2020 Draft

[DCZards]

Although nearly every "all star" is for sure an outstanding player, it's not the case that the guys on all star squads are "the best players in the league." Not at all.

Thus, at guard team giannis had Trae Young, Kemba Walker, Donovan Mitchell & Kyle Lowry. Team LeBron had Harden, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons & Russell Westbrook.

Of course some of those guys are tremendous. But... Eric Bledsoe, Delon Wright, Donte DiVincenzo, Dejounte Murray, Patrick Beverly, & a number of others I won't bore everyone by listing are either having far better years than several all stars or even have been better year in year out than some of them.

What is absolutely true is that the "all star" guards score a whole lot of points, every one of them. I.e. they have great appeal to the casual fan. &... that's who the All Star game is for.

Outside of possibly Bledsoe, I can't think of anyone in boldface above that is likely to have better NBA career than any of the guards on this year's all-star team. Can you?

I'm not even sure that you can argue that players like Wright, Donte and Murray are having better years than any of the all-stars when you take into account their respective roles for their teams...and not simply look at efficiency stats.

[No-Man]

Read on Twitter

[nate33]

I don't know about this. Plenty of good centers are 6-10 or under. Off the top of my head ... Andre Drummond, Emeka Okafor, Amare Stoudamire, Ben Wallace, Etan Thomas, Alonzo Mourning.

Stoudamire and Thomas were horrible defenders. Drummond isn't very good either (and he would certainly fit the extremely long, reasonably mobile prototype). Wallace and Mourning fit the stout, long-armed, hyper-mobile switchable prototype.

I don't know how good defensively Okafor would be in today's game. He was good because he was a superb post defender and a decent rim protector. But that was in a different era with worse spacing. I don't know if he is long enough to stop the pick-and-roll lob in today's game with so much spacing. And he might not be quick enough to switch the pick and roll and stay in front of the guard.

That's the key difference in the modern era. 10 years ago, the pick-and-roll wasn't hard to stop because teams only had 3 good shooters on the floor. The defender who was guarding a non-shooter would always hang back and jam any pick and roll diver. Now, you have to stop the pick and roll with just the two primary defenders in the play. Either your big has to be tall and long enough to guard the penetrating ball handler while simultaneously preventing the lob pass, or your big has to be mobile enough that you can just switch the pick-and-roll and have your big defend the ball handler in space.

[nate33]

He looks quick, strong & creative. Especially for a 19-year old. He has a floater &... a hook! He seems to use his hands well, a creative passer.

Of course, it's hard to evaluate him w/ any certainty, because he's competing against talent that's not at the NBA level. Still.. he's definitely a talented kid! Seems likely he's on Tommy's radar.

Nate's thinking we'll draft & stash in R2 this year -- might well bring Bolmaro into play....

Yeah, he looked fine in that context, but it's hard to evaluate against non-NBA athletes.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

I really like him.

Right now, it looks like we will finish with the 9th or maybe the 15th pick if we make the playoffs. Okongwu will be gone by #9. If we move up from 9 to a top 4 slot, he might be my favorite option. He is just a monster in the paint - strongest guy on the floor every night. And he's only 19! I also like that he's a rock solid FT shooter (74%). He doesn't shoot from the perimeter right now, but chances are, he'll develop some range over time.

The only real wart on his resume is the anemic passing rate. A guy like that isn't going to be a great pick-and-roll dive threat since he is only 6-9, and he is several years away from being a pick-and-pop threat. So that really just leaves him being a mid-post passer and short roller in the Draymond Green/Bam Adebayo mold. But we haven't seen any indication that he has the court awareness and passing ability.

To be fair, Adebayo's college numbers didn't suggest he had any playmaking ability either.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The Wizards could really do well just to move back and select Jalen Smith. His defense and rebounding set him apart.

https://www.nbascoutinglive.com/jalen-smith-scouting-report/
http://www.tankathon.com/players/jalen-smith

I could envision Wall and Beal surrounded by fluid athletes and two-way players in Brown Jr, Bonga/Hachimura, and Smith.

And Smith seems like the kind of person they're looking to add - a hard worker with a great attitude that everyone seems to like. I don't think I've ever seen him get angry at anyone.

Ok CCJ , I think you've got me on board with Smith.

I just think we are so deep right now in the backcourt and on the wing with youth, talent and depth. There is some question with Wall with injury and age. But because of that is why I feel more comfortable backing him with a couple of dependable guys in Ish and Napier. Watching how Wall has progressed in his rehab and the cautious approach the team has taken keeping him out, he looks like he's gonna be ready to go next season. And then when you look at his contract... do we have room for a high profile draft pick at the position? And what does that say to John... We know you've been working so hard to come back and you've done everything we asked and we're confident in you, but we're gonna bring this new guy in, just in case.... I just don't know about the timing of it.

Plus none of these PG really impresses me. They all look like role players off the bench to me. Now I haven't really looked at Hayes, I know he is impressive but also has some question marks. I definitely don't want Anthony. I don't like the way he plays, his decision making, or attitude. Mannion looks like a bust, not athletic enough, can't defend enough, can't shoot good enough. Maxey has good size and length, but lacks quickness, not a great handle or shooting. Hampton is a jack of all trades master of none with durability issues. Halliburton can pass but can't shoot. Etc etc....

Honestly out of all these guys, I wouldn't be surprised if Tre Jones doesn't turn out to be the best of the bunch.


But we need a physical presence inside, IMO. Right now we get that at some level from Mahinmi, but he's going to be gone. That is our most pressing need. And the good thing is this draft is strong with it.

Yes Wiseman is the choice if he's there for us... Unlikely.

But I really like any of Carey, Okongwu, Oturu, or Smith. There's not a whole lot separating these guys. They all have good size and length, toughness, physicality, can defend, rebound, rim protect. They all shoot it well and have upside on the offensive end. I think Carey and Okongwu may be considered the higher upside being slightly younger. But all these guys carry themselves well, and play the right way. The way Smith has emerged is impressive.

With Smith, Maryland always makes me think of drafting Blake and Dixon , and screams marketing ploy (although I loved those guys with us). But hey , if he's good and adds what we need skill-wise and personality-wise, and brings more fans along... What's wrong with that??

I would probably rank them... Carey, Okongwu, Smith, Oturu. But I'm very interested to see how these guys continue to play this season, as well as combine and workouts. This Wednesday night Terps vs Minnesota, Smith vs Oturu!!

[nate33]

Outside of possibly Bledsoe, I can't think of anyone in boldface above that is likely to have better NBA career than any of the guards on this year's all-star team. Can you?

I'm not even sure that you can argue that players like Wright, Donte and Murray are having better years than any of the all-stars when you take into account their respective roles for their teams...and not simply look at efficiency stats.

Don't bother DCZards. It's like talking to a wall.

If he was drafting an NBA team today, PIF would take DiVincenzo over Bradley Beal, and if you dispute him, he'll give us all a lecture on how DiVincenzo wins the battle of possessions and that his extra 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per 100 possessions (against bench players) is more important than the fact that Beal scores 20 more points per 100 possessions while being the focus of the opposition's defense every night.

[payitforward]

Although nearly every "all star" is for sure an outstanding player, it's not the case that the guys on all star squads are "the best players in the league." Not at all.

Thus, at guard team giannis had Trae Young, Kemba Walker, Donovan Mitchell & Kyle Lowry. Team LeBron had Harden, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons & Russell Westbrook.

Of course some of those guys are tremendous. But... Eric Bledsoe, Delon Wright, Donte DiVincenzo, Dejounte Murray, Patrick Beverly, & a number of others I won't bore everyone by listing are either having far better years than several all stars or even have been better year in year out than some of them.

What is absolutely true is that the "all star" guards score a whole lot of points, every one of them. I.e. they have great appeal to the casual fan. &... that's who the All Star game is for.

Outside of possibly Bledsoe, I can't think of anyone in boldface above that is likely to have better NBA career than any of the guards on this year's all-star team. Can you?

I'm not even sure that you can argue that players like Wright, Donte and Murray are having better years than any of the all-stars when you take into account their respective roles for their teams...and not simply look at efficiency stats.

TBH, Zards, I'm getting really boring on this subject, wouldn't you agree? (as to the rest of you... you can stop nodding in agreement right now!)

So... read if you want to, but I'm not offended if you don't, ok?

Spoiler:

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, as they say. The numbers I look at are the numbers that win games -- period. Teams with better numbers of this kind than other teams win more games than those other teams -- period.

If 2 guys play the same number of minutes in a season, & one of them has better numbers of this kind than the other, then he's the better player. Period. Or, more accurately, he had the better season. If he does it more or less regularly over the years you'd conclude that he's the better player.

Above all, when you talk about "role" in this sense, really what you mean is scoring role -- in effect usage. Where you are certainly right is that when guys are called upon to shoot significantly more, their FG% will usually go down. That's a fair point. So a guy who shoots a lot yet shoots at a good average is bringing something extra to the table. & a guy who gets to the line a lot... all the more so.

Look at 3 guys, Patrick Beverly, Donte DiVincenzo, & Devin Booker. They all take the same number of 3's (that surprised me!), & they all shoot the 3 at about the same % (another surprise). They all shoot high 2 pt. %. Beverly is a little lower than the other 2, but it hardly matters because he barely takes any: Donte takes 70% more, & Booker shoots 3.5 times as many of them! But, where Devin Booker really separates himself as a scorer is that he gets to the line 8 times per 40 minutes -- & shoots 92.1% there!!

Devin Booker is a textbook case for your POV. He's averaging almost 30 points per 40 minutes at a 62.4% TS%.

Only thing is, Patrick Beverly is a better player than Booker, & he is having a better year than Booker. & he's a bigger factor in his team's record than Booker. & that's because there are other ways to be outstanding. &, just like scoring, they show up in numbers. & if you give those numbers the weight they merit based on their effect on games, the result is that Patrick Beverly is better this year, a lot better, than Devin Booker -- even though, don't get me wrong, Booker is quite good.

In the time it takes Devin Booker to get 5.5 rebounds, turn the ball over 5 times, & record 1 steal (plus 1.5 possessions), Beverly gets 10 rebounds, turns the ball over 2.3 times & records 2.1 steals (plus 9.8 possessions). Plus whatever other defensive pressure he's put on the opponent that maybe Booker doesn't.

Guys like Patrick Beverly never go to all star games. DiVincenzo is in his 2d year; you don't expect him to have any shot at the all star selection. But, he's been even better overall than Beverly! In fact, he's been incredible -- maybe one of the 10-12 best guards in the league. Which, btw, is also where Delon Wright & Dejounte Murray fit.

Yet... suppose I just sort a table of NBA guards by how many points they score. Nothing else. Oh look... there are all the "all stars" right at the top.

[Ruzious]

Read on Twitter

I really like him.

Right now, it looks like we will finish with the 9th or maybe the 15th pick if we make the playoffs. Okongwu will be gone by #9. If we move up from 9 to a top 4 slot, he might be my favorite option. He is just a monster in the paint - strongest guy on the floor every night. And he's only 19! I also like that he's a rock solid FT shooter (74%). He doesn't shoot from the perimeter right now, but chances are, he'll develop some range over time.

The only real wart on his resume is the anemic passing rate. A guy like that isn't going to be a great pick-and-roll dive threat since he is only 6-9, and he is several years away from being a pick-and-pop threat. So that really just leaves him being a mid-post passer and short roller in the Draymond Green/Bam Adebayo mold. But we haven't seen any indication that he has the court awareness and passing ability.

To be fair, Adebayo's college numbers didn't suggest he had any playmaking ability either.

Okongwu's simply the best fit for the Wiz - I'd love to see the Wiz with him - particularly how his defense improves the team defense. As I've said, his reactions on defense is what really stands out to me - as close to Ben Wallace in that regard as I can recall. And it'll be interesting to see what his offensive game is like in a few years - he's got great hands and catch radius, so he's going to be a good interior scorer, but it's on the perimeter that we might see the biggest improvement. One negative - his motor isn't always on, but that could be just from being a teenager who needs some help in his diet/nutrition.

[Jamaaliver]

Okongwu's simply the best fit for the Wiz - I'd love to see the Wiz with him - particularly how his defense improves the team defense. As I've said, his reactions on defense is what really stands out to me - as close to Ben Wallace in that regard as I can recall. And it'll be interesting to see what his offensive game is like in a few years - he's got great hands and catch radius, so he's going to be a good interior scorer, but it's on the perimeter that we might see the biggest improvement.

Can Okongwu share the court with another non shooter like Rui?

I was told months ago that Thomas Bryant was a core piece at Center for the Wizards. Has that changed? Can Bryant and Okongwu share a front court together?

Does any of that even matter?

[nate33]

Okongwu's simply the best fit for the Wiz - I'd love to see the Wiz with him - particularly how his defense improves the team defense. As I've said, his reactions on defense is what really stands out to me - as close to Ben Wallace in that regard as I can recall. And it'll be interesting to see what his offensive game is like in a few years - he's got great hands and catch radius, so he's going to be a good interior scorer, but it's on the perimeter that we might see the biggest improvement.

Can Okongwu share the court with another non shooter like Rui?

I was told months ago that Thomas Bryant was a core piece at Center for the Wizards. Has that changed? Can Bryant and Okongwu share a front court together?

Does any of that even matter?

Rui will be a good enough shooter in time. I'm not too worried about that.

I wouldn't characterize Bryant as a core piece just yet. It's possible that he improves enough to be a core piece, but it's also possible that he never gets good enough defensively to anchor a contending defense. In that case, he would be a backup. He's certainly not so good at the moment that we can afford to pass on a potential starting-caliber defensive center.

One thing about the Wizards is that, when Wall comes back, we will have a big, strong backcourt - particularly if Troy Brown becomes a combo guard over time. With a big backcourt, it's much more feasible to run a switch-everything defense, and Okongwu is the right type of center to fit that scheme.

[Ruzious]

Okongwu's simply the best fit for the Wiz - I'd love to see the Wiz with him - particularly how his defense improves the team defense. As I've said, his reactions on defense is what really stands out to me - as close to Ben Wallace in that regard as I can recall. And it'll be interesting to see what his offensive game is like in a few years - he's got great hands and catch radius, so he's going to be a good interior scorer, but it's on the perimeter that we might see the biggest improvement.

Can Okongwu share the court with another non shooter like Rui?

I was told months ago that Thomas Bryant was a core piece at Center for the Wizards. Has that changed? Can Bryant and Okongwu share a front court together?

Does any of that even matter?

Players evolve. 2 or 3 years from now, Bryant, Okongwu, and Rui might have 3 point range. What we do know is we need frontcourt defense and 2-way players. The best 2-way player in the game still doesn't have a jump shot any better than Ok's, and his team is 47-8.

[payitforward]

Outside of possibly Bledsoe, I can't think of anyone in boldface above that is likely to have better NBA career than any of the guards on this year's all-star team. Can you?

I'm not even sure that you can argue that players like Wright, Donte and Murray are having better years than any of the all-stars when you take into account their respective roles for their teams...and not simply look at efficiency stats.

Don't bother DCZards. It's like talking to a wall.

If he was drafting an NBA team today, PIF would take DiVincenzo over Bradley Beal, and if you dispute him, he'll give us all a lecture on how DiVincenzo wins the battle of possessions and that his extra 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per 100 possessions (against bench players) is more important than the fact that Beal scores 20 more points per 100 possessions while being the focus of the opposition's defense every night.

I would never do a thing like that -- never! I can't believe you'd say that about me; I'm really hurt.

As to "talking to a wall," some of these recent walls are even better than the Eastern European lamp posts we were just discussing.

Plus, I remind you that walls are really good on defense -- I'm not talking about John Wall, however, or not in particular, as johns are known to be bad defenders.

As to Beal, a little closer analysis please! The reason he's the focus of the opposition's defense is that he scores so many points, right? So, if he'd score a little less, the defense would give him more space -- which would make it easier for him to score more. At least that's what the numbers say, & I'll leave it at that, ok?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

NBA DRAFT ROOM UPDATE NOTES - 02/20/20

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/2019/03/2020-nba-mock-draft-update.html

[SUPERBALLMAN]

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2020-nba-mock-draft.html

In addition to Okongwu (3) and Hayes (7) moving up....

Ball down to 5
Mannion down to 27
Green down to 30
Reed falls to 2nd round

[payitforward]

Looks like not a single guy we've focused on is still available to us at e.t. #9 according to nbadraftroom's mock. That's unless the ping pong balls do us a favor anyway....

OTOH, were we to trade down with the Celtic for the #17 & #27, we can perhaps take Jalen Smith & either Tyler Bey or Josh Green. Perhaps we can get their #46 out of them as well, in which case maybe we'd get Makur Maker at #38, & we'd pick Tillman with the lower pick. Doesn't sound too bad, but... not likely to happen either.

[Shoe]

Wiseman to Washington. I think this guy can be the cornerstone for a consistent 50 win team. He could be a healthier Embiid, then again he might not have the drive to be a franchise player.

[gambitx777]

I think Boston is a good target to pick up some extra pick bit maybe not so much a trade back but I wouldn't be opposed.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Daniel Oturu looked good today...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/oturu-leads-minnesota-past-northwestern-83-57/2020/02/23/7a610742-5689-11ea-8efd-0f904bdd8057_story.html

Daniel Oturu had 22 points and 12 rebounds and Minnesota beat Northwestern 83-57 on Sunday.

Oturu, one of the top big men in the Big Ten, blocked three shots and shot 3 for 5 from 3-point range in addition to his 15th double-double. The 6-foot-10 sophomore entered Sunday as the second-leading scorer in the league with 19.6 points per game and the top rebounder with 11.4 per game.

Oturu’s one-handed dunk gave the Gophers a 55-34 lead with 13:21 remaining.

The Gophers ended the first half on a 7-0 run for a 44-28 lead. Oturu had 13 points on 5-of-6 shooting and eight rebounds. Northwestern didn’t score for the final 2:42 before halftime.


UP NEXT

Minnesota hosts No. 7 Maryland on Wednesday.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

A good article on Okongwu....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharycohen/2020/02/16/uscs-onyeka-okongwu-is-the-2020-nba-drafts-biggest-game-wrecker/#534a5ea17015