Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[Ruzious]

Raptors - Casey - 3 years $15 Mil

Houston - D' Antonio, 3 years $15 Mil

Knicks - Hornacek, 3 years $15 Mil

Wizards - Brooks, 5 years $35 Mil

Picture in your mind a desperate and needy Ernie Grunfeld, standing up when Scott Brooks walks through the door. Ernie: "Look Scott please, 5 years $35 Million fully guaranteed, let me know if I need to go higher to get this deal done today"

See BigA's classic picture above (post 505). EG's had the keys for forever (for most GM's shelf-lives) and has only a few first round playoffs series wins to show for it. And he failed to put up a roster that could attract Durant - which was clearly their goal. Now, he's positioned the team to wayyy overpay Beal - most likely in an attempt to stay mediocre. Unfortunately, he's got a lot of support from idiots in the local media who have no basketball analytical skills and go along with any Monumentally misleading excuse that's thrown out there.

[DCZards]

See BigA's classic picture above (post 505). EG's had the keys for forever (for most GM's shelf-lives) and has only a few first round playoffs series wins to show for it. And he failed to put up a roster that could attract Durant - which was clearly their goal. Now, he's positioned the team to wayyy overpay Beal - most likely in an attempt to stay mediocre. Unfortunately, he's got a lot of support from idiots in the local media who have no basketball analytical skills and go along with any Monumentally misleading excuse that's thrown out there.

I agree that Beal, assuming he signs a max contract, will be way overpaid. But I don't see how that's EG's fault....unless you believe it would be better for the Zards to let Beal walk, which is a highly debatable option.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Raptors - Casey - 3 years $15 Mil

Houston - D' Antonio, 3 years $15 Mil

Knicks - Hornacek, 3 years $15 Mil

Wizards - Brooks, 5 years $35 Mil

Picture in your mind a desperate and needy Ernie Grunfeld, standing up when Scott Brooks walks through the door. Ernie: "Look Scott please, 5 years $35 Million fully guaranteed, let me know if I need to go higher to get this deal done today"

And you thought all those 2nd round picks that get sold off for cash just went for ivory backscratchers. Turns out they do go for ivory backscratchers, just those backscratchers belong to Brooks and not Ted.

[Ruzious]

See BigA's classic picture above (post 505). EG's had the keys for forever (for most GM's shelf-lives) and has only a few first round playoffs series wins to show for it. And he failed to put up a roster that could attract Durant - which was clearly their goal. Now, he's positioned the team to wayyy overpay Beal - most likely in an attempt to stay mediocre. Unfortunately, he's got a lot of support from idiots in the local media who have no basketball analytical skills and go along with any Monumentally misleading excuse that's thrown out there.

I agree that Beal, assuming he signs a max contract, will be way overpaid. But I don't see how that's EG's fault....unless you believe it would be better for the Zards to let Beal walk, which is a highly debatable option.

There is no reason to believe any team will offer him the max - other than the Wiz. He's had a major injury in each of his 4 seasons in the NBA and missed games because of 4 separate injuries this past season. He hasn't played up to anywhere near max level and has shown only minimal improvement in his 4 seasons. He still hasn't shown the ability to draw fouls and still takes too many low efficiency shots. And if you believe the local media, the Wiz let it leak that they do plan to offer him the max. The stupidity in that is - they haven't even let the free agency process determine what other teams would offer in free agency - they've already pretty much guaranteed that they'll offer him the max - or at least given that impression to Beal and his agent. In effect, they've negotiated against themselves.

[closg00]

Grunfelded, he always panics, every time.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Ran my doppelganger machine on Markieff Morris' 27 games with the Wizards. Not a particularly illustrious group: Ilyasova, Nocioni, Van Horn, Troy Murphy, Tim Thomas, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Jeff Green.

The name that shows up a BUNCH (six times in the 20 most similar seasons) is Tim Thomas. When Grunfeld was GM in Milwaukee, he traded Tyrone Hill and Jerald Honeycutt to acquire Thomas then gave him a $68 million contract. In exchange for star-level pay, Thomas provided the Bucks with one average season and four below average seasons before getting traded to the Knicks.

[Ruzious]

Ran my doppelganger machine on Markieff Morris' 27 games with the Wizards. Not a particularly illustrious group: Ilyasova, Nocioni, Van Horn, Troy Murphy, Tim Thomas, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Jeff Green.

The name that shows up a BUNCH (six times in the 20 most similar seasons) is Tim Thomas. When Grunfeld was GM in Milwaukee, he traded Tyrone Hill and Jerald Honeycutt to acquire Thomas then gave him a $68 million contract. In exchange for star-level pay, Thomas provided the Bucks with one average season and four below average seasons before getting traded to the Knicks.

Yeah, Ernie had his original "Big Three" of Glenn Robinson, Ray Allen, and Sam Cassell. And Ernie and George Karl were infatuated with Tim Thomas - until he actually played. He passed all the eye tests and thensome and had some skills, but he just didn't have the instincts to put it all together with any consistency - and never produced big on any level - he had basically a Marceiff Morris type career.

[DCZards]

There is no reason to believe any team will offer him the max - other than the Wiz. He's had a major injury in each of his 4 seasons in the NBA and missed games because of 4 separate injuries this past season. He hasn't played up to anywhere near max level and has shown only minimal improvement in his 4 seasons. He still hasn't shown the ability to draw fouls and still takes too many low efficiency shots. And if you believe the local media, the Wiz let it leak that they do plan to offer him the max. The stupidity in that is - they haven't even let the free agency process determine what other teams would offer in free agency - they've already pretty much guaranteed that they'll offer him the max - or at least given that impression to Beal and his agent. In effect, they've negotiated against themselves.

I think you're wrong when you say "there is no reason to believe any team will offer him the max--other than the Wiz." Despite the injuries and other issues you raise, Beal is widely considered one of the top ten free agents, especially when you're talking about the young, unrestricted free agents available. With all of the free agency money that's going to be out there this offseason, I'd bet that there is at least one or two other teams that are prepared to offer BB a max contract.

[fishercob]

There is no reason to believe any team will offer him the max - other than the Wiz. He's had a major injury in each of his 4 seasons in the NBA and missed games because of 4 separate injuries this past season. He hasn't played up to anywhere near max level and has shown only minimal improvement in his 4 seasons. He still hasn't shown the ability to draw fouls and still takes too many low efficiency shots. And if you believe the local media, the Wiz let it leak that they do plan to offer him the max. The stupidity in that is - they haven't even let the free agency process determine what other teams would offer in free agency - they've already pretty much guaranteed that they'll offer him the max - or at least given that impression to Beal and his agent. In effect, they've negotiated against themselves.

I think you're wrong when you say "there is no reason to believe any team will offer him the max--other than the Wiz." Despite the injuries and other issues you raise, Beal is widely considered one of the top ten free agents, especially when you're talking about the young, unrestricted free agents available. With all of the free agency money that's going to be out there this offseason, I'd bet that there is at least one or two other teams that are prepared to offer BB a max contract.

Ah yes, the old "widely considered" line. Grunfeld used that when trading the #5 pick because that draft was "widely considered" to be weak, just as he used it to draft Vesely who was "widely considered" to be a lotto pick. You can't lean on conventional wisdom and ever expect to be anything other than mediocre.

[Ruzious]

There is no reason to believe any team will offer him the max - other than the Wiz. He's had a major injury in each of his 4 seasons in the NBA and missed games because of 4 separate injuries this past season. He hasn't played up to anywhere near max level and has shown only minimal improvement in his 4 seasons. He still hasn't shown the ability to draw fouls and still takes too many low efficiency shots. And if you believe the local media, the Wiz let it leak that they do plan to offer him the max. The stupidity in that is - they haven't even let the free agency process determine what other teams would offer in free agency - they've already pretty much guaranteed that they'll offer him the max - or at least given that impression to Beal and his agent. In effect, they've negotiated against themselves.

I think you're wrong when you say "there is no reason to believe any team will offer him the max--other than the Wiz." Despite the injuries and other issues you raise, Beal is widely considered one of the top ten free agents, especially when you're talking about the young, unrestricted free agents available. With all of the free agency money that's going to be out there this offseason, I'd bet that there is at least one or two other teams that are prepared to offer BB a max contract.

Ah yes, the old "widely considered" line. Grunfeld used that when trading the #5 pick because that draft was "widely considered" to be weak, just as he used it to draft Vesely who was "widely considered" to be a lotto pick. You can't lean on conventional wisdom and ever expect to be anything other than mediocre.

At least let the market play itself out before saying you're going to offer him the max. Also, the fact that the caps are going up considerably means the max is going up considerably. It's quite a lot higher than when Wall got the max. And Beal hasn't shown anywhere near what Wall showed - not even considering health issues.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I think you're wrong when you say "there is no reason to believe any team will offer him the max--other than the Wiz." Despite the injuries and other issues you raise, Beal is widely considered one of the top ten free agents, especially when you're talking about the young, unrestricted free agents available. With all of the free agency money that's going to be out there this offseason, I'd bet that there is at least one or two other teams that are prepared to offer BB a max contract.

Ah yes, the old "widely considered" line. Grunfeld used that when trading the #5 pick because that draft was "widely considered" to be weak, just as he used it to draft Vesely who was "widely considered" to be a lotto pick. You can't lean on conventional wisdom and ever expect to be anything other than mediocre.

At least let the market play itself out before saying you're going to offer him the max. Also, the fact that the caps are going up considerably means the max is going up considerably. It's quite a lot higher than when Wall got the max. And Beal hasn't shown anywhere near what Wall showed - not even considering health issues.

In fairness to DCZards, his point is that Beal is likely to get big offers from a team or two. Despite Beal's mediocre play and frequent injuries, I think there's a good chance he'll get a max offer from a team other than the Wizards. There's going to be $600 million in new salary available leaguewide next year, with at least half that in the form of cap room.

With that said, I think going max on Beal is a high-risk move for whoever does it. It's pretty likely that whatever team ends up signing him for a max salary contract will end up regretting it.

And with that said, I agree the smart play would be for the Wizards to let another team set the market. If Beal signs an offer sheet, the Wizards can match. If no one makes him a big offer, Washington's bargaining position would be improved and perhaps they could get him re-signed for a contract more in line with his performance.

[fishercob]

Ah yes, the old "widely considered" line. Grunfeld used that when trading the #5 pick because that draft was "widely considered" to be weak, just as he used it to draft Vesely who was "widely considered" to be a lotto pick. You can't lean on conventional wisdom and ever expect to be anything other than mediocre.

At least let the market play itself out before saying you're going to offer him the max. Also, the fact that the caps are going up considerably means the max is going up considerably. It's quite a lot higher than when Wall got the max. And Beal hasn't shown anywhere near what Wall showed - not even considering health issues.

In fairness to DCZards, his point is that Beal is likely to get big offers from a team or two. Despite Beal's mediocre play and frequent injuries, I think there's a good chance he'll get a max offer from a team other than the Wizards. There's going to be $600 million in new salary available leaguewide next year, with at least half that in the form of cap room.

With that said, I think going max on Beal is a high-risk move for whoever does it. It's pretty likely that whatever team ends up signing him for a max salary contract will end up regretting it.

And with that said, I agree the smart play would be for the Wizards to let another team set the market. If Beal signs an offer sheet, the Wizards can match. If no one makes him a big offer, Washington's bargaining position would be improved and perhaps they could get him re-signed for a contract more in line with his performance.

Agreed. My snark was directed to Ernie, not DCZ.

But, this is where I think the Wiz need to strategically use Beal's RFA status. Scare people off by telling them they are matching no matter what. If nothing else, the fact that the Wiz can offer the fifth year should enable them to get something in return from Beal.

[DCZards]

At least let the market play itself out before saying you're going to offer him the max. Also, the fact that the caps are going up considerably means the max is going up considerably. It's quite a lot higher than when Wall got the max. And Beal hasn't shown anywhere near what Wall showed - not even considering health issues.

Truth is, I have yet see a quote from the Zards front office or management saying that the team is going to offer Beal the max. All we have to go by at this point is "press reports."

EG and Co. may indeed "let the market play itself out"...although I'm guessing they already have a pretty good idea as to what Beal will be offered by other teams and which teams might make a run at him.

[closg00]

Kev, off the top of your head ( or more if possible , do any of the SG's projected to be available at 13 look like an equal or better replacement for Beal had we kept the pick. Thanks if you've got something.

[payitforward]

Great question -- still... if we had the #13 pick I'd hope to use it on the BPA, and -- just going by DR's current mock for the moment -- that seems not to be a 2. DR has Deyonta Davis going at that pick, and they also rate him the #10 prospect in the draft (hence, something of a bargain at #13). At #15 they have Ellenson, whom they rate as the #13 best prospect.

Now... if we still had the #13, and you thought it could be traded (somehow) for #20 and #22, then in theory you could take Valentine and Zuzic, whom DR has at those spots in the mock but whom the site rates as actually the #12 and #20 prospects. In this case, we'd have gone some distance to start rebuilding the team.

(All speculative of course... but way better than having no picks!)

[TheSecretWeapon]

Kev, off the top of your head ( or more if possible , do any of the SG's projected to be available at 13 look like an equal or better replacement for Beal had we kept the pick. Thanks if you've got something.

I haven't had time to do much with YODA lately, but among guys I've analyzed Denzel Valentine jumps out. He rates like a top 5 pick, but is 20th in DX's latest mock.

Not a SG, but Brice Johnson also rates like a top 5 pick, and he's expected to be a late 1st or an early 2nd.

I think taking a summer league/training camp look at Thomas Walkup makes a ton of sense. He's older (I think 24 now) and played against relatively weaker competition in college, but he dominated against that competition. He has a mid-first grade in YODA, and probably won't be drafted. I'd take a look.

[Ruzious]

Kev, off the top of your head ( or more if possible , do any of the SG's projected to be available at 13 look like an equal or better replacement for Beal had we kept the pick. Thanks if you've got something.

Valentine is a can't miss prospect and could be there at 13 (even though, as Dat said, he looks just like Temple). He may end up playing more 3 than 2, because he's got the length to play 3. He was the most enjoyable player to watch in college ball last season - except when he was beating Maryland.

[I_Like_Dirt]

But, this is where I think the Wiz need to strategically use Beal's RFA status. Scare people off by telling them they are matching no matter what. If nothing else, the fact that the Wiz can offer the fifth year should enable them to get something in return from Beal.

I'm fairly confident that the CBA doesn't work that way anymore. Any sign and trade involving Beal has to be for a contract of 4 years or less. If the Wiz sign him to a 5 year deal, they have to keep him. Sign and trades have to involve contracts of no less than 3 years but no more than 4 years.

-and-trade contracts must be for at least three seasons (not including any option year) and no longer than four seasons

Also, any raises would have to be ones that the other team could offer anyway.

The starting salary in a contract signed for a sign-and-trade may be any amount up to the player's maximum, however if the player meets the 5th Year 30% Max criteria he cannot receive a salary greater than 25% of the cap. Raises are limited to 4.5%. The player may be considered to have a lower outgoing salary for trade purposes, which can complicate the trade.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q91

Basically, a sign and trade does Beal no more good than simply accepting an offer sheet with somebody else, only with an offer sheet, he either goes to the team he signs with or stays with the Wizards, whereas with a sign and trade he gives up control of where he goes to the Wizards for no particular reason. The only way he accepts a sign and trade is if he's so miserable with the Wizards that he wants no part of being matched and would literally rather play anywhere else - of course, if it comes to that, Ernie is going to find himself fielding a bunch of lowball offers.

[tontoz]

I'm fairly confident that the CBA doesn't work that way anymore. Any sign and trade involving Beal has to be for a contract of 4 years or less. If the Wiz sign him to a 5 year deal, they have to keep him. Sign and trades have to involve contracts of no less than 3 years but no more than 4 years.

That is my understanding too.

[verbal8]

I'm fairly confident that the CBA doesn't work that way anymore. Any sign and trade involving Beal has to be for a contract of 4 years or less. If the Wiz sign him to a 5 year deal, they have to keep him. Sign and trades have to involve contracts of no less than 3 years but no more than 4 years.

That is my understanding too.

His point wasn't that Beal could be traded, but that he would take less than the 5 year maximum contract it exchange for the 5th year. For example a flat contract would be 27% less than another team's max offer, but the 5th year would make the whole contract worth more.