Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[gambitx777]

I don't think it's dead to trade wall. He will be back by next season no doubt. I'd say, the heat might be willing to trade dragic for wall. Still just straight up no bull ****. They can tank we can tank and they get a much better point guard in South Beach for next year.

[penbeast0]

Iggy suggested this on the Trade Board:

Wolves get:
Otto Porter
Bradley Beal

Wizards get:
Andrew Wiggins
Gorgui Deng
Tyus Jones
2019 1st (unprotected)
2021 1st (unprotected)
2023 1st (unprotected)
2025 1st (Top 11 protected)

The Wolves go from a near hopeless squad languishing at the bottom of the Western Conference to a very strong foundation around Towns that has the ability to become a legitimate contender. Rose/Beal/Covington/Porter/Saric/Towns is a hell of a group to build around going forward and almost guarantees Towns will re-sign with the team.

Meanwhile, the Wizards already have no chance of putting a decent product on the floor until 2023 thanks to the Wall deal so they might as well flip their legit assets for more bad deals and some future assets that will help them when it actually matters. In addition, the Wizards who are currently $6MM over the tax could actually get under the tax with this move.

Seems like a huge win for both sides, no?

I suggested modifying it with Gibson (and maybe a low end player if the contract isn't quite big enough) instead of Dieng. But I'm about at the blow it all up and start over level of frustration although I do think Wall is the main problem, not Beal/Porter. So, thought I would post it here as well.

[Eli Babak]

Those unprotected picks could be nice but not enough. Why give up an all-star and a good (but overpaid) player for overpaid big, trash Wiggins and expiring Jones (well, RFA)?

I'm naive but I want to believe Grunfeld & Brooks are gone after this season. This would be my plan:

1) Fire Grunfeld
2) Trade Ariza/Green/Morris for 2nds/cap relief and hopefully get under tax
3) Miss the playoffs and get a top-7 pick
4) Re-sign Satoransky and Bryant (and maybe Dekker) -> build around

Wall/Satoransky
Beal
Brown
Porter(/Dekker)
Bryant/Mahinmi(/Howard)
+ 2019 1st

Nobody's trading for Wall right now. Porter's value is very low because he's also struggled with injuries and hasn't played well. Beal is valuable but no need to trade him unless they get a crazy good offer.

Edit: Also fire Brooks after the season because he's awful coach. Get someone who actually has a system and holds players responsible. Pray Wall recovers like Conley did.

If things are not brighter next year then blow it up.

[nate33]

Those unprotected picks could be nice but not enough. Why give up an all-star and a good (but overpaid) player for overpaid big, trash Wiggins and expiring Jones (well, RFA)?

I'm naive but I want to believe Grunfeld & Brooks are gone after this season. This would be my plan:

1) Fire Grunfeld
2) Trade Ariza/Green/Morris for 2nds/cap relief and hopefully get under tax
3) Miss the playoffs and get a top-7 pick
4) Re-sign Satoransky and Bryant (and maybe Dekker) -> build around

Wall/Satoransky
Beal
Brown
Porter(/Dekker)
Bryant/Mahinmi(/Howard)
+ 2019 1st

Nobody's trading for Wall right now. Porter's value is very low because he's also struggled with injuries and hasn't played well. Beal is valuable but no need to trade him unless they get a crazy good offer.

Edit: Also fire Brooks after the season because he's awful coach. Get someone who actually has a system and holds players responsible. Pray Wall recovers like Conley did.

If things are not brighter next year then blow it up.

I think this will be the path going forward, everything except the fire EG part. Ariza and Morris clearly will not be on the roster next year. There is no reason whatsoever to retain them. They will be moved for luxtax relief and/or picks. It's merely a matter of finding the best deal. Sato, Geen and Dekker are conceivably cheap enough to be retained next year so trading them is optional depending on the return. Bryant and Brown are keepers.

Otto and Wall won't be traded while their values are depressed. Beal will only be traded if he quietly requests a trade.

[iggymcfrack]

Those unprotected picks could be nice but not enough. Why give up an all-star and a good (but overpaid) player for overpaid big, trash Wiggins and expiring Jones (well, RFA)?

I'm naive but I want to believe Grunfeld & Brooks are gone after this season. This would be my plan:

1) Fire Grunfeld
2) Trade Ariza/Green/Morris for 2nds/cap relief and hopefully get under tax
3) Miss the playoffs and get a top-7 pick
4) Re-sign Satoransky and Bryant (and maybe Dekker) -> build around

Wall/Satoransky
Beal
Brown
Porter(/Dekker)
Bryant/Mahinmi(/Howard)
+ 2019 1st

Nobody's trading for Wall right now. Porter's value is very low because he's also struggled with injuries and hasn't played well. Beal is valuable but no need to trade him unless they get a crazy good offer.

Edit: Also fire Brooks after the season because he's awful coach. Get someone who actually has a system and holds players responsible. Pray Wall recovers like Conley did.

If things are not brighter next year then blow it up.

Yeah, you're right that Tyus Jones probably doesn't make any sense. What if instead of Tyus the Wolves included Okogie and Tolliver? You'd get a little less salary relief, but Okogie's a young talent with a bright future. He's only 20 years old so he'd just be entering his prime by the time that the Wall and Wiggins albatrosses are off the books.

[Ruzious]

Hart reminds me of a smaller Otto Porter when I watch him play. He can be a middling shooter/glue guy but the effort/energy/consistency just isn’t there to become more.

But at his salary sure no complaints. He won’t make you cringe unlike Porter who has become a major financial burden.

You're both wrong. Actually, Indy's conclusion is reasonable, but Hart is a player who doesn't lack any intangibles - his effort/energy/consistency is/are perfectly fine - as they were when he led Villanova to a National Championship - and he was easily the best player on that team. What he lacks is great athleticism and the ability to create his own shot and shots for others. I would have loved to get him, but PIF keeps lauding him likes he's a developing superstar, and he simply doesn't have that kind of ability. And he'll be 24 in March, so he's not a kid. He's less than 2 years younger than Otto. Ball is obviously (imo) a better talent than Hart.

Otto is a bit over-paid, but a healthy Otto is a very valuable player. Brooklyn signed him to the contract that the Wiz matched, so it's not like Otto wasn't very highly thought of around the NBA. I think the Wiz made the right decision in matching. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Now, if the Wiz medical reports showed these health issues, that's another story - and there was a report about a chronic hip issues, so I don't know.

Since I agree point by point with what you write here, Ruz, I'm not sure what I'm "wrong" about. But if I am, I won't have any trouble admitting it.

You are right: Hart is certainly not "a developing superstar." If something I said seemed to indicate I thought he was, then I expressed myself badly. Sorry.

What he is, however, is a solid NBA guard whose overall production is already well above average in only his second year. Because he is under contract through 21-22 at a total cost of $12.4m, he is an incredible bargain -- esp. given his current level of production in only his 2d year. & I hope you'll agree that Josh Hart does have some upside, room for more development.

Now, Lonzo Ball is also under contract through '21-22 -- but the total cost of his contract is $41.5m, & it rises in a hurry (last two years are over $25m vs. @$8m in Hart's case). As I said, he's been pretty good (& right on cue, he blew up last night vs. Sac'to). You are certainly correct that he has much more upside than Hart -- but he's not the bargain Hart is, obviously.

Especially not, btw, if you consider their costs compared to absolute minimum. You have to field 14 guys, & $1.5m @ the minimum for a body on your roster in your uniform. Thus, over 4 years Hart costs $6.5m over the minimum you'd have to spend. Whereas Ball costs @ $35m over that minimum.

Hart is especially valuable, because (as I wrote in a previous post) for your team to be really good in a sport with a salary cap, you must have players whose production is a bargain for how much they're paid. Hart is that in spades. Ball is a bigger talent with a bigger potential upside. But, he's also a bigger risk.

Make sense?

Of course I'd love to have them both!

I think you have the numbers for Ball a bit wrong. The 21/22 year is just if he accepts his RFA 1 year option - which he likely won't do. He's really just effectively signed through 20/21 at $11,003,782. My crystal ball says he will not sign the $14,359,935 qualifying offer for 21/22. For 19/20 and 20/21 he'll be plenty cheap for a starting PG. Both Hart and Ball will be RFA's in 2021. Hart's certainly cheaper, but he should be cheaper.

[dckingsfan]

Wolves get:
Otto Porter
Bradley Beal

Wizards get:
Andrew Wiggins
Gorgui Deng
Tyus Jones
2019 1st (unprotected)
2021 1st (unprotected)
2023 1st (unprotected)
2025 1st (Top 11 protected)

The Wolves go from a near hopeless squad languishing at the bottom of the Western Conference to a very strong foundation around Towns that has the ability to become a legitimate contender. Rose/Beal/Covington/Porter/Saric/Towns is a hell of a group to build around going forward and almost guarantees Towns will re-sign with the team.

Meanwhile, the Wizards already have no chance of putting a decent product on the floor until 2023 thanks to the Wall deal so they might as well flip their legit assets for more bad deals and some future assets that will help them when it actually matters. In addition, the Wizards who are currently $6MM over the tax could actually get under the tax with this move.

Seems like a huge win for both sides, no?

I think there is no chance to put a decent product on the floor 2024 with Wiggins and Deng. I would rather wait and move Porter/Beal for less assets and no overhead salary.

[iggymcfrack]

Wolves get:
Otto Porter
Bradley Beal

Wizards get:
Andrew Wiggins
Gorgui Deng
Tyus Jones
2019 1st (unprotected)
2021 1st (unprotected)
2023 1st (unprotected)
2025 1st (Top 11 protected)

The Wolves go from a near hopeless squad languishing at the bottom of the Western Conference to a very strong foundation around Towns that has the ability to become a legitimate contender. Rose/Beal/Covington/Porter/Saric/Towns is a hell of a group to build around going forward and almost guarantees Towns will re-sign with the team.

Meanwhile, the Wizards already have no chance of putting a decent product on the floor until 2023 thanks to the Wall deal so they might as well flip their legit assets for more bad deals and some future assets that will help them when it actually matters. In addition, the Wizards who are currently $6MM over the tax could actually get under the tax with this move.

Seems like a huge win for both sides, no?

I think there is no chance to put a decent product on the floor 2024 with Wiggins and Deng. I would rather wait and move Porter/Beal for less assets and no overhead salary.

Dieng’s off the books in 2021. Wall and Wiggins both expire the same year in 2023. Basically the idea is that Wall’s going to hamstring the team until 2023 anyway so you might as well be ready to take a leap forward then with Okogie and the draft picks instead of fighting upstream at a game you can’t win and then having nothing to show for it when the time comes.

[gambitx777]

I think wall s still tradable this year, and I think he is still tradable next year. TBH
Dragic and T.Johnson = about 37 mill in salary and are both expiring after next year. walls salary jumps to 27 million. You don't think they heat would make that trade in the summer? or near the beginning of the season? I don't think it's any less likely that them making that trade a week ago before wall got hurt.

[dckingsfan]

Wolves get:
Otto Porter
Bradley Beal

Wizards get:
Andrew Wiggins
Gorgui Deng
Tyus Jones
2019 1st (unprotected)
2021 1st (unprotected)
2023 1st (unprotected)
2025 1st (Top 11 protected)

The Wolves go from a near hopeless squad languishing at the bottom of the Western Conference to a very strong foundation around Towns that has the ability to become a legitimate contender. Rose/Beal/Covington/Porter/Saric/Towns is a hell of a group to build around going forward and almost guarantees Towns will re-sign with the team.

Meanwhile, the Wizards already have no chance of putting a decent product on the floor until 2023 thanks to the Wall deal so they might as well flip their legit assets for more bad deals and some future assets that will help them when it actually matters. In addition, the Wizards who are currently $6MM over the tax could actually get under the tax with this move.

Seems like a huge win for both sides, no?

I think there is no chance to put a decent product on the floor 2024 with Wiggins and Deng. I would rather wait and move Porter/Beal for less assets and no overhead salary.

Dieng’s off the books in 2021. Wall and Wiggins both expire the same year in 2023. Basically the idea is that Wall’s going to hamstring the team until 2023 anyway so you might as well be ready to take a leap forward then with Okogie and the draft picks instead of fighting upstream at a game you can’t win and then having nothing to show for it when the time comes.

I don't think that trade is going to happen. I guess we are both dead in the water until 2024

[payitforward]

I think you have the numbers for Ball a bit wrong. The 21/22 year is just if he accepts his RFA 1 year option - which he likely won't do. He's really just effectively signed through 20/21 at $11,003,782. My crystal ball says he will not sign the $14,359,935 qualifying offer for 21/22. For 19/20 and 20/21 he'll be plenty cheap for a starting PG. Both Hart and Ball will be RFA's in 2021. Hart's certainly cheaper, but he should be cheaper.

Ahhh, yeah....

Whether Hart should be cheaper -- i.e. on the numbers -- or not, it's for sure that he's a bigger bargain for the next two years at $5.3m than Ball is at nearly $20m. All the same... these guys aren't 2 faces of a single coin, so no need to concentrate on them as alternatives one for the other.

(apropos of nothing: I just looked at PG numbers for this year, & what jumped out at me was how many good young PGs there are right now, rising up the charts....)

[gambitx777]

I feel like maybe the bulls would be interested in trading parker for wall ? they are tanking and they aren't going to get big name free agenting in any time soon, a wall lavine back court would be one of the best in the est and maybe top 5-10 in the league. They tanking this year anyway, do wall for parker straight up.

[pcbothwel]

I feel like maybe the bulls would be interested in trading parker for wall ? they are tanking and they aren't going to get big name free agenting in any time soon, a wall lavine back court would be one of the best in the est and maybe top 5-10 in the league. They tanking this year anyway, do wall for parker straight up.

Wall trade is completely off the table now until the summer.
- He doesnt help a contender
- We'd probably have to take back more than 20M when we are trying to cut salary
- His value is at its lowest

[NatP4]

I think wall s still tradable this year, and I think he is still tradable next year. TBH
Dragic and T.Johnson = about 37 mill in salary and are both expiring after next year. walls salary jumps to 27 million. You don't think they heat would make that trade in the summer? or near the beginning of the season? I don't think it's any less likely that them making that trade a week ago before wall got hurt.

No. Walls contract STARTS at 37 million. I’d much rather have 37 million in cap space next offseason if I’m the heat. I really don’t think many teams will be interested in Wall coming off one of the worst seasons of his career+all the injury concerns+ possible leadership question marks.

[iggymcfrack]

I think wall s still tradable this year, and I think he is still tradable next year. TBH
Dragic and T.Johnson = about 37 mill in salary and are both expiring after next year. walls salary jumps to 27 million. You don't think they heat would make that trade in the summer? or near the beginning of the season? I don't think it's any less likely that them making that trade a week ago before wall got hurt.

No. Walls contract STARTS at 37 million. I’d much rather have 37 million in cap space next offseason if I’m the heat. I really don’t think many teams will be interested in Wall coming off one of the worst seasons of his career+all the injury concerns+ possible leadership question marks.

Not a chance in hell that the Heat would be interested in that deal. That might literally be the worst trade of all-time. It's roughly equal in Year 1, and then you're taking on 3 years of Wall in his 30s post-injury for $130 million.

[gambitx777]

I think wall s still tradable this year, and I think he is still tradable next year. TBH
Dragic and T.Johnson = about 37 mill in salary and are both expiring after next year. walls salary jumps to 27 million. You don't think they heat would make that trade in the summer? or near the beginning of the season? I don't think it's any less likely that them making that trade a week ago before wall got hurt.

No. Walls contract STARTS at 37 million. I’d much rather have 37 million in cap space next offseason if I’m the heat. I really don’t think many teams will be interested in Wall coming off one of the worst seasons of his career+all the injury concerns+ possible leadership question marks.

Not a chance in hell that the Heat would be interested in that deal. That might literally be the worst trade of all-time. It's roughly equal in Year 1, and then you're taking on 3 years of Wall in his 30s post-injury for $130 million.

Thats the thing, the heat arn't going to miss dragic or johnson much at all. and if a healthy wall is a huge up grade.

Teams that don't have much chance to bring in a star any time soon are the teams that would want wall and the fact that his value is at an all time low is the chance to trade him when teams feel they are getting a decent discount. just thought at the very least

[Ruzious]

I think you have the numbers for Ball a bit wrong. The 21/22 year is just if he accepts his RFA 1 year option - which he likely won't do. He's really just effectively signed through 20/21 at $11,003,782. My crystal ball says he will not sign the $14,359,935 qualifying offer for 21/22. For 19/20 and 20/21 he'll be plenty cheap for a starting PG. Both Hart and Ball will be RFA's in 2021. Hart's certainly cheaper, but he should be cheaper.

Ahhh, yeah....

Whether Hart should be cheaper -- i.e. on the numbers -- or not, it's for sure that he's a bigger bargain for the next two years at $5.3m than Ball is at nearly $20m. All the same... these guys aren't 2 faces of a single coin, so no need to concentrate on them as alternatives one for the other.

(apropos of nothing: I just looked at PG numbers for this year, & what jumped out at me was how many good young PGs there are right now, rising up the charts....)

Yeah, it's a cyclical thing - there have been a lot of really good PG's coming out the last few drafts - a plethora if you will. And centers are finally coming back. Meanwhile, there seems to be a dearth of small forwards.

[Ruzious]

I feel like maybe the bulls would be interested in trading parker for wall ? they are tanking and they aren't going to get big name free agenting in any time soon, a wall lavine back court would be one of the best in the est and maybe top 5-10 in the league. They tanking this year anyway, do wall for parker straight up.

Wall trade is completely off the table now until the summer.
- He doesnt help a contender
- We'd probably have to take back more than 20M when we are trying to cut salary
- His value is at its lowest

I think we need to assume that Wall will remain a Wizard the next few seasons and figure on building around that. What it likely means is - the Wiz will likely be a 40 win type team for the next few seasons. And... EG keeps his job!!!!!

[pcbothwel]

I think you have the numbers for Ball a bit wrong. The 21/22 year is just if he accepts his RFA 1 year option - which he likely won't do. He's really just effectively signed through 20/21 at $11,003,782. My crystal ball says he will not sign the $14,359,935 qualifying offer for 21/22. For 19/20 and 20/21 he'll be plenty cheap for a starting PG. Both Hart and Ball will be RFA's in 2021. Hart's certainly cheaper, but he should be cheaper.

Ahhh, yeah....

Whether Hart should be cheaper -- i.e. on the numbers -- or not, it's for sure that he's a bigger bargain for the next two years at $5.3m than Ball is at nearly $20m. All the same... these guys aren't 2 faces of a single coin, so no need to concentrate on them as alternatives one for the other.

(apropos of nothing: I just looked at PG numbers for this year, & what jumped out at me was how many good young PGs there are right now, rising up the charts....)

Yeah, it's a cyclical thing - there have been a lot of really good PG's coming out the last few drafts - a plethora if you will. And centers are finally coming back. Meanwhile, there seems to be a dearth of small forwards.

Couldnt disagree more. The golden age of the PG position was the 2010's (This decade).
Look at the top 10-15 PG's.
Harden/CP3, Kyrie, Lowry Curry, Conley, Lillard, Kemba, Bledsoe, Jrue, Wall, Westbrook... Now Simmons and Fox.
All those guys except for the last two are 28-33... and Simmons isnt exactly a prototypical PG

Look at the last 5 years:
2018: Trae young, Sexton, SGA, Holiday - Young and Sexton look awful, SGA looks good but also more of a combo guard.
2017: Fultz, Ball, Fox, Ntilikina, DSJ - Supposed to be the resurgence of the PG position, but all except Fox look like bust or fringe starters at best
2016: Simmons, Dunn, Murray & Murray - Simmons is really good, but Dunn is a bust, and both Murray's look like average Starters
2015: Russell, Mudiay, Grant, Wright, Tyus, Rozier, Payne - I see all backups... at best
2014: Exum, Smart, Payton, Ennis, Napier - Mostly non NBA players and Smart

So that about 25 players in the 1st round, and only Simmons & Fox appear to have an AS appearance in the future, with everyone else being a backup or Non-NBA player.

[bsilver]

Those unprotected picks could be nice but not enough. Why give up an all-star and a good (but overpaid) player for overpaid big, trash Wiggins and expiring Jones (well, RFA)?

I'm naive but I want to believe Grunfeld & Brooks are gone after this season. This would be my plan:

1) Fire Grunfeld
2) Trade Ariza/Green/Morris for 2nds/cap relief and hopefully get under tax
3) Miss the playoffs and get a top-7 pick
4) Re-sign Satoransky and Bryant (and maybe Dekker) -> build around

Wall/Satoransky
Beal
Brown
Porter(/Dekker)
Bryant/Mahinmi(/Howard)
+ 2019 1st

Nobody's trading for Wall right now. Porter's value is very low because he's also struggled with injuries and hasn't played well. Beal is valuable but no need to trade him unless they get a crazy good offer.

Edit: Also fire Brooks after the season because he's awful coach. Get someone who actually has a system and holds players responsible. Pray Wall recovers like Conley did.

If things are not brighter next year then blow it up.

I think this will be the path going forward, everything except the fire EG part. Ariza and Morris clearly will not be on the roster next year. There is no reason whatsoever to retain them. They will be moved for luxtax relief and/or picks. It's merely a matter of finding the best deal. Sato, Geen and Dekker are conceivably cheap enough to be retained next year so trading them is optional depending on the return. Bryant and Brown are keepers.

Otto and Wall won't be traded while their values are depressed. Beal will only be traded if he quietly requests a trade.

Don't we have to trade Porter or Beal? (Wall being untradeable). With Beal/Wall/Porter/Brown/Mahinmi/Howard we're about 117M in salaries with luxury cap at 123M (this year). Our 1st round pick will be fairly high too with a substantial salary.

Bryant will definitely cost a lot to sign (8M, 10M?) and we have to try. Sato will want a raise, but if I were him I'd ask the Wizards not to match given the disrespect from Brooks. Then, there's filling out all the other roster spots.