get out of the toxic LA environment and his game will return to normalcy.

Wall/Duhon
Beal/Martin
Webster/Singleton
Gasol/Booker/Vesely
Nene/Seraphin

[Jajwanda]

There is also one other possibility.

Derrick Williams+filler to save Washington cash
Webster+Crawford+Okafor to L.A. saves L.A. cash and gets ideal role players for them
Minnesota gets their man for their favored price

[nate33]

How about Okafor, Ariza, and Crawford for Gasol, Duhon?

I think I'd decline.

Basically, there's no room for either Okafor or Gasol in our future, but at least Okafor is movable. I'd rather just trade him for an expiring contract (and possibly some modest incentive) and be done with it.

[nate33]

There is also one other possibility.

Derrick Williams+filler to save Washington cash
Webster+Crawford+Okafor to L.A. saves L.A. cash and gets ideal role players for them
Minnesota gets their man for their favored price

I like where this is going, but I'm not thrilled about giving up Webster. Find a way to give up Ariza instead (even if we have to take on a bigger contract in return) and I'd do it.

[TGW]

Kevin Seraphin for Harrison Barnes. Two players that, more than likely, will disappoint in the future. But can Barnes be our small forward of the future? I figure with Wall and Beal in the backcourt, all we would need is ~15 points, ~6 boards, and decent defense from the small forward spot. Barnes could provide that IMO.

[tontoz]

I would choose not to trade for Gay at this point but some of the criticism i see is a bit over the top. This is the first year since Gays rookie year that he has had a TS% below 50%. He had 5 straight years with a TS% of 52 or better which isn't great but isn't bad either, especially for a guy who scores nearly 20 ppg.

For his career he shoots 45.3% from the field, 34.4% from 3 and he is 26 years old. For his position he is above average in blocks, steals and turnover rate, average in rebounds and below average in assists. He is having the worst year of his career but using this season (which isn't even half over) to judge his whole career is ridiculous.

[nate33]

Kevin Seraphin for Harrison Barnes. Two players that, more than likely, will disappoint in the future. But can Barnes be our small forward of the future? I figure with Wall and Beal in the backcourt, all we would need is ~15 points, ~6 boards, and decent defense from the small forward spot. Barnes could provide that IMO.

I'd definitely be in favor of this if we end up drafting a big this summer. If nothing else, Barnes has 2 additional years on his rookie deal. Our team could look like this next year:

PG Wall
SG Beal/Crawford
SF Webster/Barnes
PF Noel/Nene/Booker
C Nene/Okafor

If we can trade Ariza for an equivalent type of veteran player at the PG or SG position, we'd be pretty well balanced.

[nate33]

I would choose not to trade for Gay at this point but some of the criticism i see is a bit over the top. This is the first year since Gays rookie year that he has had a TS% below 50%. He had 5 straight years with a TS% of 52 or better which isn't great but isn't bad either, especially for a guy who scores nearly 20 ppg.

For his career he shoots 45.3% from the field, 34.4% from 3 and he is 26 years old. For his position he is above average in blocks, steals and turnover rate, average in rebounds and below average in assists. He is having the worst year of his career but using this season to judge his whole career is ridiculous.

Fair enough. Here are his career averages excluding his rookie year, pace-adjusted per-36.

Code: Select all

gay,rudy  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  3P%  TS%  PER
Total-   18.2  5.7  2.0  1.4  0.8  2.3 .490 .343 .532 16.8

You have a point that they're not nearly as awful. He scores slightly more than average at a TS% that is just barely below league average. He's modestly below average in rebound and assists as well. Basically, he's the definition of an average player. While that's certainly better than the awful player we've seen this year, it hardly justifies his $18M a year contract. Again, Jordan Crawford's numbers this year look like this:

Code: Select all

crawford,  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  3P%  TS%  PER
2012-13   19.3  4.9  5.7  1.0  0.1  3.1 .466 .316 .509 16.8

Put Crawford on a team with Gasol and Randolph, and my guess is that his 3P% and TS% would rise a little bit.

[Nivek]

I would choose not to trade for Gay at this point but some of the criticism i see is a bit over the top. This is the first year since Gays rookie year that he has had a TS% below 50%. He had 5 straight years with a TS% of 52 or better which isn't great but isn't bad either, especially for a guy who scores nearly 20 ppg.

For his career he shoots 45.3% from the field, 34.4% from 3 and he is 26 years old. For his position he is above average in blocks, steals and turnover rate, average in rebounds and below average in assists. He is having the worst year of his career but using this season (which isn't even half over) to judge his whole career is ridiculous.

If someone wants to argue that Gay had been average or even a little above average during his career, I wouldn't spend time arguing. But, folks are claiming he's a top 5-10 SF, which is demonstrably absurd.

Even if we take the most generous REALISTIC assessment of his standing in the league, there's no good argument in favor of acquiring him. He's average or a little better for his career, he's having the worst season of his career, and he's absurdly, preposterously overpaid.

It's just nonsensical for the Wizards to trade for him. Just as nonsensical as the Okariza deal.

[keynote]

So, statistically speaking, who are the top 10 SFs in the NBA?
Lebron, Durant, Melo; then some assortment of Pierce, George, Batum? I'd guess that Gay would be in the next tier, along with Deng and Gallinari.

[Ruzious]

Think about it this way - If the Wiz end up picking Muhammad, the Wiz would likely be stuck with Gay for 3 years on the bench with a per year contract that's higher than the current max allowed by the CBA. And it would have been done intentionally.

Probably not a good plan.

Who says the Wizards are locked into picking Muhammad with Gay onboard? They can now bring in Noel for paint defense, rebounding, and also another "running mate" for Wall.

Nobody said that - including me. It's a scenario to consider. I'd love to get Noel, but I think he's going to be the 1st pick, and there's a chance that the Wiz don't get the 1st pick - and Muhammad might very well be the player who they think is the BPA when they pick.

[tontoz]

I would choose not to trade for Gay at this point but some of the criticism i see is a bit over the top. This is the first year since Gays rookie year that he has had a TS% below 50%. He had 5 straight years with a TS% of 52 or better which isn't great but isn't bad either, especially for a guy who scores nearly 20 ppg.

For his career he shoots 45.3% from the field, 34.4% from 3 and he is 26 years old. For his position he is above average in blocks, steals and turnover rate, average in rebounds and below average in assists. He is having the worst year of his career but using this season (which isn't even half over) to judge his whole career is ridiculous.

If someone wants to argue that Gay had been average or even a little above average during his career, I wouldn't spend time arguing. But, folks are claiming he's a top 5-10 SF, which is demonstrably absurd.

Even if we take the most generous REALISTIC assessment of his standing in the league, there's no good argument in favor of acquiring him. He's average or a little better for his career, he's having the worst season of his career, and he's absurdly, preposterously overpaid.

It's just nonsensical for the Wizards to trade for him. Just as nonsensical as the Okariza deal.

I have to disagree here. If the Wizards did trade for Gay they would not be giving up an capspace that would otherwise be available (barring other trades). The Okariza trade blew two years worth of capspace that would have definitely been available. Most importantly if they trade for Gay they would be getting a player who could easily be traded if he didn't work out.

You have said yourself time and again that teams overvalue scoring. Given that Gay is only 26 and has a long history as a successful scorer that would obviously mean he would be easily tradable.

I also don't buy scoring efficiency as the only valid measure of scoring ability. That mindset ignores the fact that there is a shot clock. With only 24 seconds to shoot there are times that you have to just throw the ball to your best scorer at the end of the clock and hope that they can make something happen. No team is going to throw the ball to Tyson Chandler at the end of the clock and expect him to be successfull going 1 on 1.

[Ruzious]

There is also one other possibility.

Derrick Williams+filler to save Washington cash
Webster+Crawford+Okafor to L.A. saves L.A. cash and gets ideal role players for them
Minnesota gets their man for their favored price

I like where this is going, but I'm not thrilled about giving up Webster. Find a way to give up Ariza instead (even if we have to take on a bigger contract in return) and I'd do it.

I would definitely make Jajwanda's trade. Webster's a solid pro and seems very likable, but he's a free agent to be. And if he wants and the Wiz want - he can sign with the Wiz in the offseason whether he's traded or not.

[closg00]

The Wizards have had conversations with the Memphis Grizzlies in recent days to discuss what it would take to acquire Baltimore native Rudy Gay, two sources with knowledge of the discussions confirmed.
One source familiar with the Wizards’ plans added that they are “pushing for” the services of a borderline all-star talent that leads the Grizzlies in scoring at 17.8 points per game.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... -rudy-gay/


Say good-bye to our 1st-round pick.

[Ruzious]

The Wizards have had conversations with the Memphis Grizzlies in recent days to discuss what it would take to acquire Baltimore native Rudy Gay, two sources with knowledge of the discussions confirmed.
One source familiar with the Wizards’ plans added that they are “pushing for” the services of a borderline all-star talent that leads the Grizzlies in scoring at 17.8 points per game.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wiz ... -rudy-gay/


Say good-bye to our 1st-round pick.

If I was a fly on the wall in a Wiz meeting with Ted, Ernie, and the rest of the front office, I'd be hoping for someone to swat me.

At this point, I'm hoping they trade Okariza for Gay - just as long as they don't trade a 1st - because I have no confidence in the Wiz decision-making process.

[closg00]

+1 Ruz, Hollinger knows what a chump Ernie is, the Griz FO must be licking their chops.

[miller31time]

A little surprised EG is so willing to work with a guy who routinely rips the Wizards organization to shreds.

You'd think Grunfeld would say to himself "Now Ernie, this guy thinks I can't build a team. He thinks I'm an idiot who makes some of the worst moves in professional sports. Why is he so eager to get a deal done with me? Has Hollinger turned over a new leaf? Has his cold heart heated up? Has it grown 10 sizes overnight? Or is it deeper than that? THINK, Ernie. THINK. What could that sneaky Hollinger be up to?!?!"

Unfortunately, the next thought is...

"I'd better lessen my offer from 3 first rounders to 2. That'll show him!"