Predicting the Eastern Conference Standings 2014/2015 Season

[Higga]

I don't think home court means anything. We were better on the road in the playoffs last year anyway. I'd actually rather be on the road. Steal game 1 or 2 on the road then take home court and win it in 6.

[dobrojim]

No. In a 3-way tie, the first criteria results in a ranking of CHI-TOR-WIZ.
That's the end of story.

Right now, CHI and TOR have the same record, but TOR is the higher seed because of they won the division. Division winners are guaranteed a top 4 seed and tie-breaker against non-division winners

OK. But I'm not sure that Div winner trumps h2h when determining HCA in the case of tie.
Seed is really meaningless if a higher seed doesn't confer HCA.

[mademan]

No. In a 3-way tie, the first criteria results in a ranking of CHI-TOR-WIZ.
That's the end of story.

Right now, CHI and TOR have the same record, but TOR is the higher seed because of they won the division. Division winners are guaranteed a top 4 seed and tie-breaker against non-division winners

OK. But I'm not sure that Div winner trumps h2h when determining HCA in the case of tie.
Seed is really meaningless if a higher seed doesn't confer HCA.

Im only talking tie-breakers. If we all end up with the same record, it'll be TOR-CHI-WAS

[dobrojim]

deleted original post - Div winner is a clear winner in tiebreaker scenario.
Sorry for the earlier misinformation.

But overall w-l record confers HCA so it's possible a higher seed could
open as a road team in the playoffs ie. not have HCA.

[mademan]

Not by my reading. First throw out seed because while that can determine your slot, it doesn't
confer HCA. First criteria in the case of 2 way tie is h2h. First criteria in a 3 way tie is record
in the games among the 3 teams. TOR could finish as 4th seed by virtue of div win but if they
play CHI and CHI had the same season w-l, TOR would effectively be the 5th seed
since h2h, by my reading, would be determinative wrt HCA.

Again, the first tie breaker is whether you're a division winner, then it's h2h, then division record and so forth.

(-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(3) Division won-lost percentage
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(7) Net Points, all games

http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/

So in case of a 3-way tie, TOR has the 3 seed, WAS has the 4 seed and CHI has the 5 seed

[dobrojim]

You're right. I went to 2 way and 3 way ties before looking at the top part.

[dckingsfan]

Have to (grudgingly) give Wittman props for resting different players. Seems like he has a plan.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Well here we go.. 4 games left.

Apr 10 @ BRK
Apr 12 ATL
Apr 14 @ IND TNT
Apr 15 @ CLE

1 game behind CHI and 2 behind TOR

Wizard at 45 wins. Currently in 5th

I think 46 is where the Wizards will finish.

If they win out it will be huge.

[dckingsfan]

Why do you think we will only win one more game CCJ?

[hands11]

Not by my reading. First throw out seed because while that can determine your slot, it doesn't
confer HCA. First criteria in the case of 2 way tie is h2h. First criteria in a 3 way tie is record
in the games among the 3 teams. TOR could finish as 4th seed by virtue of div win but if they
play CHI and CHI had the same season w-l, TOR would effectively be the 5th seed
since h2h, by my reading, would be determinative wrt HCA.

Again, the first tie breaker is whether you're a division winner, then it's h2h, then division record and so forth.

(-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(3) Division won-lost percentage
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(7) Net Points, all games

http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/

So in case of a 3-way tie, TOR has the 3 seed, WAS has the 4 seed and CHI has the 5 seed

http://www.nbaplayoffsbracket.com/2015/index.php

Which boils down to

TOR maybe getting out of the first to get beat by CLE the 2nd

or

Them losing in the first to the WIZ

I'd rather get TOR in the first. We already did the CHI series last year.

WIZ vs TOR would be an entertaining series. If we lose, its going to most likely be do to Wittless's terrible coaching which will help make it clear we need an upgrade. Ted eats his contract for one year. We get new coach. Hopefully a really good one.

[Detective]

Not by my reading. First throw out seed because while that can determine your slot, it doesn't
confer HCA. First criteria in the case of 2 way tie is h2h. First criteria in a 3 way tie is record
in the games among the 3 teams. TOR could finish as 4th seed by virtue of div win but if they
play CHI and CHI had the same season w-l, TOR would effectively be the 5th seed
since h2h, by my reading, would be determinative wrt HCA.

Again, the first tie breaker is whether you're a division winner, then it's h2h, then division record and so forth.

(-) Tie breaker not needed (better overall winning percentage)
(1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division
(2) Head-to-head won-lost percentage
(3) Division won-lost percentage
(4) Conference won-lost percentage
(5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference
(6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference
(7) Net Points, all games

http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/

So in case of a 3-way tie, TOR has the 3 seed, WAS has the 4 seed and CHI has the 5 seed

http://www.nbaplayoffsbracket.com/2015/index.php

Which boils down to

TOR maybe getting out of the first to get beat by CLE the 2nd

or

They losing in the first to the WIZ

I'd rather get TOR in the first. We already did the CHI series last year.

It would be an interesting series for sure, bro. Kind of like a sequel to the war of 1812.

Or Whitehouse Down II

[hands11]

April 9, 2015, 6:00 pm
Atlanta didn't need this heading into the playoffs.

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball-washington-wizards/talk/hawks-thabo-sefolosha-arrest-injured-miss-playoffs

Atlanta Hawks guard Thabo Sefolosha suffered a season-ending broken fibula while being arrested in New York early Wednesday morning. The key reserve for the Eastern Conference leaders will also miss the playoffs

Amazing.

[Detective]

April 9, 2015, 6:00 pm
Atlanta didn't need this heading into the playoffs.

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball-washington-wizards/talk/hawks-thabo-sefolosha-arrest-injured-miss-playoffs

Atlanta Hawks guard Thabo Sefolosha suffered a season-ending broken fibula while being arrested in New York early Wednesday morning. The key reserve for the Eastern Conference leaders will also miss the playoffs

Amazing.

He looks like a prime candidate to win the 2015 NBA Darwin award. The trophy is shaped like that fire extinguisher that T.K.O'd Amar'e a couple seasons ago.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Why do you think we will only win one more game CCJ?

Guarded pessimism isn't necessarily rational, dckingsfan.

@BRK is the only one they are going to be favored, maybe.

ATL will likely be a loss.
@IND the same.
@CLE depends on the Cavs resting starters.

One more win or maybe two is what the odds say.

[hands11]

Why do you think we will only win one more game CCJ?

Guarded pessimism isn't necessarily rational, dckingsfan.

@BRK is the only one they are going to be favored, maybe.

ATL will likely be a loss.
@IND the same.
@CLE depends on the Cavs resting starters.

One more win or maybe two is what the odds say.

One thing you know about this team is... no one knows this team.

They could play horrible or play like a conference title team and anywhere in between.

Lots of that is on the line up and focus on the offense. i.e Randy not putting players in the best position to achieve knowing who they are both talent and personality. We see glimpses of what it could be, but those are not his established line ups or rotations and he hasn't done them with everyone healthy.

Only established line up I now is Randy starting Wall, Beal, PP, Nene and Gortat. And that's not anything I can count on being a winning formula against good teams because of lots of reasons that have been posted about lots of times.

The line ups we have been seeing while they have been playing well, I don't know that those will be the line ups.

So much is up in the air because Randy never discovered and established the best line up, rotations and offensive focus. Well, in part because offense isn't important to him. The defense is the offense.

I would expect them to play amazing ball given what I have been seeing. But you never know when Randy will strew if all. It can fall apart again just a quickly as it been coming together.

My bigger concern. Integration Nene back into the rotation. And PP starting leading to Otto invisible mode. Which is why both should be coming off the bench.

[hands11]

How they finish off these last 4 will clearly set the table some for the fans mood. So far, it looks like that they are doing the right things in removing ( resting ) Nene, getting Paul his rest and even getting Wall a day off. That has the appearance of a professional organization. Beating MEM in MEM helps make that story even better. Beating up on the lesser teams doesn't hurt either. Nor did taking care of PHI without Wall. All good stuff.

Just wish Randy wasn't such a bone head during the season. Several of those loses could have easily been avoided by line up and rotation adjustment. And by never having gotten away from The Machine Marcin

[dckingsfan]

Well, you could get lucky hands - you might see Checkers and Wittman gone at the end of the year. But if I was a betting person - by them getting at least the 5th seed, they will both be back.

[dckingsfan]

That Chicago win really didn't help home court

[hands11]

Why do you think we will only win one more game CCJ?

Guarded pessimism isn't necessarily rational, dckingsfan.

@BRK is the only one they are going to be favored, maybe.

ATL will likely be a loss.
@IND the same.
@CLE depends on the Cavs resting starters.

One more win or maybe two is what the odds say.

One thing you know about this team is... no one knows this team.

They could play horrible or play like a conference title team and anywhere in between.

Lots of that is on the line up and focus on the offense. i.e Randy not putting players in the best position to achieve knowing who they are both talent and personality. We see glimpses of what it could be, but those are not his established line ups or rotations and he hasn't done them with everyone healthy.

Only established line up I now is Randy starting Wall, Beal, PP, Nene and Gortat. And that's not anything I can count on being a winning formula against good teams because of lots of reasons that have been posted about lots of times.

The line ups we have been seeing while they have been playing well, I don't know that those will be the line ups.

So much is up in the air because Randy never discovered and established the best line up, rotations and offensive focus. Well, in part because offense isn't important to him. The defense is the offense.

I would expect them to play amazing ball given what I have been seeing. But you never know when Randy will strew if all. It can fall apart again just a quickly as it been coming together.

My bigger concern. Integration Nene back into the rotation. And PP starting leading to Otto invisible mode. Which is why both should be coming off the bench.

This was posted before that abomination game against BRK while things were feeling really good. There ya go. From feeling good beating MEM in MEM to the lowest of lows...losing by 37 in BRK after cutting the lead to 10 after being down 30.

I give you.. Randy Whitless.. And thats why who your HC is matters ... in a nut shell.

And he did this all while we were still mathematically still in the race for home court in the playoffs.

[dckingsfan]

Why do you think we will only win one more game CCJ?

Guarded pessimism isn't necessarily rational, dckingsfan.

@BRK is the only one they are going to be favored, maybe.

ATL will likely be a loss.
@IND the same.
@CLE depends on the Cavs resting starters.

One more win or maybe two is what the odds say.

Sadly, you seem to be prescient on this one... just don't see us beating Atlanta unless they give their guys some rest and we play our guys.