What Should the Wizards Should Do with the 5th Pick?

[queridiculo]

Blair is way, way, better even at defensive rebounding than Jordan Hill.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/DeJ ... 049/stats/

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jordan-Hill-1222/

Blair is a poor one legged jumper and short wingspan defender. Sorry, he just won't cut it in the pros.

[WizarDynasty]

Defensively we really need a shot blocker with lateral quickness at the p/f spot. Our quickest bigman is blatche and we know blatche is a poor defensive rebounder. We are going to get murdered with blair defending the pick and roll and that's pretty much the bread and butter play in the nba.

[nate33]

Maybe. You were certainly right about Millsap, Sessions and others.

But then there's Mo Almond, Hendrix, Fazekas and Novak who haven't gotten it done for whatever reason. Bottom line is, none of us know who is going to get hurt, or have family or substance problems, or lose their desire once they get paid, etc. It's anyone's best guess at this point.

I wanted to bring this up but didn't want to be the one to get CCJ fired up. Glad you stepped up and took a hit for the team, fishercob.

CCJ, fishercob is right. You have good instincts but you are not infallible. Blair is man without a position because he is a center on offense (no perimeter shot whatsoever) and a PF on defense (lacks the length to guard legit centers). He's a bench player until he develops that jump shot. I think he'll be an effective bench player (which we could certainly use), but there's a reason why he isn't rated very high in the mocks.

I'd be happy with drafting Blair, but only in a tradedown scenario, and only if we traded Jamison, Blatche or McGee for a quality guard so there was room for Blair in the lineup.

Now, if Blair has developed a solid 17-foot jumper in the offseason, I'll quickly change my mind. Blair plus a jumpshot is a quality starter in this league.

[WizarDynasty]

Hey guys knick fan here. I wanted to ask you guys a question: Do you believe that your management would consider the following offer or would they hang up immediately?

Knicks trade Mobley(80% of his contract is covered by insurance meaning that any owner taking him saves 7mill. right away)+ 8th pick

for Mik James OR Etan Thomas and 5th pick


I know that "financial" trades are mostly unpopular among fans--but I just wanted to get an honest opinion if you think your GM would at least consider such a trade?

Yes, but.

Their first goal is going to be to add a rotation player via trade. If for whatever reason they can't swing it, something like this would make sense and they could draft Blair or Henderson at 8.

Thanks for the input----I'm not even sure the Knicks are looking to move up at all because we have no information on who they want(other then Curry)---I was just a little bored and wanted to see if it''s possible to move up or not etc.

Let me ask you guys another thing: Isn't Jordan Hill for you guys the only real logical chioce at 5?I mean you are well set at every position except PF the way I see it:

PG: Arenas
SG:Butler
SF:Jamison
PF:Thomas?
C:Haywood

Or are Butler/Jamison better suited for the 4 in which case you'd want a SG? Depending on whether Jamsion plays more 3 or 4 I really believe that PF is your biggest hole isn't it?No offense but the two ukrainian guys aren't really good and Etan Thomas is always injured----isn't it time you guys take a chance at a talented,hardworking guy at 5th instead of setting for another perimeter oriented player?I know Kwame might have traumatized you but the way I see it , Jordan Hill is gonna be AT LEAST a 12point/10rebounds guy with good defense and nice athleticism running the floor and fittin in with the rest of the guys.

It is true that wizards are better with Jamison at the three than jamison at the 4. Jamison is pretty much a jumpshooter like Caron and if we have defensive rebounding shot blocking machine of hill behind Jamison, then it allows us put more pressure on the perimeter. Hill's rebounding motor is >>>>>greater than Blatche's motor and one of the big problems we have with Blatche is that he has a low energy level. Haywood, Hill, Jamison,---with Arenas and (young or butler) as our back court is an improvement over what we had in our last playoff season. Jamison is far better rebounder and three point shooter than caron and with arenas on the floor handling the playmaking duties, we won't need Butler to force some many shots and commit as many turnovers.
We can't secure defensive rebounds with Blatche logging heavy minutes at p/f as blatche didn't exceed ten rebounds in many of the cases where he started at p/f. Blatche just isn't a high energy player. Very skilled but doesn't have a big motor.

[fishercob]

nate, CCJ knows I love him either way. And the point is that of the players listed, most people expected zero of them to be impact players in the league. The fact that CCJ called two of them correctly, even if the others didn't pan out is still impressive.

I gave up trying to project NBA success of prospects when Tyrus Thomas didn't turn into Shawn Marion.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hill is not as good as Blair. Not even close. I'll hate Hill as the pick.

THAT SAID, knowing Grunfeld, that's who he'll pick. Hill.

When that happens the Wizards have to trade Blatche/Pecherov or McGee. If they do this and pick up a guy like Sefolosha; or if they can jettison Stevenson and get somebody like Garcia; then I'll be almost okay with the pick.

Add an aggressive froncourt player and also a defensive wing and MAYBE they'll be okay.

I'll be bitching about them not drafting Blair for years to come, regardless.
Whatever move the Wizards make, I think it won't be the best they could do.

Maybe. You were certainly right about Millsap, Sessions and others.

But then there's Mo Almond, Hendrix, Fazekas and Novak who haven't gotten it done for whatever reason. Bottom line is, none of us know who is going to get hurt, or have family or substance problems, or lose their desire once they get paid, etc. It's anyone's best guess at this point.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... kst01.html

Novak's careerTS is over 60%. He's a career 41.9% three point shooter. He had a PER of 17 for the Rockets and 13 for the lowly Clips. Novak's PER is higher than Nick Young's, BTW. I admit all he can do is shoot the three, but that one trick is going to net him a nice contract. He had 7 threes in one game. I predict a team like San Antonio will make good use of him.

That Novak's in the league at all says I was right, fisher.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... kni01.html

As for Fazekas, I read even doclinkin say that he had good stats while in the NBA. Nick got Avery'd out of Dallas. Just like Marquis Daniels and arguably, Devin Harris. His PER with the Clips was 19.8 (guys have made the all star game with less). 11.9 rebounds per 36 minutes is tremendous. Fazekas wisely left being a 12th man to going to Europe for minutes and bigger check. Honestly, I expect him back in the NBA in a role like that of Scola in a few years. Fazekas is a great rebounder.

I don't consider Fazekas a miss at all.

All Almond has done is manage a couple 50 point D-League games. No matter what he accomplishes, he's not as good as I thought he would be.

Hendrix is a very prolific rebounder in the D-League. How bad is 14.6 points, 11.5 rebounds, 57.5% FG over 31 MPG? I see the time it took Glen Davis to contribute and see players like Brandon Bass or Leon Powe or Carl Landry have success and believe Hendrix would have been a fine addition to the Wizards. I can see him giving this team a completely different type contribution.

fisher, I agree with your bottom line that none of us knows what will happen in the future.

I just think I know a bad selection when I see one. McGee was surprisingly athletic to me and much better than I thought he'd be. That said, he was a defensive liability on a 19-win team. He was a good pick at 18 because of what he should become.

However, I still maintain a guy like Hendrix on this team might have contributed more in the short run. DX has this interesting link to Call Up Candidates. Has Hendrix at 8 behind Livingston, White, Douby, Nichols, Sims, Dontell Jefferson, and Byars. Note that Byars is the only 22 year-old on that list. He's going to be in the league for a while, wait and see.

[closg00]

Biggest problem with Blair is transition defense. Once you start running, blair at 300 lbs can't keep up and he can't finish above the rim. He is going to be an awesome rebounder because he sucks up so much space but doesn't have the quickness to guard powerforward out on the perimeter. I guess we need to see what his lane agility scores are to see if he is quick enough to guard out on the perimeter. Asking Blair to guard a guy like Rashard Lewis at the p/f slot would be a nightmare which forces us to play him at center. 6'6 p/f w/o shoes playing center..is a challenge in he playoff no matter how you look at it. Big Baby Measured at 6'8 without shoes but had short arms. Obviously if Blair has unbelieve lateral quickness for a 300 pounder or 280 whatever he weighs, then you might be able to take advantage but the measurements are not out. I remember from the NCAA, teams exploited him by playing at a fast pace and forcing him to sprint up and down the court like the NBA does with SHAQ. After two or three sprints, SHAQ and Blair...300 pounders are dead tired..and start trotting up the court not able to sprint for finishes like a McGee or a Amare..or Jordan Hill.

Agree, that's why I give the edge to Johnson over Blair and Hill. I'd love to have Blair on our side paired with BTH to keep Howard from dominating the paint in the playoffs, but that makes Blair a one-trick pony in the NBA. I think that Johnson could steal minutes/make expendable McGuire, and spell AJ. In-effect, more bang for the buck.

Johnson is a real stat-stuffer, getting plenty of blocks, steals and rebounds

and on offense..

Johnson’s ability to face-up and attack his man off the dribble makes him a terrific mismatch threat on the perimeter, and watching him utilize his outstanding footwork and pivot moves in the post, it’s hard not to come away impressed with his scoring and overall basketball instincts. He has great hands and outstanding touch with either hand around the basket, sometimes flicking up pretty floaters around the rim, and looks very comfortable at times operating with his back to the basket as well.

Ernie is looking for and will take a SG in the 2nd round. Johnson + 2nd round SG is the way to go, we'll have to take our chances on Crit next season.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Maybe. You were certainly right about Millsap, Sessions and others.

But then there's Mo Almond, Hendrix, Fazekas and Novak who haven't gotten it done for whatever reason. Bottom line is, none of us know who is going to get hurt, or have family or substance problems, or lose their desire once they get paid, etc. It's anyone's best guess at this point.

I wanted to bring this up but didn't want to be the one to get CCJ fired up. Glad you stepped up and took a hit for the team, fishercob.

CCJ, fishercob is right. You have good instincts but you are not infallible. Blair is man without a position because he is a center on offense (no perimeter shot whatsoever) and a PF on defense (lacks the length to guard legit centers). He's a bench player until he develops that jump shot. I think he'll be an effective bench player (which we could certainly use), but there's a reason why he isn't rated very high in the mocks.

I'd be happy with drafting Blair, but only in a tradedown scenario, and only if we traded Jamison, Blatche or McGee for a quality guard so there was room for Blair in the lineup.

Now, if Blair has developed a solid 17-foot jumper in the offseason, I'll quickly change my mind. Blair plus a jumpshot is a quality starter in this league.

I'm not infallible? Not even when I've been God-like delusional? Damn.

I actually agree with you and fisher, nate, that he's a role player to begin with and a guy who'll have some positional problems in the NBA. Where I disagree mightily is that I believe you underestimate how good a role player he will be. Points per possession and points per minute indicate Blair can already score very efficiently at the NCAA level, even without a jumpshot. Speaking of instincts, I believe Blair instinctively knows how to get his shot off and that won't change at the next level.

I believe the jumpshot will come easily to Blair.

nate, you know I respect your opinion a whole lot. I just feel very strongly this time about numbers that seem to be can't miss numbers.

Might Blair suffer from the Love/Diogu effect (and you did slam me on Ike) of not being able to defend at the next level? YES (I just don't think so. Pitt was too good defensively with him anchoring the defense.)

But the reason that I love Blair for this team is that the Wizards already have Haywood at C. He's a defender that has covered for Jamison for years. Blair won't be as bad a defender as Antawn just because of his personality and his physicality. Also, the Wizards have both McGee and Blatche who are GOOD weakside shotbloickers.

Blair is so perfect for what this team needs that I'm astounded folks DON'T think he's worth the #5.

[yungal07]

CCJ you cannot compare Millsapp straight up to Martin with statistics. It's not a fair comparison because the Sloan's offense is very power forward friendly. Have you noticed that almost every power forward in his system excels? Not that guys like Malone, AK47, Booz, and Sapp aren't talented, but the system is centered around that point guard/power forward pick-n-roll. When you have super talented point guards like a Stock or Williams now, that power forward is going to get a ton of opportunities to score. So IMO I think Millsapp (and Boozer) is somewhat a product of the system. I don't think they are as good as their numbers suggest.

[dfreshbfresh]

does anybody know if the measurables come out today?

[Ji]

Jordan Hill is getting alot of love from what I am reading. His upside is way higher than Blair and it seems that from what i read, he is a very hard worker.

We all loved Jordan Hill in January....why not now?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Biggest problem with Blair is transition defense. Once you start running, blair at 300 lbs can't keep up and he can't finish above the rim. He is going to be an awesome rebounder because he sucks up so much space but doesn't have the quickness to guard powerforward out on the perimeter. I guess we need to see what his lane agility scores are to see if he is quick enough to guard out on the perimeter. Asking Blair to guard a guy like Rashard Lewis at the p/f slot would be a nightmare which forces us to play him at center. 6'6 p/f w/o shoes playing center..is a challenge in he playoff no matter how you look at it. Big Baby Measured at 6'8 without shoes but had short arms. Obviously if Blair has unbelieve lateral quickness for a 300 pounder or 280 whatever he weighs, then you might be able to take advantage but the measurements are not out. I remember from the NCAA, teams exploited him by playing at a fast pace and forcing him to sprint up and down the court like the NBA does with SHAQ. After two or three sprints, SHAQ and Blair...300 pounders are dead tired..and start trotting up the court not able to sprint for finishes like a McGee or a Amare..or Jordan Hill.

Agree, that's why I give the edge to Johnson over Blair and Hill. I'd love to have Blair on our side paired with BTH to keep Howard from dominating the paint in the playoffs, but that makes Blair a one-trick pony in the NBA. I think that Johnson could steal minutes/make expendable McGuire, and spell AJ. In-effect, more bang for the buck.

This is where I differ from most. I think there's always room for one-trick ponies. They're called role players.

Rodman rebounded. Bowen defends. Finley comes in to shoot threes. So did Kerr and Paxson before him. Rondo on last year's Celtics was a playmaker. Haslem rebounded. Fisher hit big shots. All on championship teams.

I think a team like the Wizards has a lot of scorers, but that Haywood and McGuire are the only defensively speciallsts. They've got tall guys who can rebound in McGee, Blatche, and Pecherov. Darius makes everybody better on offense and he's not above doing chippy things that help a team. He's unfortunately a porous rebounder.

What the team lacks are a defender that can pressure PGs and a banger the makes hustle plays.

I think Blair and Flynn woould be a real good draft for the Wizards because it would supply needed role players.

[barelyawake]

Actually, I'm close to saying blow-up the team. And by that I mean PUSH HARD NOW, and if it doesn't work, fall flat on our faces. Which means I think we should bring in at least two new vets (trading away youth for old). And I'd target Bosh; Charlotte (Diaw, Bell, Okafor); San An (Bowen, Gin, Kurt) and Detroit (Wallace, Rip, Prince). I think we have enough to get both Wallace (s&t) and Prince -- that is assuming Wallace is ok with the history of both our team and our new coach (and those are big, big ifs). Sign and trade of Wallace would be cheap (probably only take Young and Etan). Then, get Prince as well (for some combo of youth and/or our pick). I'm certain that Harden, Blatche and Young would get us those two -- if it came to that.

You end up with (roughly):

Arenas/Marbury/Crit
Caron/Dom/Arenas
Prince/AJ/Caron
Wallace/AJ/McGee
Haywood/McGee/Wallace

I only start Wallace for rotational purposes. There are a million different line-ups you can run with that team. AJ would get starter mins, but his defense would be hidden by Prince, Dom, Wallace and Haywood. Yeah, it's expensive as hell -- and if Abe REALLY wants a championship, it'll cost money. Yeah, it's trading young for old. And I'll certainly hear, "Wallace is washed up." Or even, "Blatche is better than Wallace in his current form" -- which disregards the refs; vet leadership; knowledge of how to win playing defense in a championship game; etc. I'll simply say, we better start looking at the All-Defensive team charts and targeting those people -- we should have been all along.

I want to push now (I mean REALLY push, not halfway), and get to rebuilding if we fail. And I'll tell you, with every season it becomes more obvious that the modern NBA is about the refs knowing the names of the players. The above line-up has names and it works on paper. If Prince and LeBron go for a ball, the refs will actually have to think about who to call the foul on (where as Blatche would get the foul, period).

Ask me tomorrow, I'll change my mind. Currently, I'm adamant that we need names on our team. If it were anyone but Howard, LeBron would have gotten a foul (not a jumpball). Blatche would not have gotten the jumpball call (even if it were the right one). Sorry to say, that's how I feel about the NBA lately.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hill is not as good as Blair. Not even close. I'll hate Hill as the pick.

THAT SAID, knowing Grunfeld, that's who he'll pick. Hill.

When that happens the Wizards have to trade Blatche/Pecherov or McGee. If they do this and pick up a guy like Sefolosha; or if they can jettison Stevenson and get somebody like Garcia; then I'll be almost okay with the pick.

Add an aggressive froncourt player and also a defensive wing and MAYBE they'll be okay.

I'll be bitching about them not drafting Blair for years to come, regardless.

Whatever move the Wizards make, I think it won't be the best they could do.

CCJ, Blair had two ACLs tears in high school. He's overweight. He's never had to shoot a midrange jumper in his life. How is he going to play next to Haywood? Any PF we'd draft has to be able to play next to Haywood and Java. Jordan Hill can be that because he's shown to hit the outside jumper. He's isn't fat at all. He has no injury history. He played in a diverse offensive set (I'm sorry, but Pitt's "offensive" sets make Mike Brown look like a genious).

Oh, and regarding Nick Young, Morris Almond is out of the league. Belinelli isn't even a rotation player. Young was the best defender on the team last year. He had to score considering he had no PG out there. Imagine him playing with Arenas in a real offensive system before you are so quick to judge.

I've got a real good memory and I'm sure I'll be talking about Belinelli again, mhd.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Blair is way, way, better even at defensive rebounding than Jordan Hill.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/DeJ ... 049/stats/

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jordan-Hill-1222/

Blair is a poor one legged jumper and short wingspan defender. Sorry, he just won't cut it in the pros.

Blair's not bow-legged, either.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

For all my ranting, I'll be happy with just about anybody the Wizards draft ....

except Jordan Hill.

[LyricalRico]

Blair is so perfect for what this team needs that I'm astounded folks DON'T think he's worth the #5.

You've been extremely persuasive on what Blair could bring to this team. Still, I cannot in good conscience use a top 5 pick on the guy. Nobody (not even you, I would imagine) would have used a lottery pick on Jason Maxiell, let alone a top 5 pick. Blair is cut from the exact same cloth and has similar value IMO.

Sorry but just because a guy is "perfect' for what the Wiz need doesn't mean we need to overpay to get him. Battier would be perfect for what the Wiz need, but I'm not trading Arenas for him. See what I mean? We need to find a way to get him without needlessly wasting assets. That's the point I think everybody is making.

[closg00]

For all my ranting, I'll be happy with just about anybody the Wizards draft ....

except Jordan Hill.

We've come full-circle, I agree %100

ps. You were right about Novak, he's doing fine. In-fact he got his career-high vs the Wiz

Belinelli??? He just hasn't gotten the opportunity yet. If we had drafted him, perhaps we wouldn't be talking about drafting Harden. The only reason I haven't thrown-in the towel on Young is that I don't under-estimate the damage our "development" program has had on Young & Pech.

[fishercob]

So I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal like this on draft night:

Wiz trade: Etan, Deshawn, #5
Pistons trade: Rip, #15

It doesn't solve our longterm tax issues, but provides a huge talent upgrade and still leaves us with pieces to unload songaila if we want to.

Just for the heck of it, and because I love the player comparison function on B-R, I ran a comparison of Ray Allen through two seasons ago (before he was traded to Boston) and Rip through this year.

CHeck it out here:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/ ... i?id=tdbEK

They're very similar, though Ray's PER is well higher, due almost all to the 3pt prowess. The difference seems to be "fairly" represented in the compensation though, as Ray made $16M last season and Rip's due $11M next yr. Rip's also probably the better defender.

Rip's not as good as Allen, but I don't think we'd need him to be. I think he'd make a huge difference here.

[fishercob]

CCJ and closg00, Novak, Fazekas, Bellinelli, Rendrix, etc., may all have good reasons for not being more productive -- stupid coaches, bad player development, etc.

But the fact is that they're not more productive, whereas Millsap -- playing behind an all-star -- is. Sessions, playing behind Mo Williams, did show enough last year for the Bucks to ship Mo o ut of town.

It's up to the player do what they have to make sure they stick. Everything else is just an excuse.