Bradley Beal - Part II

[RustyMagoo]

On the bright side, Beal is a better shooter now than Wall was in his second year and, marginally, a better shooter this year than he was last year. So, he is showing improvement and the ceiling is still quite high. Let's keep him grinding and see what happens in the playoffs. Also, the Kid doesn't turn 21 until June.

[Nivek]

Beal is one of the most important players on the team. We win a whopping 81% of the games in which Beal shoots 50% or better from the floor...




...the only problem is that he has shot 50% or better just 16 times in 58 games this season. And he hasn't cracked the 50% mark in 10 games in a row now.

He really is a dreadful shooter. He's GOT to get better. A lot better.

He could help the Wizards a lot just by taking fewer **** shots.

Here's Beal's shot selection and yield by distance so far this season:

Code: Select all

DIST           %FGA    PPS
At-Rim         14%     1.24
3-10 ft        7%      0.66
10-16 ft       11%     0.76
16ft to 3pt    39%     0.72
3pt            30%     1.23


So, from 3ft to the 3pt line, Beal produces just 0.72 points per shot. Yet those shots account for 57% of his FGA. Meanwhile, he produces 1.23 points per shot on attempts at the rim and from the 3pt line, but those account for just 43% of his attempts.

[FAH1223]

Beal is one of the most important players on the team. We win a whopping 81% of the games in which Beal shoots 50% or better from the floor...




...the only problem is that he has shot 50% or better just 16 times in 58 games this season. And he hasn't cracked the 50% mark in 10 games in a row now.

He really is a dreadful shooter. He's GOT to get better. A lot better.

He could help the Wizards a lot just by taking fewer **** shots.

Here's Beal's shot selection and yield by distance so far this season:

Code: Select all

DIST           %FGA    PPS
At-Rim         14%     1.24
3-10 ft        7%      0.66
10-16 ft       11%     0.76
16ft to 3pt    39%     0.72
3pt            30%     1.23


So, from 3ft to the 3pt line, Beal produces just 0.72 points per shot. Yet those shots account for 57% of his FGA. Meanwhile, he produces 1.23 points per shot on attempts at the rim and from the 3pt line, but those account for just 43% of his attempts.

Randy Wittman/Flip Saunders basketball system.

[tontoz]

Beal and Wall both take way too many long 2s. By now it has become clear that nothing is going to change as long as Randy is the coach.

[jivelikenice]

Agreed. Wall at least seems to be exchanging a few long twos for threes (pecpetion - haven't looked into this) but he still does not drive enough and all to often bypasses a wide open layup for a kick out 3.

Beal is what he has been all season. I've noticed very little adjustment from him. He just doesn't get it that the shots hes taking as TERRIBLE.

The players should be aware enough to critique themselves but that hasn't happened. When that doesn't occur, the coach needs to step up - which Randy hasn't.

[Nivek]

Just for giggles, here's the same table for James Harden:

Code: Select all

DIST           %FGA    PPS
At-Rim         27%     1.31
3-10 ft        13%     0.83
10-16 ft       8%      0.89
16ft to 3pt    14%     0.81
3pt            38%     1.06



For Harden, 65% of his FGA are at-rim or from 3pt range. He gets 1.16 points per shot on those attempts combined -- which is actually not as good as Beal. Harden is better than Beal on 2pt jumpers, but they comprise just 35% of his fga.

[jivelikenice]

On the bright side, Beal is a better shooter now than Wall was in his second year and, marginally, a better shooter this year than he was last year. So, he is showing improvement and the ceiling is still quite high. Let's keep him grinding and see what happens in the playoffs. Also, the Kid doesn't turn 21 until June.

Wall had a broken shot coming out. Beal was compared to Ray Allen. Saying that Beal is a better shooter than Wall was in his second year holds know merit.

[jivelikenice]

Beal is one of the most important players on the team. We win a whopping 81% of the games in which Beal shoots 50% or better from the floor...




...the only problem is that he has shot 50% or better just 16 times in 58 games this season. And he hasn't cracked the 50% mark in 10 games in a row now.

He really is a dreadful shooter. He's GOT to get better. A lot better.

He could help the Wizards a lot just by taking fewer **** shots.

Here's Beal's shot selection and yield by distance so far this season:

Code: Select all

DIST           %FGA    PPS
At-Rim         14%     1.24
3-10 ft        7%      0.66
10-16 ft       11%     0.76
16ft to 3pt    39%     0.72
3pt            30%     1.23


So, from 3ft to the 3pt line, Beal produces just 0.72 points per shot. Yet those shots account for 57% of his FGA. Meanwhile, he produces 1.23 points per shot on attempts at the rim and from the 3pt line, but those account for just 43% of his attempts.

If Randy read that he'd tell you to stop with your "Analytical bull****"

[Nivek]

He'd really have told me to "stick..." when he saw the next part I noodled out...just for the hell of it. That is, how many additional points Beal would have scored if he'd mimicked Harden's shot selection while maintaining his percentages from everywhere.

Answer:

Spoiler:

99.

And what would those points be worth?

Spoiler:

About 3 wins so far this the season.

[Dat2U]

To me it looked like a concerted effort by Wall to try to get Beal off last night and it simply was a bad idea. Beal really shouldn't have the green light. He's not really a shot creator. His form gets sloppy when he doesn't have a clean look and he took a lot of contested shots that were off balance with poor mechanics.

I think they are using Beal poorly. I understand the idea of getting him comfortable on the ball, but I'm not really liking the offense running through him because his skill level is still developing and his decision making is terrible. I'd rather him concentrate on what he does well and build confidence that way while slowly working on expanding his all around game during the off-season and training camp.

The long 2s have to go. He takes them with impunity and apparently isn't being told it's a terrible shot. Not sure how that changes if Wittman somehow thinks it's a good shot as well.

Wittman is a big part of the problem here.

[Upper Decker]

I have grown to hate the high screen roll with Brad Beal and Gortat. Occasionally it ends up with Gortat getting a pass leading him to the cup, but for the most part it's a sequence of Beal running back and forth past Gortat so he can get just enough separation to take a slightly open 20 footer. This play occurs at least 10 times a game and while I don't have stats to support this, I believe it's the most inefficient play the Wizards regularly runs.

Everyone seems to place most of the blame for this on Whitttman, but at some point Beal needs to realize he's not making these shots. At some point the player needs to become self aware. He's demonstrating incredibly low basketball IQ. It's like he's become the Andray Blatche of SG's.

I've stated sevaral times on the board that I'd trade Beal while his league wide perception is higher than his actual production / potential. Obviously I'm not giving him away, but if EG called Flip this off-season and offered Beal + Porter + Nene for Love + Martin you have to think Flip privately seriously considers this deal.

[jivelikenice]

He'd really have told me to "stick..." when he saw the next part I noodled out...just for the hell of it. That is, how many additional points Beal would have scored if he'd mimicked Harden's shot selection while maintaining his percentages from everywhere.

Answer:

Spoiler:

99.

And what would those points be worth?

Spoiler:

About 3 wins so far this the season.

That's 38-29. Good enough for the 3 seed. Funny how the incompetence all adds up.

[hands11]

Beal has to pull his head out of his rss.

He currently has a lower WS/48 than

Spoiler:

Jan Vesely .086
Kevin S .077
Beal .064

Stick to shooting more 3 balls

.412 on 4.8 attempts

And lets see more of the post game you did on back to back plays and scored.

Beals eFG ranking on the team..

Spoiler:

10th

TS ranking

Spoiler:

9th

He should be more efficient than this. They need to stop treating him as a first or second option and just treat him as an option. They are forcing his game to much. Run plays for him off double screens like Indy did for Reggie.

I know he is only 20, but time to grow up. To often I hear the wrong things come out of his mouth in post game interviews. And its the same stuff I have been hearing all year. I don't think Randy and Beal is a good pairing. The offense needs to be run through Wall and Miller and less through Beal. And no more long two unless there is 4 seconds of less on the clock.

This is the run to the playoffs. Time to get focused. Do less of what doesn't work well and more of what does. Experiment time is over. Actually, it should be over weeks ago. He has access to the same data we do. Even if Randy doesn't use it, he should be able to see this stuff himself.

Beals usage percentage is the 2nd highest on the team behind Wall but he is the 9th most efficient scorer. There are two solutions to that. Use him at a similar level but focus on what he does more efficiently and/or use him less and get to more shots to Gooden, TA, Webster, Gortat, Kevin S, Booker, or Wall. That the order the of player more efficient then him. Nene as well but he isn't playing right now.

Beal can be used more like a TA or Webster. They are all shooting the 3 ball well. Beal .412, TA .419, Web .393 But Beal takes 16.9 shots/36. TA only takes 11.3, Webby 10.1, Gortat 11.1

Beal is taking to many shots.

Also, get Kevin in the game more often. AH isn't the only option. Kevin can help at times. He has the 5th highest TS % on the team and he will score in the post. The AH drive have been nice. I like his toughness as well. But there is no reason for Randy to operate the way he does. He locks in on something and ignores other options. Kevin has actually come in an saved games before.

Beal needs to shoot less and become less a core focus of the offense. The offense needs to be about Wall, he driving, shooting from outside and distributing. Finding the mismatches and hot hands and riding them. And when Wall isn't in, let Miller run the show. Right now it feels like they are trying to have 3 PG or two and a Wade. They don't have that.

Lastly, this team would look a lot better with one more SG/PG or SG option. To bad Rice hasn't been that player. Not sure another rookie is the answer there. Any average NBA player with 3 years exp would be nice.

[nate33]

Agree with all of this. Less shots for Beal. Get Seraphin in there in place of Harrington (assuming Seraphin is healthy). More shots for Gooden.

Let's see more Wall/Gortat pick-and-rolls instead of that weird 2-man game with Gortat and Beal where Beal throws it to Gortat and then tries to use Gortat as a screen to get open. And I wouldn't mind seeing a few plays run for Webster from time-to-time. He has a pretty good catch-and-shoot game when coming off the screens. He can do more than just camp out in the corner.

[ptptpt]

I remember the few times I watched Webster when he was in PDX and he used to get pretty hot off of catch and shoot. Problem was at the time he couldn't do much else. His ball handling from that time to now is almost night and day.

[pancakes3]

He'd really have told me to "stick..." when he saw the next part I noodled out...just for the hell of it. That is, how many additional points Beal would have scored if he'd mimicked Harden's shot selection while maintaining his percentages from everywhere.

Answer:

Spoiler:

99.

And what would those points be worth?

Spoiler:

About 3 wins so far this the season.

To me that seems more marginal than expected. A complete overhaul of Beal's offense would only add 3 more wins and roughly +1.6ppg.

I don't think we should scrutinize Beal too much and keep the generalizations big picture instead of nitpicking individual outings. Getting caught up in the minutiae will wreck havoc on a shooter's confidence. Big picture is to (as all of you have said) cut down on long 2's and take it to the rim more. That's the only real "change" Beal needs to work on. Everything else is good and it's incredibly unfair to say that Beal isn't improving or even regressing. I mean, his career 3p% is 40%! Career!

[Nivek]

pancakes: Don't agree that a minor change in Beal's offense would have a marginal result. Three wins are a lot -- especially when it's something as simple as which shots a guy chooses to take. (And there'd be a similar kind of effect by adjusting Wall's shot selection as well). And, I don't think it would constitute a "complete overhaul" either. Essentially, it boils down to getting them to focus on taking shots they a) make more often, and b) have a higher yield.

That said, I agree completely that we shouldn't make too much of any one particular outing for Beal (and for others too).

Finally, I do think it's fair to say Beal isn't improving -- at least not much. He's not regressing, though. His overall performance this season is about the same as it was last season. That's probably disappointing for those who were expecting a big jump. I thought he'd get a little better, but that his bigger jumps would come in years three and four.

[pcbothwel]

Not to throw cold water on the Analytics Parade, but I do want to point out 2 things about Beal:

1) I think some of his negatives are out of stubbornness, not low BBIQ. There is a difference and only one can really be corrected with maturation.

2) While everyone talked about Wall learning a post game from Andre, I actually think Beal is the one with the potential. If anyone saw the back-to-back shots Beal made in the 4th from the post against Sac, then you know that was D-Wade 2.0. I think his strong build with low center of gravity (like a RB) is going to be a way for him to really expand his game. Everyone already see how often he out-rebounds taller guys with strength and positioning.

I think Beal is really in a Sophomore slump. He came into the league as a high pick and started poorly. Once he really took off in the 2nd half of last year I think he was itching to try and do too much this year. But we should not forget:
A) He can shoot...well
B) He rebounds
C) He passes
D) He is smart
E) He is physically strong
G) He has ice water in his veins in the 4th
H) He is 20. (6 months younger than Alex Poythress and Rodney Hood, and a year younger than Mitch McGary)

[Illuminaire]

I find this really interesting. Recently we've been having a number of discussions about the value of coaching. If something as controllable as shot selection (for the two primary initiators of offense) could really result in a scoring differential change of ~3 points and an additional 5-6 wins per year...

...doesn't that indicate that above-average coaching can have a very real and demonstrable impact?

Or should we rather take from this that individual analytics break down once applied to the team level?

[Nivek]

1) I think some of his negatives are out of stubbornness, not low BBIQ. There is a difference and only one can really be corrected with maturation.

None of us really knows the cause -- we're just looking at the symptoms. Whatever the reason, the problem remains: too many 2pt jumpers.