Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[dckingsfan]

Sounds like youd prefer both of them to be backups ideally.

I kind of feel that they both are backups at this point in their careers (well, on good teams anyway). One thing Rui is 2 1/2 years younger. I also felt that he took a step forward last season especially when looking at the circumstance of the beginning of the season.

I feel he could take an even larger jump this season. IMO - I don't see Kuz taking the same jump. You?

Absolutely. If only one can go, I'd rather it be Kuzma.

That said, there's a substantial danger of over-paying Rui. He's a strong business asset. & another over-pay contract would just be another nail in the coffin.

But, hey, I could be wrong! It's always possible to envision some kind of a path to success, even if the chances are small.

Rui could take a really big jump this year & become a truly good player.
Beal could return to the level of his best seasons & maybe even better.
Porzingis might do what he's never done.
Morris, being young & already good, may take another step up.
Deni might correct his problem areas while continuing to get better at the stuff he's already good at.
Kispert could increase the volume & % of his shooting.
Gafford might show that he can handle 25+ minutes including time on the floor with KP.
Barton & Wright may suffer no decline in their 30s.
Kuzma may take the kind of jump he took between his 3d & 4th year.
Johnny Davis might become as good an NBA player as he was in college.
Vernon Carey might do the same.

Plus, who knows? Next year, we might pick someone in R1 who's as good as Clarke or Thybulle or Williams or Johnson were back in 2019
Then in 2024, we might pick a guy who's at the level of Halliburton in 2020; you never know. & somehow manage to get another R1 pick, a late one, & add a player as good as Desmond Bane. Maybe, in a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, we'll even come away with a R2 pick at the level of the dozen or so outstanding players you know I could mention. Plus -- because anything can happen -- maybe we'll figure out how to actually manage the draft to maximize the talent we take away every year (you know... the way Memphis does?).

If we do all that -- & if Brad gives us a little better deal on the contract he signs for his years from 35-40 -- we could conceivably be a good team 6-9 years from now. Nothing's for sure, of course, but it's possible.

[AFM]

I know that post is satire but it reminds me of Kevin’s old signature here “combining both delusional optimism and defeated crushing pessimism”

[payitforward]

I know that post is satire but it reminds me of Kevin’s old signature here “combining both delusional optimism and defeated crushing pessimism”

Hey, we're all still here.... Weird, ain't it?

In honor of which, especially "delusional optimism," check out my new signature!

[doclinkin]

Whereas I have no idea why Kuz is a statistical negative in the +/- stats except that he is an inefficient and streaky scorer. What I have said is that he plays as if he is better than he actually is. The thing is oddly, it may be an aberration, but he has a tendency to hit shots in clutch situations and play better when the stakes are higher. My answer is sports therapy or a hypnotist LOL. He can score 30-40 on efficient shooting often enough that coaches expect good production from him, then he will force a bunch of shots and brick them all. Or the scouting report catches up with him and he does not have a countermove. But he rebounds, works on defense, has a decent sense of where to be, lacks significant strength for the PF position and is not terribly quick at the SF position but has a decent face-up game, makes smart cuts, can finish inside. If I had one area of improvement for him I'd want him to hit the 3pt shots he takes at any point in the game with the improved efficiency he shows taking those shots late in the game. If so the rest of his game opens up and he forces opposing bigs to leave the paint and chase him outside. I think though re-signing Brad for giant money may affect Kuz' game. He has been 'ready' to take that next step for a while but has been overtaken by events. LeBJ taking up all the air in the room. AD taking his natural position (stretch 4). Brad gunning for a contract and being fastened at the hip to our owner. Kuz played well with Brad out and next to Porzingis, I'd be interested to see if that continues, since KP draws a ton of attention and frees Kuz up to attack any mismatch that results. I don't know if this role is possible if Brad is trying to be a superhero to live up to his paycheck. The Kuz who is not a focal point may check out and be disinterested in the way that he is not when the team needs him for a clutch basket or rebound.

[nate33]

Kuz played well with Brad out and next to Porzingis, I'd be interested to see if that continues, since KP draws a ton of attention and frees Kuz up to attack any mismatch that results.

I agree with most of your post. One small quibble here though. Kuzma only played a total of 4 games alongside Porzingis. He got hurt shortly after Porzingis arrived. The sample size is too small to be meaningful.

FWIW, Kuzma averaged 21 points per 36 minutes during the 4 games he played alongside Porzingis, on a TS% of .513. He posted 5 assists per 36, but with 4.3 turnovers.

I agree completely with the part about Kuzma playing well with Brad out.

[Kanyewest]

For some reason, I can't completely give up on Rui yet given that he's addressed one of the biggest weakness in his game which was his 3 point shooting which was 46 % last season. Granted his rebounding numbers were pretty dreadful although they were less terrible to close out the season- he looked like he was rounding into better physical shape


I would be open to a trade offer - simply because the Wizards have too many guys and someone is going to be left out of the rotation although I'm no sure what team would be willing to give up for him.

[DCZards]

Good post, doc. I expect the Zards offensive dynamic to be dramatically changed by the presence of Morris. Wes will likely run an offense with Montae as the primary ballhandler. (Morris has already said that his top goal is increasing his assist #s.)

The presence of Morris (along with the playmaking role that Wes appears to have carved out for KP) will make it possible for Beal (and Kuz) to play more off the ball, creating a better situation for both Beal and Kuz…and the team overall.

Last season, Beal was too often forced to play PG/SG. And when Beal was injured and Dinwiddie was traded Kuz often became the primary ball handler. That needed to change and I'm hopeful with Morris and Wright on board it will.

[dckingsfan]

Let's make this thread sticky already... really the most important thread for next year - maybe the only one.

[Frichuela]

It would make sense if Barton could come in from the bench, as it seems Tommy alluded to. He is more of a shot creator who needs the ball in his hands. This would mean that one of Deni/Rui/Kispert starts. My preference would be Deni as he is better defensively than the other 2 (plus has the biggest upside).

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[NatP4]

I could care less about the rotation at the beginning of the year, but I wanna see this starting 5 eventually: Wright-Beal-Kispert-Avdija-Porzingis, with a bench unit of Morris/Davis/Rui/Gafford. Sprinkle in some Dotson or Gill at times.

I think it’s all headed in the right direction, but Wes will definitely overuse Barton&Kuzma to start the year.

[doclinkin]

Kuz played well with Brad out and next to Porzingis, I'd be interested to see if that continues, since KP draws a ton of attention and frees Kuz up to attack any mismatch that results.

I agree with most of your post. One small quibble here though. Kuzma only played a total of 4 games alongside Porzingis. He got hurt shortly after Porzingis arrived. The sample size is too small to be meaningful.

FWIW, Kuzma averaged 21 points per 36 minutes during the 4 games he played alongside Porzingis, on a TS% of .513. He posted 5 assists per 36, but with 4.3 turnovers.

I agree completely with the part about Kuzma playing well with Brad out.

The impression was off memory, but going by game logs on Bref I have Porzingis joining the line-up on 3/6 and Kuzma's last game at 3/18. Looks like 6 games to me since Zinger sat out one of the games. In that stretch Kuzma was his usual streaky self, but in 6 games stretch Kuz had a games of 8 ast (one turnover), 7 ast (vs 2TO), 9 ast (vs 4TO).

Where Kuz commonly posts a negative on/off +/- the line-up he played next to Poringis was one of his only positive +/- lines. In that line-up the team was +16 Free Throw attempts per 100 possessions. Yes we are in small sample size numbers (70 minutes) but it to my recollection the spacing provided by an inverted front court (Kuz and Porzingis playing above the FT line, Rui hitting 3's) helped spring KP loose for double digit FT attempts. Playing next to Satoransky helped KP's game as well, though Kuz was mostly in a line-up next to Neto in this stretch (Raul, KCP, Kispert, Kuz, Zinger). Kuzma was more of a playmaker than the supposed PG Neto in these line-ups.

Still, sure, it's damning with faint praise to say Kuzma 'no longer had a negative +/-' when he played with fill-in-the-blank, and it probably says more for Porzingis than Kuzma, but it didn't hurt KP either. Joining a face-up front court that initiated from outside, Porzingis had the highest Free Throw attempt rate of his career.

Ok, we are talking small sample sizes with anything relating to Porzingis, all's I'm saying is Kuzma with the ball next to Zinger looked good in the minutes I saw. That he passed well and looked comfortable next to him is a good thing, not bad. Even if Kuz with the ball in his hands is as streaky in passing as he is in shooting.

Which is the thing with Kuz. One game he has an 8/1 ast/TO ratio, the next game it is 4/3. Or 3/4. You'd hope with maturity and experience these ratios would improve, but then this was Kuz' first year as a playmaker, with new teammates, and a re-shuffling line-up, so you never know. So far it is hard to counter the argument that Kuzma is maybe and sometimey at best. It just seems to me that Kuzma has more statistical variance than other players in the league. Good Kuzma will win you all the games that Bad Kuzma tosses away.

[dckingsfan]

I could care less about the rotation at the beginning of the year...

You sure about this - pretty sure you are going to lose some hair the first weeks of the season with a Morris/Beal/Barton/Kuzma/Porzingis starting lineup.

[nate33]

I could care less about the rotation at the beginning of the year, but I wanna see this starting 5 eventually: Wright-Beal-Kispert-Avdija-Porzingis, with a bench unit of Morris/Davis/Rui/Gafford. Sprinkle in some Dotson or Gill at times.

I think it’s all headed in the right direction, but Wes will definitely overuse Barton&Kuzma to start the year.

I like your starting lineup here and I too hope we see it. But it's highly unlikely, not to mention of questionable merit, to actually remove Kuzma completely from the rotation. I think he makes sense on the 2nd unit as another do-everything combo forward like Avdija, only with more shot creation (to offset our lack of shot creation at backup center).

I could see your starting lineup, with a second unit of Morris/Barton/Rui/Kuzma/Gafford. The 2nd unit roles would be pretty much the same as the starting roles: point guard - perimeter shot creator - catch and shoot assassin - do everything combo forward - center.

If Davis earns minutes, he'll have to take them from somebody. I doubt that's going to happen in the first three months, unless there are injuries.

[Dark Faze]

I think we're just going to play the best lineups we can, regardless of where guys were drafted. Coach had a bad year last year, the FO is under attack, and the expectation is that Brad will request a trade if things go sideways. I think we're gonna run with whoever we think gives us the best chance to win.

I don't think there's anything wrong with that at this point. If those guys can't outplay Barton and Kuz, then it is what it is.

[DCZards]

I think we're just going to play the best lineups we can, regardless of where guys were drafted. Coach had a bad year last year, the FO is under attack, and the expectation is that Brad will request a trade if things go sideways. I think we're gonna run with whoever we think gives us the best chance to win.

I don't think there's anything wrong with that at this point. If those guys can't outplay Barton and Kuz, then it is what it is.

Agree.

[NatP4]

I could care less about the rotation at the beginning of the year...

You sure about this - pretty sure you are going to lose some hair the first weeks of the season with a Morris/Beal/Barton/Kuzma/Porzingis starting lineup.

I’m going to wait to tune in until Kuzma and Barton are far away.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The lineup I would like to see is a frontcourt of Porzingis with Hachimura & Kuzma. All the conversations point to the team banking on a foundation of Beal, Porzingis & Kuzma. Rui seems to be the one out of him, Avdija & Kispert the most prepared to step into the starting spot. With a full regular off-season & training camp, following the last couple hectic seasons with covid, olympics, sitting out, etc, he will hopefully bounce back with an improved game and mindset and have his best season. Kuz showed last season the skill, scoring, playmaking and versatility to play the 3. I like the length and switchability we'd have with that lineup. The backcourt I would go Wright with Beal to pair Wright's size and defense with Beal to help overcome his areas of weakness. The offense can be run through Porzingis in the high post. I'd bring the shooting of Kispert and Barton off the bench with the D of Gafford & Deni, with Morris running the point and/or can run the offense through Deni.

What I anticipate however is a starting 5 of KP, Kuz, Barton, Beal, Morris. This is not my preference, but I see some benefits in WUJ's familiarity and trust in Barton & Morris (and vice versa), and the tone and example that can be set by the vets. Also the chemistry already in place between Morris and Barton, as well as Morris and Kuzma. And I could see this unit really gelling. Off the bench with Gafford, Rui, Deni, Kispert, Wright, should be a good unit defensively, with Rui and Kispert adding midrange & long distance offense respectively. Kispert & Rui have chemistry, and I like the defense of Wright paired with Kispert. And Deni can be utilized in this group to initiate the offense, with Gafford doing his thing under the basket on both ends.

[dckingsfan]

I could care less about the rotation at the beginning of the year...

You sure about this - pretty sure you are going to lose some hair the first weeks of the season with a Morris/Beal/Barton/Kuzma/Porzingis starting lineup.

I’m going to wait to tune in until Kuzma and Barton are far away.

- made me laugh...

[dckingsfan]

IMO, under the heading of setting the stage for Morris, Beal, Wright lineups.

"I look at Bradley [Beal] as a third point guard," Tommy Sheppard told NBC Sports Washington's Chris Miller. "He averaged over six assists last year. There's gonna be times where we have three point guards out on the floor.

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/wizards-gm-tommy-sheppard-views-bradley-beal-teams-third-point-guard

[barelyawake]

My why we are underrated, and if not who cares, rant…

I believe we are in a position to create one of the best teams we’ve had in decades. Better than the Wall years. Better than the Arenas years. Better than the Jordan years. And people are missing some key reasons why. No doubt that us being good (and I mean fourth in the conference good) is based on some gambles paying off. But, here’s the thing. If they don’t pay off, they probably will lead to disaster (a complete meltdown). And that disaster is a ticket to the Victor sweepstakes.

First misconception
If healthy, KP is going to kill it next year. If not, see the Victor sweepstakes outcome. However, all signs point to him shutting a lot of people up, next season. Because we are going to do the unthinkable (for most NBA franchises). We are going to base our offense around a guy like KP. And that’s all he’s ever wanted. It’s insanity. No franchise would do it. And it just could work.

KP had problems in New York because of bad press. He had problems in Dallas because Luka, the system and injuries. First, I think Luka is an arrogant prick. I’d have problems with him too. But, Dallas stuck a guy with knee problems and delusions of grandeur out on the trey line. That’s not where he belongs. He is late stage Tim Duncan. And we should build the team, since we aren’t dismantling it, around that idea. You plant him at the foul line because he’s unstoppable from there with a myriad of shots and moves, and don’t task him with moving a lot (thus risking his knees). And on D, you stick him under the basket and let him clog the lane and block shots. Especially since he’s stronger now than he’s ever been.

Second Misconception
Beal is done. Man, this board loves proclaiming that everyone over the age of 23 and 1/2 are washed up. Beal is an emotional player/guy. That effects a lot of his game. Last year, he had Covid three times, his grandmother died, and half the team rebelled against him calling him the ball hog he called Wall. Beal, at heart, is the “let everyone eat” guy. When you ask him to do too much, he tries too hard on offense. Making him a point guard is like asking a kid to guard the cookie jar.

You need a smart point making the decisions of when and where Beal gets the ball. When the pressure is off him to “be the man,” he takes smarter shots and plays good enough defense to not be a liability (if the rest of the team is defensive-minded to be his safety net).

Misconception Three
We blew the draft. I mean, we probably did blow the draft, by picking a guy who doesn’t have the highest ceiling. I’m quite certain there will be a handful of players who end up better than Davis that we passed on. But, when you are creating a team around Beal and KP (two guys who have complained about point guards taking all the shots), you want guys like Morris and Davis at the point. Guys from Denver said Morris is so smart and likable he should run for President. Davis is a levelheaded leader in the making as well. If we can get Davis to become half-Morris/half-Delon, that’s kinda the perfect point to pair with Beal. I wanted Murray and I like KCP quite a bit, but Morris is Kuzma’s buddy, and that helps team stability.

Misconception Four
This team is in disarray. They had a meltdown last year, and they have no direction or unity. I don’t see that. I see a team that seems to hang together more than any team we’ve ever had. I think that is Kuzma’s greatest strength. He a good guy. Rui and Deni are good guys. And KP got welcomed into a place that wants to build around him. He’s happy. Beal’s happy.

So, don’t stress me on the strained Spurs analogy. I get we aren’t the Spurs and certainly don’t have their coach or talent. I’m merely using them as a framework. So, to be Spurslike, what do you need? We have aging Tim Duncan posted at the key. Now, you need a second scorer in aging Parker. We have Beal. Not the same, obviously. But, at least offensively, they do similar jobs. You need a very good scorer off the bench. We might have that in Rui or Davis (obviously ours is a tad worse than theirs). You need great team passing; great defense; and shooters like Green. Look I said the analogy was strained. And we aren’t winning a championship next year. But…

Morris/Davis
Beal/Delon
Deni/Kispert
X/KP/Taj
KP/Gafford

Looks sorta like what I mean about the Spurs. Delon, Deni, Taj and Davis are going to be good defenders. KP is going to block shots. Kisp and Morris are good shooters. Now, you have Barton (expiring), Kuzma, Rui and draft picks to trade at trade deadline get X. And how good you get out of X determines how good this team will be. And there is still a 12% - 16% chance Rui or Kuzma become the player we need in terms of high teen scoring, distribution and roaming help defense.

So, the goal of the start of next season is to showcase those three, and then trade them (with picks) for a guy like Siakam. Problem is you have to showcase them, without letting their lack of defense kill you, and stay around a five seed. Then, trade them with picks for a star who plays defense. It is an insane plan that no other team would dream of doing, but it might work.

And if not, GOOD. I want Victor anyway…