Arenas for Vince or dump Arenas for cap space?

[LyricalRico]

^ Finally! Now this thread has the proper amount of name calling and angst. I didn't think we'd get there but KZ never disappoints. Thanks, KZ!

[no D in Hibachi]

Then there has to be some sort of happy medium in considering Arenas' past as justification for him staying on the team. You bring up another incident as though this is the worst case scenario and then 'capable' or 25/6/2 as what appears to be the best case scenario. If we bring the gun incident into this than we have to look at the best possible scenario where he comes back and is a near 30ppg scorer and an All-NBA player. You can't discount one side and magnify another. Is it realistic he'll be an All-NBA player? Probably not, but it is also not realistic for another incident, therefore, as reasonable fans we can't assume the worst case scenario just like we don't assume the best case scenario.

[fishercob]

So here's what I'm hearing from the "trade Gil now" crowd.

1) We won't be any good with him, so might as well trade him now
2) We'll be too good with him to get a good enough pick

Obviously, both of those things cannot be true. Let's say the Wiz suck next year and win 25-35 games. (I've predicted this myself. I think we have a pretty "shallow" roster, especially up front, and we're really going to struggle to stop people and defensive rebound). If that's the case, then GREAT. We've got a bunch of lotto balls and Wall has experience playing with another high-usage talent (which he'll need b/c at some point if we're a very good team, he'll be playing with other All-STars). Mission accomplished!

But let's say we overachieve to the point of mediocrity. We win 41 games, squeak into the playoffs and are picking in the mid-high teens or so. While the pick suffers, Gil's value skyrockets. We'll be able to get actual assets -- expirings and picks or young players in return -- to aid in the re-build. Not to mention the fact that an unexpectedly succesful season will be a positive externality for Blatche and McGee's value too.

In either scenario, we're better off for the long term. Next summer we'd have:

Wiz suck = Wall, high lotto pick, Gil, Blatche, Javale, Hinrich, bunch of cap room
Wiz over-achieve = Wall, Blatche, McGee, mid-first, Gil (or expirings, and a couple first rounders), bunch of cap room

Both of those are better than only the $15M of extra cap room we'd have next summer from a Vince-Gil deal.

[willbcocks]

Can we bring up his past as a guy who was miserable on defense and never had elite +/- or position PER differential stats and whose teams never won squat when we think about that best case scenario?

If Gilbert was DWade or Kobe, or even a 28 year old Paul Pierce, I would get these arguments. But Gil was never a 2 way player...

[KevinFCheng]

^ Yes to fishercob. Not to mention the valuable playoff experience that would provide Wall in his rookie year.

[willbcocks]

I won't speak for 'the crowd,' but what you're hearing from me is that:

1) we ain't making the playoffs next year with or without Gil so next year we'd get a slightly better pick without him (not a huge difference and not the main part of my argument)
2) our growth and win potential in the future will be much higher if we dump him before the end of this contract year, for various reasons that I have expressed ad nauseum

Honestly, as long as he doesnt get hurt, which is a pretty big if, or royally suck (which I'm not concerned about), I'm indifferent as to whether we trade Gil now, at the trade deadline, or next summer before he eats into our 2011-2012 cap room. I don't think his value will grow, even if he plays well, beyond a vince carter type expiring deal, so if we can net that now, I say go for it. I don't know if we can. And I don't want to trade assets to dump him now. But given the chance to trade him for carter now, which is the premise for this thread, i am 100% for it.

[barelyawake]

The point would be there is no path to a championship by keeping Gil. That's why you can't provide even one path that gets us there. By losing Arenas, we have options with both cap and high draft picks. There are no options with keeping Gil -- at least, none that have been provided. Top draft picks doesn't mean we have to keep the talent either. It means we can trade them, but they have the clout of being top picks so they will get significant pieces in trade. It gives us more assets. With more cap, we can take on greater salaries and thus get even higher picks in a BOYD deal.

We don't have the assets to build a championship team. Period. And the only way to get more assets is high draft picks and cap room. Those are specifics.

[Ruzious]

Will Gil/Wall make one of the best backcourts in the league? Yes, now show me how you get the other three that loft us to a championship team. The trade Gil people have several ways to get to a championship -- high draft picks and lots of cap for BOYD deals and max players. The keep Gil people need to start throwing out line-ups that demonstrate your way has a chance. Show me line-ups and how we get there. Talk specifics. I haven't heard one plan in about a hundred pages of debate on this topic covering various threads.

High draft picks and cap room to sign players? Those aren't specifics. They represent hopes and dreams. You don't know if those high draft picks are going to turn out to be uber-talents like Wall. Heck, they might not even be as good as Blathce. And you don't know if that "cap space" is going to lead to a single top-flight player signing with the Zards. The only specific you cited was that "Gil/Wall make one of the best backcourts in the league."

That's a fair comment. Cap space opens up a lot of opportunities that we can't see right now. It doesn't just make it possible to sign free agents; it opens up a huge amount of trade possibilities that we can't put specifics on now, because we don't know who will be available in trades. I think we can certainly use it to get a guard who's every bit as good a fit for the Wiz than Arenas is - and have plenty left over. At least we'd have a shot to put together a championship team. If we keep Arenas for the next 4 years, are we going to have that shot? Yes, but the chances are tiny, imo.

[leswizards]

"Trade Arenas" argument.... [is] a foolish business decision with no sound business logic behind it. It's like me having a world class programmer who went on medical leave for 6 months...

Ok, what if your programmer had not been on medical leave for the past 6 months. Instead, let us assume that your programer had only worked 20% out of the past 3 years. He missed the vast majority of the that time because he refused to follow sound medical advice in how he dealt with a medical problem. The rest of the time he missed because he commited a felony which was the result of him hazing a junior employee to the point where he and the junior employee where threatening to shoot each other/blow up the other's vehicle, and then a few days after the initial hazing, the programmer continued the hazing by bringing 4 guns to work in violation of the law and company policy. And then after all of this, as the CEO of the company decided how to handle this programmer, the programmer mocked what he had done as if it was no big deal, and called the CEO of the company mean and mocked him. And by the way, during the 20% of the time that the programmer actually did work, he looked a shell of his former self and made key mistakes which cost the company dearly. Still stand by your assessment.

[barelyawake]

Gil's value won't skyrocket despite how well he plays. A GM will have in mind the gun incident, his injury history, his salary and his lack of defense. He will not net us a lottery pick (or two, or three) -- which is what tanking would give us. Besides, he's a guard. So, a GM has to think of trading big for small. With lottery picks, we can take a top center.

[willbcocks]

And let's say the world class programmer never bothered learning how to protect his software against viruses so it was constantly getting ripped to shreds by opposing programmers....I think I'm over my head here.

[JonathanJoseph]

Can you imagine what OKC (the team everybody wants to emulate) would be like if they had never traded Ray Allen? If they said "hey, we've got so many memories tied up in this guy and he's still a 20ppg scorer, so we can't trade him"? They would not have had the success they had last season and may still be a couple of seasons away from that kind of success. They bit the bullet, flattened everything down to the bottom, and started building from there. Yes, they were lucky in some cases, but they also had to be in a situation to take advantage of that luck. I want the Wizards to be in the same situation.

This is where that comparison falls apart. I'd argue that OKC might be a lot better off having Ray Allen today instead of Jeff Green and probably no better or worse overall.

The 06-07 Seattle/OKC team had nothing in place besides Ray Allen. Rashard Lewis was a FA, and no one in their right mind would have matched that contract so he was gone. Who were the 3rd, 4th and 5th top scorers on that team? Chris Wilcox, Luke Ridnour and Nick Collison. None of those guys are "pieces to the puzzle" much less starting caliber NBA players. Who were the young talent on that team? Michael Gelabale, Damien Wilkins and Johan Petro. So no one of note.

So the thought process in trading Ray Allen is "we need to infuse so much talent into the roster that we need to lose as many games as possible, start from scratch", and that makes sense.

The Wizards are in no such position (cough, cough, credit to Ernie Grunfeld). John Wall looks to be the franchise player. Blatche and McGee are young big men who have gone through growing pains already with a good shot at all-star games. With Young, Thornton, Yi, Seraphin and Booker there are 5 young players who may or may not turn into pieces, but prospects nonetheless. And cap space is not an issue.

The OKC argument makes no sense here. The Wiz are light years ahead of where OKC was when it traded Ray Allen, and even in retrospect that moves looks questionable. I'd argue that a Tyreke Evans, Ray Allen, Kevin Durant lineup would be pretty devastating this year.

I think you continue to underestimate the Wizards potential this year. You keep talking about 30-35 wins but that talent on the roster just doesn't support a win total that low. The Wizards would still win 35 games without Arenas.

[leswizards]

If the choice were between Gil or 3 heinrich equivalents and 3 #17 picks over the next 3 years, I'd take the picks. Even with EG's lack of understanding of value, that would be the far better scenario.

Sounds like a sure fire way to build a mediocre team. Yeah, let's add mediocre overpaid talent & some middling picks every year. Mid-to-late first rounders are great picks to add, if done so cheapily. Seraphin cost us an arm & a leg. to me EG's entire offseason depends upon how good Seraphin eventually becomes. Wall fell into his lap, not sure how much credit he should get for that.

Jamison was traded for a 30th. I would expect Kirk's trade value at the trade deadline to be no worse than Jamison's. I would expect a package of 3 17ths and 3 30ths to net a very high lottery pick, somewhere between 5-10. To me, trading Arenas for in essence what could very easily be turned into that high of a draft pick is no brainer. Having said that, I think the potential of Arenas putting up huge numbers this season is worth the risk of waiting until the trade deadling to move him.

[fishercob]

We don't have the assets to build a championship team. Period. And the only way to get more assets is high draft picks and cap room. Those are specifics.

We do not have the assets to build a championship team. Period. One way to increase our asset base is to allow some of our existing assets to appreciate in value so that they can he cashed in for better assets then they'd fetch now.

nate keeps saying that it's all about 2012. if that's the case, then how does keeping Gil on our cap this year hurt our long term ambitions? We have plenty of time to trade him, clear room for 2012 and get actual picks in return.

We have to build our asset base. Selling low on Gilbert is the exact wrong way to do it.

[JonathanJoseph]

If the choice were between Gil or 3 heinrich equivalents and 3 #17 picks over the next 3 years, I'd take the picks. Even with EG's lack of understanding of value, that would be the far better scenario.

Sounds like a sure fire way to build a mediocre team. Yeah, let's add mediocre overpaid talent & some middling picks every year. Mid-to-late first rounders are great picks to add, if done so cheapily. Seraphin cost us an arm & a leg. to me EG's entire offseason depends upon how good Seraphin eventually becomes. Wall fell into his lap, not sure how much credit he should get for that.

Jamison was traded for a 30th. I would expect Kirk's trade value at the trade deadline to be no worse than Jamison's. I would expect a package of 3 17ths and 3 30ths to net a very high lottery pick, somewhere between 5-10. To me, trading Arenas for in essence what could very easily be turned into that high of a draft pick is no brainer. Having said that, I think the potential of Arenas putting up huge numbers this season is worth the risk of waiting until the trade deadling to move him.

Jamison's trade value is not a fair read on the market.

The Wiz were having a firesale and could only take back draft picks and expiring contracts for an overpaid player. That gave Grunfeld no leverage and a limited market.

We already know that playoff teams wanted to trade for Hinrich who has a much shorter and smaller contract. That suggests an entirely different kind of demand and thus an entirely different trade market.

[barelyawake]

While Gil is on the team, he is increasing our win percentage -- thus lower picks. While Gil is on the team, his salary is not netting us BOYD deals for picks. You wish to rehab his value instead. To what end? You think a healthy Gil will net us what in the end? An Allstar? Again, I think that's us overrating Gil. Gil was underrated in the league to begin with. His value has always been too low. Add the league perception of the gun charge, his salary, his injury history and by 2012 his age, and you aren't going to net a gamechanger from him. And you missed years of collecting lottery picks and picks via BOYD deals.

[BanndNDC]

Of course there's a path to a championship with Gil. This whole path to a championship thing is bs. The odds are slightly better with Arenas than without. Without Arenas we need two major pieces (elite rebounder and big time scorer) and some complementary pieces (including long range shooter). With Arenas we need one major piece (elite rebounder) and some complementary pieces.

Regardless of what is done with Arenas we have a 3 year window to get into the contender conversation before Wall needs an extension. Next year's draft is gonna suck, a lockout will likely occur and a new CBA will change the rules.

Acquiring those missing pieces requires a lot of luck, whether it be the flight of a ping pong ball, a financially strapped franchise or a disgruntled superstar. Considering our ping pong ball luck and the impact wall will have and a top3 pick is certainly not guaranteed or even likely. As for trades, more than just cap room is required. Teams have to tell their fans that they got something and a rehabilitated arenas (two years closer to expiring) is our best chip. When hinrich goes we wont have any cap issues (except maybe a blatche extension if he isnt traded) before a potential wall extension. our window for making the move that can give us another major piece is in 2 years.

Taking a major step back by trading arenas for nothing (and id actually consider a disgruntled carter to be an additional negative in the locker room) today means we're looking at a five year plan for joining the conversation instead of a 3 year plan. A lot can happen in five years and i dont think the main people involved (wall and the fans) are willing to wait that long. the idea of self sabotaging today for extra powerball tickets (when it's not even a mega millions jackpot) is a major major gamble that's being improperly portrayed as the smart move. if you're gonna call for that type of gamble there needs to be some disclosure of the downsides.


ps: i dont think our growth is even improved by dumping gil. nick young is not a building piece. he is what he is, a streaky gunner who might become a decent complementary piece and nothing more. he is not a long term building block.

[gesa2]

Assuming we can unload Hinrich at the deadline this year, we'll have max cap room next summer with or without GIl. Any argument for trading him has to show how we'll need more than that much space to do what we want. Not that I'm counting on it, but if we sign Melo, or Gasol and an elite defensive SF, with our cap room next year, we will have a potentially great team while keeping Gil.

[DCZards]

Ok, what if your programmer had not been on medical leave for the past 6 months. Instead, let us assume that your programer had only worked 20% out of the past 3 years. He missed the vast majority of the that time because he refused to follow sound medical advice in how he dealt with a medical problem. The rest of the time he missed because he commited a felony which was the result of him hazing a junior employee to the point where he and the junior employee where threatening to shoot each other/blow up the other's vehicle, and then a few days after the initial hazing, the programmer continued the hazing by bringing 4 guns to work in violation of the law and company policy. And then after all of this, as the CEO of the company decided how to handle this programmer, the programmer mocked what he had done as if it was no big deal, and called the CEO of the company mean and mocked him. And by the way, during the 20% of the time that the programmer actually did work, he looked a shell of his former self and made key mistakes which cost the company dearly. Still stand by your assessment.

A few problems with your analogy: GA is not some run-of-the-mill "programmer." He's an all-star talent in a field where that kind of talent is hard to come by. Also, GA was starting to play very well in the last 5-6 games he played before getting suspended. So saying that "he looked a shell of his former self" may apply to your programmer but not to Arenas. Finally, programmers don't play out there careers in public in front of cash-paying fans---many of whom recognize that people make stupid mistakes, yet are willing to give them a second chance.

[JonathanJoseph]

While Gil is on the team, he is increasing our win percentage -- thus lower picks. While Gil is on the team, his salary is not netting us BOYD deals for picks. You wish to rehab his value instead. To what end? You think a healthy Gil will net us what in the end? An Allstar? Again, I think that's us overrating Gil. Gil was underrated in the league to begin with. His value has always been too low. Add the league perception of the gun charge, his salary, his injury history and by 2012 his age, and you aren't going to net a gamechanger from him. And you missed years of collecting lottery picks and picks via BOYD deals.

Another complete misperception. It's a draft lottery. There's no guarantee that losing or winning more games gets better draft picks and very little chance that without Arenas it will be a good pick anyway. Wall/Hinrich/Blatche/McGee is going to win 35 games.