Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

[Ruzious]

2020-2021 Offensive Real Plus Minus ranking for small forwards in the NBA: http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/5

1. Lebron (for the 2nd straight season)
2. Davis Bertans (for the 2nd straight season)
3. Kawhi
4. Jimmy Butler
5. Middleton
6. Tatum
7. Ingram

[tontoz]

He should be getting at least 30 minutes per game, especially with Rui out.

[Frichuela]

He should be getting at least 30 minutes per game, especially with Rui out.

Agreed. In particular, if paired with Gafford who should be also getting more minutes!

[Dat2U]

2020-2021 Offensive Real Plus Minus ranking for small forwards in the NBA: http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/5

1. Lebron (for the 2nd straight season)
2. Davis Bertans (for the 2nd straight season)
3. Kawhi
4. Jimmy Butler
5. Middleton
6. Tatum
7. Ingram

His 'gravity' at the PF spot is undeniable. When he's cooking, our offense cooks. That's why I was ok with resigning him. The good outweighs the bad when he's not horribly out of shape lol.

[NatP4]

He should be getting at least 30 minutes per game, especially with Rui out.

Agreed. In particular, if paired with Gafford who should be also getting more minutes!

Gotta love Scott Brooks.

[nate33]

2020-2021 Offensive Real Plus Minus ranking for small forwards in the NBA: http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/5

1. Lebron (for the 2nd straight season)
2. Davis Bertans (for the 2nd straight season)
3. Kawhi
4. Jimmy Butler
5. Middleton
6. Tatum
7. Ingram

His 'gravity' at the PF spot is undeniable. When he's cooking, our offense cooks. That's why I was ok with resigning him. The good outweighs the bad when he's not horribly out of shape lol.

You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Bertans is a terrible offensive rebounder so he basically sucks as a basketball player.

[payitforward]

2020-2021 Offensive Real Plus Minus ranking for small forwards in the NBA: http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/5

1. Lebron (for the 2nd straight season)
2. Davis Bertans (for the 2nd straight season)
3. Kawhi
4. Jimmy Butler
5. Middleton
6. Tatum
7. Ingram

His 'gravity' at the PF spot is undeniable. When he's cooking, our offense cooks. That's why I was ok with resigning him. The good outweighs the bad when he's not horribly out of shape lol.

You obviously have no idea what you are talking about. Bertans is a terrible offensive rebounder so he basically sucks as a basketball player.

Whatever are you talking about, nate? Davis is a completely offensive rebounder.

Given his horribly slow start, Davis will not put up overall numbers on the season to compare with last year or his even better 2018-19 season. But, he's obviously playing really well right now -- his 3pt. % over the last month must be insanely high!

As to his ORPM ranking as a small forward, only 2 small problems:

1. "ORPM ranking" -- Feel free to explain how ORPM is calculated. Maybe if you knew, you wouldn't put as much faith in it? Actually, why do you put any faith in it at all?

2. "...as a small forward" -- Davis doesn't play the small forward position. He plays PF. I know I know... the two positions are interchangeable (otherwise we can't explain away the shortcomings of certain players), but they didn't include any PFs in coming up with this ranking, they included SFs only. So... the ranking doesn't include guys listed at that position -- which, from to your POV, it ought to do. Right?

Who cares? Davis is playing really well. &, weirdly, we are winning game after game!

Is he overpaid? Of course he is!! To quote nate himself w/in the last few weeks, he's now signed to a "market-value" contract, which means he isn't delivering above market value. In a capped league, anyone not delivering over market value return is being over-paid -- that's true by definition, unless your goal is to be an average team.

But, so what?

[Ruzious]

If someone's really going to whine about whether Bertans is listed as a 3 or a 4, he'd be 3rd among 4's - behind 2 nobodies named Giannis and Durant. He's 4th among all forwards.

[payitforward]

Ruz -- how is ORPM calculated? Please explain.

[payitforward]

No, actually... don't bother. It's pointless.

I'm glad Davis is rated so highly by... whatever. It's nice. & he had a really good game against OKC. In fact, he's had a lot of good games lately. We all hope that continues -- &, really, why not? Why should it not continue? I think it will. Problem solved.

[payitforward]

Davis has had an outstanding April. No, a killer April.

In 7 games, he's averaging 24.6 points per 40 minutes at a TS% of .792. That is unbelievably elite scoring. The rest of his numbers aren't good overall, but... so what?

Edit: overall, even with the meh rest of his numbers, Davis's overall production is 30+% higher than an average NBA 4.

[9 and 20]

He has been a lot better - after he sat out the end of last year, got paid, and came into the season fat. Still super-annoyed by that.

Bertans playing like this is not a problem (obviously). The Wizards bigger issue, I think, is that they are paying their backcourt $100 million and Bertans on top of that. Since you can't or won't move Beal and Westbrook, trading Bertans is the next best candidate. It might be the case that you can't get someone better than Bertans for his $16 million, in which case, we just run it back next year with the same team plus a draft pick and the MLE and a new coach and hope for the best. 'Hope is a strategy,' if I recall correctly, was #11 and just missed the cut on Ted's ten-point plan to turn the Wizards into a contender. #12 and #13 both involved urinal cakes - different colors and going with pine fresh over lemon scented.

[doclinkin]

Ruz -- how is ORPM calculated? Please explain.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/10740818/introducing-real-plus-minus

Drawing on advanced statistical modeling techniques (and the analytical wizardry of RPM developer Jeremias Engelmann, formerly of the Phoenix Suns), the metric isolates the unique plus-minus impact of each NBA player by adjusting for the effects of each teammate and opposing player.

The RPM model sifts through more than 230,000 possessions each NBA season to tease apart the "real" plus-minus effects attributable to each player, employing techniques similar to those used by scientific researchers when they need to model the effects of numerous variables at the same time.

RPM estimates how many points each player adds or subtracts, on average, to his team's net scoring margin for each 100 possessions played. The RPM model also yields separate ratings for the player's impact on both ends of the court: offensive RPM (ORPM) and defensive RPM (DRPM).

with clarification elsewhere:

https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/

In APM, a statistical technique called linear regression estimates each player’s rating. RAPM employs a modification of this called ridge regression. This method of estimating ratings has the effect of pulling values toward some pre-determined expectation known as a prior. RAPM uses a rating of 0 as its prior–in other words, it’s skeptical of a player who rates as strongly above or below average, unless it has a lot of data to back that up. Using ridge regression reduces the impact of the small sample size problems I described above. Values that stray too far from the prior, especially without lots of data to back them up, will be pulled back into (hopefully) a more reasonable estimate. ... While randomness can still have an effect, the damage is less than it is for APM.
...
Plus-minus measures how well a player’s team performs when he plays, but doesn’t adjust for context.
Adjusted plus-minus (APM) accounts for the quality of a player’s teammates and opponents, but struggles when players get most of their minutes together and is susceptible so sample size issues.
Regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) smooths out APM’s more extreme results, but tends to be a little too conservative.
...
Position is relevant when using Real Plus-Minus to evaluate a player.

Unsurprisingly, different positions tend to be better at different things. Point guards tend to be more focused on offense, while center are more likely to be gifted defenders. This should have an effect on how we value different players.

Let’s consider the following question: Does Roy Hibbert or Paul George contribute more to Indiana’s league-leading defense? DRPM gives Hibbert a rating of 3.52 while George is at 2.61. If you stopped your analysis there, you’d conclude that Hibbert is the key to the Pacers’ stinginess.

However, when you adjust for position, this isn’t the case. An average center has a DRPM of 1.78, while small forwards average a rating of 0.04. Hibbert exceeds his positional average by just 1.74 points per 100, while George does so by an impressive 3.48 points. When we consider position, you can make a compelling argument that George provides more defensive value than Hibbert.

[Ruzious]

He has been a lot better - after he sat out the end of last year, got paid, and came into the season fat. Still super-annoyed by that.

Bertans playing like this is not a problem (obviously). The Wizards bigger issue, I think, is that they are paying their backcourt $100 million and Bertans on top of that. Since you can't or won't move Beal and Westbrook, trading Bertans is the next best candidate. It might be the case that you can't get someone better than Bertans for his $16 million, in which case, we just run it back next year with the same team plus a draft pick and the MLE and a new coach and hope for the best. 'Hope is a strategy,' if I recall correctly, was #11 and just missed the cut on Ted's ten-point plan to turn the Wizards into a contender. #12 and #13 both involved urinal cakes - different colors and going with pine fresh over lemon scented.

But ya don't want to get worse by trading Bertans - which would probably be the case, and they likely feel they have a 2 year window to win with Westbrook. There are lots of ways to improve - young guys like Rui and Deni improving, making smart trades like the Gafford trade, staying healthy with Bryant, using the draft wisely....

[queridiculo]

There's a lot not to like about Bertans game, but you're fooling yourself if you think that there's a glut of available players out there that have as much of a net positive impact for a team at $16 million per year.

[nate33]

Since February 3rd, basically the team's first opportunity to practice following the Covid hiatus, Bertans is averaging 17.8 points per 36 minutes on a TS% of .703. Just unbelievably insane numbers over a 28-game stretch. The only problem is that he has been playing just 24 minutes a game instead of the 28-30 I was hoping for, due to minutes restrictions from Covid and his calf injury.

[payitforward]

Ok, for starters, let's not argue. It's pointless.

Secondly, I've already referenced both these articles elsewhere on the board. Neither of them explains how ORPM is calculated. Or just plain RPM either. They just use positive language to praise it. Thus...

Drawing on advanced statistical modeling techniques (and the analytical wizardry of RPM developer Jeremias Engelmann, formerly of the Phoenix Suns), the metric isolates the unique plus-minus impact of each NBA player by adjusting for the effects of each teammate and opposing player....

...says what it claims to do; it's not an explanation. &...

The RPM model sifts through more than 230,000 possessions each NBA season to tease apart the "real" plus-minus effects attributable to each player, employing techniques similar to those used by scientific researchers when they need to model the effects of numerous variables at the same time.

is more patting oneself on the back: "sifts through," "tease apart," "techniques similar to those used by scientific researchers" -- these are phrases that praise rather than describe.

RPM estimates how many points each player adds or subtracts, on average, to his team's net scoring margin for each 100 possessions played. The RPM model also yields separate ratings for the player's impact on both ends of the court: offensive RPM (ORPM) and defensive RPM (DRPM).

This simply re-states what it is claimed that RPM can do.

In APM, a statistical technique called linear regression estimates each player’s rating. RAPM employs a modification of this called ridge regression. This method of estimating ratings has the effect of pulling values toward some pre-determined expectation known as a prior....

Yup, ridge regression takes the data & makes it say what I think it ought to say. Congratulations.

... RAPM uses a rating of 0 as its prior–in other words, it’s skeptical of a player who rates as strongly above or below average, unless it has a lot of data to back that up. Using ridge regression reduces the impact of the small sample size problems I described above. Values that stray too far from the prior, especially without lots of data to back them up, will be pulled back into (hopefully) a more reasonable estimate. ... While randomness can still have an effect, the damage is less than it is for APM...

Doc, have you taken the time to grok what the above sentences are actually saying? What they are saying is, "we already know how good players are, & if the actual data makes them look different from that... we just change the data."

....Position is relevant when using Real Plus-Minus to evaluate a player.

Unsurprisingly, different positions tend to be better at different things. Point guards tend to be more focused on offense, while center are more likely to be gifted defenders. This should have an effect on how we value different players.

This is perfectly sensible: whatever methodology one used to estimate how effective a player is it would have to account for position. Almost all of them do. Those that don't -- PER, for example -- are best used to compare players at the same position.

I'm not interested in continuing discussion of ORPM or any other mystery meat.

There are plenty of subjects about which you know something & I don't, doc. Similarly, there are subjects about which I know something & you don't. Neither kind of subject presents a fruitful area for discussion.

[tontoz]

In spite of his slow start his +/- is + 7.4.

http://www.82games.com/2021/20WAS14.HTM#onoff

[Ruzious]

Mystery meat, lol. Pif, as you may know, RPM was created by former Suns consultant Steve Ilardi and Mavs Senior Analyst Jeremias Engelmann and has since been adjusted by the ESPN team of advanced sports metrics analysts. It's probably a proprietary formula too long and illegal to post on this site. Like any stat, it's a tool to use. Not knowing exactly how it's computed doesn't mean it makes any sense to ignore it. Based on the people involved, I have no reason not to believe it's useful. And based on the players ranked near the top, it passes the smell test. If you have a reason to believe it's not useful, please explain.

[tontoz]

Having looked into this before RPM isn't a normal stat. Typical stats measure actual production for the season in question. RPM is a predictive stat, using past performance to predict future results.

So when you look at this years RPM some of the data used to calculate it is actually coming from last season.