Official Trade Thread XXI (12/13/12 - 02/06/13)

[MJG]

If we trade Beal for Gay, that's it for me. I'm already hanging by a thread as a fan this season, and a swap like that would be taking a flame thrower to that thread. I think there's a 0% chance of such a trade actually happening, but I'm just putting that out there, just in case.

[gambitx777]

Has to be the grizz just wanting beal, rick from pawn starz once said "is that what their getting or is that what their asking". and they are in no ****ing way getting Beal for a lack luster Gay. the kid is playing with some rookie of the year type stuff right now. No way we give him for gay. I would just tell them to **** off if they really were brazen enough to ask for Beal.
Crawford, Ariza, Jan and some second round picks. Take it or leave it IMO.

if we trade Beal for Gay, i will not suport this team until E.G. and every one that supported such a deal is fired and never let in the town again! I can not watch this man flush the team i love down the drain any longer !

[Jajwanda]

What's the straight price on Crawford?

[TGW]

They turned down Beal and filler for Harden...can't see them agree to trade that same package for an overpaid lackluster player like Rudy Gay...

[nuposse04]

What's the straight price on Crawford?

Guessing you're a lakers fan...there simply isn't anything on Laker's roster that would interest me...maybe in a three team trade if you guys ever find a suitor for Gasol.

[dangermouse]

They turned down Beal and filler for Harden...can't see them agree to trade that same package for an overpaid lackluster player like Rudy Gay...

God i hope so. I just shelled out for a god damn jersey.

[queridiculo]

Oh lord, I can't wait to see what epic blunder Grunfail comes up with this time.

[Deivy202]

Beala been improving but if it ment our first pick can stay , isnt there sg's in college who are better than beal that can play SG?. Im sorry i gainrd to like beal but he can be replaced with our top 5 pick.

[Deivy202]

They turned down Beal and filler for Harden...can't see them agree to trade that same package for an overpaid lackluster player like Rudy Gay...

They can the fans here are underrating Gay have any of u seen him play? Stats dont mean everything btw .

I hope we get him and i think we will.

[Illuminaire]

They turned down Beal and filler for Harden...can't see them agree to trade that same package for an overpaid lackluster player like Rudy Gay...

They can the fans here are underrating Gay have any of u seen him play? Stats dont mean everything btw .

I hope we get him and i think we will.

Yeah. I've watched a ton of Rudy's games. He really looks good out there... except he doesn't pass well, doesn't grab many rebounds, and doesn't make many shots. That's evident from watching him play; the stats neatly back that up and let us compare him to other players, whereupon we can clearly see that Gay is... average.

I feel like anyone here claiming Gay is something special needs to go watch Moneyball.

[montestewart]

They turned down Beal and filler for Harden...can't see them agree to trade that same package for an overpaid lackluster player like Rudy Gay...

They can the fans here are underrating Gay have any of u seen him play? Stats dont mean everything btw .

I hope we get him and i think we will.

Have you ever seen him play? I mean like a whole game, and then looked at his stats and realized he looks like a better player than he actually is. What does, "Stats don't mean everything" mean? Are you implying (as opposed to actually articulating) an argument that Gay is significantly better than his stats show him to be? Go for it, I'm all ears (except for the rest of my body).

Gay gets paid nearly $16.5 million a year! He's the 20th best paid player in the league! He gets paid more than Rose, Love, or Rondo! Does he deserve all that lettuce? NO! At best, he's probably no better than Caron Butler's best, at a far higher price, and he's likely entering his decline soon as his salary continues to go up. He's overpaid, and Memphis knows it, and they want to dump him, and the Wizards are the team that other teams think of when they want to dump overpaid veterans.

Since EG has capped the team out for the foreseeable future, getting Gay (it's really like Rep. Weiner headlines with the endless puns) won't really hurt in that department, but then the Wizards ceiling is probably Brooklyn-lite. If EG's foolish enough to lose Wall, Beal, or high draft picks in the process, the remaining team will probably never be any better than the current team, and will quickly enter complete rebuilding again.

Terd and Ernie turn everything into sour milk.

[DaRealHibachi]

^^^
My point exactly, prime Butler (about the same age as Gay is now) was a 20/7ish/5 player shooting 46% paid about 8/9 mill; Gay never put up those numbers, yet he is paid almost twice as much as CB in his prime... Think about that for a second...

Numbers mean EVERYTHING (in context ofcourse), saying it doesn't makes your (Deivy202 ) thinking no better than Grunfeld's (which in turn explains why our team is the way it is)

[McGully Culkin]

Turning down the #3 for Harden, but giving up Beal for Gay is a Ernie move. I'm getting myself in the right frame of mind to prepare for the inevitable....

For example, the Griz have entertained the Washington Wizards' offer for Gay. The crux of that exchange would have the Griz receiving rookie shooting guard Bradley Beal in a larger package.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/20 ... artner=RSS

[Nivek]

I'm glad to have read through this thread so that I could learn how overrated efficiency is and how stats don't matter. What matters, of course, is how a player looks when he's on the court. This is why Rick Fox was such a great player for so many years. Michael Jordan was The Greatest, but not because he scored a tremendous amount of points on great efficiency -- it was because he had dreamy good looks.

Now Rudy Gay is quite a handsome man. He's at least an 8 on the 1-to-10 scale, and that's WAY above average. So, he must also be a way above average player. I mean, if you lined up all the SFs in the league, he's gotta be top 5 in how he looks when he's on the floor. Some of that might be those nice Memphis uniforms (it's important to evaluate a player in context). But I think how he looks on the floor will translate to Wizards uniforms. In fact, Gay looks sooooo good on the court, he could almost certainly be a top performer at PF -- not just SF. In other words, he doesn't just look good for a SF -- he looks good for a basketball player.

So, I'm now completely won over to the notion of trading for Gay. Wizards should definitely swap Okafor and Ariza for him -- they don't look nearly as good when they're on the floor. And they've never really looked good in Wizards uniforms. They'd look better in Memphis, and Gay would still look just fine in Washington. The Wizards needn't worry about that extra year (at $19 million) for Gay. When you have a chance to acquire a player who looks that good on the floor -- gotta jump at it.

[deneem4]

The whole plan have been beal and wall....if they trade beal they might as well trade nene for a top 1st rd and role player(bobcats) and crawford and webster for a 1st rd and role player....draft noel mclemore and shabazz or bennet....

[tontoz]

I'm glad to have read through this thread so that I could learn how overrated efficiency is and how stats don't matter. What matters, of course, is how a player looks when he's on the court. This is why Rick Fox was such a great player for so many years. Michael Jordan was The Greatest, but not because he scored a tremendous amount of points on great efficiency -- it was because he had dreamy good looks.

Now Rudy Gay is quite a handsome man. He's at least an 8 on the 1-to-10 scale, and that's WAY above average. So, he must also be a way above average player. I mean, if you lined up all the SFs in the league, he's gotta be top 5 in how he looks when he's on the floor. Some of that might be those nice Memphis uniforms (it's important to evaluate a player in context). But I think how he looks on the floor will translate to Wizards uniforms. In fact, Gay looks sooooo good on the court, he could almost certainly be a top performer at PF -- not just SF. In other words, he doesn't just look good for a SF -- he looks good for a basketball player.

So, I'm now completely won over to the notion of trading for Gay. Wizards should definitely swap Okafor and Ariza for him -- they don't look nearly as good when they're on the floor. And they've never really looked good in Wizards uniforms. They'd look better in Memphis, and Gay would still look just fine in Washington. The Wizards needn't worry about that extra year (at $19 million) for Gay. When you have a chance to acquire a player who looks that good on the floor -- gotta jump at it.

Strawman Weekly gives you top marks for this post.

There is no escaping the fact that efficiency cannot be considered in a vacuum. The shot clock is the defense's 6th man and has to be considered. If the shot clock was 34 seconds rather than 24 seconds then efficiency would go up in importance. There would be fewer possessions and fewer instances of forced shots at the end of the clock.

A long, contested 2 is always a bad shot early in the clock. At the end of the clock it might be a good one (even if only converted at 40%) when the alternatives are no shot, a blocked shot, a turnover or a desperation heave.

I wouldn't trade for Gay either at this point but your arguments have been uncharacteristically weak. If you want to say Gay is badly overpaid for his production then fine. I don't think you will get much argument there.

[popper]

Trading for Gay would be a huge mistake. We need to concentrate on moving Ariza packaged with Booker or Vesely for a useful piece (preferably an expiring and a pick or a young player with decent upside). At some point before the deadline a team in contention is going to need a solid and proven SF. Add a young inexpensive PF to the deal and it's reasonable to assume that we should get something of value in return.

I'm open to an Okafor trade as well with the same philosophy applying. Get something of value plus an expiring.

With a smart move or two and a lottery pick we should be able to strengthen the long term prospects for a successful rebuild.

And of course the usual caveat - EG MUST BE FIRED

[Nivek]

There is no escaping the fact that efficiency cannot be considered in a vacuum. The shot clock is the defense's 6th man and has to be considered. If the shot clock was 34 seconds rather than 24 seconds then efficiency would go up in importance. There would be fewer possessions and fewer instances of forced shots at the end of the clock.

In college basketball there's a 35-second shot clock. Colleges teams regularly have to force shots at the end of the 35-second clock (unless it's Grinnell playing).

Efficiency doesn't change in importance based on the length of the shot clock -- efficiency is what decides who wins and who loses. Efficiency is how many points a team scores per possession. If Team A is more efficient on its possessions than Team B -- Team A wins. There are very rare instances where a team could win a squeaker with slightly worse efficiency by getting an extra possession or two because of end-of-quarter stuff. But, the more efficient team almost always wins.

That's not to say that an inefficient player has no value. Gay's offensive production, for example, is actually a net plus for his team even though it comes with below average efficiency. His "marginal efficiency" is above the break-even point for an individual.

A long, contested 2 is always a bad shot early in the clock. At the end of the clock it might be a good one (even if only converted at 40%) when the alternatives are no shot, a blocked shot, a turnover or a desperation heave.

Agreed. Nearly any shot late in the shot clock is a better proposition than a shot clock violation or a turnover. The shot at least has some chance of going in.

I wouldn't trade for Gay either at this point but your arguments have been uncharacteristically weak. If you want to say Gay is badly overpaid for his production then fine. I don't think you will get much argument there.

Okay, now you're being funny. This is EXACTLY what I've been saying, and I've been getting tons of argument. Nate's been making this point -- and getting argument. Lemme be real clear then: RUDY GAY IS BADLY OVERPAID FOR HIS PRODUCTION.

I'm glad we agree the Wizards shouldn't trade for him.

Just for heck of it, here's a look at Rudy Gay's full career vs. the league average while he's been in the league:

Code: Select all

STAT    GAY     AVG
FGM     7.6     6.1
FGA     16.8    13.4
3FM     1.1     1.1
3FA     3.3     3.0
FTM     3.4     3.1
FTA     4.5     4.0
TSA     18.8    15.2
REB     6.3     6.9
AST     2.2     3.5
STL     1.5     1.2
BLK     1.0     0.8
TOV     2.5     2.4
PF      2.8     3.5
PTS     19.8    16.4
2PT%    .479    .485
3PT%    .344    .358
FT%     .772    .759
EFG     .487    .497
TS%     .527    .539
ORTG    104.0   106.7


Stats are per 40 minutes. TSA = true shooting attempts. Leaving aside those pesky efficiency stats that seem to get folks so riled up, he's been below average in rebounding and assists; a bit above average in blocks and steals.

[DCZards]

Nivek, your (handsome man) response was well below your usual standards. No need to mock or belittle those who disagree with using stats and/or efficiency as the sole determinant of a player's value, ability or potential.

And, yes, Gay is grossly overpaid. Otherwise, I'd be looking to trade for him.

[tontoz]

Okay, now you're being funny. This is EXACTLY what I've been saying, and I've been getting tons of argument. Nate's been making this point -- and getting argument. Lemme be real clear then: RUDY GAY IS BADLY OVERPAID FOR HIS PRODUCTION.

Feel free to point out where someone said Gay wasn't overpaid for his production. I must have missed it. Certainly i have not made that argument.

In college basketball there's a 35-second shot clock. Colleges teams regularly have to force shots at the end of the 35-second clock

Are you seriously trying to compare college ball to the NBA? Wow

Do you not think there would be far more instances in college of forced shots at the end of the clock with a 24 second clock? If that is what you believe i have some Lehman bonds i can give you a great price on.

Efficiency doesn't change in importance based on the length of the shot clock -- efficiency is what decides who wins and who loses. Efficiency is how many points a team scores per possession. If Team A is more efficient on its possessions than Team B -- Team A wins. There are very rare instances where a team could win a squeaker with slightly worse efficiency by getting an extra possession or two because of end-of-quarter stuff. But, the more efficient team almost always wins.

Efficiency would absolutely be dependent on the shot clock. The longer the clock the fewer shots that will be put up to try to beat the clock. A large share of those shots fall on the guy who is best able to get his shot off 1 on 1. The longer the shot clock the higher efficiency would be.

Gay can get his jumper off even when someone is right in his face. That is valuable at the end of the clock. The longer the shot clock the less valuable this skill would be. Low usage, high efficiency players would become more valuable with a longer clock.