Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread

[Illmatic12]

Ernie?

Hmm idk , maybe I am Ernie?

OR .. I could be Daryl Morey (Rockets) , Masai Ujiri (Raptors), Tim Connelly (Nuggets), Jon Horst (Bucks), or any of the other successful franchises today who built a contender without bottoming out their roster.

"The Process" , my friend, is a fool's errand . And even moreso now that the league changed the draft lottery rules specifically to dis-incentivize any other team from trying it in the future.

It may be a fools errand but who is the bigger fool? One that ignores reality and plows forward ahead with no real plan other than to remain modestly competitive or the one that says the current situation is untenable financially and we must jump start a "process" to completely rebuild?

Who said not tanking means you can't have a plan?
Obviously I want the team to move forward with a plan, but bottoming out the roster and spending years playing the lottery odds is not the path I'd take.

The first order of business in 4 weeks is starting the GM search and bringing in some competent voices in the front office.

Second order of business is securing a longterm commitment from Bradley Beal if possible. IF Beal's camp isn't willing to provide that, then you can explore other options.

[Dat2U]

Hmm idk , maybe I am Ernie?

OR .. I could be Daryl Morey (Rockets) , Masai Ujiri (Raptors), Tim Connelly (Nuggets), Jon Horst (Bucks), or any of the other successful franchises today who built a contender without bottoming out their roster.

"The Process" , my friend, is a fool's errand . And even moreso now that the league changed the draft lottery rules specifically to dis-incentivize any other team from trying it in the future.

It may be a fools errand but who is the bigger fool? One that ignores reality and plows forward ahead with no real plan other than to remain modestly competitive or the one that says the current situation is untenable financially and we must jump start a "process" to completely rebuild?

Who said not tanking means you can't have a plan?
Obviously I want the team to move forward with a plan, but bottoming out the roster and spending years playing the lottery odds is not the path I'd take.

The first order of business in 4 weeks is starting the GM search and bringing in some competent voices in the front office.

Second order of business is securing a longterm commitment from Bradley Beal if possible. IF Beal's camp isn't willing to provide that, then you can explore other options.

You already have the long term commitment for Beal. As long as we give him the Wall treatment if he qualifies for the supermax.

I don't see how we can even compete with 25% of cap wrapped up in a guy that will likely be a negative player for us going forward. Even more so if we have Beal taking another 20-25% of the cap. It's simply not feasible.

[wco81]

I don't think it's too surprising that Embid fell to #3.

The hype around Wiggins and Parker was off the charts. Obviously they haven't lived up to it though.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Ernie?

Hmm idk , maybe I am Ernie?

OR .. I could be Daryl Morey (Rockets) , Masai Ujiri (Raptors), Tim Connelly (Nuggets), Jon Horst (Bucks), or any of the other successful franchises today who built a contender without bottoming out their roster.

"The Process" , my friend, is a fool's errand . And even moreso now that the league changed the draft lottery rules specifically to dis-incentivize any other team from trying it in the future.

Yes, looking around the league, it seems that the best teams are the ones that managed to find an All-NBA caliber player late in the draft. Their trips to the high lottery were typically brief, and often came up empty, or merely got them role players. It was that one awesome #15 pick that really turned them around.

- The Bucks drafted Giannis 15th. Their two trips to the lottery got them Parker and Maker, who didn't work out.
- The Jazz drafted Gobert 27th and Mitchell 13th. Their trip to the high lottery got them Exum.
- Toronto got Siakam 27th. Their recent trips to the lottery got them Valanciunas, Ross and Poeltl.
- Golden State got Klay 11th and Green 35th. Their trips to the high lottery got than Barnes and Udoh. (Well, Steph was a #7 pick, but that was 10 years ago.)
- Denver picked Jokic 41st. Their trips to the lottery got them McDermott, Mudiay, and Murray.

I can't really think of many teams that became great by a multi-year period of being at the top of the lottery. Teams like Chicago, Phoenix, New York and Orlando do not have very promising futures. Sacramento is emerging, but they've been in the lottery for over a decade.

Philly did it, but I question if they'll hold it together. They've blown a lot of picks and squandered a lot of assets along the way to build a 52-win team that may lose one or two star free agents this summer.

Boston built with high draft picks, but most of those picks were acquired via trade, not by tanking.

OKC did it. But they switched owners and cities, allowing a new management and new culture to replace the culture that tanked their way into those high draft picks in the first place.

Right, our best bet is the Boston model, if we can trade Beal for multiple picks...

Say we can deal Beal for 2 first rounders with maybe San Antonio, for example, or Boston ironically, and maybe come out of the draft with something like SF Hunter/Little, SG Keldon Johnson, PF Bol/Doumbouya/Jontay Porter ... retain Sato, Bryant, Dekker, Brown Jr.

I like PGs Carson Edwards and Ky Bowman who we could buy a 2nd rounder to pick up (and may even go undrafted), and I like Jerian Grant as a low cost FA target.

Maybe something like this... But it seems to me, after moving out Otto & Oubre, dealing Beal and rebooting seems to make sense.

[nate33]

Right, our best bet is the Boston model, if we can trade Beal for multiple picks...

Say we can deal Beal for 2 first rounders with maybe San Antonio, for example, or Boston ironically, and maybe come out of the draft with something like Hunter/Little, Keldon Johnson, Bol/Doumbouya ... retain Sato, Bryant, Dekker, Brown Jr.

I like PGs Carson Edwards and Ky Bowman who we could buy a 2nd rounder to pick up (and may even go undrafted), and I like Jerian Grant as a low cost FA target.

Maybe something like this... But it seems to me, after moving out Otto & Oubre, dealing Beal and rebooting seems to make sense.

If we can trade Beal for multiple high picks, I'd be interested. I wouldn't trade him for 2 late seconds from San Antonio. That would be horrible.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Right, our best bet is the Boston model, if we can trade Beal for multiple picks...

Say we can deal Beal for 2 first rounders with maybe San Antonio, for example, or Boston ironically, and maybe come out of the draft with something like Hunter/Little, Keldon Johnson, Bol/Doumbouya ... retain Sato, Bryant, Dekker, Brown Jr.

I like PGs Carson Edwards and Ky Bowman who we could buy a 2nd rounder to pick up (and may even go undrafted), and I like Jerian Grant as a low cost FA target.

Maybe something like this... But it seems to me, after moving out Otto & Oubre, dealing Beal and rebooting seems to make sense.

If we can trade Beal for multiple high picks, I'd be interested. I wouldn't trade him for 2 late seconds from San Antonio. That would be horrible.

Spurs have 20 & 29, Celtics have 14, 19, 21, Hawks have 5, 6, Nets have 17, 27.


Do you think we could get the Celtics 3 picks for Beal, or the 5 & 6 from Atlanta ?


Man if we can get the Celts picks and come out of the draft with Hunter, Keldon Johnson, Bol Bol, Gafford sign me up for that !!!!

[nate33]

Right, our best bet is the Boston model, if we can trade Beal for multiple picks...

Say we can deal Beal for 2 first rounders with maybe San Antonio, for example, or Boston ironically, and maybe come out of the draft with something like Hunter/Little, Keldon Johnson, Bol/Doumbouya ... retain Sato, Bryant, Dekker, Brown Jr.

I like PGs Carson Edwards and Ky Bowman who we could buy a 2nd rounder to pick up (and may even go undrafted), and I like Jerian Grant as a low cost FA target.

Maybe something like this... But it seems to me, after moving out Otto & Oubre, dealing Beal and rebooting seems to make sense.

If we can trade Beal for multiple high picks, I'd be interested. I wouldn't trade him for 2 late seconds from San Antonio. That would be horrible.

Spurs have 20 & 29, Celtics have 14, 19, 21, Hawks have 5, 6, Nets have 17, 27.


Do you think we could get the Celtics 3 picks for Beal, or the 5 & 6 from Atlanta ?

Even those packages are not fair value for a 25-year-old All-NBA player.

Don't make the mistake of falling in love with prospects. By most accounts, this is a fairly weak draft full of mostly role players. I know you think that you know which players will succeed, but EVERYBODY thinks that and they usually end up wrong. Most players picked outside of the lottery do not end up as starting caliber players. Giving up Beal for a few late round gambles is a bad, bad idea.

I do like the idea of getting multiple late picks, but I'd do so by trading down from our high pick, not by trading Beal. If you trade Beal, you want at least 2 high lotto picks plus a little more. And preferably those are future lotto picks because this draft is weak outside of the top 2 or 3.

[dckingsfan]

Well, I don't think we are in the same position as some of the other teams mentioned above (due to cap space constraints). I think we need to:

1) Hire a new GM
2) Let him outline a 3 or 4 year process
3) Follow the process

And the model might be more like Sacramento? Fox & Bagley?

Yes, we should hire a new GM, let him outline a plan (or process) and then stick to it. I think most here would agree with that. Question is whether that process should include tanking and/or blowing up the current team and rebuilding, which is essentially what Philly did.

As for following the Sac model, as Nate points out, they've been in the lottery--and out of the playoffs--for more than a decade. Do we want that?

Absolutely... Divac was promoted to GM on August 31, 2015. It took a year before they would let him follow his plan. They will be in the playoffs and in fine position next year.

[payitforward]

A stat rollup is a helluva lot better than picking and choosing stats that are convenient for your cause and ignoring stats that aren't convenient - which is what you've been doing in this conversation...

I didn't do that. Come on, Ruz: you asked a reasonable question, I gave you what I think was a reasonable answer. Certainly I tried. I'm not picking a fight with you; don't pick one with me.

I believe I took into account all these guys' numbers. & why would I have "a cause?" See above where I agree that Diallo & Melton aren't good right now (based on all their numbers). They may never be particularly good. But, it still seems better to have a young player with potential on the end of your bench rather than someone who has no future.

Agreed, but I think it's so obvious that these guys haven't played well. It's fine to just say that and that you think there's reason to believe they'll improve.

I have no idea whether they'll improve! Where this started was with Ernie's 2018 draft; which was the usual conceited slacker mess. What I said (all I said) was that picking the 17 year old from a distant land wasn't great -- Diallo would have been a better pick.

Do the right thing enough times, & some of them work out. Do like Ernie & you rebuild until it's time to tank; in between there's one or two slightly above mediocre years.

[Ruzious]

I didn't do that. Come on, Ruz: you asked a reasonable question, I gave you what I think was a reasonable answer. Certainly I tried. I'm not picking a fight with you; don't pick one with me.

I believe I took into account all these guys' numbers. & why would I have "a cause?" See above where I agree that Diallo & Melton aren't good right now (based on all their numbers). They may never be particularly good. But, it still seems better to have a young player with potential on the end of your bench rather than someone who has no future.

Agreed, but I think it's so obvious that these guys haven't played well. It's fine to just say that and that you think there's reason to believe they'll improve.

I have no idea whether they'll improve! Where this started was with Ernie's 2018 draft; which was the usual conceited slacker mess. What I said (all I said) was that picking the 17 year old from a distant land wasn't great -- Diallo would have been a better pick.

Do the right thing enough times, & some of them work out. Do like Ernie & you rebuild until it's time to tank; in between there's one or two slightly above mediocre years.

If you have no idea, then there is no point in talking about them.

[Illmatic12]

It may be a fools errand but who is the bigger fool? One that ignores reality and plows forward ahead with no real plan other than to remain modestly competitive or the one that says the current situation is untenable financially and we must jump start a "process" to completely rebuild?

Who said not tanking means you can't have a plan?
Obviously I want the team to move forward with a plan, but bottoming out the roster and spending years playing the lottery odds is not the path I'd take.

The first order of business in 4 weeks is starting the GM search and bringing in some competent voices in the front office.

Second order of business is securing a longterm commitment from Bradley Beal if possible. IF Beal's camp isn't willing to provide that, then you can explore other options.

You already have the long term commitment for Beal. As long as we give him the Wall treatment if he qualifies for the supermax.

I don't see how we can even compete with 25% of cap wrapped up in a guy that will likely be a negative player for us going forward. Even more so if we have Beal taking another 20-25% of the cap. It's simply not feasible.

Idk if we can say it’s likely that Wall will be a negative player. Relative to his contract yes, but I think he can at least be a competent starter. He will most certainly lose some of his top speed, but should be less of a “statue” off-ball and a better defender than the last 2 years playing with the shards of bone in his foot. In any case, no one can say for sure how Wall will produce when he gets back.

As far as competing, I guess you would have to define what that means to you. If you want to get into the salary cap and how they’d make it work with two supermaxes, that’s a wide ranging discussion. A few points to note: First of all the contract is actually 35% of the cap, but of course they can go over the cap to retain their own players and also use exceptions to fill out the roster. Secondly, Beal’s hypothetical supermax wouldn’t kick in until 2021-22 so there’s only two years of overlap with Wall’s deal and then his $40M comes off the books . That’s assuming we don’t get of Wall’s money a year or two earlier.

[nate33]

New Orleans picked up Christian Wood.

Apparently, his entire cap hit now transfers to New Orleans. That takes $1.5M off of Milwaukee's cap and puts it all onto New Orleans'. Given that that was the case, I can understand why the Wizards didn't go after Wood. It would have put them well over the luxtax, meaning Ted loses out on the tax distribution.

Read on Twitter

It's possible that New Orleans elects not to retain him this summer, which would put him back on the free agency market.

[nate33]

Who said not tanking means you can't have a plan?
Obviously I want the team to move forward with a plan, but bottoming out the roster and spending years playing the lottery odds is not the path I'd take.

The first order of business in 4 weeks is starting the GM search and bringing in some competent voices in the front office.

Second order of business is securing a longterm commitment from Bradley Beal if possible. IF Beal's camp isn't willing to provide that, then you can explore other options.

You already have the long term commitment for Beal. As long as we give him the Wall treatment if he qualifies for the supermax.

I don't see how we can even compete with 25% of cap wrapped up in a guy that will likely be a negative player for us going forward. Even more so if we have Beal taking another 20-25% of the cap. It's simply not feasible.

Idk if we can say it’s likely that Wall will be a negative player. Relative to his contract yes, but I think he can at least be a competent starter. He will most certainly lose some of his top speed, but should be less of a “statue” off-ball and a better defender than the last 2 years playing with the shards of bone in his foot. In any case, no one can say for sure how Wall will produce when he gets back.

As far as competing, I guess you would have to define what that means to you. If you want to get into the salary cap and how they’d make it work with two supermaxes, that’s a wide ranging discussion. A few points to note: First of all the contract is actually 35% of the cap, but of course they can go over the cap to retain their own players and also use exceptions to fill out the roster. Secondly, Beal’s hypothetical supermax wouldn’t kick in until 2021-22 so there’s only two years of overlap with Wall’s deal and then his $40M comes off the books . That’s assuming we don’t get of Wall’s money a year or two earlier.

Yeah. People overstate how bad this would be. Basically, it's the exact same situation we are in right now, only instead of Beal getting a 35% supermax, he is getting merely the 25% max and we are inexplicably paying the totally useless Mahinmi 10% of our cap.

[Illmatic12]

You already have the long term commitment for Beal. As long as we give him the Wall treatment if he qualifies for the supermax.

I don't see how we can even compete with 25% of cap wrapped up in a guy that will likely be a negative player for us going forward. Even more so if we have Beal taking another 20-25% of the cap. It's simply not feasible.

Idk if we can say it’s likely that Wall will be a negative player. Relative to his contract yes, but I think he can at least be a competent starter. He will most certainly lose some of his top speed, but should be less of a “statue” off-ball and a better defender than the last 2 years playing with the shards of bone in his foot. In any case, no one can say for sure how Wall will produce when he gets back.

As far as competing, I guess you would have to define what that means to you. If you want to get into the salary cap and how they’d make it work with two supermaxes, that’s a wide ranging discussion. A few points to note: First of all the contract is actually 35% of the cap, but of course they can go over the cap to retain their own players and also use exceptions to fill out the roster. Secondly, Beal’s hypothetical supermax wouldn’t kick in until 2021-22 so there’s only two years of overlap with Wall’s deal and then his $40M comes off the books . That’s assuming we don’t get of Wall’s money a year or two earlier.

Yeah. People overstate how bad this would be. Basically, it's the exact same situation we are in right now, only instead of Beal getting a 35% supermax, he is getting merely the 25% max and we are inexplicably paying the totally useless Mahinmi 10% of our cap.

And if John comes back healthy and is able to contribute as an above average starting PG, there’s still the possibility of trading him.

I know everyone’s saying “it would take 3 unprotected first round picks blah blah” but maybe by 2021 it takes 1 first to move Wall’s last two years in exchange for some bad expirings. At that point you do what you have to do, and then use the cap space to build around Beal who would have 3-4 more seasons under contract.

The key point is that Brad Beal is only 25yo and projects to be an All-NBA level player for the next 5-6 years. If you can lock him up through 2025, you do it and figure out the rest later.

[closg00]

New Orleans picked up Christian Wood.

Apparently, his entire cap hit now transfers to New Orleans. That takes $1.5M off of Milwaukee's cap and puts it all onto New Orleans'. Given that that was the case, I can understand why the Wizards didn't go after Wood. It would have put them well over the luxtax, meaning Ted loses out on the tax distribution.

Read on Twitter

It's possible that New Orleans elects not to retain him this summer, which would put him back on the free agency market.

They waived Jason Smith to make room for Wood, HILARIOUS KARMA

[prime1time]

The problem with trading Beal is that this is a star driven league. You can draft all the solid players you want, but until we get stars to come to DC, it won't work. So here's my question. If we can get a lottery pick with Beal, why trade him? If he demands a trade fine. But we might as well keep for next year and proceed right into he lottery again. Trading Beal for for a 2 (likely) non-lottery picks is silly. With all the lottery picks that this team has had over the years, only two have become all-stars. Just seems illogical to trade him right now imo.

[gambitx777]

I really hope we don't toss away beal unless he forces the team to. IMO you hold on to him and work out a way to rid your self of wall.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The problem with trading Beal is that this is a star driven league. You can draft all the solid players you want, but until we get stars to come to DC, it won't work. So here's my question. If we can get a lottery pick with Beal, why trade him? If he demands a trade fine. But we might as well keep for next year and proceed right into he lottery again. Trading Beal for for a 2 (likely) non-lottery picks is silly. With all the lottery picks that this team has had over the years, only two have become all-stars. Just seems illogical to trade him right now imo.

The question is why keep him? We can't possibly assemble a legit team around him with Wall's contract. It's why we dealt Porter, Morris, and Oubre. The reason to deal Beal now is because now is when he has value. Now is when he is still only 25, coming off an All Star season, and still has 2 more years locked up.

I think it we can get the Celtics picks, even though they are all mid to late 1st , we should do it. Someone posted earlier the teams that make a move are the ones that strike gold on a later pick, and having 4 picks in the 1st round increases our odds of doing just that.

Get rid of Brooks, bring in a new coaching staff and GM.

We go young, 4 rookies, keep guys like Brown Jr, Sato, Bryant, Dekker... And end up in the lottery next season with a top 3 pick in 2020. Hope Wall comes back to a level we can move him. Get Mahinmi off the books. Then this team is on track to make a move 2020 and beyond.

I mean we can keep Beal as our star... But people aren't going to go to Cap One to see Beal and a team that sucks, and they aren't going to challenge for anything, maybe an 8th seed. What's the point of that??

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The problem with trading Beal is that this is a star driven league. You can draft all the solid players you want, but until we get stars to come to DC, it won't work. So here's my question. If we can get a lottery pick with Beal, why trade him? If he demands a trade fine. But we might as well keep for next year and proceed right into he lottery again. Trading Beal for for a 2 (likely) non-lottery picks is silly. With all the lottery picks that this team has had over the years, only two have become all-stars. Just seems illogical to trade him right now imo.

The question is why keep him? We can't possibly assemble a legit team around him with Wall's contract. It's why we dealt Porter, Morris, and Oubre. The reason to deal Beal now is because now is when he has value. Now is when he is still only 25, coming off an All Star season, and still has 2 more years locked up.

I think it we can get the Celtics picks, even though they are all mid to late 1st , we should do it. Someone posted earlier the teams that make a move are the ones that strike gold on a later pick, and having 4 picks in the 1st round increases our odds of doing just that.

Get rid of Brooks, bring in a new coaching staff and GM.

We go young, 4 rookies, keep guys like Brown Jr, Sato, Bryant, Dekker... And end up in the lottery next season with a top 3 pick in 2020. Hope Wall comes back to a level we can move him. Get Mahinmi off the books. Then this team is on track to make a move 2020 and beyond.

I mean we can keep Beal as our star... But people aren't going to go to Cap One to see Beal and a team that sucks, and they aren't going to challenge for anything, maybe an 8th seed. What's the point of that??

But you know, I don't think you have to worry, because I expect just the opposite. My expectation is they will keep Grunfeld and Brooks, they will keep Beal. They will hope Wall returns next season at some point. They will keep Sato to hold the spot until he does. They will keep Ariza, Green, Howard. They will lose Bryant, Parker, Portis to better offers. They will still have Mahinmi. They will draft a player none of us are expecting or heard of, someone with "upside and versatility" . We will squeak into the playoffs and out of the lottery next season as an 8 and get swept by the 1 seed. And do it all again in a never ending recurring cycle of mediocrity that this team has been in since the 70's.

[prime1time]

The problem with trading Beal is that this is a star driven league. You can draft all the solid players you want, but until we get stars to come to DC, it won't work. So here's my question. If we can get a lottery pick with Beal, why trade him? If he demands a trade fine. But we might as well keep for next year and proceed right into he lottery again. Trading Beal for for a 2 (likely) non-lottery picks is silly. With all the lottery picks that this team has had over the years, only two have become all-stars. Just seems illogical to trade him right now imo.

The question is why keep him? We can't possibly assemble a legit team around him with Wall's contract. It's why we dealt Porter, Morris, and Oubre. The reason to deal Beal now is because now is when he has value. Now is when he is still only 25, coming off an All Star season, and still has 2 more years locked up.

I think it we can get the Celtics picks, even though they are all mid to late 1st , we should do it. Someone posted earlier the teams that make a move are the ones that strike gold on a later pick, and having 4 picks in the 1st round increases our odds of doing just that.

Get rid of Brooks, bring in a new coaching staff and GM.

We go young, 4 rookies, keep guys like Brown Jr, Sato, Bryant, Dekker... And end up in the lottery next season with a top 3 pick in 2020. Hope Wall comes back to a level we can move him. Get Mahinmi off the books. Then this team is on track to make a move 2020 and beyond.

I mean we can keep Beal as our star... But people aren't going to go to Cap One to see Beal and a team that sucks, and they aren't going to challenge for anything, maybe an 8th seed. What's the point of that??

Well you keep him because right now we have Beal and we are headed to the lottery. The choice isn't between keeping Beal and getting 8th seed in the playoffs. But rather, trading Beal and entering a likely 5-7 year rebuild, or keeping Beal for a season or two and seeing how things play out. The NBA is a star driven league. 2 extra late round first round picks mean nothing to me. Just like Phoenix has been bad for god knows how long, and Philly was bad until they got Joel, we'll be bad until we find a star.

If we can keep Beal and find ourselves in the 5-10 range, then I'm much more for that, than trotting out 4 rookies with Brown Jr, Sato, Bryant and Dekker. That squad sounds unwatchable. And the chance that any of those guys will have anywhere near the potential to significantly impact our teams odds are so minuscule that it's silly to talk about. Keep Beal, and if it looks like he wants out trade him. If we are too good trade him. If we can package Beal and some of our assets for a player with legitimate potential in the draft - like Zion - do it. But to trade Beal for 2 first rounds picks and filler is needlessly sentencing our fanbase for 5-7 years of suffering. Beal is 25 and still getting better. Let's see if we can do a soft rebuild with him leading our young guys. And if that fails, commit to a full rebuild.