Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIV

[Kanyewest]

When was the last time Grunfail did any trade mildly impressive that caught you by surprise? Pierce was the last I could think of, and that only lasted a year.

The Ramon Sessions trade, getting Jared Dudley for nothing, and the draft selection of Oubre. Also a lot of questionable moves before and after.

He didn't get Dudley for nothing. He traded a R2 pick for him. Trading a pick for a guy you keep for one year then let walk for nothing... no, that is *not* a good move.

The Sessions trade was better, certainly. They got him for Andre Miller. They had acquired Miller exactly 1 year earlier. & what did that deal look like, you ask? What did we give for Miller?

Spoiler:

To acquire Andre Miller, whom we kept for a year, we gave up the guy we'd picked #6 in the draft a couple of years earlier (Jan Vesely), the FA point guard we'd signed on the first day of free agency only a few months earlier (Eric Maynor), & not one but two R2 picks. Like the Bogdanovic trade, the main function of this move was to hide Ernie's mistakes -- Miller was persona non grata in Denver, where he'd had a big disagreement w/ the coach & wasn't being played at all. They'd have taken a ham sandwich for him.

The pick is top 55 protected in 2020. Otherwise, the Wizards will not have to convey the pick.

Sent from my LG-D851 using RealGM mobile app

[trast66]

The Suns front office must have attended the Phil Jackson school of trade negotiations.

They need to find a sucker GM notorious for negotiating against himself to get anything for Bledsoe.

[NatP4]

Jerian Grant with 12-10-6 tonight. he was 17th(!) in RPM among PGs last year just behind Teague and Bledsoe but above Brogdon. This guy is either going to be traded or become a 3rd string benchwarmer soon.

[payitforward]

...We're not talking about a lottery pick here. We're talking about perhaps the 24th-28th pick in the draft. It's highly unlikely that the guy will pan out to be a full time starter. More likely, he'll be useless for his first two years and, if we're lucky, he'll develop into a rotation caliber bench player by his third season who plays 15-20 minutes a night - a guy about as good as Trevor Booker. We'd have him for 2 more years on that cheap rookie contract, at which point he'll be bid out of our reach.

We wouldn't be sacrificing that much.

Well... we won't go to war over this, esp. since you are right that it's very unlikely Bedsoe winds up here. But, it's my understanding that after the very first few picks in the draft there is very low correlation between where a guy is picked & how good a career he has in the NBA. For that matter, Bledsoe wasn't a lottery pick.

Here are 60 or more guys from the last 6 drafts, every one of them available at #22 (where we'd have picked last year) or later: kenneth faried, nikola mirotic, reggie jackson, cory joseph, jimmy butler, chandler parsons, jon leuer, davis bertans, isaiah thomas, jae crowder, draymond green, khris middleton, will barton, kyle o’quinn, gorgui deng, tim hardaway jr., andre roberson, rudy gobert, james ennis, clint capela, kyle anderson, damien inglis, glenn robinson, nikola jokic, dwight powell, jordan clarkson, tyus jones, larry nance, kevon looney, montrezl harrell, willie hernangomez, richaun holmes, josh richardson, norman powell, ante zizic, timothy luwawu-cabarret, brice johnson, furkam korkmaz, pascal siakam, dejounte murray, damian jones, deyonta davis, cheick diallo, ivica zubac, tyler ulis, malcolm brogdon, patrick mccaw, jarret allen, caleb swanigan, kyle kuzma, tony bradley josh hart, frank mason, jordan bell, jawun evans, thomas bryant, sindarius thornwell.

A bunch of those guys I'd rather have than Bledsoe -- straight up. & pretty much any of them I'd rather pick & have control over than to trade for a guy like Bledsoe who I'll keep for 2 seasons.

[dangermouse]

The Suns front office must have attended the Phil Jackson school of trade negotiations.

They need to find a sucker GM notorious for negotiating against himself to get anything for Bledsoe.

I know a guy

[Wiz99]

...We're not talking about a lottery pick here. We're talking about perhaps the 24th-28th pick in the draft. It's highly unlikely that the guy will pan out to be a full time starter. More likely, he'll be useless for his first two years and, if we're lucky, he'll develop into a rotation caliber bench player by his third season who plays 15-20 minutes a night - a guy about as good as Trevor Booker. We'd have him for 2 more years on that cheap rookie contract, at which point he'll be bid out of our reach.

We wouldn't be sacrificing that much.

Well... we won't go to war over this, esp. since you are right that it's very unlikely Bedsoe winds up here. But, it's my understanding that after the very first few picks in the draft there is very low correlation between where a guy is picked & how good a career he has in the NBA. For that matter, Bledsoe wasn't a lottery pick.

Here are 60 or more guys from the last 6 drafts, every one of them available at #22 (where we'd have picked last year) or later: kenneth faried, nikola mirotic, reggie jackson, cory joseph, jimmy butler, chandler parsons, jon leuer, davis bertans, isaiah thomas, jae crowder, draymond green, khris middleton, will barton, kyle o’quinn, gorgui deng, tim hardaway jr., andre roberson, rudy gobert, james ennis, clint capela, kyle anderson, damien inglis, glenn robinson, nikola jokic, dwight powell, jordan clarkson, tyus jones, larry nance, kevon looney, montrezl harrell, willie hernangomez, richaun holmes, josh richardson, norman powell, ante zizic, timothy luwawu-cabarret, brice johnson, furkam korkmaz, pascal siakam, dejounte murray, damian jones, deyonta davis, cheick diallo, ivica zubac, tyler ulis, malcolm brogdon, patrick mccaw, jarret allen, caleb swanigan, kyle kuzma, tony bradley josh hart, frank mason, jordan bell, jawun evans, thomas bryant, sindarius thornwell.

A bunch of those guys I'd rather have than Bledsoe -- straight up. & pretty much any of them I'd rather pick & have control over than to trade for a guy like Bledsoe who I'll keep for 2 seasons.

2 quality posts.

Interestingly, you proved each other’s point.

Those 60-something guys taken at #22 or lower? There were about 3 other players for each 1, so a 1 in 4 chance for a decent player.

That’s not so far off from Nate’s “highly unlikely”, which in my book is something like 1 in 5 odds or less.

[nate33]

...We're not talking about a lottery pick here. We're talking about perhaps the 24th-28th pick in the draft. It's highly unlikely that the guy will pan out to be a full time starter. More likely, he'll be useless for his first two years and, if we're lucky, he'll develop into a rotation caliber bench player by his third season who plays 15-20 minutes a night - a guy about as good as Trevor Booker. We'd have him for 2 more years on that cheap rookie contract, at which point he'll be bid out of our reach.

We wouldn't be sacrificing that much.

Well... we won't go to war over this, esp. since you are right that it's very unlikely Bedsoe winds up here. But, it's my understanding that after the very first few picks in the draft there is very low correlation between where a guy is picked & how good a career he has in the NBA. For that matter, Bledsoe wasn't a lottery pick.

Here are 60 or more guys from the last 6 drafts, every one of them available at #22 (where we'd have picked last year) or later: kenneth faried, nikola mirotic, reggie jackson, cory joseph, jimmy butler, chandler parsons, jon leuer, davis bertans, isaiah thomas, jae crowder, draymond green, khris middleton, will barton, kyle o’quinn, gorgui deng, tim hardaway jr., andre roberson, rudy gobert, james ennis, clint capela, kyle anderson, damien inglis, glenn robinson, nikola jokic, dwight powell, jordan clarkson, tyus jones, larry nance, kevon looney, montrezl harrell, willie hernangomez, richaun holmes, josh richardson, norman powell, ante zizic, timothy luwawu-cabarret, brice johnson, furkam korkmaz, pascal siakam, dejounte murray, damian jones, deyonta davis, cheick diallo, ivica zubac, tyler ulis, malcolm brogdon, patrick mccaw, jarret allen, caleb swanigan, kyle kuzma, tony bradley josh hart, frank mason, jordan bell, jawun evans, thomas bryant, sindarius thornwell.

A bunch of those guys I'd rather have than Bledsoe -- straight up. & pretty much any of them I'd rather pick & have control over than to trade for a guy like Bledsoe who I'll keep for 2 seasons.

2 quality posts.

Interestingly, you proved each other’s point.

Those 60-something guys taken at #22 or lower? There were about 3 other players for each 1, so a 1 in 4 chance for a decent player.

That’s not so far off from Nate’s “highly unlikely”, which in my book is something like 1 in 5 odds or less.

For the record, I said it was highly unlikely that the guy would become a starter. Half of the guys on PIF's list aren't starters. They're role players who have zero value once they hit free agency and their prices get bid up.

[Ruzious]

With Bledsoe, we'd be 7 deep in starting-caliber talent with our 8th, 9th and 10th men being competent role players (Meeks, Scott and Smith). That's a really strong team!

This is not how to build a team.

Now, if I thought a move gave us a legitimate shot at a title this year or next, any move at all, of course I'd do it. But, what you are calling "a legit, second-tier contender" translates, IMO, into the 8th or 9th best team of 30. I.e. scraping at getting into the top 25%. I.e. there's no title shot short-term.

I agree with nate33. I think the Wizards top 6 + Bledsoe = a legit Contender. We'll be a little thin at the 5, but once we establish Contender status (with a capital "C"), we'll likely be able pick up someone (better than Ochefu) off the waiver wire in time for the stretch run.

While I certainly agree that EG has been far too frivolous with our draft picks up until this point, those traded picks and missed opportunities are all sunk costs. We can't go back and draft the young bench big and combo guard we now need; we can't go back to buy the rights to Jordan "self-alley oop" Bell.

But, now that we've locked up our Big 3 to max contracts, we're constrained going forward by how we can improve the roster. We all agree that we're (at least) a Piece away from being a legitimate contender, but we won't have the cap space or young trade assets to acquire that Piece. As of now, our only chance of winning with this core during this current contract window is to mortgage a bit more of our future to acquire a distressed asset --and hope that this asset flourishes in DC and becomes our missing Piece.

Now, it's not always easy to predict when an asset will become distressed. But it's not impossible, either. Bledsoe's been on the trading block for a while; it's not that surprising that his stock has (presumably) dropped. Perhaps Cousins or Davis will be next. But at some point, we should try our best to grab one of these distressed assets. And, given our lack of solid trade assets, it'll likely require at least one future pick to do it.

And again, Bledsoe would be here only this season and next - while the 1st rounder is gone. That for a backup guard who probably would hate being a backup guard and has one removed meniscus and one repaired meciscus. He's a capable player, but he's no longer the brilliant athlete he used to be. Not to mention, he's not a very reliable 3 point shooter. If we're going to trade assets to get a 3rd guard, I want it to be for someone who will spread out defenses.

I'd love to get an Eric Gordon type -- but Gordon clearly isn't available. Who's the ideal third guard who might become available?

Someone else mentioned Reggie Jackson. I think I prefer Bledsoe. Younger combo guards like Dipo and Waiters aren't likely to become distressed assets anytime soon. Any other options?

Gordon would be a better fit than Bledsoe and Jackson, because he does stretch defenses. That makes the whole team better. Dipo, Waiters, Bledsoe, Jackson - don't.

[payitforward]

...getting Jared Dudley for nothing....

He didn't get Dudley for nothing. He traded a R2 pick for him....

The pick is top 55 protected in 2020. Otherwise, the Wizards will not have to convey the pick.

Ah... in that case you are right. They got him for nothing. Then again he didn't help us do anything either. & then he was gone after 1 year.

If acquiring Dudley is an example of Grunfeld making a good move... that's pathetic.

[keynote]

I'd love to get an Eric Gordon type -- but Gordon clearly isn't available. Who's the ideal third guard who might become available?

Someone else mentioned Reggie Jackson. I think I prefer Bledsoe. Younger combo guards like Dipo and Waiters aren't likely to become distressed assets anytime soon. Any other options?

Gordon would be a better fit than Bledsoe and Jackson, because he does stretch defenses. That makes the whole team better. Dipo, Waiters, Bledsoe, Jackson - don't.

Well, obviously, Gordon would be the ideal choice -- that's why I listed him as the archetype. The problem is that there aren't many Gordon-types available -- certainly not at below market value (which is all we can realistically afford, given our trade assets). Any distressed asset we acquire is going to have a blemish.

So, given the above, would you recommend?

[nuposse04]

Well... we won't go to war over this, esp. since you are right that it's very unlikely Bedsoe winds up here. But, it's my understanding that after the very first few picks in the draft there is very low correlation between where a guy is picked & how good a career he has in the NBA. For that matter, Bledsoe wasn't a lottery pick.

Here are 60 or more guys from the last 6 drafts, every one of them available at #22 (where we'd have picked last year) or later: kenneth faried, nikola mirotic, reggie jackson, cory joseph, jimmy butler, chandler parsons, jon leuer, davis bertans, isaiah thomas, jae crowder, draymond green, khris middleton, will barton, kyle o’quinn, gorgui deng, tim hardaway jr., andre roberson, rudy gobert, james ennis, clint capela, kyle anderson, damien inglis, glenn robinson, nikola jokic, dwight powell, jordan clarkson, tyus jones, larry nance, kevon looney, montrezl harrell, willie hernangomez, richaun holmes, josh richardson, norman powell, ante zizic, timothy luwawu-cabarret, brice johnson, furkam korkmaz, pascal siakam, dejounte murray, damian jones, deyonta davis, cheick diallo, ivica zubac, tyler ulis, malcolm brogdon, patrick mccaw, jarret allen, caleb swanigan, kyle kuzma, tony bradley josh hart, frank mason, jordan bell, jawun evans, thomas bryant, sindarius thornwell.

A bunch of those guys I'd rather have than Bledsoe -- straight up. & pretty much any of them I'd rather pick & have control over than to trade for a guy like Bledsoe who I'll keep for 2 seasons.

2 quality posts.

Interestingly, you proved each other’s point.

Those 60-something guys taken at #22 or lower? There were about 3 other players for each 1, so a 1 in 4 chance for a decent player.

That’s not so far off from Nate’s “highly unlikely”, which in my book is something like 1 in 5 odds or less.

For the record, I said it was highly unlikely that the guy would become a starter. Half of the guys on PIF's list aren't starters. They're role players who have zero value once they hit free agency and their prices get bid up.

On top of that, I'm curious how many of those guys actually outproduced Bledsoe in years 1-3 of their rookie contracts then what you would get with a motivated Bledsoe (supposedly he's mailing it in according to PHX fans, thus poor play lately?)

I don't particularly want to make such a drastic move for a player like him, but if we could find a solid PF we could lock up for 3 seasons via a trade, I'd consider it. Ideally we should have found a diamond in the rough by now... but alas...Ernie...

[Ruzious]

I'd love to get an Eric Gordon type -- but Gordon clearly isn't available. Who's the ideal third guard who might become available?

Someone else mentioned Reggie Jackson. I think I prefer Bledsoe. Younger combo guards like Dipo and Waiters aren't likely to become distressed assets anytime soon. Any other options?

Gordon would be a better fit than Bledsoe and Jackson, because he does stretch defenses. That makes the whole team better. Dipo, Waiters, Bledsoe, Jackson - don't.

Well, obviously, Gordon would be the ideal choice -- that's why I listed him as the archetype. The problem is that there aren't many Gordon-types available -- certainly not at below market value (which is all we can realistically afford, given our trade assets). Any distressed asset we acquire is going to have a blemish.

So, given the above, would you recommend?

Dipo - at least he defends. I'd have little to no interest in the others.

[Kanyewest]

He didn't get Dudley for nothing. He traded a R2 pick for him....

The pick is top 55 protected in 2020. Otherwise, the Wizards will not have to convey the pick.

Ah... in that case you are right. They got him for nothing. Then again he didn't help us do anything either. & then he was gone after 1 year.

If acquiring Dudley is an example of Grunfeld making a good move... that's pathetic.

I disagree. Dudley being an expiring contract was a positive given that Washington was trying to free up cap space, and certainly far better than giving Pierce a multi-year deal. Dudley exceeded his value so much when he was with the Wizards that the Suns ended up giving Dudley a 3 year $30 million contract. Dudley was a poor rebounder but certainly was worthy of being in a NBA rotation given that he was a decent team defender and one of the top 3 point shooters in the league. And it was a good move at the end of the day not to retain Dudley since their would not have been enough minutes for Oubre to develop.

Again, Grunfeld has made many questionable moves before and after (before- Alan Anderson/Gary Neal, after - Ian Mahinmi/Andrew Nicholson). But calling this move pathetic in a vacuum is irrational.

[payitforward]

Well... we won't go to war over this, esp. since you are right that it's very unlikely Bedsoe winds up here. But, it's my understanding that after the very first few picks in the draft there is very low correlation between where a guy is picked & how good a career he has in the NBA. For that matter, Bledsoe wasn't a lottery pick.

Here are 60 or more guys from the last 6 drafts, every one of them available at #22 (where we'd have picked last year) or later: kenneth faried, nikola mirotic, reggie jackson, cory joseph, jimmy butler, chandler parsons, jon leuer, davis bertans, isaiah thomas, jae crowder, draymond green, khris middleton, will barton, kyle o’quinn, gorgui deng, tim hardaway jr., andre roberson, rudy gobert, james ennis, clint capela, kyle anderson, damien inglis, glenn robinson, nikola jokic, dwight powell, jordan clarkson, tyus jones, larry nance, kevon looney, montrezl harrell, willie hernangomez, richaun holmes, josh richardson, norman powell, ante zizic, timothy luwawu-cabarret, brice johnson, furkam korkmaz, pascal siakam, dejounte murray, damian jones, deyonta davis, cheick diallo, ivica zubac, tyler ulis, malcolm brogdon, patrick mccaw, jarret allen, caleb swanigan, kyle kuzma, tony bradley josh hart, frank mason, jordan bell, jawun evans, thomas bryant, sindarius thornwell.

A bunch of those guys I'd rather have than Bledsoe -- straight up. & pretty much any of them I'd rather pick & have control over than to trade for a guy like Bledsoe who I'll keep for 2 seasons.

2 quality posts.

Interestingly, you proved each other’s point.

Those 60-something guys taken at #22 or lower? There were about 3 other players for each 1, so a 1 in 4 chance for a decent player.

That’s not so far off from Nate’s “highly unlikely”, which in my book is something like 1 in 5 odds or less.

For the record, I said it was highly unlikely that the guy would become a starter. Half of the guys on PIF's list aren't starters. They're role players who have zero value once they hit free agency and their prices get bid up.

Come on, nate -- that last sentence is an enormous over-statement.

Plus, if even 1/2 are starters, what about this list: Jony Flynn, Ekpe Udoh, Jan Vesely, Damian Lillard, Nerlens Noel, Marcus Smart, Willey Cauley-Stein, Buddy Hield.

That's everyone taken at #6 from 2009 - 2016. Lillard is a starter. Anyone else?

Wiz99 -- you miss my point. In the last 4 drafts, we've traded away our R1 pick 3 times & our R2 pick 4 times. Our net from those moves is a now 34 year old Center, a well below average PF whom no one else wanted, & Tim Frazier.

But there's more -- the other big problem this way of proceeding creates for a team is that you wind up with no trade assets to speak of. It's because we have no trade assets that we are talking about trading yet another R1 pick in a deal for Bledsoe.

In other words, this is a self-perpetuating form of self-limitation. It's certainly not a way to build a team.

[payitforward]

I think I've articulated this in the past, but let me once again put this as (I think) the rules for team-building as I see them:

1. If you have a team full of players paid at their actual market value, i.e. paid what they're worth productivity-wise, you have a mediocre team. No exceptions; nothing else is possible.
Corollary: to succeed you need players on bargain salaries -- the more the better.

2. There are only two kinds of bargain salaries in the NBA: 1) rookie salaries (b/c they are limited by a schedule) & 2) the salaries of true superstars (b/c they are subject to the same maximums as other player salaries). There is one quasi-exception to this: salaries of significantly under-rated players (usually guys whose overall productivity is mainly driven by something other than scoring).

The poster child for a Front Office that understand this is, of course, San Antonio, which has a bunch of bargain salaries: 6 guys on rookie deals, 1 superstar (leonard), & a bunch of guys paid under the value of their productivity (esp. last year -- Dedmon, Lee, Green, Ginobili, Mills).

Thus, any time you take on a player whom you compensate at his market value you limit your upside. Especially if you're acquiring him during his peak years. If you give an asset to acquire that player, of course it's even worse. If the assets you give include access to a bargain salary (i.e. a draft pick, wch gets you a rookie) all the worse. This is why I have a problem w/ Bledsoe.

It's worth going back & reading that para about SA in order to notice that they have 6 guys on rookie salaries. Almost never do they pick in the 'teens of R1 -- let alone in the lottery. This leads to my 3d rule:

3. Maximize your benefit from the draft: for one thing, never trade away a R1 pick, for another rarely trade a R2 pick, & only do it to move up in the draft. & hire the very best talent evaluation people. Based on their record picking players.

[Dark Faze]

Would it be worth going after Nerlens with our first? Yes, he's going to be a free agent, but the market seems timid. We might be able to lock him up on a cheap semi-long term deal. And then that would free us to freely shop around and see what, if anything, we can get for Ian.

[keynote]

Gordon would be a better fit than Bledsoe and Jackson, because he does stretch defenses. That makes the whole team better. Dipo, Waiters, Bledsoe, Jackson - don't.

Well, obviously, Gordon would be the ideal choice -- that's why I listed him as the archetype. The problem is that there aren't many Gordon-types available -- certainly not at below market value (which is all we can realistically afford, given our trade assets). Any distressed asset we acquire is going to have a blemish.

So, given the above, would you recommend?

Dipo - at least he defends. I'd have little to no interest in the others.

I'm confused. Dipo and Waiters *won't* be distressed assets any time soon; I listed them to state that they *weren't* options. IND is at the bottom of their rebuild; unless Dipo pulls a Russell and starts snitching on his teammates, he'll stay in Indy for the next two years or so. Miami's further along, but they have no incentive to trade Waiters for less than FMV.

So: aside from Bledsoe (who may or may not be attainable): are there any potentially distressed assets that we should target?

[Ruzious]

Well, obviously, Gordon would be the ideal choice -- that's why I listed him as the archetype. The problem is that there aren't many Gordon-types available -- certainly not at below market value (which is all we can realistically afford, given our trade assets). Any distressed asset we acquire is going to have a blemish.

So, given the above, would you recommend?

Dipo - at least he defends. I'd have little to no interest in the others.

I'm confused. Dipo and Waiters *won't* be distressed assets any time soon; I listed them to state that they *weren't* options. IND is at the bottom of their rebuild; unless Dipo pulls a Russell and starts snitching on his teammates, he'll stay in Indy for the next two years or so. Miami's further along, but they have no incentive to trade Waiters for less than FMV.

So: aside from Bledsoe (who may or may not be attainable): are there any potentially distressed assets that we should target?

You think you're confused - I've never heard the term distressed assets used the way you're using it.

[payitforward]

The pick is top 55 protected in 2020. Otherwise, the Wizards will not have to convey the pick.

Ah... in that case you are right. They got him for nothing. Then again he didn't help us do anything either. & then he was gone after 1 year.

If acquiring Dudley is an example of Grunfeld making a good move... that's pathetic.

I disagree. Dudley being an expiring contract was a positive given that Washington was trying to free up cap space, and certainly far better than giving Pierce a multi-year deal. Dudley exceeded his value so much when he was with the Wizards that the Suns ended up giving Dudley a 3 year $30 million contract. Dudley was a poor rebounder but certainly was worthy of being in a NBA rotation given that he was a decent team defender and one of the top 3 point shooters in the league. And it was a good move at the end of the day not to retain Dudley since their would not have been enough minutes for Oubre to develop.

Again, Grunfeld has made many questionable moves before and after (before- Alan Anderson/Gary Neal, after - Ian Mahinmi/Andrew Nicholson). But calling this move pathetic in a vacuum is irrational.

Hey, will you stop making all these good points, please -- you're making me look bad!

[payitforward]

Would it be worth going after Nerlens with our first? Yes, he's going to be a free agent, but the market seems timid. We might be able to lock him up on a cheap semi-long term deal. And then that would free us to freely shop around and see what, if anything, we can get for Ian.

You'd have to ask Gambit.... That way you'd get a yes.