Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[Upper Decker]

With all the Bennett talk i have been looking at Beasley trying to figure out why he isn't more successful. Looking through his numbers the problem is obvious, he is channelling Blatche. He loves taking long, contested 2s and doesn't take it to the basket/get to the line.

If Beasley had sense i think he could be a good player. But like the saying goes if the doughnut didn't have a hole it would be a danish.

Is he taking long 2s because he has a tough time getting his shot down low? I think that's the real reason. He has a tougher time getting his shots around the hoop with longer taller athletes. That's the trouble with tweeners and short PF's. Heck even Boozer takes most of his shots from 15 feet. The difference is Boozer is wet from 15.

[Nivek]

Beasely's horrific performance in the NBA is baffling. The guy was a MONSTER in college. High usage AND efficient. Good percentages from everywhere. If I wanted to REALLY nitpick, I might say that his 2pt% was perhaps a tiny bit on the low side, but...he shot 56% from 2pt range so, not really. He was a terrific rebounder. He got steals. He blocked shots. His turnovers were a little high, but well within the acceptable range considering his usage level. Maybe he could have passed more?

And he did all that as a freshman.

He measured like a PF. His agility times were on the quick side for a SG. His vertical jumps were average for a SF. His bench press was at the outer limits for any position.

And he's a cataclysmic bust.

[Nivek]

With all the Bennett talk i have been looking at Beasley trying to figure out why he isn't more successful. Looking through his numbers the problem is obvious, he is channelling Blatche. He loves taking long, contested 2s and doesn't take it to the basket/get to the line.

If Beasley had sense i think he could be a good player. But like the saying goes if the doughnut didn't have a hole it would be a danish.

Is he taking long 2s because he has a tough time getting his shot down low? I think that's the real reason. He has a tougher time getting his shots around the hoop with longer taller athletes. That's the trouble with tweeners and short PF's. Heck even Boozer takes most of his shots from 15 feet. The difference is Boozer is wet from 15.

Beasley isn't tweener size. His standing reach is 8-11, which is average for a PF.

Boozer isn't tweener size either, by the way. His standing reach was 9-0.5, which is a little above average for a PF.

[The Consiglieri]

When healthy, your team is dangerous and all you need is a productive SF. How about this trade?

Bulls Get: #3 Pick & Trevor Ariza
Wizards Get: Luol Deng & CHI 2015 Pick

Assuming McLemore is still available at #3, this deal gives us a young-athletic shooting guard that can develop next to Rose and allows Butler to become the starting SF. The Wizards on the other hand is one reliable SF away from becoming a dangerous team in the East. If you're team is not sold on Porter, we have Deng to offer to provide production at SF and veteran leadership in the locker room. He is also an All-Star who will fit perfectly next to Wall and Beal.

Fillers would have to be included to make the salaries match. Ariza will probably opt-in on the final year of his contract so he has to be in the trade to make the trade work.

Granted there are rumors everywhere that just about every squad picking between 2 or 3 and the 7th slot or so is interested in moving down, and few teams are offering much to move up, but I certainly would still have no interest in that deal. Why give away a rookie w/plenty of promise on a rookie deal for several years, for an expensive vet w/a limited ceiling but decent floor? No offense it just strikes me as idiotic. I'll grant, however, that that is our franchises bread and butter (making idiotic deals, particularly involving draft picks ('04, and '09), and idiotic selections ('06, '11 etc)).

I honestly think it's probably rather unlikely that anyone inside the top 5 or 6 will be willing to deal like that, at the 7 or 8 slot, it may be different as the mediocre draft runs from tier 1 and tier 2, to the bottom of the barrel before that 8 or 9-25 area where all the guys are relatively of similar value, with either high floor's and low ceilings (Zeller, Olynyk), or low floors and fairly good ceilings (Len, Saric, Schroeder, Carter-Williams, Adams, Adetokoubo, Gobert, Karasev, Mitchell ) or the litter box of bust targets, and possibly decent values (Plumlee- well not really, he's a bust in my view, Hardaway Jr, Dieng, Crabbe etc).

[tontoz]

With all the Bennett talk i have been looking at Beasley trying to figure out why he isn't more successful. Looking through his numbers the problem is obvious, he is channelling Blatche. He loves taking long, contested 2s and doesn't take it to the basket/get to the line.

If Beasley had sense i think he could be a good player. But like the saying goes if the doughnut didn't have a hole it would be a danish.

Is he taking long 2s because he has a tough time getting his shot down low? I think that's the real reason. He has a tougher time getting his shots around the hoop with longer taller athletes. That's the trouble with tweeners and short PF's. Heck even Boozer takes most of his shots from 15 feet. The difference is Boozer is wet from 15.

The big difference is that Boozer has always played the 4. He gets to the rim over twice as much as Beasley. Bigs struggle to stay with Boozer off the dribble so he gets a lot of open jumpers.

Beasley can get by guys easily when he plays the 4. At the 3 it is tougher and he has spent most of his time at the 3. Plus i think he is just not that interested. He got his money and it seems like that is all he wanted.

[tontoz]

It'd be interesting if Fuzzy and Sergio opened up a fried chicken restaurant together.

I am sure they would have the best whine selection of any fried chicken restaurant in the country.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Orlando needs a SG as bad as it needs a PG. I could see them drafting McLemore for his athleticism & upside compared to Burke.

They have two very young wings that they like a lot in Harkless and Tobias. They also have Afflalo. If they're in love with Oladipo or Mclemore, I can see them going that route, but I think their PG need is deeper and my guess is they take Burke

Either way I'm thinking Porter is a virtual lock to be there. I think Noel is a safe bet for #1 and a G will go #2. I'm leaning towards Porter as the pick. But I'm not 100% sold on him just yet. Oladipo is really intriguing. What separates him from McLemore IMO is that he is more of slasher although his handle is still somewhat unpolished. And despite being a jr, and McLemore a frosh, Oladipo is 3 months younger than McLemore.

I agree. I do see some D-Wade in Oladipo and think it's critical that the Wizards do some deep, deep due diligence on him and projecting his upside. If they're of the belief that he has superstar potential, then I think you consider picking him while quietly (silently) seeing what kind of stud you can get for Beal. His trade value would be enormous. I'm not advocating such a move (lord knows I've loved Beal since he showed up on our radar over a year ago), but you need to do the due diligence.

On Porter, I think it's a good bet that you're getting someone like Kawhi Leonard -- not necessarily stylistically, but someone without one single eye-popping skill, but a very good all (and I mean ALL) around player. I think he'll always have great on-off numbers; the team will function better when he;s on the court. He'll get deflections, force misses, corral rebounds, cut to open spaces, hit open shots, make key passes. He'll likely never get his proper due for his impact because he's not going to cross guys up, dunk all over trees and pound his chest. But I think the guy is a winner and will fit like a glove here.

I'm not really considering Burke. I don't think he's an ideal fit and while he'll be okay, I question his upside.

I still like Olynyk. Bennett is just too much of a risk. Len was okay at #8, I'm not in love with idea of drafting him 3rd. I find Gobert intriguing, just don't know enough yet. Same with Schroeder. Zeller is more late lottery to me.

I like Olynyk but sort of view him as a luxury we can't afford. Your bigs simply need to excel on D. I'd be more comfortable gambling on Len, Adams or Gobert if we can wrangle our way into a second pick. I get that there is risk, but I'm after that defensive upside.

I'm open to trading the pick as well. Trading for Horford or Ibaka would be very tempting. Trading down for Ryan Anderson would be fine by me.

OPen to this as well. Given their roster, New Orleans may prefer Porter or Oladipo to Anderson and Len. Horford is interesting. Trading for him would certainly help us; it could also open the door for a Hawks superteam built around Dwight, CP3, and Josh Smith. Plug in Ariza, Oladipo and whatever they can on the bench and they're instant contenders in the East . I'm usually of the mind that you worry about helping your team and not about the opposition, but wow.

Orla

[The Consiglieri]

When healthy, your team is dangerous and all you need is a productive SF. How about this trade?

Bulls Get: #3 Pick & Trevor Ariza
Wizards Get: Luol Deng & CHI 2015 Pick

Assuming McLemore is still available at #3, this deal gives us a young-athletic shooting guard that can develop next to Rose and allows Butler to become the starting SF. The Wizards on the other hand is one reliable SF away from becoming a dangerous team in the East. If you're team is not sold on Porter, we have Deng to offer to provide production at SF and veteran leadership in the locker room. He is also an All-Star who will fit perfectly next to Wall and Beal.

Fillers would have to be included to make the salaries match. Ariza will probably opt-in on the final year of his contract so he has to be in the trade to make the trade work.

I would absolutely not make that deal. I would much rather use the pick on Porter than trade for Deng. And Chicago's late future draft picks are practically worthless as team building assets to us. Why would we give Ariza up on top of that?

Ariza would have to be in the deal to make the trade work financially. I understand the intrigue about Porter, but to me your Wizards is on a win-now mode, and Deng provides solid production at SF that can propel the Wizards to a Top 5 team in the East when healthy.

Wiz were on a 45 win pace during a stretch when 2 of their best 4 starters were injured. I think they're 45 capable, and there is zero reason to add Deng to the mix. We would have been interested in him perhaps if not for the Okariza deal and if we were still at #8. Unfortunately the Okariza mistake happened, and fortunately we jumped to #3. No need whatsoever for that deal, and it would be idiotic, for all the reasons you'd want #3, and rid of Deng, we'd want #3, and not Deng.

[Nivek]

With all the Bennett talk i have been looking at Beasley trying to figure out why he isn't more successful. Looking through his numbers the problem is obvious, he is channelling Blatche. He loves taking long, contested 2s and doesn't take it to the basket/get to the line.

If Beasley had sense i think he could be a good player. But like the saying goes if the doughnut didn't have a hole it would be a danish.

Is he taking long 2s because he has a tough time getting his shot down low? I think that's the real reason. He has a tougher time getting his shots around the hoop with longer taller athletes. That's the trouble with tweeners and short PF's. Heck even Boozer takes most of his shots from 15 feet. The difference is Boozer is wet from 15.

The big difference is that Boozer has always played the 4. He gets to the rim over twice as much as Beasley. Bigs struggle to stay with Boozer off the dribble so he gets a lot of open jumpers.

Beasley can get by guys easily when he plays the 4. At the 3 it is tougher and he has spent most of his time at the 3. Plus i think he is just not that interested. He got his money and it seems like that is all he wanted.

One of my theories on Beasley is that he got screwed by his perceived athleticism. Coaches thought they could make him into a big SF when he was well-suited physically to play PF. His measurements and athletic tests were nearly identical to Kevin Love's, but no one dreamed of making Love into a SF.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Orlando needs a SG as bad as it needs a PG. I could see them drafting McLemore for his athleticism & upside compared to Burke.

They have two very young wings that they like a lot in Harkless and Tobias. They also have Afflalo. If they're in love with Oladipo or Mclemore, I can see them going that route, but I think their PG need is deeper and my guess is they take Burke

Either way I'm thinking Porter is a virtual lock to be there. I think Noel is a safe bet for #1 and a G will go #2. I'm leaning towards Porter as the pick. But I'm not 100% sold on him just yet. Oladipo is really intriguing. What separates him from McLemore IMO is that he is more of slasher although his handle is still somewhat unpolished. And despite being a jr, and McLemore a frosh, Oladipo is 3 months younger than McLemore.

I agree. I do see some D-Wade in Oladipo and think it's critical that the Wizards do some deep, deep due diligence on him and projecting his upside. If they're of the belief that he has superstar potential, then I think you consider picking him while quietly (silently) seeing what kind of stud you can get for Beal. His trade value would be enormous. I'm not advocating such a move (lord knows I've loved Beal since he showed up on our radar over a year ago), but you need to do the due diligence.

On Porter, I think it's a good bet that you're getting someone like Kawhi Leonard -- not necessarily stylistically, but someone without one single eye-popping skill, but a very good all (and I mean ALL) around player. I think he'll always have great on-off numbers; the team will function better when he;s on the court. He'll get deflections, force misses, corral rebounds, cut to open spaces, hit open shots, make key passes. He'll likely never get his proper due for his impact because he's not going to cross guys up, dunk all over trees and pound his chest. But I think the guy is a winner and will fit like a glove here.

I'm not really considering Burke. I don't think he's an ideal fit and while he'll be okay, I question his upside.

I still like Olynyk. Bennett is just too much of a risk. Len was okay at #8, I'm not in love with idea of drafting him 3rd. I find Gobert intriguing, just don't know enough yet. Same with Schroeder. Zeller is more late lottery to me.

I like Olynyk but sort of view him as a luxury we can't afford. Your bigs simply need to excel on D. I'd be more comfortable gambling on Len, Adams or Gobert if we can wrangle our way into a second pick. I get that there is risk, but I'm after that defensive upside.

I'm open to trading the pick as well. Trading for Horford or Ibaka would be very tempting. Trading down for Ryan Anderson would be fine by me.

OPen to this as well. Given their roster, New Orleans may prefer Porter or Oladipo to Anderson and Len. Horford is interesting. Trading for him would certainly help us; it could also open the door for a Hawks superteam built around Dwight, CP3, and Josh Smith. Plug in Ariza, Oladipo and whatever they can on the bench and they're instant contenders in the East . I'm usually of the mind that you worry about helping your team and not about the opposition, but wow.

Along with Burke, Carter-Williams also makes a lot of sense for Orlando. I think they are deep in young wing players.

I also think Oladipo has star value that eclipses Porter's. Drafting Oladipo to trade down for Porter or Olynyk is the way I would like the Wizards go.

[pancakes3]

Beasely's horrific performance in the NBA is baffling. The guy was a MONSTER in college. High usage AND efficient. Good percentages from everywhere. If I wanted to REALLY nitpick, I might say that his 2pt% was perhaps a tiny bit on the low side, but...he shot 56% from 2pt range so, not really. He was a terrific rebounder. He got steals. He blocked shots. His turnovers were a little high, but well within the acceptable range considering his usage level. Maybe he could have passed more?

And he did all that as a freshman.

He measured like a PF. His agility times were on the quick side for a SG. His vertical jumps were average for a SF. His bench press was at the outer limits for any position.

And he's a cataclysmic bust.

I agree. I was going to reply to Tontoz's post that it's even less obvious what makes Beasley unsuccessful if you put yourself in a GM's shoes pre-draft. He was a KILLER. Great stats on great percentages in volume, and only 31mpg. The physicals grade out, AND he's a lefty.

I think the groundwork is still there though. He had a 20ppg season with Minny a couple seasons ago. My friend saw him in Vegas a year or so ago by himself with Beats headphones, sunglasses, not gambling, not partying, not drunk, just standing outside on the sidewalk. He was there for a while. He might have depression. He might be otherwise chemically imbalanced. The talent is there. Maybe a homecoming would do him some good. He's kinda pricey though.

[GhostsOfGil]

I think the groundwork is still there though. He had a 20ppg season with Minny a couple seasons ago. My friend saw him in Vegas a year or so ago by himself with Beats headphones, sunglasses, not gambling, not partying, not drunk, just standing outside on the sidewalk. He was there for a while. He might have depression. He might be otherwise chemically imbalanced. The talent is there. Maybe a homecoming would do him some good. He's kinda pricey though.

He was probably high as ****

[manifested]

Beasely's horrific performance in the NBA is baffling. The guy was a MONSTER in college. High usage AND efficient. Good percentages from everywhere. If I wanted to REALLY nitpick, I might say that his 2pt% was perhaps a tiny bit on the low side, but...he shot 56% from 2pt range so, not really. He was a terrific rebounder. He got steals. He blocked shots. His turnovers were a little high, but well within the acceptable range considering his usage level. Maybe he could have passed more?

And he did all that as a freshman.

He measured like a PF. His agility times were on the quick side for a SG. His vertical jumps were average for a SF. His bench press was at the outer limits for any position.

And he's a cataclysmic bust.

I think it's kind of simple. He loves weed way too much and never got motivated to put in the work.

[rockymac52]

Can one of you draft experts enlighten me on why Alex Oriakhi isn't a bigger prospect? It seems like he doesn't even have a shot at being drafted in the 2nd round anymore, and I can't figure out why. I admit I'm biased because I'm a Mizzou fan, but I've tried really hard to look past that and analyze him objectively, and I think I'm doing a good job at that, but at the same time, I still think he's a phenomenal prospect. So what am I missing? Please, someone explain to me what's missing from his game.

[The Consiglieri]

Noel would be nº1, I don't if the Cavs would trade the pick or whatever, but he'll be nº1

If Porter is #1 one on the Cavs bored than they can't trade down to get him because they know the Wiz will grab him at 3.

Cavs could take porter 1. Trey or Oladipo could both go as high as 4 so I doubt Orlando would trade down either.

Wiz take Noel at 3.

If they really want Porter, I wonder if it would only take minor incentive to trade up from #3 to #1 to draft Noel. Something like Seraphin + #3 for #1. I'm not crazy about paying Noel 1st overall pick money to spend his first two seasons getting healthy and gaining weight, but in the long run, it could really pay off.

I'd be on the phone to Cavs 36 hours ago if I knew they were this amenable to a trade down to 3. Noel is the only player in this draft other than Bennett who has a reasonable chance at becoming a true franchise, max contract guy. The rest of them have much lower odds in my view (Guys like Oladipo, Burke, Len, Gobert etc).

[Nivek]

I sorta wanted to take a flyer on Beasley last offseason when I thought he'd be a real bargain -- something like the money Webster ended up getting. Maybe have a team option on a 2nd season and a mutual option on a third year or something to give him a shot at Bird rights and a bigger future pay day. And, I would have stuck him at PF and told my coaching staff that if they tried him at SF, I'd fire them.

But then Phoenix went and gave him 3 years for $18 million (only the first two years guaranteed).

By the way, he didn't have a 20ppg season in Minny. Best he did was 19.2, but it was on awful efficiency. Classic case of a guy putting up a high scoring average on a bad team because he could shoot whenever he wanted.

[Dark Faze]

Question for Oladipo supporters: Other than his efficiency this year, was there anything other than his athleticism that makes you think he can be a big scorer in the NBA?

We're talking about a guy who only fired off 8 shots a game despite his efficiency.

You can't trust the longball stats at all. He made 30 threes the whole year. That sample size is terrible. So there isn't any evidence to suggest he's a great shooter.

That'd be OKAY because slashing twos can be very effective ala D-Wade, but then you look at his free throw rate--3.6 free throw attempts a game as a JUNIOR? That doesn't speak well of dominant slashing ability. Wade averaged 7.5 FTA a game and averaged over 20 PPG as a sophmore. Harden averaged over 7.7 a game as a soph and he could actually shoot.

Not saying Dipo is going to be either of those guys, but 3.6?

And he's barely shooting the ball? He has a negative assist to turnover ratio as well.

I really don't even think he's worth taking in the top 10 to be honest. Nothing statistically supports him being all that good at anything other than defense.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Lord, DJ Stephens broke max vertical, 3/4 sprint and max reach records, last one was holded by O'Neal.

The guy is a monkey

Since March Madness I've called him, Zeke Marshall, and Nate Wolters the most underrated prospects.

Stephens is a freak athlete and one worthy of a late first round pick.

The challenge with Stephens is what position he'll play in the NBA. He's undersized for a PF, and he had a subpar bench press (for a PF) at the combine. His agility score was about average for a PF, but his sprint was freaky fast and his vertical is incredible.

His potential NBA team has to figure what kind of player he should be. A Rodman-like robo-rebounder and defender? He'll need to get stronger. And, he's not as long as Rodman was. A Bowen-like 3&D SF? Size is about right. He shot the 3pt shot decently in his senior season, but on just 36 total attempts. He didn't shoot the 3 at all really his first 3 years at Memphis.

He also didn't play much overall -- just 23.6 mpg as a senior, and much less than that previously.

This is the kind of guy I'd want to pick up in the late 2nd round or as an undrafted free agent. I wouldn't want to spend a first round pick (even late in the first round) on him because his bust potential is high. His boom potential is also there, of course. I'd want him if the acquisition cost was low.

He's like a shorter, more athletic, Jan Vesely. Not sure where he fits but at #54 why not select him?

Stephens was very effective in limited minutes at Memphis. His story is compelling. I think he's a bit like Jeremy Evans and Othyus Jeffers. Guys who don't get minutes despite almost always positive contributions and good team play when they are on the floor.

(Even Jan had this effect as a rookie, when he wasn't playing scared and timid).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Can one of you draft experts enlighten me on why Alex Oriakhi isn't a bigger prospect? It seems like he doesn't even have a shot at being drafted in the 2nd round anymore, and I can't figure out why. I admit I'm biased because I'm a Mizzou fan, but I've tried really hard to look past that and analyze him objectively, and I think I'm doing a good job at that, but at the same time, I still think he's a phenomenal prospect. So what am I missing? Please, someone explain to me what's missing from his game.

I am not a paid expert, but Oriakhi's numbers as a rebounder are off the chain. He had effective moments at U Conn and Mizzou. However, Muscala dominated him and the Tigers fizzled in the NCAAs. How is his defense? Are there off court issues? Gotta be a reason Oriakhi is not higher.

[Nivek]

Can one of you draft experts enlighten me on why Alex Oriakhi isn't a bigger prospect? It seems like he doesn't even have a shot at being drafted in the 2nd round anymore, and I can't figure out why. I admit I'm biased because I'm a Mizzou fan, but I've tried really hard to look past that and analyze him objectively, and I think I'm doing a good job at that, but at the same time, I still think he's a phenomenal prospect. So what am I missing? Please, someone explain to me what's missing from his game.

Funny you should mention him because YODA has him as a late 1st round pick. His size is fine for a PF (9-0 standing reach). He's slow, but strong. Not a great leaper, but good reach and good strength would help compensate for that.

His production was good. Extremely efficient -- .639 2pt% so he finishes well inside. Good FT% suggests he may be a competent mid-range jump shooter in the NBA. Good rebounds and blocks.

DX doesn't even have him in their top 100. Wow.

Speaking of guys no one's talking about, who knows something about Arsalan Kazemi?