2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[prime1time]

I also find it very interesting that no one wants to talk about the Michigan vs. Illinois game. Wagner was 1-9 and Michigan looked dismal. In two game this season Michigan never got going, and Wagner was unable to pull them out of the slump. As efficient as Wagner is when Michigan's offense is clicking, it is dissapointing that he doesn't have the offensive skillset to carry his teams offense when they need it. The more I watch Wagner the harder it is for me to project him. We have examples of college players that could carry offenses in college - guys like Tayshaun Prince, Evan Turner and Andre Igoudala - not even be good enough to be 3rd options on championship teams. Each of those guys did way more offensively in college than Wagner and Prince and Iggy were also exceptional defenders, guarding and doing well against the other teams best wing player. So the question with Wagner is why is he good enough to be on their level. To put it another way, what makes Wagner better than the average run of the mill SF that championship contenders can find.

[Ruzious]

I also find it very interesting that no one wants to talk about the Michigan vs. Illinois game. Wagner was 1-9 and Michigan looked dismal. In two game this season Michigan never got going, and Wagner was unable to pull them out of the slump. As efficient as Wagner is when Michigan's offense is clicking, it is dissapointing that he doesn't have the offensive skillset to carry his teams offense when they need it. The more I watch Wagner the harder it is for me to project him. We have examples of college players that could carry offenses in college - guys like Tayshaun Prince, Evan Turner and Andre Igoudala - not even be good enough to be 3rd options on championship teams. Each of those guys did way more offensively in college than Wagner and Prince and Iggy were also exceptional defenders, guarding and doing well against the other teams best wing player. So the question with Wagner is why is he good enough to be on their level. To put it another way, what makes Wagner better than the average run of the mill SF that championship contenders can find.

Fwiw, the last time I talked about Wagner, I pointed out he likely won't be a player who creates his own offense in the NBA, and I doubted that his excellent college defense would translate to the NBA. He's still a good prospect - but not someone I'd target for the Wiz.

[NatP4]

I’m really curious about what Queta would look like in a spaced out NBA setting. Right now he’s playing a ton of post up basketball, but his real strength as a prospect is his rim protection and rebounding. He might be the best rim protector in the country after Mobley. per 40 numbers for this season are getting pretty ridiculous. 20.8 points 13.7 rebounds 4 blocks 4 assists 1.6 steals. He’s been a pretty consistent >60% TS guy through his 3 seasons in college. He is 2nd in college basketball in DBPM behind Wagner. Has that insane 7’5 wingspan. Pretty solid sample size as a 67% free throw shooter. Going to be 22 years old on draft night though. The age and strength of competition is scaring teams off I’m sure, but he’s just as good of a prospect as the majority of the players mocked in the 6-12 range IMO.

Everything about him reminds me of Clint Capela with some added playmaking and vision and a little bit better free throw shooting.

[NatP4]

Duarte is Gary Harris/young Wes Mathews. I’m sure he’ll fall to 25ish and some team is getting an absolute steal.

[Ruzious]

I’m really curious about what Queta would look like in a spaced out NBA setting. Right now he’s playing a ton of post up basketball, but his real strength as a prospect is his rim protection and rebounding. He might be the best rim protector in the country after Mobley. per 40 numbers for this season are getting pretty ridiculous. 20.8 points 13.7 rebounds 4 blocks 4 assists 1.6 steals. He’s been a pretty consistent >60% TS guy through his 3 seasons in college. He is 2nd in college basketball in DBPM behind Wagner. Has that insane 7’5 wingspan. Pretty solid sample size as a 67% free throw shooter. Going to be 22 years old on draft night though. The age and strength of competition is scaring teams off I’m sure, but he’s just as good of a prospect as the majority of the players mocked in the 6-12 range IMO.

Everything about him reminds me of Clint Capela with some added playmaking and vision and a little bit better free throw shooting.

I definitely gotta watch more of him on youtube - seems to be under the radar. He even had 6 assists last game. He's feasted on Nevada (Steve Alford) and Boise State the last 4 games. Made a lot of foul shots lately and looks like he's improving his FT% - 32/41 in the last 5 games (78%). Love his defensive stats.

[Ruzious]

He's klnda in the Ayton mold - great build - though he doesn't seem to jump quickly and will need more time. Very hard to tell with him going against smaller lesser athletes. He seems like a very good athlete but without great body control. Looks like he'll go for every pump fake - hunting blocks - he jumps even before the shooter goes up - and NBA veterans will take advantage of that. I expect he'll need a year in the G League, but there's good potential there. Really like his passing ability and willingness to pass.

[payitforward]

...All the praise goes to the flashy point guards, but there are some REALLY good undervalued players that contribute to Ws like Devonte Graham and Monte Morris that slipped into the 2nd round. I’m starting to think that scouts seriously underrate big 12 guards, and not just the top guys like Haliburton, but guys like Desmond Bane&Jevon Carter.

Oh man, did I ever want Monte Morris, who seemed like an absolute lock to be a very good NBA player -- guy went #51 in '17 if I recollect correctly. & Zards & I both liked Jevon Carter, picked near the top of R2 in '18.

(Speakking of those low value late R2 picks, I imagine everyone got a good taste of what DeAnthony Melton can do from last night's game?

Man oh man, is this new Memphis FO good!

[payitforward]

I’m really curious about what Queta would look like in a spaced out NBA setting. Right now he’s playing a ton of post up basketball, but his real strength as a prospect is his rim protection and rebounding. He might be the best rim protector in the country after Mobley. per 40 numbers for this season are getting pretty ridiculous. 20.8 points 13.7 rebounds 4 blocks 4 assists 1.6 steals. He’s been a pretty consistent >60% TS guy through his 3 seasons in college. He is 2nd in college basketball in DBPM behind Wagner. Has that insane 7’5 wingspan. Pretty solid sample size as a 67% free throw shooter. Going to be 22 years old on draft night though. The age and strength of competition is scaring teams off I’m sure, but he’s just as good of a prospect as the majority of the players mocked in the 6-12 range IMO.

Everything about him reminds me of Clint Capela with some added playmaking and vision and a little bit better free throw shooting.

I definitely gotta watch more of him on youtube - seems to be under the radar. He even had 6 assists last game. He's feasted on Nevada (Steve Alford) and Boise State the last 4 games. Made a lot of foul shots lately and looks like he's improving his FT% - 32/41 in the last 5 games (78%). Love his defensive stats.

I pointed out Neemas Queta in the run up to the 2018 draft -- as I'm sure you all remember (not!).

[NatP4]

Duarte with 23 on 12 shots last night.

Averaging 19 points per36 on 67% TS.

[Ruzious]

I’m really curious about what Queta would look like in a spaced out NBA setting. Right now he’s playing a ton of post up basketball, but his real strength as a prospect is his rim protection and rebounding. He might be the best rim protector in the country after Mobley. per 40 numbers for this season are getting pretty ridiculous. 20.8 points 13.7 rebounds 4 blocks 4 assists 1.6 steals. He’s been a pretty consistent >60% TS guy through his 3 seasons in college. He is 2nd in college basketball in DBPM behind Wagner. Has that insane 7’5 wingspan. Pretty solid sample size as a 67% free throw shooter. Going to be 22 years old on draft night though. The age and strength of competition is scaring teams off I’m sure, but he’s just as good of a prospect as the majority of the players mocked in the 6-12 range IMO.

Everything about him reminds me of Clint Capela with some added playmaking and vision and a little bit better free throw shooting.

I definitely gotta watch more of him on youtube - seems to be under the radar. He even had 6 assists last game. He's feasted on Nevada (Steve Alford) and Boise State the last 4 games. Made a lot of foul shots lately and looks like he's improving his FT% - 32/41 in the last 5 games (78%). Love his defensive stats.

I pointed out Neemas Queta in the run up to the 2018 draft -- as I'm sure you all remember (not!).

Ohhh sawry, I can't give you credit. I did a search and only saw people mentioning him in the run to the 2019 draft. YoungWizzie and Dat get the official credit for naming him a 1st round talent.

[doclinkin]

$^$%$#%# Basketball reference pay index is now behind a paywall of 8 bucks a month. Per sport. So bout $200 a year for NBA plus NCAA ball. And I don't even think Jon Givony's database is available at ESPN, I used to use his stats at DraftXpress. I can do some of the work via Kenpom.com for $20 a year, but man. Greedheads. Shoot I didn't even mind the ads at B-Ref, even clicked on one or two over the years.

Anyway: Charles Bassey of Western Kentucky and Moussa Cisse of Memphis have caught my eye. Cisse will need developing but there is some real talent there.

Also: how is Memphis still a defensive juggernaut, even after losing Precious Achiuwa and James Wiseman.

Let's just hire Penny Hardaway as our coach. Lil Penny is doing some work on the bench.

[payitforward]

I definitely gotta watch more of him on youtube - seems to be under the radar. He even had 6 assists last game. He's feasted on Nevada (Steve Alford) and Boise State the last 4 games. Made a lot of foul shots lately and looks like he's improving his FT% - 32/41 in the last 5 games (78%). Love his defensive stats.

I pointed out Neemas Queta in the run up to the 2018 draft -- as I'm sure you all remember (not!).

Ohhh sawry, I can't give you credit. I did a search and only saw people mentioning him in the run to the 2019 draft. YoungWizzie and Dat get the official credit for naming him a 1st round talent.

Duh, it was the 2019 draft, when he put his name in & then withdrew. I'm sure I was NOT the first to mention him, however. At the same time, it wasn't about the first round -- did you search the R2 thread for 2019?

[Ruzious]

I pointed out Neemas Queta in the run up to the 2018 draft -- as I'm sure you all remember (not!).

Ohhh sawry, I can't give you credit. I did a search and only saw people mentioning him in the run to the 2019 draft. YoungWizzie and Dat get the official credit for naming him a 1st round talent.

Duh, it was the 2019 draft, when he put his name in & then withdrew. I'm sure I was NOT the first to mention him, however. At the same time, it wasn't about the first round -- did you search the R2 thread for 2019?

I searched for all posts in the forum that had Queta in it.

You can file an appeal to Wiz Forum Draft Experts Rules Committee.

[payitforward]

Ruz, I think he changed his name. That must be it....

[payitforward]

First mention -- by dat (n surprise):
https://forums.realgm.com/boardsviewtopic.php?f=35&t=1760909&p=74854389&hilit=Neemias#p74854389

(Why is that not a live link?)

edited to put in full domain....

[payitforward]

I must have forgotten all about that when I brought him up in 2020:

https://forums.realgm.com/boardsviewtopic.php?f=35&t=1923576&p=81745149&hilit=Neemias#p81745149

(Don't understand why I cn't make it live w/o the domain....)

[NatP4]

Next 8 games:

Clippers
Grizzlies
Sixers
Bucks (B2B)
Bucks
Kings
Jazz (B2B)
Nets

Looks like 7-8 losses to me which puts us right around the 3rd or 4th worst record in the league. Beal trade discussion probably ramps up again. We probably go back to discussing the top of the board.

Big matchup tonight between Oklahoma State and Baylor. Cunningham VS Mitchell&Butler.

[payitforward]

As well, you glide over the fact that there was no real reason to think that Bey would be on the board at #18 & little reason to expect Tillman to be there at #31 -- so one can't really view the trade as one made to secure these two players. You'd have to have 3 players in mind at each spot.

Right, I had two in Achiuwa and Bey, who were both available then. With future sweetener I would have been happy with either. But disagree on Tillman. Pick# 31 is the first pick in the 2nd round. If Tillman was projected to fall to 2nd (he was) then he was ours. Funny though I will quote this line next time you pull out your look-back-machine whining:

IOW, it's hindsight & only hindsight that gives any impact to this particular trade-down idea.

Yes a pick trade works best if you select a guy who fits your team and is on the same tier as the others available, then you trade with the team who wants him -IF- a guy you like falls to their pick. Still you squeeze them to get a little extra juice from the deal.

As for who falls or doesn't fall, players fall every year. Deni was a prime example of that. Tyrese had knocks on him based on his size and unconventional athletic profile. I doubt he fell solely because his agent said not to draft him (frankly that sounds like an agent trying to make it all sound good, plus a bit of happy talk for the team that landed him). Yes if a player fails to give medical examination to teams, then okay you can influence the selection. But players get drafted by teams they don't work out for. Even by teams they say they don't want to play for. Then the ball goes up and they play.

All good points, doc.

I wouldn't have picked Haliburton over Deni -- saying that would definitely be hindsight! Nor, of course, is it nearly time yet to draw conclusions about any of these guys.

As you know, I wanted to trade down to get the Celtics #14, #26, & #47 (or a R2 pick next year, which might have been more likely). But, if we'd done that, & then Deni was on the board when #9 came up, I'm sure I would have questioned my decision.

I just pulled up nbadraftroom's last 2020 mock draft, & they had Saddiq Bey going at #12 -- as well, I had misremembered them putting XT at #26, but you were right: in fact, they had him at #36 -- right after... Paul Reed!

[doclinkin]

As you know, I wanted to trade down to get the Celtics #14, #26, & #47 (or a R2 pick next year, which might have been more likely). But, if we'd done that, & then Deni was on the board when #9 came up, I'm sure I would have questioned my decision.

The thing is, most pick swaps are draft night trades. So you don't have to have done it in advance.

I fussed about the Deni pick, I would have been holding Haliburton as the best player available, though my first choice was to trade up for Okongwu. Beyond that I was agnostic on every player other than Tilman, who my searches had ID'ed as a stealthily productive freshman. (After giving weight to all the research that says, the younger a player is when they are productive, the higher will be their ultimate development). Being as I didn't have strong feelings at the spot, I would be convinceable if someone offered me something, if I could shave the %'s in my favor to 'win' the trade. To do so you look for places where teams are undervaluing their own assets and push hard on that front.

Ultimately I feel like teams overrate raw athletic ability, and current year lottery picks. And teams underrate savvy defense and future picks, especially in the far future. These are places where you can steal value. This is one area where I differ with your concept of trading down 1-for-3 every year:

The picks that are impossible to overrate are those rare generational talents. You could have traded every draft pick you ever had for LeBron, and still he would have been worth it. Ditto Duncan, Hakeem, MJ, Kareem, Shaq, and a handful of others. But It is nigh impossible to land those picks, you have to get lucky in the right year.

Luck by nature is flexible, how do you give yourself more chances at the luck of generational talent? The answer does not lie in collecting many more bites at the apple in a single draft, especially late. Occasionally a Kawhi or Giannis or PG13 will slip. Yes. And you can build a damn good team with them. But in general the all world talent has been identified early, and is only available at the top of the draft. And you have limited roster spots, limited play minutes, limited patience, limited developmental time. Players who are selected late tend not to get as many opportunities to develop as players higher up the draft. Not fair but true.

So. When you have a team who approaches you that is eager for a player who has fallen to your draft spot, to my mind you want to listen to what they are trying to give up. And if you can leverage their eagerness for an impact RIGHT NOW, you see if you can get value (in players, in draft picks) but to me a key mission would be to pry loose underprotected future picks.

Granted, I have the luxury of patience. I have been a fan of a suck team and know I am going to be here for the long haul despite the years of past and future suck. My ass is on the sofa, it is not in line to be fired as a fan. BUT. If a team had the luxury of long range vision, they could set themselves up for a dynasty by EVERY YEAR trading for future picks and pick swaps, as high up the draft they can get. The concept is less about trading back to sift the sand for a single nugget of gold that slips. Even if you find the guy, you might not have the patience to develop him. But the higher up your trade will land you in future years, the more options you have INCLUDING trading down, in years where the value has a wider spread, so long as you can pick up a future asset. (Okay I will trade you my #9 pick, but that's a lottery pick, you expect to be good, --I want any future picks you trade to us to be unprotected).

One way to do so is to identify a team like Dallas that relies on ONE guy, and who has a good coach right now, but one who may be losing the ear of the players or front office. (How much are Houston's draft picks worth right now for instance?) Give me 'win now' teams that rely heavily on a single high usage player, and to me their future picks may prove to be undervalued. Look at teams with impatient fanbase or a front office that may break up.

Bucks, Giannis. (really? Coach Bud is on the hotseat?)
Lakers, LeBJ.
Denver, Jokic. (Donelly interviewed for the Wizards job, is he looking around?)

You can look around the league and see a few. Houston is the most recent example. The Nets seem volatile, built heavily around 3 mercurial stars, with injury history.

So. At that point I am saying, okay, whatever team is willing to trade up, I am willing to listen. If they like a guy, they may make a push, and may push their luck directly into my pocket. I know I can get good players later in the draft (by looking for defensive stalwarts, and statistically productive players who are being overlooked). But I will take every chance I get for future top picks, depending on how sweet the offer in front of me. How many picks, how deep into the future, as opposed to how many picks THIS year.

Anyway, just a thought.

[NatP4]

This Baylor-Oklahoma state game is rough. Butler&Mitchell are just dominating. Cunningham has been so locked down that he just quit looking for the ball and started hiding in the corner. He didn’t get an open look in the entire half. 2-8 shooting. Played all 20 minutes. Really struggled to create any space against good athletes.

Feels like Butler has deflected or stolen every single pass. He has Chris Paul instincts on defense, it’s insane. Just rips people. He also had a poster dunk. In total control as always, looks like a NBA guard playing college basketball.

Butler finished with 23-3-5-3 on 14 shots (4-7) from 3. Controlled the game as always.