Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[AFM]

Draft Express has a new video out on Shabazz
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISAOSMA2kP8

By the way, I'm not advocating drafting him if we get a top 5 pick. But the idea that he should be drafted after, say, Jeff Withey, shows how underrated he is being on this board.

doclinkin, you should especially watch the video to see that he's definitely not floorbound. As well as anyone who compares him to Nick Young. I don't see the similarities at all.
He WOULD be a great fit on the Wizards, our offense is terrible, especially the 2nd unit. He can play both the 2 and the 3 (6'6" w/ 6'11" wing span).

[DCZards]

I don't see what Burke's size has to do with his ability to play SG. When he and Wall are together, the shorter opposing guard is going to be guarding Burke, and the taller guard will guard Wall. If they put a SG on Burke, Burke could either break him down off the dribble, or we could post up John Wall on the block (who would presumably be guarded by the opposing PG). Guys like Jason Terry, J.J. Barea, Luke Ridnoir, Eric Bledsoe and Danny Gibson all play SG despite their diminutive stature. And they don't have the luxury of the taller John Wall on their side. Trey Burke is also going to play taller. He has a wingspan of 6-5 and will probably end up with a taller standing reach than J.J. Redick.

Terry and Gibson are both listed at 6-2 and both, especially Terry, have good length. Bledsoe is 6-1 with a much bigger and stronger body than Burke. So I really don't see these comparisons.

To be clear, I would have no problem seeing Burke in a Zards uni since I think he's going to have a good NBA career. But I'm not drafting a smallish backup PG with a top ten pick given what I consider more pressing needs for the Zards. I'm not using that high of a pick on the next Luke Ridnour or J.J. Berea.

[Ruzious]

And to pile more on Bazz, his frosh teammate - Jordan Adams - really is 18 years old - 2 years younger than Bazz. He produced more and was more efficient at the other wing position for UCLA. He had more assists than to's. He got a rep for being a plus defender. He's an inch shorter with the same type of build - probably not as long, though - so he's strictly a 2. For those who regard Bazz as a top 10 pick, where would you rate Adams?

[nuposse04]

And to pile more on Bazz, his frosh teammate - Jordan Adams - really is 18 years old - 2 years younger than Bazz. He produced more and was more efficient at the other wing position for UCLA. He had more assists than to's. He got a rep for being a plus defender. He's an inch shorter with the same type of build - probably not as long, though - so he's strictly a 2. For those who regard Bazz as a top 10 pick, where would you rate Adams?

Adams shot worse from the 3 pt line by quite a bit, and is a quite a bit better FT shooter. Less on the RB department, kinda pudgy, he needs t lose some fat IMO. He averages an Assist more then Shabazz, which isn't saying a lot. I don't think he has the potential Shabazz has, but I think he could be a solid 13-18 pick next year. Might be able to be like a "power guard" and become a better 3 pt shooter. Are you basing his "production" off his PER or what?

What degree of selfishness? That he doesn't have a have a better assist to TO ratio? I can agree with that but outside of the one aforementioned play he hasn't been THE reason UCLA under-performed. This selfish stigma just seems unwarranted outside of the assist to TO thing. People with these "vibes" need to cite their sources inside the locker room. The age thing seems moot, he's 20. We're considering drafting other 20 year olds right?

I wouldn't characterize my reservations about Shabazz as a concern with his "selfishness". I don't know if he's selfish or not. My concern is his inability to impact a game unless he has the ball in his hands. He has lousy numbers in rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, and he hasn't demonstrated enough catch-and-shoot accuracy to suggest he will be a good off the ball player. And when the ball is in his hands, he doesn't generate points for others and he scores at a relatively low efficiency. In my experience, those types of players rarely evolve their game to become quality off-the-ball role players, and they rarely improve their scoring efficiency to become primary options. They may score in the NBA, but their points come at the expense of ball movement that would yield more efficient scoring from other players.

For Shabazz to be a good player, a significant improvement is necessary. Such an improvement is possible given his relative lack of experience and young age, but it's a pretty big gamble. If Shabazz wants to be a top 10 pick, he should go back to school, get better, and come out next year.

Just curious, what is a good rebounding rate for a SF prospect? I understand the thoughts on steals/blocks, as those reflect general awareness and effort. I'm not convinced that you can't simply exude effort more competently though. I guess my stance boils down to, I don't think it is as big as a gamble as anyone else out of my top 5. He has problems, but everyone in the draft has problems.

[Dark Faze]

Shabazz can help himself a lot in workouts and the combine. I wouldn't really be surprised if he were the pick if he's available when we're selecting.

We're at that point where we really need the combine/lottery to happen before we can speculate much further on draft order.

[The Consiglieri]

The only thing Bazz has going for him is the HS hype and the Howlen factor.

Other than that he's a terrible pick for almost any team in the top 10. Just didn't produce well at all, terrible TS percentage, eye test looked bad, really really really terrible off the court concerns. I'd be shocked if the Kings drafted him--he's exactly what they don't need.

The safest pick in the draft isn't Mclemore--Mclemore if his shot isn't as good as advertised isn't going to be able to affect games in the way Beal can. Beal is better at pretty much everything and is one of the most composed/high IQ rooks I've seen in a while.

I think Otto Porter is the safest pick by a wide margin. He is simply going to add a lot to a team. Problem is that he isn't likely to ever be an all-star, but in a draft like this if you can get a sure-fire starter with zero bust potential then you should probably take it.

My draft board for the Wiz is based on need/floor. With a team that was set to be a playoff team without any additions, going for a homerun isn't necessary. It's more necessary to get a player that is sure to contribute and not be worth nothing in the vein of Singleton/Vesely. So upside isn't really high on my priority. I'm also assuming that we extend Okafor--he has a great history of health and I don't see his production dropping too much over the course of a short term 2-3 year deal. Doesn't count Nerlens or McLemore. Nerlens is clearly #1 on our board if he's there. McLemore we'd probably trade down to a team who likes him.


1. Trey Burke - This is a chess move. He's the BPA available if we get him and there are a lack of point guards in next years draft. If we can showcase him a little and be able to sell him as a franchise point, then we may be able to trade into a very talented 2014 lottery pick.

2. Otto Porter - Safe. Decent upside. Doesn't match Websters shooting or Arizas defense but the impact of either of those guys being out at SF absolutely kills our team. He is going to be the next Kawhi/Faried. A guy that initially you're not thrilled with getting but look back and think, "thank god I was conservative."

3. Kelly Olynyk - The highest skilled big on the floor, would be a perfect safety net for time missed for Nene. PF/C, can play either. He's the perfect PF/C for Wall. Wall loves to dump the ball off to Nene/Okafor at the FT line off the screen roll and Kelly is going to knock those down the vast majority of the time. Defensive and rebounding concerns are overrated, as Kelly had a similar TRB% to Alex Len and other bigs of the draft class.

4. Alex Len - Our hopeful C of the future if drafted. His physical attributes are there, but there are two main flags for me -- his inability to at least make the tournament as a soph with his size/speed in a down year talent wise for the draft class, and two, how invisible he was at times and how he'd look "lost" a lot. Guys who look lost end up living on the bench. The fact that this happened as early as an NIT game makes me wonder how he'll be able to produce in the NBA, where the speed is so much higher and where his physical attributes will get him no where without the IQ and skill the back them up.

5. Anthony Bennett - Tweener. He scares me a lot. He can't play SF. Too bulky. We've seen so many different kinds of tweeners over the last few drafts who have busted so far--Williams, Beasley, T-Rob...and all of them were better than Bennett was in college. The fact that he has some maturity issues makes him a hard sell.

5. Victor Oladipo - Skilled high IQ guard. I'd like to get him and sell him off like Burke, but as a two guard his name won't carry much weight after the shine of the tournament wears off and new draftees come in. I think Burkes shine will be there as a potential franchise point. We'd likely be stuck with Oladipo.

6. Gorgi Dieng - I really like what he brings to the table defensively. The way he was able to defend a very strong Mitch McGary makes me thing he won't get overpowered in the NBA and his jumpshot is really good.

7. Jeff Withey - See above except without the offensive ability and inferior lateral/PNR speed.

8. CJ McCollum - See above, except not as good.

9. Shabazz Muhammad - He has the potential to be a terrible cancer for a team, but his skillset actually does fit in quite well with our team. He'd play similarly offensively to Beal. I'd think of him as basically as a Webster clone who moves off the ball better. Downside is that he's almost certain to be a cancer.

I'm really shocked at your take. I actually happen to believe Porter is one of the highest risks in the draft. His knocks dovetail perfectly with the players that traditionally fail at the next level. The guys that are pretty good at many things, perhaps good at them. I could fill a stadium with former draft picks that had his write up, and his issues who busted. I actually think players like him bust at a far greater rate than players like Shabazz because if nothing else, Shabazz has a talent that is already NBA-ready. He can score, on anyone, at anytime, without any problem.

I also find it odd that a player whose skill in this draft trums the elite level of nearly any other prospects top skill can get such a negative wrap. I am concerned with him, and think that he doesn't really fit what we're trying to do although he adds something we could use (reliable scoring/shooting on the wing). I also am bothered by what I perceive as a me first appraoch, and what I'd consider minor, but bothersome off the court stuff, most of all the age concern. The NCAA issue before the season was and is a bunch of horse--- and doesn't bother me in the least. The NCAA is corrupt up to its eyeballs, and actually evil in my view and twsited. I could care less about what latest phenom they are attempting to exploit while providing him nothing but essentially a live marketing commercial via athletic contests that the NCAA rakes in mountains of cash on. Why would that bother me? The NCAA are a band of thieves, and perverse d-bags. I could care less what farcical witch hunt their readying next.

The lying about his age, however, is a HUGE deal, as deceiving scouts and GM's about a core issue that relates to projectable talent, and upside is a form of fraud. That is really alarming, and a major character issue in my view.

However, at the end of the day, I do think you have a lot of things backward. It will be interesting to see what happens at the next level. I think McLemore, and Muhammad, and Noel, and Bennett are easily the best combo of upside and lower risk, and its odd that Burke, and Porter, two guys high are your list, carry massive risk to me, with Burke having the issue of height and athleticism, and Porter having the dreaded, "good at e3verything, not great at anything" concern, which has torpedoed numerous careers including Jared Jeffries a decade ago.

Time will tell.

[popper]

Celtic fan says Ainge is scouting Ricky Ledo who could be a steal in the second round. The kid's got some sick handles and looks like a mini-Durant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH8stctEEYQ

[stevemcqueen1]

Consiglieri, you're like me in that you rate athleticism and body type very high in importance. Dark Faze seems to favor a steady history of production more.

That's why you are antsy about Porter and Burke, who look to have average athletic tools at best, but very good production. You value explosiveness highly, which is why you like Bennett, Noel, McLemore, and Bazz.

I do to. I think that extra gear or vertical explosiveness is something that makes a star. Certainly not every hyper athlete becomes a star player. But almost every star player is a great athlete. Almost every single one has something that sets them apart physically. Something that they can bank on to give them that genetic edge night in and night out and help them match up physically.

Having that elite physical attribute(s) gives a player a margin for error. If you don't have it, then you have to practically be perfect in execution to produce at the highest level every night. Who can do that?

Elite physical attributes come in all sorts too. Dirk Nowitzki was NOTHING like Amar'e or KG athletically. But he had elite size and length and was consistently unguardable one on one because he could shoot over everyone. You don't have to be loaded up with all kinds of elite physical attributes. But I think you need to have something to set you apart.

What's the attribute that sets Burke apart? I don't know. I personally didn't see one but I could be wrong.

Otto Porter has length though. He's awkward and not very explosive or fast but he's pretty long for a SF with a supposed 7'1 wingspan. He's not as long as a freak like KD or Paul George, but it should be enough to out match a lot of starting SFs.

I don't know that risky is the right word for Porter. If you're drafting him in the top three and expecting him to become a franchise player, then yeah, that's probably a bad risk to assume. But I'd say that comes from bad expectations. He should at least be a good complimentary two way player, a future starter that you can plug in at SF and not have to worry about for a long time. Like Tayshaun Prince. No he's not as long and explosive as Prince was when he was young. But I think he's a much better offensive player than Prince was at the same age.

Porter is going to come in, keep his nose clean, be professional, play hard, and perform his role. He's smart and mature. He "gets it" like Beal. He understands the things to do to contribute to winning basketball. He plays D and looked very communicative from what I saw so I expect him to be a very good team defender. And he's got a very nice and creative mid range offensive game that should translate to the NBA. He's a good jump shooter that developed reliable range past the 3 pt line.

He does have one thing he does at an elite level IMO. He's an elite rebounder for a SF. Like Beal was at the SG position. To me, special rebounding ability is a barometer of NBA success. It's one of the stats that typically seems to translate to the NBA. And it usually is an indicator of motor/assertiveness and basketball IQ. The really good basketball players typically rebound very well for their position because they can anticipate the game and they understand angles and positioning. Porter has this feel for the game.

My bottom line with Porter is that he fills a need for a future starter and I think he takes almost nothing off the table. I like him for us about the same as I like Zeller, just behind Noel and Bennett. Muhammad is more gifted and talented, but I trust Porter more than Muhammad. I feel comfortable committing to Porter as my starting SF long term and would do everything to make that relationship work. Getting that trust right there is half the battle for a prospect.

[stevemcqueen1]

I also want to acknowledge that I could easily be wrong about Muhammad's intangibles and his character. I don't know him and I only have access to limited, second hand information about his character.

And I could be unfair visiting the sins of the father on him. A lot of my lack of trust in him probably comes from finding out all of that information about his shady dad. Maybe his father made him lie about his age all these years?

But I also don't have a lot of reason to believe my intuition is way off base, no information to make me believe the apple fell far from the tree. I don't really remember a prospect coming with this kind of baggage and rising above it all. At the least, there is definitely some smoke with Shabazz. And I'm not sure he's good enough to just ignore it.

My gut says that Bazz's best bet is to slip on draft day and end up on a good team where he can blend into the team early in his career and just get a fresh start without a lot of pressure on him early on. Do we offer that kind of situation for him? Maybe, but I certainly wouldn't say we're a stable, low key situation.

[Da HomeTeam]

I see everybody is overlooking GRIII. He's gonna be the best player in this class. IMO. Wizards need a young 3 to develop. GRIII is the guy though not as polished as Porter, he is waaaaay more athletic. Trey Burke set him up for dunks all year, just like Wall would. We'll see how his work-outs go. The kid has a lot of potential, and you know Big Dogg gonna get him right!

[mhd]

Mock draft if the draft were held today:



1) Magic-Noel
2) Bobcats-Mclemore
3) Cavs-Porter
4) Suns-Shabaaz
5) NO-Smart
6) Kings-Burke
7) Wizards-Bennett/Len

[The Consiglieri]

I see everybody is overlooking GRIII. He's gonna be the best player in this class. IMO. Wizards need a young 3 to develop. GRIII is the guy though not as polished as Porter, he is waaaaay more athletic. Trey Burke set him up for dunks all year, just like Wall would. We'll see how his work-outs go. The kid has a lot of potential, and you know Big Dogg gonna get him right!

You have a point, five years from now, GRIII could have a lot of people shaking their heads. The problem is that he wasn't able to be featured in the same way that a lot of top prospects are at say Kentucky, so the evidence is incomplete and rather scary. If we could move up into the teens, i'd take him for sure.

[Dr Positivity]

I see no reason to believe Shabazz will be a good scorer in the NBA unless get to the rim and create points in the paint/at the FT line. Chucking up midrange shots is not a viable role in the NBA. The players who get the opportunity to put up those long 2pt stinkers, is because they're creating other efficient shots by getting to the rim or being exceptional at 3pt. That's where their value comes from, not the perimeter chucking. A guy who only puts up perimeter shots will have his FGA and role fade quickly. Almost every wing guy in the league can provide that, as well as othernearly irrelevant wings in this draft like Allen Crabbe and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Shabazz and MCW are the guys I'm zeroing in on as the don't eat the candy picks in the top 10/lotto. They have just enough going for them to still be called candy, but don't eat it.

[hands11]

If we're looking at the best combination of "safe pick" and upside, we want to come away this offseason with either Burke and Webster, or Porter and Jarrett Jack (assuming Noel isn't an option). I'm not saying this is absolutely the way to go. I want to see more from Bennett, Zeller, Olynyk and McGary in the combine and in interviews before making any decisions. I'm just saying that those first two options are likely to lead to the most wins in the immediate future.

Ahhh, I finally understand how you wanted to use Burke.

Interesting. But is that really a good idea. Take the ball out of Walls hands when he is likely to be our max star PG ? Why not just get a SG like CJM in a trade down and add a back up PG like Pierre. Then you have injury protection.

And if we go Potter, I think he is a Trevor A replacement, not a Webster replacement which makes that a little harder to pull off so it likely wont happen. We will end up letting Webster go which would be a shame. His 3 ball was something special this year. I would rather have Porter and Webster and Porter and Trevor A. But Trevor A is basically a Porter so why not keep Trevor A and Webster and go fill another need ?

A trade down is getting harder to include Deng as he moves up the charts.

I think they might just go with Len. I don't see bust and he is an athletic big that is only going to get stronger. He will be on a cheap enough contract that you can still extend Okafor. Then you are covered at center for a while.

Shabazz needs to land in SAQ. Sounds like the perfect place for him. I don't want him here. We may need our Melo type one day, but its not now and Shabazz isn't it. Maybe he grows up over time but I don't like what he is now.

This is a crazy draft. For me, I would rather have 5 picks from 14 to the second round then a top pick. There is a ton in this draft down board that interest me.

[hands11]

I'm not making a case for the Zards drafting Shabbazz (although I wouldn't rule it out) but I'm reading a lot of nonsense about not drafting him based on what I consider some weak off court concerns or the "vibe" he gives off. I can't help but believe that there would be more tolerance for Shabbazz if his last name was Jones or Klitsko.

I have to disagree respectfully. He came into the season as a consensus top two guy with Noel. I think his first and last name have nothing to do with any particular perceptions, good or bad. Frankly, I'm more concerned with his rather one dimensional play than any possible off court concerns.

Agreed.

Name ? What does his name have to do with anything ? Though, isn't Shabbazz usually used as a last name ?

[relinquishy]

I'm not making a case for the Zards drafting Shabbazz (although I wouldn't rule it out) but I'm reading a lot of nonsense about not drafting him based on what I consider some weak off court concerns or the "vibe" he gives off. I can't help but believe that there would be more tolerance for Shabbazz if his last name was Jones or Klitsko.

I have to disagree respectfully. He came into the season as a consensus top two guy with Noel. I think his first and last name have nothing to do with any particular perceptions, good or bad. Frankly, I'm more concerned with his rather one dimensional play than any possible off court concerns.

Agreed.

Name ? What does he man have to do with anything ? Though, isn't Shabbazz a last name ?

Shabazz Muhammad is his name. People call him Shabazz because when you say it, you know who he is, kind of similar to how Jimmer Fredette is referred to as simply Jimmer.

[BruceO]

i like a lot of the players boston is scouting like giannis adetokoubo and ricky ledo. Ricky ledo if you recall is the player who went against wall and showed him up ( but i think wall got revenge) he's has good height and is probably underrated cause he didnt play this season..but the fact that he can shoot it and he has a handle..that makes him possibly a really good pick because even the top prospects are limited when it comes to having both. I hope wall has an insiders perspective on him. I'm assuming our second round pick will be someone wall is familiar with or played with before

[nate33]

If we're looking at the best combination of "safe pick" and upside, we want to come away this offseason with either Burke and Webster, or Porter and Jarrett Jack (assuming Noel isn't an option). I'm not saying this is absolutely the way to go. I want to see more from Bennett, Zeller, Olynyk and McGary in the combine and in interviews before making any decisions. I'm just saying that those first two options are likely to lead to the most wins in the immediate future.

Ahhh, I finally understand how you wanted to use Burke.

Interesting. But is that really a good idea. Take the ball out of Walls hands when he is likely to be our max star PG ? Why not just get a SG like CJM in a trade down and add a back up PG like Pierre. Then you have injury protection.

I prefer one really good player rather than 2 mediocre players. I think having Burke as the 3rd guard (plus some easily obtainable cheap 4th and 5th guards like Garrett Temple and Cartier Martin) is a better plan for injury protection. If Wall or Beal goes down, Burke becomes the starter and the team rolls on with little interruption.

Also, I wouldn't be taking the ball out of Wall's hands. When Wall sits (or is hurt), Burke plays PG. When Wall is in the game, Burke would generally play the SG role on offense, though his ball-handling ability would certainly allow for more flexibility.

[fishercob]

I have zero problem with Burke as the pick if he's the BPA when we're up. There would be two sets of downsides; first is that he sucks. This seems unlikely, especially since a big chunk of his minutes would come against opposing twos.

The second is that he's "too good" and you can't find enough minutes for him, John an Brad. This, to paraphrase Chris Partlow (or was it Marlo?), "sounds like one of them good problems." This is how he ends up as a centerpiece in a deal for a star on a desperate team.

Also, keep in mind that against teams without physical and dynamic wings who are computable in the post, we could play wall, beal, and Burke together in stretches -- especially since wall and beal rebound well.

There are a bunch of ways Burke could help the Wizards. I would not pass on him if he's BPA.

[stevemcqueen1]

I see no reason to believe Shabazz will be a good scorer in the NBA unless get to the rim and create points in the paint/at the FT line. Chucking up midrange shots is not a viable role in the NBA. The players who get the opportunity to put up those long 2pt stinkers, is because they're creating other efficient shots by getting to the rim or being exceptional at 3pt. That's where their value comes from, not the perimeter chucking. A guy who only puts up perimeter shots will have his FGA and role fade quickly. Almost every wing guy in the league can provide that, as well as othernearly irrelevant wings in this draft like Allen Crabbe and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Shabazz and MCW are the guys I'm zeroing in on as the don't eat the candy picks in the top 10/lotto. They have just enough going for them to still be called candy, but don't eat it.

Shabazz is probably the most skilled and versatile scorer in the class. He's not limited to mid range jumpers.