Jan Vesely Part II: He a Bust

[nate33]

CCJ if you keep reaching like this you might dislocate your shoulder. I have heard that is very painful.

I have been right and virtually all of you wrong more than once. This time I am more than confident I am right

Vesely's career WS/48: 0.70
Seraphin's career WS/48: 0.36

I am astounded that after all these years many of think I don't have a clue. Vesely's problem's are largely emotional and with coaching and with his fear of failing. Fans hating on a 22-year old can have a devastating affect.

Regardless, I see wins, positive win score in situations, success when playing with a stretch four and at 10-15 pounds lighter....

Vessels can be a very useful NBA player and I bet he would under most other teams.

Those WS/48 numbers are heavily influenced by Vesely getting big minutes in 6 end-of-season wins last year in meaningless games against teams playing out the string. If Vesely had Seraphin's misfortune of logging big minutes early this year without Wall, his WS numbers would have dropped dramatically.

Name one time in the past 5 years where you have been right and most of us wrong. Yeah, you like Faried, but so did most of us. We just didn't like him at #6. Everyone would have taken him at #15. I think history will show that most of the guys taken ahead of Faried will end up being better than him (Irving, Kanter, Valanciunas, Leonard, Vucevic, Klay Thompson, maybe even Tristan Thompson).

[tontoz]

CCJ if you keep reaching like this you might dislocate your shoulder. I have heard that is very painful.

I have been right and virtually all of you wrong more than once. This time I am more than confident I am right

Vesely's career WS/48: 0.70
Seraphin's career WS/48: 0.36

I am astounded that after all these years many of you seem to me to think I don't have a clue. IMO Vesely's problem's are largely emotional and with coaching and with his fear of failing. Fans hating on a 22-year old can have a devastating affect.

Regardless, I see wins, positive win score in situations, success when playing with a stretch four and at 10-15 pounds lighter....

Vessels can be a very useful NBA player and I bet he would under most other teams.

Vesely's problems were evident before he came to the NBA. He couldn't rebound or shoot in Europe. When you are as weak as he is you'd better be able to shoot and he can't shoot at all.

I don't think playing for the Wizards is the reason he airballs foul shots.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Trying to use Jared Jeffries to validate Jan Vesely as an NBA player is probably a bad idea if your trying to change people's opinions.

No one in here is clamoring for the next Jared Jeffries.

I won't change anybody's opinion. I can give reasons why I feel the way I do. We can discuss things in the future, God-willing.

I am not arguing that Vesely is great or even good. We all wanted Faried, Leonard, Thompson, and others like Vucevic or Brooks more than Jan Vesely. I am arguing he was useful as a rookie before the trade for Okafor and Ariza.

I am calling out fans who habitually throw players under the bus when management and coaching flux creates obstacles that crush young players' careers.

I am calling out fans who hate guys who have hustled their ass off and showed resolve in the past. I have cheered a bunch for Vesely--regardless of me driving the Faried bus two years before EG drafted Jan.

Vesely may well end up like Pecherov, but I think a smarter organization would fit him in like a piece of a puzzle.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ if you keep reaching like this you might dislocate your shoulder. I have heard that is very painful.

I have been right and virtually all of you wrong more than once. This time I am more than confident I am right

Vesely's career WS/48: 0.70
Seraphin's career WS/48: 0.36

I am astounded that after all these years many of think I don't have a clue. Vesely's problem's are largely emotional and with coaching and with his fear of failing. Fans hating on a 22-year old can have a devastating affect.

Regardless, I see wins, positive win score in situations, success when playing with a stretch four and at 10-15 pounds lighter....

Vessels can be a very useful NBA player and I bet he would under most other teams.

Those WS/48 numbers are heavily influenced by Vesely getting big minutes in 6 end-of-season wins last year in meaningless games against teams playing out the string. If Vesely had Seraphin's misfortune of logging big minutes early this year without Wall, his WS numbers would have dropped dramatically.

Name one time in the past 5 years where you have been right and most of us wrong. Yeah, you like Faried, but so did most of us. We just didn't like him at #6. Everyone would have taken him at #15. I think history will show that most of the guys taken ahead of Faried will end up being better than him (Irving, Kanter, Valanciunas, Leonard, Vucevic, Klay Thompson, maybe even Tristan Thompson).

No, nate. I made all the points about Vesely I can in my last post. You put 5 years in there. But if you insist: Flip Saunders. But the majority of what I am thinking of was before DX and other scouting came up to speed, years ago.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ if you keep reaching like this you might dislocate your shoulder. I have heard that is very painful.

I have been right and virtually all of you wrong more than once. This time I am more than confident I am right

Vesely's career WS/48: 0.70
Seraphin's career WS/48: 0.36

I am astounded that after all these years many of you seem to me to think I don't have a clue. IMO Vesely's problem's are largely emotional and with coaching and with his fear of failing. Fans hating on a 22-year old can have a devastating affect.

Regardless, I see wins, positive win score in situations, success when playing with a stretch four and at 10-15 pounds lighter....

Vessels can be a very useful NBA player and I bet he would under most other teams.

Vesely's problems were evident before he came to the NBA. He couldn't rebound or shoot in Europe. When you are as weak as he is you'd better be able to shoot and he can't shoot at all.

I don't think playing for the Wizards is the reason he airballs foul shots.

We knew his FT% in Europe. I knew UMCP's James Gist was a teammate and as PF did the heavy lifting while Jan free lanced on the perimeter.

Nowhere have I said he improved.

The Wizards asked him to bulk up, change positions, and played him significantly less starts, less minutes, and pressured him by saying his head isn't right.

Even if true how about owning some blame from EG down?

What Vesely did in 20 starts, 2011-2012:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2012/

6.9 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.2 turnovers, 0.52 FG, 0.625 FT

25.6 minutes

This is not the stat line of a terrible rookie.

[tontoz]

Almost everyone here wants EG gone. Not sure what your point is there.

Even in his stretch of "good" plan he couldn't shoot a lick and got pushed around routinely by stronger players (which means virtually everyone). He is a garbage can and will surely be out of the league once his rookie deal is up.

[sfam]

Knowing what they know now, how do you think the Wizards would have managed Vesely different after drafting him? I'd guess they would have still tried to get him to put on weight and work on his rebounding technique, but would have left the guy's shot alone. Clearly that was an utter failure (whether it was Vesely's fault for not working it, or the Wizards, we don't really know - I'd guess both), and sapped Vesely's confidence.

[montestewart]

Knowing what they know now, how do you think the Wizards would have managed Vesely different after drafting him? I'd guess they would have still tried to get him to put on weight and work on his rebounding technique, but would have left the guy's shot alone. Clearly that was an utter failure (whether it was Vesely's fault for not working it, or the Wizards, we don't really know - I'd guess both), and sapped Vesely's confidence.

D-League might not have made a difference, but we'll never know. Unlike some other teams, EG seems to look at D-League as a source for fill in players, not a place to send roster players to get more court time.

With Vesely, it looks (from my limited view) like there was some combination of failure to recognize what kind of player he was before drafting him, and failure to aggressively attempt to address those issues when it became apparent that he was not adjusting well to the role(s) envisioned.

[Ruzious]

Again, my feeling on the Vesely failure was the last offseason was the tipping/turning point. Coming in out of shape and with no real skills improvement. Who's at fault? I don't know. There must have been a disconnect unless you think the Wiz coaches are completely incompetent and told him it was okay to get out of shape and not improve his skills. Could the disconnect have been avoided with a better system to monitor him? My guess is yes.

The lack of confidence thing is a reality, but I think it happened only because he was so pitifully prepared for the season - which again goes to the failed offseason.

[montestewart]

Again, my feeling on the Vesely failure was the last offseason was the tipping/turning point. Coming in out of shape and with no real skills improvement. Who's at fault? I don't know. There must have been a disconnect unless you think the Wiz coaches are completely incompetent and told him it was okay to get out of shape and not improve his skills. Could the disconnect have been avoided with a better system to monitor him? My guess is yes.

The lack of confidence thing is a reality, but I think it happened only because he was so pitifully prepared for the season - which again goes to the failed offseason.

We've seen plenty of players that are pretty self-directed, that go out of their way to figure out what they need to do to get better, to find trainers and coaches to help them, that put in the repetition and conditioning. If Vesely wasn't that type of player, that's a front office due diligence failure, and one it feels like I've seen before: drafting players with unusual athletic ability but lacking the motivation to change and adjust to the demands of their new role in the NBA. Maybe you can actually throw a lot of resources at a player like that and sometimes bring about useful change, but the Wizards organization doesn't strike me as the place that will happen.

Or maybe there actually was some sort of disconnect (at least as a contributing factor) where Vesely language/culture interfered with a full understanding of what he needed to do and how he could do it. Whatever the problem is, I haven't seen any solution.

[nate33]

I have trouble blaming management in this situation. I'm sure the coaches haven't been saying: "Whatever, Ves. Go ahead and work out at your own pace. We're not that worried if you show up next summer out of shape." This is 95% on Vesely, and perhaps 5% on management. I think management is absolutely correct in trying to have Vesely get stronger. It's Vesely's fault for not doing so in the proper manner.

The shooting part is the only thing where management may have some culpability. And even then, I'd have to know more about the situation to judge it. Did they really change his form 3 times, or was it just 3 progressive tweaks? How hard did Vesely work at it?

I think it's fair to say that the tweaking of his form has contributed to his lack of confidence, but what exactly are they supposed to do? Tell Vesely his form is great and that we don't mind that he shoots 53% from the FT line and 0% from 3-point range? Vesely clearly needed work. How was management supposed to foresee that working on his form would ruin his confidence?

[montestewart]

How was management supposed to foresee that working on his form would ruin his confidence?

I just wish they'd foreseen what a sucky player he'd be. Then maybe they wouldn't have to worry about his confidence.

[hands11]

Gotta say. I'm impressed to read so many we'll balanced posts about the situation instead of just pilling on the front office.

And I do believe a Ves countryman told us once that one of veselys problems was coming to camp not ready n the played his way into shape.

So if the front is to blame its for picking a player like that n thinking they could change them.

This is why I usually value personality evaluating so high. EG found another great athlete. But also another incomplete mind.

The is the nba. If you want to make it here you better be dedicated to working on your craft.

[Illuminaire]

This is why I usually value personality evaluating so high. EG found another great athlete. But also another incomplete mind.

The is the nba. If you want to make it here you better be dedicated to working on your craft.

Well said.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Swiped from my own blog, here's what Vesely did by month in his rookie season:

Code: Select all

MONTH           GMS     MPG     PPA
Jan 2012        14      14.9    21
Feb 2012        14      14.9    8
Mar 2012        14      17.4    77
Apr 2012        15      27.9    142
2011-12 Season  57      18.9    70


PPA is my summary stat measure. I've probably tweaked it since I posted this, but it wouldn't change any of these numbers by more than a couple points. In PPA, 100 = average, higher is better and 45 = replacement level. So, horrible start followed by major improvement. In April, he performed like a good NBA player.

Then this season -- in which his performance vacillated from horrific to "almost reaching replacement level" (January) and then back to horrific. He was one of the league's 5 least productive players last season (minimum 500 ).

In a closed system, things tend to stay the same. Whatever conditions were conducive to Vesely playing like a good player in April 2012 could, if simulated and recreated, might just work again.

A breach of a ship occurs when something penetrates the hull. It takes on water and could sink.

A breach in a relationship could be any broken trust that causes the rapport to go astray.

When one season the Wizards bring Nene as leader/veteran/mentor, and they allow James Singleton to space the floor, Kevin to be a go to big, and Wittman also utilizes Vesely BRILLIANTLY--but in the offseason Ted&EG acquire Ariza/Okafor-- It creates a breach. The old chemistry was destroyed. Young players not firm in their game or mindset were put in sink or swim mode, with the only thing guaranteed being LESS playing time, as they fend against each other for token minutes. I thought Wittman and the players had good chemistry but certain players got lost in the changes in personnel.

That is what screwed up Vesely and Seraphin the most. By the following season they were at times on the bench watching Earl Barron balling. The message this season is there are enough young guys--veterans made things better.

Vesely did not change but his developmental environment did. IMHO he should do all he can to encourage or force a trade. Fans blame him and he sounds embittered or disillusioned and not like he's on board with what he's being asked to do,

[hands11]

CCJ,

I don't think there are people on here that don't understand how things changed and how it affected the younger players.

But what you leave out is why they made those changes. I submit its because Wall and Beal were bigger priorities to get set first. Getting them to the playoffs and developing their games and confidence was the main goal. And took adding some experienced vets to a baby young team. Well the expiring Lewis contract was a asset they didn't want to just toss out and that contract allowed them to get Wall and Beal that help.

They still have Kevin, Ves and Singleton. If they want to fit in with an improved team, they can do it. They just have to put in the work and give the team the things they are asking for.

Personally, I have zero issue with management choosing Wall and Beal over the others.

And you know I have supported Ves like you are now. He does have some physical talent and some skills. But if he wants to get more court time and earn a role on the team, he has to at a min be a confident FT shooter. That isn't asking very much from an NBA player making millions.

There is simply no excuse for him not be able to hit at least 70 % from the line. He isn't uncoordinated. He doesn't even have bad form.

He can still become a good role player and if you can do that, you can by time to develop his game and confidence. Longer term he needs to be able to hit a wide open mid range. You just add those two very achievable skills to his game, and he could become a decent player which will extend his career so he can develop more.

Simply being a confident FT shooter. Thats all. And that is all on him. Period. Its the fact that he can't even get that done that is the tell tell sign that he is in bust territory. Fixing that would start to make people believe things could get better. If it stays the same, people will just throw there hands in the air.

No team is going to adjust what it is doing for a player like that. And they shouldn't.

But if he wants to stick around for the vet min on a one year deal, I'm sure some team would pay him that and see if a little more time helps get him straight. But even that team will expect him to work on something as basic as making a FT.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ,

I don't think there are people on here that don't understand how things changed and how it affected the younger players.

But what you leave out is why they made those changes. I submit its because Wall and Beal were bigger priorities to get set first. Getting them to the playoffs and developing their games and confidence was the main goal. And took adding some experienced vets to a baby young team. Well the expiring Lewis contract was a asset they didn't want to just toss out and that contract allowed them to get Wall and Beal that help.

They still have Kevin, Ves and Singleton. If they want to fit in with an improved team, they can do it. They just have to put in the work and give the team the things they are asking for.

Personally, I have zero issue with management choosing Wall and Beal over the others.

And you know I have supported Ves like you are now. He does have some physical talent and some skills. But if he wants to get more court time and earn a role on the team, he has to at a min be a confident FT shooter. That isn't asking very much from an NBA player making millions.

There is simply no excuse for him not be able to hit at least 70 % from the line. He isn't uncoordinated. He doesn't even have bad form.

He can still become a good role player and if you can do that, you can by time to develop his game and confidence. Longer term he needs to be able to hit a wide open mid range. You just add those two very achievable skills to his game, and he could become a decent player which will extend his career so he can develop more.

Simply being a confident FT shooter. Thats all. And that is all on him. Period. Its the fact that he can't even get that done that is the tell tell sign that he is in bust territory. Fixing that would start to make people believe things could get better. If it stays the same, people will just throw there hands in the air.

No team is going to adjust what it is doing for a player like that. And they shouldn't.

But if he wants to stick around for the vet min on a one year deal, I'm sure some team would pay him that and see if a little more time helps get him straight. But even that team will expect him to work on something as basic as making a FT.

hands, I think the primary reason Ted and Ernie traded for Okafor and Ariza was to get something for the money Ted would pay in a buy out. Ariza and Okafor struggled and did not appear in any playoffs with New Orleans immediately before the trade, I don't recall a plan where they were acquired to save Wall and Beal. No one in management as I recall pronounced the deal as a move toward making the playoffs or playing winning basketball for Wall and Beal by benching Jan Vesely.

Besides, the confidence of Wall and Beal might have been raised had Lewis been amnestied. Washington could have acquired veterans like Ilyasova, Ryan Anderson, and Danny Green.

I agree Vesely needs to be a confident FT shooter. He did shoot better each month that his minutes increased as a rookie.

His April 2012 FT shooting 62.5% was not that far off 70%. Vesely's rookie FT shooting virtually matched Tiago Splitter's rookie year FT shooting. Splitter played heavy minutes despite his 54.3% rookie year. The next season his minutes remained high and he shot 69.1%. The next 73.0%. I believe Vesely's 53.2% went down to 30.8% playing less minutes.

hands, how many bigs who play 12 or less minutes a game develop into confident FT shooters if they started poor FT shooters? No excuse for Jan but his splits show confidence with increased minutes. He might look less like a bust with MORE minutes.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lja01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... bile=false

The only quibble I have, hands, is with your suggestion of Vesely coming up to what the organization wants if he wants to fit in. I think asking JV to accept far less minutes, to change his body, to play a different role, to play under a different coach who may be less supportive than the fired coach who drafted Jav, and to only practice against established vet is unreasonable.

I think he should hit FTs and get in peak physical shape at the lighter weight he played best at.

Ask for a trade or release rather than waste time. Vesely should strive to be a consummate pro (fit, confident, able to hit FTs , great at 240 and not 260 where he loses his mobility and quickness) but one ready to be a former Wizard IMO.

[LyricalRico]

I agree Vesely needs to be a confident FT shooter. He did shoot better each month that his minutes increased as a rookie.

I think this applies to his whole game, CCJ. People keep focusing on that one stretch at the end of the year as if it happened in a vacuum and was either a glimpse he was about to take off or a complete anomaly. Maybe it was just him finally getting comfortable with more minutes. And maybe he really doesn't have a ceiling much higher than that, but I don't think anybody would say that having that version of Vesely every night can't help a team.

[b]The only quibble I have, hands, is with your suggestion of Vesely coming up to what the organization wants if he wants to fit in. I think asking JV to accept far less minutes, change his body, play a different role, play under a different coach who may be less supportive than the fired coach who drafted Jav, and to only practice against established vet is unreasonable.

Also an interesting point. Satoransky said JV is caught between two positions. It's actually more like 3 since they also play him at C sometimes when they go small. Very few guys can play all 3 frontcourt positions with any semblance of proficiency. I mean, we're debating over whether guys in the draft thread can play PF or C, but the Wizards are trying JV all over the place.

I think they drafted him as an athlete to run the wingswith Wall, so that lends itself to the perimeter IMO (and IIRC most draft sites listed him as a SF). But then he gets here and they seeming want him to be a factor in the paint. (Sort of the reverse of what happened with Pecherov - he had that stretch when he was awesome on the boards and most of us were at least somewhat hopeful about him, but EFJ's "offense" tried to make him into a spot up 3pt shooter and he bricked himself out of the rotation.)

I'd still like to see Vesely after a full year in the D-league. Even if the Wizards don't have their own affiliate where they can control every aspect of his development. Just get him some minutes, get his confidence up, and see if you can salvage this guy. Especially if they end up drafting a big.

[Nivek]

I have a little sympathy for the argument that Vesely, Singleton and Seraphin lost minutes because the team made the OkAriza deal. Only a little, though. The team, in effect, asked the Grundeld Kids to compete for their minutes. In various forms, all three shrank from the competition, which is bad for guys who want a place in a league as competitive as the NBA.

Vesely showed some promise as a rookie, but came to camp out of shape and with no discernible improvement in any basketball skill.

Singleton showed not a bit of improvement in any area of his game.

Seraphin shot more (and worse), never adjusted to how he was being defensed (resulting in rampant turnovers), and did even less board work.

If they want to be good players, all three need major work on their bodies and their games. And they need to somehow obtain a competitive attitude that makes them want to win playing time, win individual battles against opponents and help their team win games. That wasn't there last year. They were presented with a challenge. All three basically declined to compete for minutes, and for the most that carried over into their on-court performance.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think guys who came in making a combined $20 M supplanted minutes. There never was a fair competition. Young players got bumped downed and were scrutinized and castigated.

(That word sounds way too much like castrated).

Nivek, IMO they got dumped. Vesely came in out of shape? How was Emeka Okafor at the beginning of the season. Did he outplay Earl Barron? No, but his salary virtually matched Nene's. He played his way in shape. Check out his first 15 games and bare in mind the 142 PPA from Jan Vesely in his last 15 the season before.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2013/

I have to disagree on how guys have been evaluated. You could be right but IMO certain guys became scapegoats in typical Wizards feeding on their young fashion.

Camp changed and so did the agendas of management and coaches. It's like if you've taught a group of average students and over a break you add new students. Some of the new students might get preferential treatment because of things like the status of their parents, the clothes or physical appearance of the child; or the previously-attended, exclusive, preparatory schools on the child's transcript. Reputation may elevate then in teacher's eye and they become teacher's pet. Before you know it, last year's shining star pupil gets his or her seat moved -- facing away from the teacher. Poor kid might begin to act out for attention. Or maybe they quit trying to learn. Before you know it that child gets sent to the principal's office.

The Wizards are like that school and its teachers.

Jan Vesely is about to get expelled.